Survival Analysis Part I: Basic concepts and first analyses

Survival analysis is a collection of statistical procedures for data analysis where the outcome variable of interest is time until an event occurs. Because of censoring - the nonobservation of the event of interest after a period of follow-up - a proportion of the survival times of interest will often be unknown. It is assumed that those patients who are censored have the same survival prospects as those who continue to be followed, that is, the censoring is uninformative. Survival data are generally described and modelled in terms of two related functions, the survivor function and the hazard function. The survivor function represents the probability that an individual survives from the time of origin to some time beyond time t. It directly describes the survival experience of a study cohort, and is usually estimated by the KM method. The logrank test may be used to test for differences between survival curves for groups, such as treatment arms. The hazard function gives the instantaneous potential of having an event at a time, given survival up to that time. It is used primarily as a diagnostic tool or for specifying a mathematical model for survival analysis. In comparing treatments or prognostic groups in terms of survival, it is often necessary to adjust for patient-related factors that could potentially affect the survival time of a patient. Failure to adjust for confounders may result in spurious effects. Multivariate survival analysis, a form of multiple regression, provides a way of doing this adjustment, and is the subject the next paper in this series

The relational ethics of conflict and identity

The contemporary psychoanalytically inflected vocabulary of relational ethics centres on acknowledgement, witnessing and responsibility. It has become an important code for efforts to connect with otherness across fractures of hurt, oppression and suffering. One can see the deployment of this vocabulary to challenge patterns of exclusion and dehumanisation in zones of intense political conflict in many situations in which destructive hatred reigns. This paper traces some of the use of and disputes over this ‘acknowledgement-based’ relational ethics in the recent work of Jessica Benjamin and Judith Butler. The field of application is their response to Israel’s treatment of the Palestinians, given their position as Jews. The challenge of the acknowledgement agenda leads back to an issue of general concern – the degree to which relational ethics can prise open apparently closed and defensive psychosocial identities

Combining estimates of interest in prognostic modelling studies after multiple imputation: current practice and guidelines

Background: Multiple imputation (MI) provides an effective approach to handle missing covariate data within prognostic modelling studies, as it can properly account for the missing data uncertainty. The multiply imputed datasets are each analysed using standard prognostic modelling techniques to obtain the estimates of interest. The estimates from each imputed dataset are then combined into one overall estimate and variance, incorporating both the within and between imputation variability. Rubin's rules for combining these multiply imputed estimates are based on asymptotic theory. The resulting combined estimates may be more accurate if the posterior distribution of the population parameter of interest is better approximated by the normal distribution. However, the normality assumption may not be appropriate for all the parameters of interest when analysing prognostic modelling studies, such as predicted survival probabilities and model performance measures. Methods: Guidelines for combining the estimates of interest when analysing prognostic modelling studies are provided. A literature review is performed to identify current practice for combining such estimates in prognostic modelling studies. Results: Methods for combining all reported estimates after MI were not well reported in the current literature. Rubin's rules without applying any transformations were the standard approach used, when any method was stated. Conclusion: The proposed simple guidelines for combining estimates after MI may lead to a wider and more appropriate use of MI in future prognostic modelling studies

IMPLEmenting a clinical practice guideline for acute low back pain evidence-based manageMENT in general practice (IMPLEMENT) : cluster randomised controlled trial study protocol

Background: Evidence generated from reliable research is not frequently implemented into clinical practice. Evidence-based clinical practice guidelines are a potential vehicle to achieve this. A recent systematic review of implementation strategies of guideline dissemination concluded that there was a lack of evidence regarding effective strategies to promote the uptake of guidelines. Recommendations from this review, and other studies, have suggested the use of interventions that are theoretically based because these may be more effective than those that are not. An evidencebased clinical practice guideline for the management of acute low back pain was recently developed in Australia. This provides an opportunity to develop and test a theory-based implementation intervention for a condition which is common, has a high burden, and for which there is an evidence-practice gap in the primary care setting. Aim: This study aims to test the effectiveness of a theory-based intervention for implementing a clinical practice guideline for acute low back pain in general practice in Victoria, Australia. Specifically, our primary objectives are to establish if the intervention is effective in reducing the percentage of patients who are referred for a plain x-ray, and improving mean level of disability for patients three months post-consultation. Methods/Design: This study protocol describes the details of a cluster randomised controlled trial. Ninety-two general practices (clusters), which include at least one consenting general practitioner, will be randomised to an intervention or control arm using restricted randomisation. Patients aged 18 years or older who visit a participating practitioner for acute non-specific low back pain of less than three months duration will be eligible for inclusion. An average of twenty-five patients per general practice will be recruited, providing a total of 2,300 patient participants. General practitioners in the control arm will receive access to the guideline using the existing dissemination strategy. Practitioners in the intervention arm will be invited to participate in facilitated face-to-face workshops that have been underpinned by behavioural theory. Investigators (not involved in the delivery of the intervention), patients, outcome assessors and the study statistician will be blinded to group allocation. Trial registration: Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry ACTRN012606000098538 (date registered 14/03/2006).The trial is funded by the NHMRC by way of a Primary Health Care Project Grant (334060). JF has 50% of her time funded by the Chief Scientist Office3/2006). of the Scottish Government Health Directorate and 50% by the University of Aberdeen. PK is supported by a NHMRC Health Professional Fellowship (384366) and RB by a NHMRC Practitioner Fellowship (334010). JG holds a Canada Research Chair in Health Knowledge Transfer and Uptake. All other authors are funded by their own institutions

