Sustainable rice cultivation in the deep flooded zones of the Vietnamese Mekong Delta

This paper explains how the management of the full-dyke system in the deep flooded zones of the Vietnamese Mekong Delta affects rice cultivation, and outlines how alternative dyke management strategies could offer more sustainable adaptations in the face of future environmental threats. The current management of the ‘full-dyke’ network has been successful in promoting triple-cropping rice cultivation, but this practice has prevented sediment deposition on the land surface. River-borne sediments deposited on the delta land surface have high economic value because they are (i) rich in nutrients (potentially 26 million USD/yr of free fertiliser to An Giang Province) and can (ii) help to maintain the Mekong Delta land above sealevel. Without a continuing supply of sediment to the delta, triple-cropping paddies may not continue to be sustainable or profitable for the majority of rice farmers over the next 10 to 20 years. The economic value of sediment as a free fertiliser is particularly important to poor farmers, as without sediment, they run a significant risk of debt due to fluctuations in rice, fertiliser, and other input prices. With incoming loads now declining, sediment must be managed carefully as a resource. Our projections show that the best use of the remaining sediment resource can be achieved by allowing full paddy flooding only in years of high sediment potential, and this would greatly increase the sustainability of rice agriculture in the face of future environmental change. This recommended policy is an option with few regrets, in that its other benefits include maximising groundwater replenishment, ensuring freshwater availability during drought periods (including countering salt water intrusion), cleansing rice paddies of pests and disease, and tempering downstream flooding. If triple-rice-cropping continues to have priority, financial support will particularly be needed to provide help to poorer farmers coping with increases in artificial fertiliser prices

Sediment dynamics in the lower Mekong River : transition from tidal river to estuary

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2015. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 120 (2015): 6363–6383, doi:10.1002/2015JC010754.A better understanding of flow and sediment dynamics in the lowermost portions of large-tropical rivers is essential to constraining estimates of worldwide sediment delivery to the ocean. Flow velocity, salinity, and suspended-sediment concentration were measured for 25 h at three cross sections in the tidal Song Hau distributary of the Mekong River, Vietnam. Two campaigns took place during comparatively high-seasonal and low-seasonal discharge, and estuarine conditions varied dramatically between them. The system transitioned from a tidal river with ephemeral presence of a salt wedge during high flow to a partially mixed estuary during low flow. The changing freshwater input, sediment sources, and estuarine characteristics resulted in seaward sediment export during high flow and landward import during low flow. The Dinh An channel of the Song Hau distributary exported sediment to the coast at a rate of about 1 t s−1 during high flow and imported sediment in a spatially varying manner at approximately 0.3 t s−1 during low flow. Scaling these values results in a yearly Mekong sediment discharge estimate about 65% smaller than a generally accepted estimate of 110 Mt yr−1, although the limited temporal and spatial nature of this study implies a relatively high degree of uncertainty for the new estimate. Fluvial advection of sediment was primarily responsible for the high-flow sediment export. Exchange-flow and tidal processes, including local resuspension, were principally responsible for the low-flow import. The resulting bed-sediment grain size was coarser and more variable during high flow and finer during low, and the residual flow patterns support the maintenance of mid-channel islands.Office of Naval Research Grant Numbers: N00014-12-1-0181 , N00014-13-1-0127 , N00014-13-1-0781, and National Defense Science and Engineering2016-03-2

Remote Sensing for Monitoring Surface Water Quality in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta: The Application for Estimating Chemical Oxygen Demand in River Reaches in Binh Dai, Ben Tre

In this study, the method of Fault Movement Potential (FMP) proposed by Lee et al. (1997) is used to assess the Surface water resources played a fundamental role in sustainable development of agriculture and aquaculture. They were the main sectors contributing to economic development in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta. Monitoring surface water quality was also one of the essential missions especially in the context of increasing freshwater demands and loads of wastewater fluxes. Recently, remote sensing technology has been widely applied in monitoring and mapping water quality at a regional scale replacing traditional field-based approaches. The aims of this study were to assess the application of the Landsat 8 (OLI) images for estimating Chemical Oxygen Demand (COD) as well as detecting spatial changes of the COD concentration in river reaches of the Binh Dai district, Ben Tre province, a downstream area of the delta. The results indicated the significant correlation (R=0.89) between the spectral reflectance values of Landsat 8 and the COD concentration by applying the Artificial Neuron Network (ANN) approach. In addition, the spatial distribution of the COD concentration was found slightly exceeded the national standard for irrigation according to the B1 column of QCVN 08:2015.References Ackerman S., Richard F., Kathleen S., Yinghui L., Chris M., Liam G., Bryan B., and Paul M., 2010. Discriminating clear-sky from cloud with MODIS algorithm theoretical basis document (MOD35). Ali Sheikh A.A., Ghorbanali A., and Nouri N., 2007. Coastline change detection using remote sensing. International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology 4(1), 61-66. Bonansea M., María C. R., Lucio P., and Susana F., 2015. Using multi-temporal Landsat imagery and linear mixed models for assessing water quality parameters in Río Tercero reservoir (Argentina). Remote Sensing of Environment 158, 28-41. 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Water quality modelling of the Mekong River basin: climate change and socioeconomics drive flow and nutrient flux changes to the Mekong Delta

