A frequentist framework of inductive reasoning

Reacting against the limitation of statistics to decision procedures, R. A. Fisher proposed for inductive reasoning the use of the fiducial distribution, a parameter-space distribution of epistemological probability transferred directly from limiting relative frequencies rather than computed according to the Bayes update rule. The proposal is developed as follows using the confidence measure of a scalar parameter of interest. (With the restriction to one-dimensional parameter space, a confidence measure is essentially a fiducial probability distribution free of complications involving ancillary statistics.) A betting game establishes a sense in which confidence measures are the only reliable inferential probability distributions. The equality between the probabilities encoded in a confidence measure and the coverage rates of the corresponding confidence intervals ensures that the measure's rule for assigning confidence levels to hypotheses is uniquely minimax in the game. Although a confidence measure can be computed without any prior distribution, previous knowledge can be incorporated into confidence-based reasoning. To adjust a p-value or confidence interval for prior information, the confidence measure from the observed data can be combined with one or more independent confidence measures representing previous agent opinion. (The former confidence measure may correspond to a posterior distribution with frequentist matching of coverage probabilities.) The representation of subjective knowledge in terms of confidence measures rather than prior probability distributions preserves approximate frequentist validity.Comment: major revisio

The rationale and design of the antihypertensives and vascular, endothelial, and cognitive function (AVEC) trial in elderly hypertensives with early cognitive impairment: Role of the renin angiotensin system inhibition

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Prior evidence suggests that the renin angiotensin system and antihypertensives that inhibit this system play a role in cognitive, central vascular, and endothelial function. Our objective is to conduct a double-blind randomized controlled clinical trial, the antihypertensives and vascular, endothelial, and cognitive function (AVEC), to compare 1 year treatment of 3 antihypertensives (lisinopril, candesartan, or hydrochlorothiazide) in their effect on memory and executive function, cerebral blood flow, and central endothelial function of seniors with hypertension and early objective evidence of executive or memory impairments.</p> <p>Methods/Design</p> <p>The overall experimental design of the AVEC trial is a 3-arm double blind randomized controlled clinical trial. A total of 100 community eligible individuals (60 years or older) with hypertension and early cognitive impairment are being recruited from the greater Boston area and randomized to lisinopril, candesartan, or hydrochlorothiazide ("active control") for 12 months. The goal of the intervention is to achieve blood pressure control defined as SBP < 140 mm Hg and DBP < 90 mm Hg. Additional antihypertensives are added to achieve this goal if needed. Eligible participants are those with hypertension, defined as a blood pressure 140/90 mm Hg or greater, early cognitive impairment without dementia defined (10 or less out of 15 on the executive clock draw test or 1 standard deviation below the mean on the immediate memory subtest of the repeatable battery for the assessment of neuropsychological status and Mini-Mental-Status-exam >20 and without clinical diagnosis of dementia or Alzheimer's disease). Individuals who are currently receiving antihypertensives are eligible to participate if the participants and the primary care providers are willing to taper their antihypertensives. Participants undergo cognitive assessment, measurements of cerebral blood flow using Transcranial Doppler, and central endothelial function by measuring changes in cerebral blood flow in response to changes in end tidal carbon dioxide at baseline (off antihypertensives), 6, and 12 months. Our outcomes are change in cognitive function score (executive and memory), cerebral blood flow, and carbon dioxide cerebral vasoreactivity.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>The AVEC trial is the first study to explore impact of antihypertensives in those who are showing early evidence of cognitive difficulties that did not reach the threshold of dementia. Success of this trial will offer new therapeutic application of antihypertensives that inhibit the renin angiotensin system and new insights in the role of this system in aging.</p> <p>Trial Registration</p> <p>Clinicaltrials.gov NCT00605072</p

Setting an Optimal α That Minimizes Errors in Null Hypothesis Significance Tests

Null hypothesis significance testing has been under attack in recent years, partly owing to the arbitrary nature of setting α (the decision-making threshold and probability of Type I error) at a constant value, usually 0.05. If the goal of null hypothesis testing is to present conclusions in which we have the highest possible confidence, then the only logical decision-making threshold is the value that minimizes the probability (or occasionally, cost) of making errors. Setting α to minimize the combination of Type I and Type II error at a critical effect size can easily be accomplished for traditional statistical tests by calculating the α associated with the minimum average of α and β at the critical effect size. This technique also has the flexibility to incorporate prior probabilities of null and alternate hypotheses and/or relative costs of Type I and Type II errors, if known. Using an optimal α results in stronger scientific inferences because it estimates and minimizes both Type I errors and relevant Type II errors for a test. It also results in greater transparency concerning assumptions about relevant effect size(s) and the relative costs of Type I and II errors. By contrast, the use of α = 0.05 results in arbitrary decisions about what effect sizes will likely be considered significant, if real, and results in arbitrary amounts of Type II error for meaningful potential effect sizes. We cannot identify a rationale for continuing to arbitrarily use α = 0.05 for null hypothesis significance tests in any field, when it is possible to determine an optimal α

