A counterfactual study of the Charge of the Light Brigade

We use a mathematical model to perform a counterfactual study of the 1854 Charge of the Light Brigade. We first calibrate the model with historical data so that it reproduces the actual charge’s outcome. We then adjust the model to see how that outcome might have changed if the Heavy Brigade had joined the charge, and/or if the charge had targeted the Russian forces on the heights instead of those in the valley. The results suggest that all of the counterfactual attacks would have led to heavier British casualties. However, a charge by both brigades along the valley might plausibly have yielded a British victory

Clinical prediction models assessing response to radiotherapy for rectal cancer: protocol for a systematic review.

BackgroundRectal cancer has a high prevalence. The standard of care for management of localised disease involves major surgery and/or chemoradiotherapy, but these modalities are sometimes associated with mortality and morbidity. The notion of 'watch and wait' has therefore emerged and offers an organ-sparing approach to patients after administering a less invasive initial treatment, such as X-ray brachytherapy (Papillon technique). It is thus important to evaluate how likely patients are to respond to such therapies, to develop patient-tailored treatment pathways. We propose a systematic review to identify published clinical prediction models of the response of rectal cancer to treatment that includes radiotherapy and here present our protocol.MethodsIncluded studies will develop multivariable clinical prediction models which assess response to treatment and overall survival of adult patients who have been diagnosed with any stage of rectal cancer and have received radiotherapy treatment with curative intent. Cohort studies and randomised controlled trials will be included. The primary outcome will be the occurrence of salvage surgery at 1 year after treatment. Secondary outcomes include salavage surgery at at any reported time point, the predictive accuracy of models, the quality of the developed models and the feasibility of using the model in clinical practice. Ovid MEDLINE, PubMed, Cochrane Library, EMBASE and CINAHL will be searched from inception to 24 February 2022. Keywords and phrases related to rectal cancer, radiotherapy and prediction models will be used. Studies will be selected once the deduplication, title, abstract and full-text screening process have been completed by two independent reviewers. The PRISMA-P checklist will be followed. A third reviewer will resolve any disagreement. The data extraction form will be pilot-tested using a representative 5% sample of the studies reviewed. The CHARMS checklist will be implemented. Risk of bias in each study will be assessed using the PROBAST tool. A narrative synthesis will be performed and if sufficient data are identified, meta-analysis will be undertaken as described in Debray et al. DISCUSSION: This systematic review will identify factors that predict response to the treatment protocol. Any gaps for potential development of new clinical prediction models will be highlighted.Trial registrationCRD42022277704

Mevalonate Biosynthesis Intermediates Are Key Regulators of Innate Immunity in Bovine Endometritis

Metabolic changes can influence inflammatory responses to bacteria. To examine whether localized manipulation of the mevalonate pathway impacts innate immunity, we exploited a unique mucosal disease model, endometritis, where inflammation is a consequence of innate immunity. IL responses to pathogenic bacteria and LPS were modulated in bovine endometrial cell and organ cultures by small molecules that target the mevalonate pathway. Treatment with multiple statins, bisphosphonates, squalene synthase inhibitors, and small interfering RNA showed that inhibition of farnesyl-diphosphate farnesyl transferase (squalene synthase), but not 3-hydroxy-3-methylglutaryl-CoA reductase or farnesyl diphosphate synthase, reduced endometrial organ and cellular inflammatory responses to pathogenic bacteria and LPS. Although manipulation of the mevalonate pathway reduced cellular cholesterol, impacts on inflammation were independent of cholesterol concentration as cholesterol depletion using cyclodextrins did not alter inflammatory responses. Treatment with the isoprenoid mevalonate pathway-intermediates, farnesyl diphosphate and geranylgeranyl diphosphate, also reduced endometrial cellular inflammatory responses to LPS. These data imply that manipulating the mevalonate pathway regulates innate immunity within the endometrium, and that isoprenoids are regulatory molecules in this process, knowledge that could be exploited for novel therapeutic strategies