The Mekong delta is recognised as one of the world's most vulnerable mega-deltas, being subject to a range of environmental pressures including sea level rise, increasing population, and changes in flows and nutrients from its upland catchment. With changing climate and socioeconomics there is a need to assess how the Mekong catchment will be affected in terms of the delivery of water and nutrients into the delta system. Here we apply the Integrated Catchment model (INCA) to the whole Mekong River Basin to simulate flow and water quality, including nitrate, ammonia, total phosphorus and soluble reactive phosphorus. The impacts of climate change on all these variables have been assessed across 24 river reaches ranging from the Himalayas down to the delta in Vietnam. We used the UK Met Office PRECIS regionally coupled climate model to downscale precipitation and temperature to the Mekong catchment. This was accomplished using the Global Circulation Model GFDL-CM to provide the boundary conditions under two carbon control strategies, namely representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and a RCP 8.5 scenario. The RCP 4.5 scenario represents the carbon strategy required to meet the Paris Accord, which aims to limit peak global temperatures to below a 2 °C rise whilst seeking to pursue options that limit temperature rise to 1.5 °C. The RCP 8.5 scenario is associated with a larger 3–4 °C rise. In addition, we also constructed a range of socio-economic scenarios to investigate the potential impacts of changing population, atmospheric pollution, economic growth and land use change up to the 2050s. Results of INCA simulations indicate increases in mean flows of up to 24%, with flood flows in the monsoon period increasing by up to 27%, but with increasing periods of drought up to 2050. A shift in the timing of the monsoon is also simulated, with a 4 week advance in the onset of monsoon flows on average. Decreases in nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations occur primarily due to flow dilution, but fluxes of these nutrients also increase by 5%, which reflects the changing flow, land use change and population changes

Using lake sediments to assess the long-term impacts of anthropogenic activity in tropical river deltas

Tropical river deltas, and the social-ecological systems they sustain, are changing rapidly due to anthropogenic activity and climatic change. Baseline data to inform sustainable management options for resilient deltas is urgently needed and palaeolimnology (reconstructing past conditions from lake or wetland deposits) can provide crucial long-term perspectives needed to identify drivers and rates of change. We review how palaeolimnology can be a valuable tool for resource managers using three current issues facing tropical delta regions: hydrology and sediment supply, salinisation and nutrient pollution. The unique ability of palaeolimnological methods to untangle multiple stressors is also discussed. We demonstrate how palaeolimnology has been used to understand each of these issues, in other aquatic environments, to be incorporated into policy. Palaeolimnology is a key tool to understanding how anthropogenic influences interact with other environmental stressors, providing policymakers and resource managers with a ‘big picture’ view and possible holistic solutions that can be implemented

The Vietnam Initiative on Zoonotic Infections (VIZIONS): A Strategic Approach to Studying Emerging Zoonotic Infectious Diseases

The effect of newly emerging or re-emerging infectious diseases of zoonotic origin in human populations can be potentially catastrophic, and large-scale investigations of such diseases are highly challenging. The monitoring of emergence events is subject to ascertainment bias, whether at the level of species discovery, emerging disease events, or disease outbreaks in human populations. Disease surveillance is generally performed post hoc, driven by a response to recent events and by the availability of detection and identification technologies. Additionally, the inventory of pathogens that exist in mammalian and other reservoirs is incomplete, and identifying those with the potential to cause disease in humans is rarely possible in advance. A major step in understanding the burden and diversity of zoonotic infections, the local behavioral and demographic risks of infection, and the risk of emergence of these pathogens in human populations is to establish surveillance networks in populations that maintain regular contact with diverse animal populations, and to simultaneously characterize pathogen diversity in human and animal populations. Vietnam has been an epicenter of disease emergence over the last decade, and practices at the human/animal interface may facilitate the likelihood of spillover of zoonotic pathogens into humans. To tackle the scientific issues surrounding the origins and emergence of zoonotic infections in Vietnam, we have established The Vietnam Initiative on Zoonotic Infections (VIZIONS). This countrywide project, in which several international institutions collaborate with Vietnamese organizations, is combining clinical data, epidemiology, high-throughput sequencing, and social sciences to address relevant one-health questions. Here, we describe the primary aims of the project, the infrastructure established to address our scientific questions, and the current status of the project. Our principal objective is to develop an integrated approach to the surveillance of pathogens circulating in both human and animal populations and assess how frequently they are exchanged. This infrastructure will facilitate systematic investigations of pathogen ecology and evolution, enhance understanding of viral cross-species transmission events, and identify relevant risk factors and drivers of zoonotic disease emergence

