The occupation of a box as a toy model for the seismic cycle of a fault

We illustrate how a simple statistical model can describe the quasiperiodic occurrence of large earthquakes. The model idealizes the loading of elastic energy in a seismic fault by the stochastic filling of a box. The emptying of the box after it is full is analogous to the generation of a large earthquake in which the fault relaxes after having been loaded to its failure threshold. The duration of the filling process is analogous to the seismic cycle, the time interval between two successive large earthquakes in a particular fault. The simplicity of the model enables us to derive the statistical distribution of its seismic cycle. We use this distribution to fit the series of earthquakes with magnitude around 6 that occurred at the Parkfield segment of the San Andreas fault in California. Using this fit, we estimate the probability of the next large earthquake at Parkfield and devise a simple forecasting strategy.Comment: Final version of the published paper, with an erratum and an unpublished appendix with some proof

Hydrodynamic turbulence and intermittent random fields

In this article, we construct two families of nonsymmetrical multifractal fields. One of these families is used for the modelization of the velocity field of turbulent flows.Comment: 25 Pages; to appear in Communications in Mathematical Physic

Protocol for: Sheffield Obesity Trial (SHOT): A randomised controlled trial of exercise therapy and mental health outcomes in obese adolescents [ISRCNT83888112]

Background While obesity is known to have many physiological consequences, the psychopathology of this condition has not featured prominently in the literature. Cross-sectional studies have indicated that obese children have increased odds of experiencing poor quality of life and mental health. However, very limited trial evidence has examined the efficacy of exercise therapy for enhancing mental health outcomes in obese children, and the Sheffield Obesity Trial (SHOT) will provide evidence of the efficacy of supervised exercise therapy in obese young people aged 11–16 years versus usual care and an attention-control intervention. Method/design SHOT is a randomised controlled trial where obese young people are randomised to receive; (1) exercise therapy, (2) attention-control intervention (involving body-conditioning exercises and games that do not involve aerobic activity), or (3) usual care. The exercise therapy and attention-control sessions will take place three times per week for eight weeks and a six-week home programme will follow this. Ninety adolescents aged between 11–16 years referred from a children's hospital for evaluation of obesity or via community advertisements will need to complete the study. Participants will be recruited according to the following criteria: (1) clinically obese and aged 11–16 years (Body Mass Index Centile > 98th UK standard) (2) no medical condition that would restrict ability to be active three times per week for eight weeks and (3) not diagnosed with insulin dependent diabetes or receiving oral steroids. Assessments of outcomes will take place at baseline, as well as four (intervention midpoint) and eight weeks (end of intervention) from baseline. Participants will be reassessed on outcome measures five and seven months from baseline. The primary endpoint is physical self-perceptions. Secondary outcomes include physical activity, self-perceptions, depression, affect, aerobic fitness and BMI

Physical activity for antenatal and postnatal depression in women attempting to quit smoking: randomised controlled trial

Background: Antenatal depression is associated with harmful consequences for both the mother and child. One intervention that might be effective is participation in regular physical activity although data on this question in pregnant smokers is currently lacking. Methods: Women were randomised to six-weekly sessions of smoking cessation behavioural-support, or to the same support plus 14 sessions combining treadmill exercise and physical activity consultations. Results: Among 784 participants (mean gestation 16-weeks), EPDS was significantly higher in the physical activity group versus usual care at end-of-pregnancy (mean group difference (95% confidence intervals (CIs)): 0.95 (0.08 to 1.83). There was no significant difference at six-months postpartum. Conclusion: A pragmatic intervention to increase physical activity in pregnant smokers did not prevent depression at end-of-pregnancy or at six-months postpartum. More effective physical activity interventions are needed in this population. Trial registration: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN48600346. The trial was prospectively registered on 21/07/2008

Differential regulation of myeloid leukemias by the bone marrow microenvironment

Like their normal hematopoietic stem cell counterparts, leukemia stem cells (LSC) in chronic myelogenous leukemia (CML) and acute myeloid leukemia (AML) are presumed to reside in specific niches in the bone marrow microenvironment (BMM)1, and may be the cause of relapse following chemotherapy.2 Targeting the niche is a novel strategy to eliminate persistent and drug-resistant LSC. CD443,4 and IL-65 have been implicated previously in the LSC niche. Transforming growth factor (TGF)-β1 is released during bone remodeling6 and plays a role in maintenance of CML LSCs7, but a role for TGF-β1 from the BMM has not been defined. Here, we show that alteration of the BMM by osteoblastic cell-specific activation of the parathyroid hormone (PTH) receptor8,9 attenuates BCR-ABL1-induced CML-like myeloproliferative neoplasia (MPN)10 but enhances MLL-AF9-induced AML11 in mouse transplantation models, possibly through opposing effects of increased TGF-β1 on the respective LSC. PTH treatment caused a 15-fold decrease in LSCs in wildtype mice with CML-like MPN, and reduced engraftment of immune deficient mice with primary human CML cells. These results demonstrate that LSC niches in chronic and acute myeloid leukemias are distinct, and suggest that modulation of the BMM by PTH may be a feasible strategy to reduce LSC, a prerequisite for the cure of CML