Critical Race Theory and Education: racism and anti-racism in educational theory and praxis

What is Critical Race Theory (CRT) and what does it offer educational researchers and practitioners outside the US? This paper addresses these questions by examining the recent history of antiracist research and policy in the UK. In particular, the paper argues that conventional forms of antiracism have proven unable to keep pace with the development of increasingly racist and exclusionary education polices that operate beneath a veneer of professed tolerance and diversity. In particular, contemporary antiracism lacks clear statements of principle and theory that risk reinventing the wheel with each new study; it is increasingly reduced to a meaningless slogan; and it risks appropriation within a reformist “can do” perspective dominated by the de-politicized and managerialist language of school effectiveness and improvement. In contrast, CRT offers a genuinely radical and coherent set of approaches that could revitalize critical research in education across a range of inquiries, not only in self-consciously "multicultural" studies. The paper reviews the developing terrain of CRT in education, identifying its key defining elements and the conceptual tools that characterise the work. CRT in education is a fast changing and incomplete project but it can no longer be ignored by the academy beyond North America

Education policy as an act of white supremacy: whiteness, critical race theory and education reform

The paper presents an empirical analysis of education policy in England that is informed by recent developments in US critical theory. In particular, I draw on ‘whiteness studies’ and the application of Critical Race Theory (CRT). These perspectives offer a new and radical way of conceptualising the role of racism in education. Although the US literature has paid little or no regard to issues outside North America, I argue that a similar understanding of racism (as a multifaceted, deeply embedded, often taken-for-granted aspect of power relations) lies at the heart of recent attempts to understand institutional racism in the UK. Having set out the conceptual terrain in the first half of the paper, I then apply this approach to recent changes in the English education system to reveal the central role accorded the defence (and extension) of race inequity. Finally, the paper touches on the question of racism and intentionality: although race inequity may not be a planned and deliberate goal of education policy neither is it accidental. The patterning of racial advantage and inequity is structured in domination and its continuation represents a form of tacit intentionality on the part of white powerholders and policy makers. It is in this sense that education policy is an act of white supremacy. Following others in the CRT tradition, therefore, the paper’s analysis concludes that the most dangerous form of ‘white supremacy’ is not the obvious and extreme fascistic posturing of small neonazi groups, but rather the taken-for-granted routine privileging of white interests that goes unremarked in the political mainstream

A Reappraisal of Children’s ‘Potential’

What does it mean for a child to fulfil his or her potential? This article explores the contexts and implications of the much-used concept of potential in educational discourses. We claim that many of the popular, political and educational uses of the term in relation to childhood have a problematic blind spot: interpersonality, and the necessary coexistence for the concept to be receivable of all children’s ‘potentials’. Rather than advocating abandoning the term—a futile gesture given its emotive force—we argue that the concept of children’s potential must be profoundly rethought to be workable as a philosophical notion in education. In an era marked by the unspoken assumption that ‘unlimited potential’ is always a good thing, we argue that it might be necessary to think about the limitations of the notion of individual potential; namely, the moment when it comes into contact with other people’s projects. We propose a conceptualisation of potential as the negotiated, situated, ever-changing creation of a group of individuals, in a process marked by conflict, and which remains essentially difficult.This is the final version of the article. It first appeared from Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11217-016-9508-

Solvent effects on the photochemical and fluorescence properties of zinc phthalocyanine derivatives

The effects of solvents on the singlet oxygen, photobleaching and fluorescence quantum yields for zinc phthalocyanine (ZnPc) and its derivatives; (pyridino)zinc phthalocyanine ((py)ZnPc), zinc octaphenoxyphthalocyanine (ZnOPPc) and zinc octaestronephthalocyanine (ZnOEPc), is presented. The effects of the solvents on the ground state spectra are also discussed. The largest red shift of the Q band was observed in aromatic solvents, the highest shift being observed for 1-chloronaphthalene. Higher singlet fluorescence quantum yields were observed in THF for ZnPc and ZnOPPC. Also in the same solvent phototransformation rather than photobleaching was observed for ZnOPPc. Split Q band in the emission and excitation spectra of ZnOPPc was observed in some solvents and this is explained in terms of the lowering of symmetry following excitation