The SNAPSHOT study protocol : SNAcking, Physical activity, Self-regulation, and Heart rate Over Time

Peer reviewedPublisher PD

The association of circulating amylin with β-amyloid in familial Alzheimer's disease.

INTRODUCTION: This study assessed the hypothesis that circulating human amylin (amyloid-forming) cross-seeds with amyloid beta (Aβ) in early Alzheimer's disease (AD). METHODS: Evidence of amylin-AD pathology interaction was tested in brains of 31 familial AD mutation carriers and 20 cognitively unaffected individuals, in cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) (98 diseased and 117 control samples) and in genetic databases. For functional testing, we genetically manipulated amylin secretion in APP/PS1 and non-APP/PS1 rats. RESULTS: Amylin-Aβ cross-seeding was identified in AD brains. High CSF amylin levels were associated with decreased CSF Aβ42 concentrations. AD risk and amylin gene are not correlated. Suppressed amylin secretion protected APP/PS1 rats against AD-associated effects. In contrast, hypersecretion or intravenous injection of human amylin in APP/PS1 rats exacerbated AD-like pathology through disruption of CSF-brain Aβ exchange and amylin-Aβ cross-seeding. DISCUSSION: These findings strengthened the hypothesis of circulating amylin-AD interaction and suggest that modulation of blood amylin levels may alter Aβ-related pathology/symptoms

Detecting Subtle Changes in Visuospatial Executive Function and Learning in the Amnestic Variant of Mild Cognitive Impairment

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Amnestic mild cognitive impairment (aMCI) is a putative prodromal stage of Alzheimer's disease (AD) characterized by deficits in episodic verbal memory. Our goal in the present study was to determine whether executive dysfunction may also be detectable in individuals diagnosed with aMCI. METHODS: This study used a hidden maze learning test to characterize component processes of visuospatial executive function and learning in a sample of 62 individuals with aMCI compared with 94 healthy controls. RESULTS: Relative to controls, individuals with aMCI made more exploratory/learning errors (Cohen's d = .41). Comparison of learning curves revealed that the slope between the first two of five learning trials was four times as steep for controls than for individuals with aMCI (Cohen's d = .64). Individuals with aMCI also made a significantly greater number of rule-break/error monitoring errors across learning trials (Cohen's d = .21). CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest that performance on a task of complex visuospatial executive function is compromised in individuals with aMCI, and likely explained by reductions in initial strategy formulation during early visual learning and "on-line" maintenance of task rules

Chilean version of the INECO Frontal Screening (IFS-Ch) : psychometric properties and diagnostic accuracy

Objective: This study sought to analyze the psychometric properties and diagnostic accuracy of the Chilean version of the INECO Frontal Screening (IFS-Ch) in a sample of dementia patients and control. Methods: After adapting the instrument to the Chilean context and obtaining content validity evidence through expert consultation, the IFS-Ch was administered to 31 dementia patients and 30 control subjects together with other executive assessments (Frontal Assessment Battery [FAB], Modified version of the Wisconsin Card Sorting Test [MCST], phonemic verbal fluencies [letters A and P] and semantic verbal fluency [animals]) and global cognitive efficiency tests (Mini mental State Examination [MMSE] and Addenbrooke's Cognitive Examination-Revised [ACE-R]). Caregivers of dementia patients and proxies of control subjects were interviewed with instruments measuring dysexecutive symptoms (Dysexecutive Questionnaire [DEX]), dementia severity (Clinical Dementia Rating Scale [CDR]) and functional status in activities of daily living (Activities of Daily Living Scale [IADL] and Technology-Activities of Daily Living Questionnaire [T-ADLQ]). Convergent and discriminant validity, internal consistency reliability, cut-off points, sensitivity and specificity for the IFS-Ch were estimated. Results: Evidence of content validity was obtained. Evidence of convergent validity was also found showing significant correlations (p<0.05) between the IFS-Ch and the other instruments measuring: executive functions (FAB, r=0.935; categories achieved in the MCST, r=0.791; perseverative errors in the MCST, r= -0.617; animal verbal fluency, r=0.728; A verbal fluency, r=0.681; and P verbal fluency, r=0.783), dysexecutive symptoms in daily living (DEX, r= -0.494), dementia severity (CDR, r= -0.75) and functional status in activities of daily living (T-ADLQ, r= -0.745; IADL, r=0.717). Regarding reliability, a Cronbach's alpha coefficient of 0.905 was obtained. For diagnostic accuracy, a cut-off point of 18 points (sensitivity=0.903; specificity=0.867) and an area under curve of 0.951 were estimated to distinguish between patients with dementia and control subjects. Discussion: The IFS-Ch showed acceptable psychometric properties, supported by evidence of validity and reliability for its use in the measurement of executive functions in patients with dementia. The diagnostic accuracy of the IFS-Ch for detecting dementia patients was also considered acceptable

