Accuracy of Predicting the Genetic Risk of Disease Using a Genome-Wide Approach

Background - The prediction of the genetic disease risk of an individual is a powerful public health tool. While predicting risk has been successful in diseases which follow simple Mendelian inheritance, it has proven challenging in complex diseases for which a large number of loci contribute to the genetic variance. The large numbers of single nucleotide polymorphisms now available provide new opportunities for predicting genetic risk of complex diseases with high accuracy. Methodology/Principal Findings - We have derived simple deterministic formulae to predict the accuracy of predicted genetic risk from population or case control studies using a genome-wide approach and assuming a dichotomous disease phenotype with an underlying continuous liability. We show that the prediction equations are special cases of the more general problem of predicting the accuracy of estimates of genetic values of a continuous phenotype. Our predictive equations are responsive to all parameters that affect accuracy and they are independent of allele frequency and effect distributions. Deterministic prediction errors when tested by simulation were generally small. The common link among the expressions for accuracy is that they are best summarized as the product of the ratio of number of phenotypic records per number of risk loci and the observed heritability. Conclusions/Significance - This study advances the understanding of the relative power of case control and population studies of disease. The predictions represent an upper bound of accuracy which may be achievable with improved effect estimation methods. The formulae derived will help researchers determine an appropriate sample size to attain a certain accuracy when predicting genetic ris

Taking Multiple Infections of Cells and Recombination into Account Leads to Small Within-Host Effective-Population-Size Estimates of HIV-1

Whether HIV-1 evolution in infected individuals is dominated by deterministic or stochastic effects remains unclear because current estimates of the effective population size of HIV-1 in vivo, Ne, are widely varying. Models assuming HIV-1 evolution to be neutral estimate Ne∼102–104, smaller than the inverse mutation rate of HIV-1 (∼105), implying the predominance of stochastic forces. In contrast, a model that includes selection estimates Ne>105, suggesting that deterministic forces would hold sway. The consequent uncertainty in the nature of HIV-1 evolution compromises our ability to describe disease progression and outcomes of therapy. We perform detailed bit-string simulations of viral evolution that consider large genome lengths and incorporate the key evolutionary processes underlying the genomic diversification of HIV-1 in infected individuals, namely, mutation, multiple infections of cells, recombination, selection, and epistatic interactions between multiple loci. Our simulations describe quantitatively the evolution of HIV-1 diversity and divergence in patients. From comparisons of our simulations with patient data, we estimate Ne∼103–104, implying predominantly stochastic evolution. Interestingly, we find that Ne and the viral generation time are correlated with the disease progression time, presenting a route to a priori prediction of disease progression in patients. Further, we show that the previous estimate of Ne>105 reduces as the frequencies of multiple infections of cells and recombination assumed increase. Our simulations with Ne∼103–104 may be employed to estimate markers of disease progression and outcomes of therapy that depend on the evolution of viral diversity and divergence

Genetic variants in novel pathways influence blood pressure and cardiovascular disease risk.

Blood pressure is a heritable trait influenced by several biological pathways and responsive to environmental stimuli. Over one billion people worldwide have hypertension (≥140 mm Hg systolic blood pressure or  ≥90 mm Hg diastolic blood pressure). Even small increments in blood pressure are associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular events. This genome-wide association study of systolic and diastolic blood pressure, which used a multi-stage design in 200,000 individuals of European descent, identified sixteen novel loci: six of these loci contain genes previously known or suspected to regulate blood pressure (GUCY1A3-GUCY1B3, NPR3-C5orf23, ADM, FURIN-FES, GOSR2, GNAS-EDN3); the other ten provide new clues to blood pressure physiology. A genetic risk score based on 29 genome-wide significant variants was associated with hypertension, left ventricular wall thickness, stroke and coronary artery disease, but not kidney disease or kidney function. We also observed associations with blood pressure in East Asian, South Asian and African ancestry individuals. Our findings provide new insights into the genetics and biology of blood pressure, and suggest potential novel therapeutic pathways for cardiovascular disease prevention

A genome-wide association search for type 2 diabetes genes in African Americans

African Americans are disproportionately affected by type 2 diabetes (T2DM) yet few studies have examined T2DM using genome-wide association approaches in this ethnicity. The aim of this study was to identify genes associated with T2DM in the African American population. We performed a Genome Wide Association Study (GWAS) using the Affymetrix 6.0 array in 965 African-American cases with T2DM and end-stage renal disease (T2DM-ESRD) and 1029 population-based controls. The most significant SNPs (n = 550 independent loci) were genotyped in a replication cohort and 122 SNPs (n = 98 independent loci) were further tested through genotyping three additional validation cohorts followed by meta-analysis in all five cohorts totaling 3,132 cases and 3,317 controls. Twelve SNPs had evidence of association in the GWAS (P<0.0071), were directionally consistent in the Replication cohort and were associated with T2DM in subjects without nephropathy (P<0.05). Meta-analysis in all cases and controls revealed a single SNP reaching genome-wide significance (P<2.5×10(-8)). SNP rs7560163 (P = 7.0×10(-9), OR (95% CI) = 0.75 (0.67-0.84)) is located intergenically between RND3 and RBM43. Four additional loci (rs7542900, rs4659485, rs2722769 and rs7107217) were associated with T2DM (P<0.05) and reached more nominal levels of significance (P<2.5×10(-5)) in the overall analysis and may represent novel loci that contribute to T2DM. We have identified novel T2DM-susceptibility variants in the African-American population. Notably, T2DM risk was associated with the major allele and implies an interesting genetic architecture in this population. These results suggest that multiple loci underlie T2DM susceptibility in the African-American population and that these loci are distinct from those identified in other ethnic populations

A genome-wide association search for type 2 diabetes genes in African Americans

African Americans are disproportionately affected by type 2 diabetes (T2DM) yet few studies have examined T2DM using genome-wide association approaches in this ethnicity. The aim of this study was to identify genes associated with T2DM in the African American population. We performed a Genome Wide Association Study (GWAS) using the Affymetrix 6.0 array in 965 African-American cases with T2DM and end-stage renal disease (T2DM-ESRD) and 1029 population-based controls. The most significant SNPs (n = 550 independent loci) were genotyped in a replication cohort and 122 SNPs (n = 98 independent loci) were further tested through genotyping three additional validation cohorts followed by meta-analysis in all five cohorts totaling 3,132 cases and 3,317 controls. Twelve SNPs had evidence of association in the GWAS (P<0.0071), were directionally consistent in the Replication cohort and were associated with T2DM in subjects without nephropathy (P<0.05). Meta-analysis in all cases and controls revealed a single SNP reaching genome-wide significance (P<2.5×10(-8)). SNP rs7560163 (P = 7.0×10(-9), OR (95% CI) = 0.75 (0.67-0.84)) is located intergenically between RND3 and RBM43. Four additional loci (rs7542900, rs4659485, rs2722769 and rs7107217) were associated with T2DM (P<0.05) and reached more nominal levels of significance (P<2.5×10(-5)) in the overall analysis and may represent novel loci that contribute to T2DM. We have identified novel T2DM-susceptibility variants in the African-American population. Notably, T2DM risk was associated with the major allele and implies an interesting genetic architecture in this population. These results suggest that multiple loci underlie T2DM susceptibility in the African-American population and that these loci are distinct from those identified in other ethnic populations