A genetic algorithm for interpretable model extraction from decision tree ensembles

Models obtained by decision tree induction techniques excel in being interpretable. However, they can be prone to overfitting, which results in a low predictive performance. Ensemble techniques provide a solution to this problem, and are hence able to achieve higher accuracies. However, this comes at a cost of losing the excellent interpretability of the resulting model, making ensemble techniques impractical in applications where decision support, instead of decision making, is crucial. To bridge this gap, we present the genesim algorithm that transforms an ensemble of decision trees into a single decision tree with an enhanced predictive performance while maintaining interpretability by using a genetic algorithm. We compared genesim to prevalent decision tree induction algorithms, ensemble techniques and a similar technique, called ism, using twelve publicly available data sets. The results show that genesim achieves better predictive performance on most of these data sets compared to decision tree induction techniques & ism. The results also show that genesim's predictive performance is in the same order of magnitude as the ensemble techniques. However, the resulting model of genesim outperforms the ensemble techniques regarding interpretability as it has a very low complexity

Rationale, design and conduct of a randomised controlled trial evaluating a primary care-based complex intervention to improve the quality of life of heart failure patients: HICMan (Heidelberg Integrated Case Management) : study protocol

Background: Chronic congestive heart failure (CHF) is a complex disease with rising prevalence, compromised quality of life (QoL), unplanned hospital admissions, high mortality and therefore high burden of illness. The delivery of care for these patients has been criticized and new strategies addressing crucial domains of care have been shown to be effective on patients' health outcomes, although these trials were conducted in secondary care or in highly organised Health Maintenance Organisations. It remains unclear whether a comprehensive primary care-based case management for the treating general practitioner (GP) can improve patients' QoL. Methods/Design: HICMan is a randomised controlled trial with patients as the unit of randomisation. Aim is to evaluate a structured, standardized and comprehensive complex intervention for patients with CHF in a 12-months follow-up trial. Patients from intervention group receive specific patient leaflets and documentation booklets as well as regular monitoring and screening by a prior trained practice nurse, who gives feedback to the GP upon urgency. Monitoring and screening address aspects of disease-specific selfmanagement, (non)pharmacological adherence and psychosomatic and geriatric comorbidity. GPs are invited to provide a tailored structured counselling 4 times during the trial and receive an additional feedback on pharmacotherapy relevant to prognosis (data of baseline documentation). Patients from control group receive usual care by their GPs, who were introduced to guidelineoriented management and a tailored health counselling concept. Main outcome measurement for patients' QoL is the scale physical functioning of the SF-36 health questionnaire in a 12-month follow-up. Secondary outcomes are the disease specific QoL measured by the Kansas City Cardiomyopathy questionnaire (KCCQ), depression and anxiety disorders (PHQ-9, GAD-7), adherence (EHFScBS and SANA), quality of care measured by an adapted version of the Patient Chronic Illness Assessment of Care questionnaire (PACIC) and NTproBNP. In addition, comprehensive clinical data are collected about health status, comorbidity, medication and health care utilisation. Discussion: As the targeted patient group is mostly cared for and treated by GPs, a comprehensive primary care-based guideline implementation including somatic, psychosomatic and organisational aspects of the delivery of care (HICMAn) is a promising intervention applying proven strategies for optimal care. Trial registration: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN30822978

Al Qaeda at the bar: coordinating ideologues and mercenaries in terrorist organizations

Most terrorist groups have limited lifespans. A number of scholars and casual observers have noted that terrorist organizations often are comprised of two types of participants: ideologues or "true believers" dedicated to the group's cause, and mercenaries, who are adept at raising money through illegal means. The latter are interested primarily in their personal gains and have relatively little ideological commitment. Terrorist groups need both participants in order to function effectively. The purpose of the study is to understand the impact of communication on the compositions of terrorist groups. Three experimental treatments consider a coordination problem, and focus on the behavior of the mercenaries. Participants choose whether or not to participate in a terrorist attack. Payoffs are U-shaped in the number of participants, and increase with the number of successful attacks. The treatments allow communication between a leader and frontline fighters ("leader" treatment) or among the frontline fighters themselves ("communication" treatment). In the first treatment, a group leader can post messages to the members, which has a 19 % coordination success rate. For the communication treatment, all participants can post messages anonymously to each other, which yields a 27 % coordination success rate. By contrast, the baseline ("no communication" treatment) shows a success rate of 11 %. We conclude from our experimental evidence that disrupting communications among the frontline fighters is more effective in terminating terrorist organizations