Hypoxia induces differential translation of enolase/MBP-1

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Hypoxic microenvironments in tumors contribute to transformation, which may alter metabolism, growth, and therapeutic responsiveness. The α-enolase gene encodes both a glycolytic enzyme (α-enolase) and a DNA-binding tumor suppressor protein, c-myc binding protein (MBP-1). These divergent α-enolase gene products play central roles in glucose metabolism and growth regulation and their differential regulation may be critical for tumor adaptation to hypoxia. We have previously shown that MBP-1 and its binding to the c-myc P₂promoter regulates the metabolic and cellular growth changes that occur in response to altered exogenous glucose concentrations.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>To examine the regulation of α-enolase and MBP-1 by a hypoxic microenvironment in breast cancer, MCF-7 cells were grown in low, physiologic, or high glucose under 1% oxygen. Our results demonstrate that adaptation to hypoxia involves attenuation of MBP-1 translation and loss of MBP-1-mediated regulation of c-myc transcription, evidenced by decreased MBP-1 binding to the c-myc P₂promoter. This allows for a robust increase in c-myc expression, "early c-myc response", which stimulates aerobic glycolysis resulting in tumor acclimation to oxidative stress. Increased α-enolase mRNA and preferential translation/post-translational modification may also allow for acclimatization to low oxygen, particularly under low glucose concentrations.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>These results demonstrate that malignant cells adapt to hypoxia by modulating α-enolase/MBP-1 levels and suggest a mechanism for tumor cell induction of the hyperglycolytic state. This important "feedback" mechanism may help transformed cells to escape the apoptotic cascade, allowing for survival during limited glucose and oxygen availability.</p

The MOBILIZE Boston Study: Design and methods of a prospective cohort study of novel risk factors for falls in an older population

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Falls are the sixth leading cause of death in elderly people in the U.S. Despite progress in understanding risk factors for falls, many suspected risk factors have not been adequately studied. Putative risk factors for falls such as pain, reductions in cerebral blood flow, somatosensory deficits, and foot disorders are poorly understood, in part because they pose measurement challenges, particularly for large observational studies.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The MOBILIZE Boston Study (MBS), an NIA-funded Program Project, is a prospective cohort study of a unique set of risk factors for falls in seniors in the Boston area. Using a door-to-door population-based recruitment, we have enrolled 765 persons aged 70 and older. The baseline assessment was conducted in 2 segments: a 3-hour home interview followed within 4 weeks by a 3-hour clinic examination. Measures included pain, cerebral hemodynamics, and foot disorders as well as established fall risk factors. For the falls follow-up, participants return fall calendar postcards to the research center at the end of each month. Reports of falls are followed-up with a telephone interview to assess circumstances and consequences of each fall. A second assessment is performed 18 months following baseline.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Of the 2382 who met all eligibility criteria at the door, 1616 (67.8%) agreed to participate and were referred to the research center for further screening. The primary reason for ineligibility was inability to communicate in English. Results from the first 600 participants showed that participants are largely representative of seniors in the Boston area in terms of age, sex, race and Hispanic ethnicity. The average age of study participants was 77.9 years (s.d. 5.5) and nearly two-thirds were women. The study cohort was 78% white and 17% black. Many participants (39%) reported having fallen at least once in the year before baseline.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Our results demonstrate the feasibility of conducting comprehensive assessments, including rigorous physiologic measurements, in a diverse population of older adults to study non-traditional risk factors for falls and disability. The MBS will provide an important new data resource for examining novel risk factors for falls and mobility problems in the older population.</p