A risk profile for identifying community-dwelling elderly with a highrisk of recurrent falling: results of a 3-year prospective study

Introduction: The aim of the prospective study reported here was to develop a risk profile that can be used to identify community-dwelling elderly at a high risk of recurrent falling. Materials and methods: The study was designed as a 3-year prospective cohort study. A total of 1365 community-dwelling persons, aged 65 years and older, of the population-based Longitudinal Aging Study Amsterdam participated in the study. During an interview in 1995/1996, physical, cognitive, emotional and social aspects of functioning were assessed. A follow-up on the number of falls and fractures was conducted during a 3-year period using fall calendars that participants filled out weekly. Recurrent fallers were identified as those who fell at least twice within a 6-month period during the 3-year follow-up. Results: The incidence of recurrent falls at the 3-year follow-up point was 24.9% in women and 24.4% in men. Of the respondents, 5.5% reported a total of 87 fractures that resulted from a fall, including 20 hip fractures, 21 wrist fractures and seven humerus fractures. Recurrent fallers were more prone to have a fall-related fracture than those who were not defined as recurrent fallers (11.9% vs. 3.4%; OR: 3.8; 95% CI: 2.3-6.1). Backward logistic regression analysis identified the following predictors in the risk profile for recurrent falling: two or more previous falls, dizziness, functional limitations, weak grip strength, low body weight, fear of falling, the presence of dogs/cats in the household, a high educational level, drinking 18 or more alcoholic consumptions per week and two interaction terms (high educationx18 or more alcohol consumptions per week and two or more previous falls x fear of falling) (AUC=0.71). Discussion: At a cut-off point of 5 on the total risk score (range 0-30), the model predicted recurrent falling with a sensitivity of 59% and a specificity of 71%. At a cut-off point of 10, the sensitivity and specificity were 31% and 92%, respectively. A risk profile including nine predictors that can easily be assessed seems to be a useful tool for the identification of community-dwelling elderly with a high risk of recurrent falling. © International Osteoporosis Foundation and National Osteoporosis Foundation 2006

Power grip, pinch grip, manual muscle testing or thenar atrophy - which should be assessed as a motor outcome after carpal tunnel decompression? A systematic review

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Objective assessment of motor function is frequently used to evaluate outcome after surgical treatment of carpal tunnel syndrome (CTS). However a range of outcome measures are used and there appears to be no consensus on which measure of motor function effectively captures change. The purpose of this systematic review was to identify the methods used to assess motor function in randomized controlled trials of surgical interventions for CTS. A secondary aim was to evaluate which instruments reflect clinical change and are psychometrically robust.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The bibliographic databases Medline, AMED and CINAHL were searched for randomized controlled trials of surgical interventions for CTS. Data on instruments used, methods of assessment and results of tests of motor function was extracted by two independent reviewers.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Twenty-two studies were retrieved which included performance based assessments of motor function. Nineteen studies assessed power grip dynamometry, fourteen studies used both power and pinch grip dynamometry, eight used manual muscle testing and five assessed the presence or absence of thenar atrophy. Several studies used multiple tests of motor function. Two studies included both power and pinch strength and reported descriptive statistics enabling calculation of effect sizes to compare the relative responsiveness of grip and pinch strength within study samples. The study findings suggest that tip pinch is more responsive than lateral pinch or power grip up to 12 weeks following surgery for CTS.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Although used most frequently and known to be reliable, power and key pinch dynamometry are not the most valid or responsive tools for assessing motor outcome up to 12 weeks following surgery for CTS. Tip pinch dynamometry more specifically targets the thenar musculature and appears to be more responsive. Manual muscle testing, which in theory is most specific to the thenar musculature, may be more sensitive if assessed using a hand held dynamometer – the Rotterdam Intrinsic Handheld Myometer. However further research is needed to evaluate its reliability and responsiveness and establish the most efficient and psychometrically robust method of evaluating motor function following surgery for CTS.</p

