Direct and indirect effects of rotavirus vaccination: Comparing predictions from transmission dynamic models

Early observations from countries that have introduced rotavirus vaccination suggest that there may be indirect protection for unvaccinated individuals, but it is unclear whether these benefits will extend to the long term. Transmission dynamic models have attempted to quantify the indirect protection that might be expected from rotavirus vaccination in developed countries, but results have varied. To better understand the magnitude and sources of variability in model projections, we undertook a comparative analysis of transmission dynamic models for rotavirus. We fit five models to reported rotavirus gastroenteritis (RVGE) data from England and Wales, and evaluated outcomes for short- and long-term vaccination effects. All of our models reproduced the important features of rotavirus epidemics in England and Wales. Models predicted that during the initial year after vaccine introduction, incidence of severe RVGE would be reduced 1.8-2.9 times more than expected from the direct effects of the vaccine alone (28-50% at 90% coverage), but over a 5-year period following vaccine introduction severe RVGE would be reduced only by 1.1-1.7 times more than expected from the direct effects (54-90% at 90% coverage). Projections for the long-term reduction of severe RVGE ranged from a 55% reduction at full coverage to elimination with at least 80% coverage. Our models predicted short-term reductions in the incidence of RVGE that exceeded estimates of the direct effects, consistent with observations from the United States and other countries. Some of the models predicted that the short-term indirect benefits may be offset by a partial shifting of the burden of RVGE to older unvaccinated individuals. Nonetheless, even when such a shift occurs, the overall reduction in severe RVGE is considerable. Discrepancies among model predictions reflect uncertainties about age variation in the risk and reporting of RVGE, and the duration of natural and vaccine-induced immunity, highlighting important questions for future research

Inquiries into the Nature of Free Energy and Entropy in Respect to Biochemical Thermodynamics

Free energy and entropy are examined in detail from the standpoint of classical thermodynamics. The approach is logically based on the fact that thermodynamic work is mediated by thermal energy through the tendency for nonthermal energy to convert spontaneously into thermal energy and for thermal energy to distribute spontaneously and uniformly within the accessible space. The fact that free energy is a Second-Law, expendable energy that makes it possible for thermodynamic work to be done at finite rates is emphasized. Entropy, as originally defined, is pointed out to be the capacity factor for thermal energy that is hidden with respect to temperature; it serves to evaluate the practical quality of thermal energy and to account for changes in the amounts of latent thermal energies in systems maintained at constant temperature. A major objective was to clarify the means by which free energy is transferred and conserved in sequences of biological reactions coupled by freely diffusible intermediates. In achieving this objective it was found necessary to distinguish between a 'characteristic free energy' possessed by all First-Law energies in amounts equivalent to the amounts of the energies themselves and a 'free energy of concentration' that is intrinsically mechanical and relatively elusive in that it can appear to be free of First-Law energy. The findings in this regard serve to clarify the fact that the transfer of chemical potential energy from one repository to another along sequences of biological reactions of the above sort occurs through transfer of the First-Law energy as thermal energy and transfer of the Second-Law energy as free energy of concentration.Comment: 18-page PDF; major correction in APPENDIX; minor corrections elsewher

A robust experimental evaluation of automated multi-label classification methods

Automated Machine Learning (AutoML) has emerged to deal with the selection and configuration of algorithms for a given learning task. With the progression of AutoML, several effective methods were introduced, especially for traditional classification and regression problems. Apart from the AutoML success, several issues remain open. One issue, in particular, is the lack of ability of AutoML methods to deal with different types of data. Based on this scenario, this paper approaches AutoML for multi-label classification (MLC) problems. In MLC, each example can be simultaneously associated to several class labels, unlike the standard classification task, where an example is associated to just one class label. In this work, we provide a general comparison of five automated multi-label classification methods - two evolutionary methods, one Bayesian optimization method, one random search and one greedy search - on 14 datasets and three designed search spaces. Overall, we observe that the most prominent method is the one based on a canonical grammar-based genetic programming (GGP) search method, namely Auto-MEKAGGP. Auto-MEKAGGP presented the best average results in our comparison and was statistically better than all the other methods in different search spaces and evaluated measures, except when compared to the greedy search method

Long-Term Intravitreal Ranibizumab as a Potential Additional Risk Factor for Neurodegeneration in Parkinson's Disease: A Case Report.

In November 2012, a 72-year old patient was diagnosed with left eye wet age-related macular degeneration. The patient received three monthly intravitreal injections of ranibizumab, with complete resolution of retinal hemorrhage and edema and reinstatement of visual acuity. In May 2015, symptomatic relapse was detected. The patient was again treated with intravitreal ranibizumab, with overall six injections till the end of February 2016. In May 2016, the patient complained of left hand resting tremor, bradykinesia, and postural rigidity of head and trunk. A diagnosis of clinically established PD was made based on new criteria of the Movement Disorders Society. Single Photon Emission Computerized Tomography of the Dopamine Transporter with (123I) ioflupane documented a low Dopamine Transporter (DAT) uptake mostly in the right striatum. Due to the documented protective role of vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) on the dopaminergic neurons, intensive intravitreal injections of the anti-VEGF agent ranibizumab may have played as an additional risk factor accelerating the neurodegeneration process related to PD and the onset of the related clinical signs and symptoms