Safety and efficacy of fluoxetine on functional outcome after acute stroke (AFFINITY): a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial

Background Trials of fluoxetine for recovery after stroke report conflicting results. The Assessment oF FluoxetINe In sTroke recoverY (AFFINITY) trial aimed to show if daily oral fluoxetine for 6 months after stroke improves functional outcome in an ethnically diverse population. Methods AFFINITY was a randomised, parallel-group, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial done in 43 hospital stroke units in Australia (n=29), New Zealand (four), and Vietnam (ten). Eligible patients were adults (aged ≥18 years) with a clinical diagnosis of acute stroke in the previous 2–15 days, brain imaging consistent with ischaemic or haemorrhagic stroke, and a persisting neurological deficit that produced a modified Rankin Scale (mRS) score of 1 or more. Patients were randomly assigned 1:1 via a web-based system using a minimisation algorithm to once daily, oral fluoxetine 20 mg capsules or matching placebo for 6 months. Patients, carers, investigators, and outcome assessors were masked to the treatment allocation. The primary outcome was functional status, measured by the mRS, at 6 months. The primary analysis was an ordinal logistic regression of the mRS at 6 months, adjusted for minimisation variables. Primary and safety analyses were done according to the patient's treatment allocation. The trial is registered with the Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry, ACTRN12611000774921. Findings Between Jan 11, 2013, and June 30, 2019, 1280 patients were recruited in Australia (n=532), New Zealand (n=42), and Vietnam (n=706), of whom 642 were randomly assigned to fluoxetine and 638 were randomly assigned to placebo. Mean duration of trial treatment was 167 days (SD 48·1). At 6 months, mRS data were available in 624 (97%) patients in the fluoxetine group and 632 (99%) in the placebo group. The distribution of mRS categories was similar in the fluoxetine and placebo groups (adjusted common odds ratio 0·94, 95% CI 0·76–1·15; p=0·53). Compared with patients in the placebo group, patients in the fluoxetine group had more falls (20 [3%] vs seven [1%]; p=0·018), bone fractures (19 [3%] vs six [1%]; p=0·014), and epileptic seizures (ten [2%] vs two [<1%]; p=0·038) at 6 months. Interpretation Oral fluoxetine 20 mg daily for 6 months after acute stroke did not improve functional outcome and increased the risk of falls, bone fractures, and epileptic seizures. These results do not support the use of fluoxetine to improve functional outcome after stroke

Global, regional, and national burden of disorders affecting the nervous system, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BackgroundDisorders affecting the nervous system are diverse and include neurodevelopmental disorders, late-life neurodegeneration, and newly emergent conditions, such as cognitive impairment following COVID-19. Previous publications from the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor Study estimated the burden of 15 neurological conditions in 2015 and 2016, but these analyses did not include neurodevelopmental disorders, as defined by the International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-11, or a subset of cases of congenital, neonatal, and infectious conditions that cause neurological damage. Here, we estimate nervous system health loss caused by 37 unique conditions and their associated risk factors globally, regionally, and nationally from 1990 to 2021.MethodsWe estimated mortality, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs), by age and sex in 204 countries and territories, from 1990 to 2021. We included morbidity and deaths due to neurological conditions, for which health loss is directly due to damage to the CNS or peripheral nervous system. We also isolated neurological health loss from conditions for which nervous system morbidity is a consequence, but not the primary feature, including a subset of congenital conditions (ie, chromosomal anomalies and congenital birth defects), neonatal conditions (ie, jaundice, preterm birth, and sepsis), infectious diseases (ie, COVID-19, cystic echinococcosis, malaria, syphilis, and Zika virus disease), and diabetic neuropathy. By conducting a sequela-level analysis of the health outcomes for these conditions, only cases where nervous system damage occurred were included, and YLDs were recalculated to isolate the non-fatal burden directly attributable to nervous system health loss. A comorbidity correction was used to calculate total prevalence of all conditions that affect the nervous system combined.FindingsGlobally, the 37 conditions affecting the nervous system were collectively ranked as the leading group cause of DALYs in 2021 (443 million, 95% UI 378–521), affecting 3·40 billion (3·20–3·62) individuals (43·1%, 40·5–45·9 of the global population); global DALY counts attributed to these conditions increased by 18·2% (8·7–26·7) between 1990 and 2021. Age-standardised rates of deaths per 100 000 people attributed to these conditions decreased from 1990 to 2021 by 33·6% (27·6–38·8), and age-standardised rates of DALYs attributed to these conditions decreased by 27·0% (21·5–32·4). Age-standardised prevalence was almost stable, with a change of 1·5% (0·7–2·4). The ten conditions with the highest age-standardised DALYs in 2021 were stroke, neonatal encephalopathy, migraine, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, diabetic neuropathy, meningitis, epilepsy, neurological complications due to preterm birth, autism spectrum disorder, and nervous system cancer.InterpretationAs the leading cause of overall disease burden in the world, with increasing global DALY counts, effective prevention, treatment, and rehabilitation strategies for disorders affecting the nervous system are needed

Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations. METHODS The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds. FINDINGS The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles. INTERPRETATION Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Hydraulic modelling and flood inundation mapping in a bedrock-confined anabranching network: the Mekong River in the Siphandone Wetlands, Laos

Anabranching fluvial networks recently have become the focus of attention fromenvironmental specialists, especially in the hydraulic field. Anabranching networks can befound in different physical environments; however, the hydraulic and geomorphologicalnatures of such river networks are still not well known leading to on-going discussions on thedefinition and nature of the networks. Even though, alluvial anabranching networks generallyhave common features like vegetated islands, low water surface slope and stable channelplanform, bedrock-confined anabranching networks also have their own characteristicsinherited from the geological and structural controls imposed on the single channels thatcompose the network complex.This thesis focuses on the provision of a benchmark describing the bulk hydrauliccharacteristics of a large bedrock-confined, anabranching river network, located withinsouthern Laos. The network can be separated into: (i) the upper river network constituted bytwo bifurcations and one confluence with an interpolated bathymetry based on soundings ofcross-sections along the navigation channels; and, (ii) the downstream river networkcharacterised by a complex anabranching network with five bifurcations and five confluencesfor which there is no bathymetric survey.The river network as whole is a ‘composite’ – partly bedrock (especially the channel-bed)and partly alluvial-filled and as such it does not accord fully with any prior description orclassification of anabranching channel networks (e.g. Huang and Nanson, 1996). Tounderstand the hydraulic nature of the river network, the energy approach in a onedimensional(1D) steady-flow hydraulic model (HEC-RAS) was applied to the network.Significant challenges arose due to the lack of boundary conditions throughout the model,namely: (i) unknown splitting discharge ratios at each bifurcation; (ii) partly non-surveybathymetry; and, (iii) ungauged downstream boundary condition of one of the channeloutlets. To determine the discharge entering each channel, the splitting discharge ratio at eachbifurcation was defined originally by the ratio of the cross-sectional area of the first crosssectionof each downstream channel and then adjusted based on the Flow Optimizationfunction in HEC-RAS to minimize any rise or drop of the modelled water surface around ajunction. For the channels with non-surveyed bathymetry, a SPOT satellite image wasprocessed to construct a pseudo-bathymetry showing a range of elevations, including shallowand deep portions of channels, rather than detailed bed elevations as would be obtained froma measured bathymetry. To define the boundary condition of the ungauged channel outlet, thewater surface elevation was interpolated and validated according to predefined assumptions(i.e. the water surface slope along the ungauged channel was interpolated according to theavailable DEM and cross-sectional width extracted from a SPOT image for low dischargeconditions was assumed to be similar to the gauged channels for flooding discharges).In general, the study has helped to develop methods to model the complex river network withdata constraints (i.e. the boundary conditions). The findings include: (i) the developedpseudo-bathymetry based on a SPOT image is useful to model a large river network using theenergy approach in a 1D hydraulic model in which the cross-sectional area is important inmodelling the bulk hydraulic parameters but the influence of the cross-sectional shape issubordinate; (ii) the in-channel hydraulic roughness coefficient at each cross-section may besignificantly different from neighbouring values due to the variation in the local bedrockroughness and the roughness of intervening alluvial reaches; and, (iii) the hydraulicroughness of the riparian land cover along the floodplains does not contribute noticeably tothe modelled stage along the river network nor to the planform extent of flooding foroverbank flooding discharges. Rather, changes in land-cover, and hence the riparianroughness, are registered as small, but measureable, changes in the local velocity over theriparian floodplain and in the average in-channel velocity.Citations:Van, P.D.T., 2009. Hydraulic modelling and flood inundation mapping in a bedrockconfinedanabranching network: The Mekong River in the Siphandone wetlands, Laos.Unpublished PhD thesis submitted to the Faculty of Engineering, Science and Mathematics,University of Southampton, England