Prevalence of Disorders Recorded in Dogs Attending Primary-Care Veterinary Practices in England

Purebred dog health is thought to be compromised by an increasing occurence of inherited diseases but inadequate prevalence data on common disorders have hampered efforts to prioritise health reforms. Analysis of primary veterinary practice clinical data has been proposed for reliable estimation of disorder prevalence in dogs. Electronic patient record (EPR) data were collected on 148,741 dogs attending 93 clinics across central and south-eastern England. Analysis in detail of a random sample of EPRs relating to 3,884 dogs from 89 clinics identified the most frequently recorded disorders as otitis externa (prevalence 10.2%, 95% CI: 9.1-11.3), periodontal disease (9.3%, 95% CI: 8.3-10.3) and anal sac impaction (7.1%, 95% CI: 6.1-8.1). Using syndromic classification, the most prevalent body location affected was the head-and-neck (32.8%, 95% CI: 30.7-34.9), the most prevalent organ system affected was the integument (36.3%, 95% CI: 33.9-38.6) and the most prevalent pathophysiologic process diagnosed was inflammation (32.1%, 95% CI: 29.8-34.3). Among the twenty most-frequently recorded disorders, purebred dogs had a significantly higher prevalence compared with crossbreds for three: otitis externa (P = 0.001), obesity (P = 0.006) and skin mass lesion (P = 0.033), and popular breeds differed significantly from each other in their prevalence for five: periodontal disease (P = 0.002), overgrown nails (P = 0.004), degenerative joint disease (P = 0.005), obesity (P = 0.001) and lipoma (P = 0.003). These results fill a crucial data gap in disorder prevalence information and assist with disorder prioritisation. The results suggest that, for maximal impact, breeding reforms should target commonly-diagnosed complex disorders that are amenable to genetic improvement and should place special focus on at-risk breeds. Future studies evaluating disorder severity and duration will augment the usefulness of the disorder prevalence information reported herein

Response to early generation genomic selection for yield in wheat

We investigated increasing genetic gain for grain yield using early generation genomic selection (GS). A training set of 1,334 elite wheat breeding lines tested over three field seasons was used to generate Genomic Estimated Breeding Values (GEBVs) for grain yield under irrigated conditions applying markers and three different prediction methods: (1) Genomic Best Linear Unbiased Predictor (GBLUP), (2) GBLUP with the imputation of missing genotypic data by Ridge Regression BLUP (rrGBLUP_imp), and (3) Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Space (RKHS) a.k.a. Gaussian Kernel (GK). F2 GEBVs were generated for 1,924 individuals from 38 biparental cross populations between 21 parents selected from the training set. Results showed that F2 GEBVs from the different methods were not correlated. Experiment 1 consisted of selecting F2s with the highest average GEBVs and advancing them to form genomically selected bulks and make intercross populations aiming to combine favorable alleles for yield. F4:6 lines were derived from genomically selected bulks, intercrosses, and conventional breeding methods with similar numbers from each. Results of field-testing for Experiment 1 did not find any difference in yield with genomic compared to conventional selection. Experiment 2 compared the predictive ability of the different GEBV calculation methods in F2 using a set of single plant-derived F2:4 lines from randomly selected F2 plants. Grain yield results from Experiment 2 showed a significant positive correlation between observed yields of F2:4 lines and predicted yield GEBVs of F2 single plants from GK (the predictive ability of 0.248, P < 0.001) and GBLUP (0.195, P < 0.01) but no correlation with rrGBLUP_imp. Results demonstrate the potential for the application of GS in early generations of wheat breeding and the importance of using the appropriate statistical model for GEBV calculation, which may not be the same as the best model for inbreds