Quaternion Solution for the Rock'n'roller: Box Orbits, Loop Orbits and Recession

We consider two types of trajectories found in a wide range of mechanical systems, viz. box orbits and loop orbits. We elucidate the dynamics of these orbits in the simple context of a perturbed harmonic oscillator in two dimensions. We then examine the small-amplitude motion of a rigid body, the rock'n'roller, a sphere with eccentric distribution of mass. The equations of motion are expressed in quaternionic form and a complete analytical solution is obtained. Both types of orbit, boxes and loops, are found, the particular form depending on the initial conditions. We interpret the motion in terms of epi-elliptic orbits. The phenomenon of recession, or reversal of precession, is associated with box orbits. The small-amplitude solutions for the symmetric case, or Routh sphere, are expressed explicitly in terms of epicycles; there is no recession in this case

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

SummaryBackground The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors—the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Findings Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57·8% (95% CI 56·6–58·8) of global deaths and 41·2% (39·8–42·8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211·8 million [192·7 million to 231·1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148·6 million [134·2 million to 163·1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143·1 million [125·1 million to 163·5 million]), high BMI (120·1 million [83·8 million to 158·4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113·3 million [103·9 million to 123·4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103·1 million [90·8 million to 115·1 million]), high total cholesterol (88·7 million [74·6 million to 105·7 million]), household air pollution (85·6 million [66·7 million to 106·1 million]), alcohol use (85·0 million [77·2 million to 93·0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83·0 million [49·3 million to 127·5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Study protocol: population screening for colorectal cancer by colonoscopy or CT colonography: a randomized controlled trial

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the second most prevalent type of cancer in Europe. Early detection and removal of CRC or its precursor lesions by population screening can reduce mortality. Colonoscopy and computed tomography colonography (CT colonography) are highly accurate exams and screening options that examine the entire colon. The success of screening depends on the participation rate. We designed a randomized trial to compare the uptake, yield and costs of direct colonoscopy population screening, using either a telephone consultation or a consultation at the outpatient clinic, versus CT colonography first, with colonoscopy in CT colonography positives.</p> <p>Methods and design</p> <p>7,500 persons between 50 and 75 years will be randomly selected from the electronic database of the municipal administration registration and will receive an invitation to participate in either CT colonography (2,500 persons) or colonoscopy (5,000 persons) screening. Those invited for colonoscopy screening will be randomized to a prior consultation either by telephone or a visit at the outpatient clinic. All CT colonography invitees will have a prior consultation by telephone. Invitees are instructed to consult their general practitioner and not to participate in screening if they have symptoms suggestive for CRC. After providing informed consent, participants will be scheduled for the screening procedure. The primary outcome measure of this study is the participation rate. Secondary outcomes are the diagnostic yield, the expected and perceived burden of the screening test, level of informed choice and cost-effectiveness of both screening methods.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>This study will provide further evidence to enable decision making in population screening for colorectal cancer.</p> <p>Trial registration</p> <p>Dutch trial register: NTR1829</p

Early phase of plasticity-related gene regulation and SRF dependent transcription in the hippocampus

Hippocampal organotypic cultures are a highly reliable in vitro model for studying neuroplasticity: in this paper, we analyze the early phase of the transcriptional response induced by a 20 \ub5M gabazine treatment (GabT), a GABA-Ar antagonist, by using Affymetrix oligonucleotide microarray, RT-PCR based time-course and chromatin-immuno-precipitation. The transcriptome profiling revealed that the pool of genes up-regulated by GabT, besides being strongly related to the regulation of growth and synaptic transmission, is also endowed with neuro-protective and pro-survival properties. By using RT-PCR, we quantified a time-course of the transient expression for 33 of the highest up-regulated genes, with an average sampling rate of 10 minutes and covering the time interval [10 3690] minutes. The cluster analysis of the time-course disclosed the existence of three different dynamical patterns, one of which proved, in a statistical analysis based on results from previous works, to be significantly related with SRF-dependent regulation (p-value<0.05). The chromatin immunoprecipitation (chip) assay confirmed the rich presence of working CArG boxes in the genes belonging to the latter dynamical pattern and therefore validated the statistical analysis. Furthermore, an in silico analysis of the promoters revealed the presence of additional conserved CArG boxes upstream of the genes Nr4a1 and Rgs2. The chip assay confirmed a significant SRF signal in the Nr4a1 CArG box but not in the Rgs2 CArG box

Is the meiofauna a good indicator for climate change and anthropogenic impacts?

Our planet is changing, and one of the most pressing challenges facing the scientific community revolves around understanding how ecological communities respond to global changes. From coastal to deep-sea ecosystems, ecologists are exploring new areas of research to find model organisms that help predict the future of life on our planet. Among the different categories of organisms, meiofauna offer several advantages for the study of marine benthic ecosystems. This paper reviews the advances in the study of meiofauna with regard to climate change and anthropogenic impacts. Four taxonomic groups are valuable for predicting global changes: foraminifers (especially calcareous forms), nematodes, copepods and ostracods. Environmental variables are fundamental in the interpretation of meiofaunal patterns and multistressor experiments are more informative than single stressor ones, revealing complex ecological and biological interactions. Global change has a general negative effect on meiofauna, with important consequences on benthic food webs. However, some meiofaunal species can be favoured by the extreme conditions induced by global change, as they can exhibit remarkable physiological adaptations. This review highlights the need to incorporate studies on taxonomy, genetics and function of meiofaunal taxa into global change impact research

Verisimilitude, cross classification and prediction logic. Approaching the statistical truth by falsified qualitative theories

Verisimilitude, Statistics, Cross classification, Prediction logic, Qualitative theories, Non-falsificationist methodologies, Popper, Lakatos,