Role of Condom Negotiation on Condom use among Women of Reproductive Age in three Districts in Tanzania.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: HIV/AIDS remains being a disease of great public health concern worldwide. In regions such as sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) where women are disproportionately infected with HIV, women are reportedly less likely capable of negotiating condom use. However, while knowledge of condom use for HIV prevention is extensive among men and women in many countries including Tanzania, evidence is limited about the role of condom negotiation on condom use among women in rural Tanzania. METHODS: Data originate from a cross-sectional survey of random households conducted in 2011 in Rufiji, Kilombero and Ulanga districts in Tanzania. The survey assessed health-seeking behaviour among women and children using a structured interviewer-administered questionnaire. A total of 2,614 women who were sexually experienced and aged 15--49 years were extracted from the main database for the current analysis. Linkage between condom negotiation and condom use at the last sexual intercourse was assessed using multivariate logistic regression. RESULTS: Prevalence of condom use at the last sexual intercourse was 22.2% overall, ranging from12.2% among married women to 54.9% among unmarried (single) women. Majority of the women (73.4%) reported being confident to negotiate condom use, and these women were significantly more likely than those who were not confident to have used a condom at the last sexual intercourse (OR = 3.13, 95% CI 2.22-4.41). This effect was controlled for marital status, age, education, religion, number of sexual partners, household wealth and knowledge of HIV prevention by condom use. CONCLUSION: Confidence to negotiate condom use is a significant predictor of actual condom use among women in rural Tanzania. Women especially unmarried ones or those in multiple partnerships should be empowered with condom negotiation skills to enhance their sexual and reproductive health outcomes

The Down syndrome brain in the presence and absence of fibrillar β-amyloidosis

People with Down syndrome (DS) have a neurodevelopmentally distinct brain and invariably developed amyloid neuropathology by age 50. This cross-sectional study aimed to provide a detailed account of DS brain morphology and the changes occuring with amyloid neuropathology. Forty-six adults with DS underwent structural and amyloid imaging-the latter using Pittsburgh compound B (PIB) to stratify the cohort into PIB-positive (n = 19) and PIB-negative (n = 27). Age-matched controls (n = 30) underwent structural imaging. Group differences in deep gray matter volumetry and cortical thickness were studied. PIB-negative people with DS have neurodevelopmentally atypical brain, characterized by disproportionately thicker frontal and occipitoparietal cortex and thinner motor cortex and temporal pole with larger putamina and smaller hippocampi than controls. In the presence of amyloid neuropathology, the DS brains demonstrated a strikingly similar pattern of posterior dominant cortical thinning and subcortical atrophy in the hippocampus, thalamus, and striatum, to that observed in non-DS Alzheimer's disease. Care must be taken to avoid underestimating amyloid-associated morphologic changes in DS due to disproportionate size of some subcortical structures and thickness of the cortex.This work was supported by the Medical Research Council (grant number: 98480 ). Additional support was received from the NIHR Cambridge Biomedical Research Centre, the NIHR Collaborations in Leadership for Applied Health Research and Care (CLAHRC) for the East of England, the NIHR Cambridge Dementia Biomedical Research Unit, the Down Syndrome Association and the Health Foundation

Potential climatic transitions with profound impact on Europe

We discuss potential transitions of six climatic subsystems with large-scale impact on Europe, sometimes denoted as tipping elements. These are the ice sheets on Greenland and West Antarctica, the Atlantic thermohaline circulation, Arctic sea ice, Alpine glaciers and northern hemisphere stratospheric ozone. Each system is represented by co-authors actively publishing in the corresponding field. For each subsystem we summarize the mechanism of a potential transition in a warmer climate along with its impact on Europe and assess the likelihood for such a transition based on published scientific literature. As a summary, the ‘tipping’ potential for each system is provided as a function of global mean temperature increase which required some subjective interpretation of scientific facts by the authors and should be considered as a snapshot of our current understanding. <br/

