A frequentist framework of inductive reasoning

Reacting against the limitation of statistics to decision procedures, R. A. Fisher proposed for inductive reasoning the use of the fiducial distribution, a parameter-space distribution of epistemological probability transferred directly from limiting relative frequencies rather than computed according to the Bayes update rule. The proposal is developed as follows using the confidence measure of a scalar parameter of interest. (With the restriction to one-dimensional parameter space, a confidence measure is essentially a fiducial probability distribution free of complications involving ancillary statistics.) A betting game establishes a sense in which confidence measures are the only reliable inferential probability distributions. The equality between the probabilities encoded in a confidence measure and the coverage rates of the corresponding confidence intervals ensures that the measure's rule for assigning confidence levels to hypotheses is uniquely minimax in the game. Although a confidence measure can be computed without any prior distribution, previous knowledge can be incorporated into confidence-based reasoning. To adjust a p-value or confidence interval for prior information, the confidence measure from the observed data can be combined with one or more independent confidence measures representing previous agent opinion. (The former confidence measure may correspond to a posterior distribution with frequentist matching of coverage probabilities.) The representation of subjective knowledge in terms of confidence measures rather than prior probability distributions preserves approximate frequentist validity.Comment: major revisio

The effect of on-line position correction on the dose distribution in focal radiotherapy for bladder cancer

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The purpose of this study was to determine the dosimetric effect of on-line position correction for bladder tumor irradiation and to find methods to predict and handle this effect.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>For 25 patients with unifocal bladder cancer intensity modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) with 5 beams was planned. The requirement for each plan was that 99% of the target volume received 95% of the prescribed dose. Tumor displacements from -2.0 cm to 2.0 cm in each dimension were simulated, using 0.5 cm increments, resulting in 729 simulations per patient. We assumed that on-line correction for the tumor was applied perfectly. We determined the correlation between the change in D_99%and the change in path length, which is defined here as the distance from the skin to the isocenter for each beam. In addition the margin needed to avoid underdosage was determined and the probability that an underdosage occurs in a real treatment was calculated.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Adjustments for tumor displacement with perfect on-line position correction resulted in an altered dose distribution. The altered fraction dose to the target varied from 91.9% to 100.4% of the prescribed dose. The mean D_99%(± SD) was 95.8% ± 1.0%. There was a modest linear correlation between the difference in D_99%and the change in path length of the beams after correction (R²= 0.590). The median probability that a systematic underdosage occurs in a real treatment was 0.23% (range: 0 - 24.5%). A margin of 2 mm reduced that probability to < 0.001% in all patients.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>On-line position correction does result in an altered target coverage, due to changes in average path length after position correction. An extra margin can be added to prevent underdosage.</p

Intrafraction motion of the prostate during an IMRT session: a fiducial-based 3D measurement with Cone-beam CT

Background: Image-guidance systems allow accurate interfractional repositioning of IMRT treatments, however, these may require up to 15 minutes. Therefore intrafraction motion might have an impact on treatment precision. 3D geometric data regarding intrafraction prostate motion are rare; we therefore assessed its magnitude with pre- and post-treatment fiducial-based imaging with cone-beam-CT (CBCT). Methods: 39 IMRT fractions in 5 prostate cancer patients after (125)I-seed implantation were evaluated. Patient position was corrected based on the (125)I-seeds after pre-treatment CBCT. Immediately after treatment delivery, a second CBCT was performed. Differences in bone- and fiducial position were measured by seed-based grey-value matching. Results: Fraction time was 13.6 +/- 1.6 minutes. Median overall displacement vector length of (125)Iseeds was 3 mm (M = 3 mm, Sigma = 0.9 mm, sigma = 1.7 mm; M: group systematic error, Sigma: SD of systematic error, sigma: SD of random error). Median displacement vector of bony structures was 1.84 mm (M = 2.9 mm, Sigma = 1 mm, sigma = 3.2 mm). Median displacement vector length of the prostate relative to bony structures was 1.9 mm (M = 3 mm, Sigma = 1.3 mm, sigma = 2.6 mm). Conclusion: a) Overall displacement vector length during an IMRT session is &lt; 3 mm. b) Positioning devices reducing intrafraction bony displacements can further reduce overall intrafraction motion. c) Intrafraction prostate motion relative to bony structures is &lt; 2 mm and may be further reduced by institutional protocols and reduction of IMRT duration

Global patient outcomes after elective surgery: prospective cohort study in 27 low-, middle- and high-income countries.

BACKGROUND: As global initiatives increase patient access to surgical treatments, there remains a need to understand the adverse effects of surgery and define appropriate levels of perioperative care. METHODS: We designed a prospective international 7-day cohort study of outcomes following elective adult inpatient surgery in 27 countries. The primary outcome was in-hospital complications. Secondary outcomes were death following a complication (failure to rescue) and death in hospital. Process measures were admission to critical care immediately after surgery or to treat a complication and duration of hospital stay. A single definition of critical care was used for all countries. RESULTS: A total of 474 hospitals in 19 high-, 7 middle- and 1 low-income country were included in the primary analysis. Data included 44 814 patients with a median hospital stay of 4 (range 2-7) days. A total of 7508 patients (16.8%) developed one or more postoperative complication and 207 died (0.5%). The overall mortality among patients who developed complications was 2.8%. Mortality following complications ranged from 2.4% for pulmonary embolism to 43.9% for cardiac arrest. A total of 4360 (9.7%) patients were admitted to a critical care unit as routine immediately after surgery, of whom 2198 (50.4%) developed a complication, with 105 (2.4%) deaths. A total of 1233 patients (16.4%) were admitted to a critical care unit to treat complications, with 119 (9.7%) deaths. Despite lower baseline risk, outcomes were similar in low- and middle-income compared with high-income countries. CONCLUSIONS: Poor patient outcomes are common after inpatient surgery. Global initiatives to increase access to surgical treatments should also address the need for safe perioperative care. STUDY REGISTRATION: ISRCTN5181700

Electromechanical interactions in a carbon nanotube based thin film field emitting diode

Carbon nanotubes (CNTs) have emerged as promising candidates for biomedical x-ray devices and other applications of field emission. CNTs grown/deposited in a thin film are used as cathodes for field emission. In spite of the good performance of such cathodes, the procedure to estimate the device current is not straightforward and the required insight towards design optimization is not well developed. In this paper, we report an analysis aided by a computational model and experiments by which the process of evolution and self-assembly (reorientation) of CNTs is characterized and the device current is estimated. The modeling approach involves two steps: (i) a phenomenological description of the degradation and fragmentation of CNTs and (ii) a mechanics based modeling of electromechanical interaction among CNTs during field emission. A computational scheme is developed by which the states of CNTs are updated in a time incremental manner. Finally, the device current is obtained by using the Fowler–Nordheim equation for field emission and by integrating the current density over computational cells. A detailed analysis of the results reveals the deflected shapes of the CNTs in an ensemble and the extent to which the initial state of geometry and orientation angles affect the device current. Experimental results confirm these effects