Criticality in strongly correlated fluids

In this brief review I will discuss criticality in strongly correlated fluids. Unlike simple fluids, molecules of which interact through short ranged isotropic potential, particles of strongly correlated fluids usually interact through long ranged forces of Coulomb or dipolar form. While for simple fluids mechanism of phase separation into liquid and gas was elucidated by van der Waals more than a century ago, the universality class of strongly correlated fluids, or in some cases even existence of liquid-gas phase separation remains uncertain.Comment: Proceedings of Scaling Concepts and Complex Systems, Merida, Mexic

Long-range interactions and non-extensivity in ferromagnetic spin models

The Ising model with ferromagnetic interactions that decay as $1/r^\alpha$ is analyzed in the non-extensive regime $0\leq\alpha\leq d$, where the thermodynamic limit is not defined. In order to study the asymptotic properties of the model in the $N\rightarrow\infty$ limit ($N$ being the number of spins) we propose a generalization of the Curie-Weiss model, for which the $N\rightarrow\infty$ limit is well defined for all $\alpha\geq 0$. We conjecture that mean field theory is {\it exact} in the last model for all $0\leq\alpha\leq d$. This conjecture is supported by Monte Carlo heat bath simulations in the $d=1$ case. Moreover, we confirm a recently conjectured scaling (Tsallis\cite{Tsallis}) which allows for a unification of extensive ($\alpha>d$) and non-extensive ($0\leq\alpha\leq d$) regimes.Comment: RevTex, 12 pages, 1 eps figur

Evidence of exactness of the mean field theory in the nonextensive regime of long-range spin models

The q-state Potts model with long-range interactions that decay as 1/r^alpha subjected to an uniform magnetic field on d-dimensional lattices is analized for different values of q in the nonextensive regime (alpha between 0 and d). We also consider the two dimensional antiferromagnetic Ising model with the same type of interactions. The mean field solution and Monte Carlo calculations for the equations of state for these models are compared. We show that, using a derived scaling which properly describes the nonextensive thermodynamic behaviour, both types of calculations show an excellent agreement in all the cases here considered, except for alpha=d. These results allow us to extend to nonextensive magnetic models a previous conjecture which states that the mean field theory is exact for the Ising one.Comment: 10 pages, 4 figure

Modeling acid-gas generation from boiling chloride brines

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>This study investigates the generation of HCl and other acid gases from boiling calcium chloride dominated waters at atmospheric pressure, primarily using numerical modeling. The main focus of this investigation relates to the long-term geologic disposal of nuclear waste at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, where pore waters around waste-emplacement tunnels are expected to undergo boiling and evaporative concentration as a result of the heat released by spent nuclear fuel. Processes that are modeled include boiling of highly concentrated solutions, gas transport, and gas condensation accompanied by the dissociation of acid gases, causing low-pH condensate.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Simple calculations are first carried out to evaluate condensate pH as a function of HCl gas fugacity and condensed water fraction for a vapor equilibrated with saturated calcium chloride brine at 50-150°C and 1 bar. The distillation of a calcium-chloride-dominated brine is then simulated with a reactive transport model using a brine composition representative of partially evaporated calcium-rich pore waters at Yucca Mountain. Results show a significant increase in boiling temperature from evaporative concentration, as well as low pH in condensates, particularly for dynamic systems where partial condensation takes place, which result in enrichment of HCl in condensates. These results are in qualitative agreement with experimental data from other studies.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The combination of reactive transport with multicomponent brine chemistry to study evaporation, boiling, and the potential for acid gas generation at the proposed Yucca Mountain repository is seen as an improvement relative to previously applied simpler batch evaporation models. This approach allows the evaluation of thermal, hydrological, and chemical (THC) processes in a coupled manner, and modeling of settings much more relevant to actual field conditions than the distillation experiment considered. The actual and modeled distillation experiments do not represent expected conditions in an emplacement drift, but nevertheless illustrate the potential for acid-gas generation at moderate temperatures (<150°C).</p

Ion association in concentrated NaCI brines from ambient to supercritical conditions: results from classical molecular dynamics simulations

Highly concentrated NaCl brines are important geothermal fluids; chloride complexation of metals in such brines increases the solubility of minerals and plays a fundamental role in the genesis of hydrothermal ore deposits. There is experimental evidence that the molecular nature of the NaCl–water system changes over the pressure–temperature range of the Earth's crust. A transition of concentrated NaCl–H(2)O brines to a "hydrous molten salt" at high P and T has been argued to stabilize an aqueous fluid phase in the deep crust. In this work, we have done molecular dynamic simulations using classical potentials to determine the nature of concentrated (0.5–16 m) NaCl–water mixtures under ambient (25°C, 1 bar), hydrothermal (325°C, 1 kbar) and deep crustal (625°C, 15 kbar) conditions. We used the well-established SPCE model for water together with the Smith and Dang Lennard-Jones potentials for the ions (J. Chem. Phys., 1994, 100, 3757). With increasing temperature at 1 kbar, the dielectric constant of water decreases to give extensive ion-association and the formation of polyatomic (Na(n)Cl(m))(n-m )clusters in addition to simple NaCl ion pairs. Large polyatomic (Na(n)Cl(m))(n-m )clusters resemble what would be expected in a hydrous NaCl melt in which water and NaCl were completely miscible. Although ion association decreases with pressure, temperatures of 625°C are not enough to overcome pressures of 15 kbar; consequently, there is still enhanced Na–Cl association in brines under deep crustal conditions