Fast and slow responses of Southern Ocean sea surface temperature to SAM in coupled climate models

We investigate how sea surface temperatures (SSTs) around Antarctica respond to the Southern An- nular Mode (SAM) on multiple timescales. To that end we examine the relationship between SAM and SST within unperturbed preindustrial control simulations of coupled general circulation models (GCMs) included in the Climate Modeling Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). We develop a technique to extract the re- sponse of the Southern Ocean SST (55◦S−70◦S) to a hypothetical step increase in the SAM index. We demonstrate that in many GCMs, the expected SST step re- sponse function is nonmonotonic in time. Following a shift to a positive SAM anomaly, an initial cooling regime can transition into surface warming around Antarctica. However, there are large differences across the CMIP5 ensemble. In some models the step response function never changes sign and cooling persists, while in other GCMs the SST anomaly crosses over from negative to positive values only three years after a step increase in the SAM. This intermodel diversity can be related to differences in the models’ climatological thermal ocean stratification in the region of seasonal sea ice around Antarctica. Exploiting this relationship, we use obser- vational data for the time-mean meridional and vertical temperature gradients to constrain the real Southern Ocean response to SAM on fast and slow timescales

Comprehensive Brain MRI Segmentation in High Risk Preterm Newborns

Most extremely preterm newborns exhibit cerebral atrophy/growth disturbances and white matter signal abnormalities on MRI at term-equivalent age. MRI brain volumes could serve as biomarkers for evaluating the effects of neonatal intensive care and predicting neurodevelopmental outcomes. This requires detailed, accurate, and reliable brain MRI segmentation methods. We describe our efforts to develop such methods in high risk newborns using a combination of manual and automated segmentation tools. After intensive efforts to accurately define structural boundaries, two trained raters independently performed manual segmentation of nine subcortical structures using axial T2-weighted MRI scans from 20 randomly selected extremely preterm infants. All scans were re-segmented by both raters to assess reliability. High intra-rater reliability was achieved, as assessed by repeatability and intra-class correlation coefficients (ICC range: 0.97 to 0.99) for all manually segmented regions. Inter-rater reliability was slightly lower (ICC range: 0.93 to 0.99). A semi-automated segmentation approach was developed that combined the parametric strengths of the Hidden Markov Random Field Expectation Maximization algorithm with non-parametric Parzen window classifier resulting in accurate white matter, gray matter, and CSF segmentation. Final manual correction of misclassification errors improved accuracy (similarity index range: 0.87 to 0.89) and facilitated objective quantification of white matter signal abnormalities. The semi-automated and manual methods were seamlessly integrated to generate full brain segmentation within two hours. This comprehensive approach can facilitate the evaluation of large cohorts to rigorously evaluate the utility of regional brain volumes as biomarkers of neonatal care and surrogate endpoints for neurodevelopmental outcomes

Early Evolution of Conserved Regulatory Sequences Associated with Development in Vertebrates

Comparisons between diverse vertebrate genomes have uncovered thousands of highly conserved non-coding sequences, an increasing number of which have been shown to function as enhancers during early development. Despite their extreme conservation over 500 million years from humans to cartilaginous fish, these elements appear to be largely absent in invertebrates, and, to date, there has been little understanding of their mode of action or the evolutionary processes that have modelled them. We have now exploited emerging genomic sequence data for the sea lamprey, Petromyzon marinus, to explore the depth of conservation of this type of element in the earliest diverging extant vertebrate lineage, the jawless fish (agnathans). We searched for conserved non-coding elements (CNEs) at 13 human gene loci and identified lamprey elements associated with all but two of these gene regions. Although markedly shorter and less well conserved than within jawed vertebrates, identified lamprey CNEs are able to drive specific patterns of expression in zebrafish embryos, which are almost identical to those driven by the equivalent human elements. These CNEs are therefore a unique and defining characteristic of all vertebrates. Furthermore, alignment of lamprey and other vertebrate CNEs should permit the identification of persistent sequence signatures that are responsible for common patterns of expression and contribute to the elucidation of the regulatory language in CNEs. Identifying the core regulatory code for development, common to all vertebrates, provides a foundation upon which regulatory networks can be constructed and might also illuminate how large conserved regulatory sequence blocks evolve and become fixed in genomic DNA