Categorisation of continuous exposure variables revisited. A response to the Hyperglycaemia and Adverse Pregnancy Outcome (HAPO) Study

Background Although the general statistical advice is to keep continuous exposure variables as continuous in statistical analyses, categorisation is still a common approach in medical research. In a recent paper from the Hyperglycaemia and Adverse Pregnancy Outcome (HAPO) Study, categorisation of body mass index (BMI) was used when analysing the effect of BMI on adverse pregnancy outcomes. The lowest category, labelled "underweight", was used as the reference category. Methods The present paper gives a summary of reasons for categorisation and methodological drawbacks of this approach. We also discuss the choice of reference category and alternative analyses. We exemplify our arguments by a reanalysis of results from the HAPO paper. Results Categorisation of continuous exposure data results in loss of power and other methodological challenges. An unfortunate choice of reference category can give additional lack of precision and obscure the interpretation of risk estimates. A highlighted odds ratio (OR) in the HAPO study is the OR for birth weight >90th percentile for women in the highest compared to the lowest BMI category ("obese class III" versus "underweight"). This estimate was OR = 4.55 and OR = 3.52, with two different multiple logistic regression models. When using the "normal weight" category as the reference, our corresponding estimates were OR = 2.03 and OR = 1.62, respectively. Moreover, our choice of reference category also gave narrower confidence intervals. Summary Due to several methodological drawbacks, categorisation should be avoided. Modern statistical analyses should be used to analyse continuous exposure data, and to explore non-linear relations. If continuous data are categorised, special attention must be given to the choice of reference category

Pepsinogen A, pepsinogen C, and gastrin as markers of atrophic chronic gastritis in European dyspeptics

Serum levels of pepsinogen and gastrin are parameters that can be used as biomarkers for gastric mucosa. The aim of this study was to validate these serum biomarkers, that is pepsinogen A (PGA), pepsinogen C (PGC), PGA/PGC ratio, and gastrin, as screening tests for precancerous lesions: atrophic chronic gastritis (ACG) or Helicobacter pylori-related corpus-predominant or multifocal atrophy. The study population was comprised of a subsample of 284 patients from the 451 included in the Eurohepygast cohort, between 1995 and 1997. The concentrations of PGA, PGC, and gastrin were measured by radioimmunoassays. Histological diagnosis was the gold standard. Cut-off points were calculated using receiving operator characteristics (ROC) curves. Factors linked to variation of biomarkers were identified using multivariate linear regression. The mean of each biomarker in the sample was: PGA, 77.4 μg l−1; PGC, 13.2 μg l−1; PGA/PGC, 6.7; and gastrin, 62.4 ng l−1. For ACG patients, the areas under the PGA, PGC, PGA/PGC, and gastrin ROC curves were 0.55, 0.62, 0.73, and 0.58, respectively. The best cut-off point for PGA/PGC was 5.6, with sensitivity 65% and specificity 77.9%. For H. pylori-related corpus-predominant or multifocal atrophy, the areas under the respective ROC curves were 0.57, 0.67, 0.84, and 0.69. The best cut-off point for PGA/PGC was 4.7, with sensitivity 77.1% and specificity 87.4%. The results suggested that only the PGA/PGC ratio can be considered as a biomarker for precancerous lesions of the stomach, and may be useful as a screening test

External validation of a COPD prediction model using population-based primary care data: a nested case-control study

Emerging models for predicting risk of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) require external validation in order to assess their clinical value. We validated a previous model for predicting new onset COPD in a different database. We randomly drew 38,597 case-control pairs (total N = 77,194) of individuals aged ≥35 years and matched for sex, age, and general practice from the United Kingdom Clinical Practice Research Datalink database. We assessed accuracy of the model to discriminate between COPD cases and non-cases by calculating area under the receiver operator characteristic (ROC(AUC)) for the prediction scores. Analogous to the development model, ever smoking (OR 6.70; 95%CI 6.41–6.99), prior asthma (OR 6.43; 95%CI 5.85–7.07), and higher socioeconomic deprivation (OR 2.90; 95%CI 2.72–3.09 for highest vs. lowest quintile) increased the risk of COPD. The validated prediction scores ranged from 0–5.71 (ROC(AUC) 0.66; 95%CI 0.65–0.66) for males and 0–5.95 (ROC(AUC) 0.71; 95%CI 0.70–0.71) for females. We have confirmed that smoking, prior asthma, and socioeconomic deprivation are key risk factors for new onset COPD. Our model seems externally valid at identifying patients at risk of developing COPD. An impact assessment now needs to be undertaken to assess whether this prediction model can be applied in clinical care settings