Invisible Infections: A Partial Information Approach for Estimating the Transmission Dynamics of the Covid-19 Pandemic

In this paper, we develop a discrete time stochastic model under partial information to explain the evolution of Covid-19 pandemic. Our model is a modification of the well-known SIR model for epidemics, which accounts for some peculiar features of Covid-19. In particular, we work with a random transmission rate and we assume that the true number of infectious people at any observation time is random and not directly observable, to account for asymptomatic and non-tested people. We elaborate a nested particle filtering approach to estimate the reproduction rate and the model parameters. We apply our methodology to Austrian Covid-19 infection data in the period from May 2020 to June 2022. Finally, we discuss forecasts and model tests.Comment: 17 pages, 17 figure

EM algorithm for Markov chains observed via Gaussian noise and point process information: Theory and case studies

In this paper we study parameter estimation via the Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm for a continuous-time hidden Markov model with diffusion and point process observation. Inference problems of this type arise for instance in credit risk modelling. A key step in the application of the EM algorithm is the derivation of finite-dimensional filters for the quantities that are needed in the E-Step of the algorithm. In this context we obtain exact, unnormalized and robust filters, and we discuss their numerical implementation. Moreover, we propose several goodness-of-fit tests for hidden Markov models with Gaussian noise and point process observation. We run an extensive simulation study to test speed and accuracy of our methodology. The paper closes with an application to credit risk: we estimate the parameters of a hidden Markov model for credit quality where the observations consist of rating transitions and credit spreads for US corporations

High-temperature nano-impact testing of a hard-coating system

Forging and cutting tools for high-temperature applications are often protected using hard nanostructured ceramic coatings. While a moderate amount of knowledge exists for material properties at room temperatures, significantly less is known about the system constituents at the elevated temperatures generated during service. For rational engineering design of such systems, it is therefore important to have methodologies for testing these materials to understand their properties under such conditions (i.e. high strain rate, temperature, or impact). In this work, we present our first results using a newly developed Alemnis piezo actuated nanoindenter device which utilizes dynamic indentation testing at frequencies approaching 10 kHz. A sinusoidal displacement amplitude input is provided, while a stage heater allows for sample temperatures exceeding 500 °C. Thermal drift can be minimized through high frequency, and therefore low contact time, impacts. We investigated a thin (4.65 μm) physical vapor deposited chromium nitride (CrN) ceramic coating, which had been deposited onto plasma nitrided tool steel. Forces of approximately 400 mN were applied sinusoidally at 500 Hz using a 5 μm diameter diamond flat-punch at room temperature, 200°C, 300°C, 400°C and 500°C. It was found that increasing the number of impacts led to plastic deformation and fatiguing of the hard ceramic coating. At 300°C a transition to increased material flow and consequently larger crater size, and crack initiation and propagation in the ceramic, was observed. These ceramic deformation results are understood using high-resolution scanning electron microscopy (HR-SEM), elastic simulations, and large scale batch processing of force-deformation data which are generated during high-frequency measurement and collected at a sampling rate of 50 kHz. The results are further put into context by understanding recently measured small-scale high-temperature fracture toughness and yield strength properties of thin CrN films. The presented results are the first for in situ high-temperature nano-impact testing, and will be useful for hard coatings industries involving high service temperatures and high impact strain rates, such as for forging processes

High strain rate plasticity in microscale glass

Understanding the materials behavior at high strain rates is critical for the design of structures subjected to accidental overloads such as crash testing of vehicles and impact resistance of surface coatings. From a scientific perspective, experimental determination of high strain rate properties at the micro- and nano-scale will allow the bridging of time scales between atomistic simulations and experiments, leading to a direct comparison between the two methods. Despite many efforts to expand the range of micro and nanomechanical testing in terms of forces, temperatures and loading conditions, the achievable strain rates are still around 10-5 s-1 to 10-2 s-1. This limited range of strain rates is primarily due to lack of testing platforms capable of simultaneous high-speed actuation and high-speed sensing of microscale displacements and millinewton loads. This presentation will report, a piezo-based experimental methodology for conducting high strain rate in situ micropillar compression testing at rates upto ~2000/s inside a scanning electron microscope (SEM), including a brief overview of the advantages and challenges of microscale high strain rate testing compared to traditional macroscale, Kolsky bar based, high strain rate testing. Please click Additional Files below to see the full abstract

An in‐situ indentation system for high dynamic nanomechanical measurements

Nanoindentation is typically confined to quasi-static strain rates of testing. This poster presents the development of an in-situ indenter designed to measure the response of materials at high strain rates and high oscillation frequencies at the nanoscale. This builds up on the previous work that was the first to report on in-situ nanoindentation in a SEM in 2004 which eventually resulted in the founding of the company Alemnis AG, today one of the key players in in-situ high temperature and high dynamic nanoindentation. The motivation for variable strain rate studies is that this allows analysis of activation parameters of the physical deformation processes. Once the activation parameters are known, the deformation mechanism(s) can be determined and materials science approaches to improve materials performance can be developed. Ultra-high frequency nanoindentation enables high strain rate studies and high cycle fatigue tests that can be performed within reasonably short timespan. Compared to other actuation principles, piezo actuators offers very fast response time and high force density and are compatible with vacuum environments. At the technological heart of this innovation is a transducer called “SmarTip” consisting of a diamond tip mounted on miniaturized and embedded three-axis piezo-actuators and sensors. The SmarTip allows a full range displacement of 1μm along the three axes and to measure forces up to 1N. The theoretical bandwidths are up to 10kHz and 40kHz for lateral and axial displacements respectively. We aim to reach strain rates as high as 105s-1 meaning that the speed of displacement must reach 60mm/s for a displacement of 600nm. With such high ambitions, several parameters have to be taken into consideration such as resonant frequencies of the indenter, self-heating and cabling inducing spurious capacitance. This poster will report on these design aspects, instrumentation and technique development in addition to presenting initial data on high strain rate and high cycle fatigue tests at the micron scale. It is hoped that the multi-axis capabilities of the SmarTip will result in additional breakthroughs for applications on nano-tribology, fretting and more generally on the translation of dynamic mechanical analysis (DMA) to the micro/nanoscale. Acknowledgments Research work partially co-funded by the Commission for Technology and Innovation (CTI), the State Secretariat for Education, Research and the Innovation Eurostars program and project UHV

External Validation and Extension of a Clinical Score for the Discrimination of Type 2 Myocardial Infarction

Background: The early non-invasive discrimination of Type 2 versus Type 1 Myocardial Infarction (T2MI, T1MI) is a major unmet clinical need. We aimed to externally validate a recently derived clinical score (Neumann) combing female sex, no radiating chest pain, and high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I (hs-cTnI) concentration ≤40.8 ng/L. Methods: Patients presenting with acute chest discomfort to the emergency department were prospectively enrolled into an international multicenter diagnostic study. The final diagnoses of T2MI and T1MI were centrally adjudicated by two independent cardiologists using all information including cardiac imaging and serial measurements of hs-cTnT/I according to the fourth universal definition of MI. Model performance for T2MI diagnosis was assessed by formal tests and graphical means of discrimination and calibration. Results: Among 6684 enrolled patients, MI was the adjudicated final diagnosis in 1079 (19%) patients, of which 242 (22%) had T2MI. External validation of the Neumann Score showed a moderate discrimination (C-statistic 0.67 (95%CI 0.64–0.71)). Model calibration showed underestimation of the predicted probabilities of having T2MI for low point scores. Model extension by adding the binary variable heart rate >120/min significantly improved model performance (C-statistic 0.73 (95% CI 0.70–0.76, p 120/min improved the model’s performance

Ideas and Perspectives: A Strategic Assessment of Methane and Nitrous Oxide Measurements In the Marine Environment

In the current era of rapid climate change, accurate characterization of climate-relevant gas dynamics-namely production, consumption, and net emissions-is required for all biomes, especially those ecosystems most susceptible to the impact of change. Marine environments include regions that act as net sources or sinks for numerous climateactive trace gases including methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O). The temporal and spatial distributions of CH4 and N2O are controlled by the interaction of complex biogeochemical and physical processes. To evaluate and quantify how these mechanisms affect marine CH4 and N2O cycling requires a combination of traditional scientific disciplines including oceanography, microbiology, and numerical modeling. Fundamental to these efforts is ensuring that the datasets produced by independent scientists are comparable and interoperable. Equally critical is transparent communication within the research community about the technical improvements required to increase our collective understanding of marine CH4 and N2O. A workshop sponsored by Ocean Carbon and Biogeochemistry (OCB) was organized to enhance dialogue and collaborations pertaining to marine CH4 and N2O. Here, we summarize the outcomes from the workshop to describe the challenges and opportunities for near-future CH4 and N2O research in the marine environment