A frequentist framework of inductive reasoning

Reacting against the limitation of statistics to decision procedures, R. A. Fisher proposed for inductive reasoning the use of the fiducial distribution, a parameter-space distribution of epistemological probability transferred directly from limiting relative frequencies rather than computed according to the Bayes update rule. The proposal is developed as follows using the confidence measure of a scalar parameter of interest. (With the restriction to one-dimensional parameter space, a confidence measure is essentially a fiducial probability distribution free of complications involving ancillary statistics.) A betting game establishes a sense in which confidence measures are the only reliable inferential probability distributions. The equality between the probabilities encoded in a confidence measure and the coverage rates of the corresponding confidence intervals ensures that the measure's rule for assigning confidence levels to hypotheses is uniquely minimax in the game. Although a confidence measure can be computed without any prior distribution, previous knowledge can be incorporated into confidence-based reasoning. To adjust a p-value or confidence interval for prior information, the confidence measure from the observed data can be combined with one or more independent confidence measures representing previous agent opinion. (The former confidence measure may correspond to a posterior distribution with frequentist matching of coverage probabilities.) The representation of subjective knowledge in terms of confidence measures rather than prior probability distributions preserves approximate frequentist validity.Comment: major revisio

Non-Disruptive Tactics of Suppression Are Superior in Countering Terrorism, Insurgency, and Financial Panics

BACKGROUND: Suppressing damaging aggregate behaviors such as insurgency, terrorism, and financial panics are important tasks of the state. Each outcome of these aggregate behaviors is an emergent property of a system in which each individual's action depends on a subset of others' actions, given by each individual's network of interactions. Yet there are few explicit comparisons of strategies for suppression, and none that fully incorporate the interdependence of individual behavior. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Here I show that suppression tactics that do not require the removal of individuals from networks of interactions are nearly always more effective than those that do. I find using simulation analysis of a general model of interdependent behavior that the degree to which such less disruptive suppression tactics are superior to more disruptive ones increases in the propensity of individuals to engage in the behavior in question. CONCLUSIONS: Thus, hearts-and-minds approaches are generally more effective than force in counterterrorism and counterinsurgency, and partial insurance is usually a better tactic than gag rules in quelling financial panics. Differences between suppression tactics are greater when individual incentives to support terrorist or insurgent groups, or susceptibilities to financial panic, are higher. These conclusions have utility for policy-makers seeking to end bloody conflicts and prevent financial panics. As the model also applies to mass protest, its conclusions provide insight as well into the likely effects of different suppression strategies undertaken by authoritarian regimes seeking to hold on to power in the face of mass movements seeking to end them

Measurement of the branching fraction and CP content for the decay B(0) -> D(*+)D(*-)

This is the pre-print version of the Article. The official published version can be accessed from the links below. Copyright @ 2002 APS.We report a measurement of the branching fraction of the decay B0→D*+D*- and of the CP-odd component of its final state using the BABAR detector. With data corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 20.4  fb-1 collected at the Υ(4S) resonance during 1999–2000, we have reconstructed 38 candidate signal events in the mode B0→D*+D*- with an estimated background of 6.2±0.5 events. From these events, we determine the branching fraction to be B(B0→D*+D*-)=[8.3±1.6(stat)±1.2(syst)]×10-4. The measured CP-odd fraction of the final state is 0.22±0.18(stat)±0.03(syst).This work is supported by DOE and NSF (USA), NSERC (Canada), IHEP (China), CEA and CNRS-IN2P3 (France), BMBF (Germany), INFN (Italy), NFR (Norway), MIST (Russia), and PPARC (United Kingdom). Individuals have received support from the A.P. Sloan Foundation, Research Corporation, and Alexander von Humboldt Foundation

Measurement of D-s(+) and D-s(*+) production in B meson decays and from continuum e(+)e(-) annihilation at √s=10.6 GeV

This is the pre-print version of the Article. The official published version can be accessed from the links below. Copyright @ 2002 APSNew measurements of Ds+ and Ds*+ meson production rates from B decays and from qq̅ continuum events near the Υ(4S) resonance are presented. Using 20.8 fb-1 of data on the Υ(4S) resonance and 2.6 fb-1 off-resonance, we find the inclusive branching fractions B(B⃗Ds+X)=(10.93±0.19±0.58±2.73)% and B(B⃗Ds*+X)=(7.9±0.8±0.7±2.0)%, where the first error is statistical, the second is systematic, and the third is due to the Ds+→φπ+ branching fraction uncertainty. The production cross sections σ(e+e-→Ds+X)×B(Ds+→φπ+)=7.55±0.20±0.34pb and σ(e+e-→Ds*±X)×B(Ds+→φπ+)=5.8±0.7±0.5pb are measured at center-of-mass energies about 40 MeV below the Υ(4S) mass. The branching fractions ΣB(B⃗Ds(*)+D(*))=(5.07±0.14±0.30±1.27)% and ΣB(B⃗Ds*+D(*))=(4.1±0.2±0.4±1.0)% are determined from the Ds(*)+ momentum spectra. The mass difference m(Ds+)-m(D+)=98.4±0.1±0.3MeV/c2 is also measured.This work was supported by DOE and NSF (USA), NSERC (Canada), IHEP (China), CEA and CNRS-IN2P3 (France), BMBF (Germany), INFN (Italy), NFR (Norway), MIST (Russia), and PPARC (United Kingdom). Individuals have received support from the Swiss NSF, A. P. Sloan Foundation, Research Corporation, and Alexander von Humboldt Foundation

Search for rare quark-annihilation decays, B --> Ds(*) Phi

We report on searches for B- --> Ds- Phi and B- --> Ds*- Phi. In the context of the Standard Model, these decays are expected to be highly suppressed since they proceed through annihilation of the b and u-bar quarks in the B- meson. Our results are based on 234 million Upsilon(4S) --> B Bbar decays collected with the BABAR detector at SLAC. We find no evidence for these decays, and we set Bayesian 90% confidence level upper limits on the branching fractions BF(B- --> Ds- Phi) Ds*- Phi)<1.2x10^(-5). These results are consistent with Standard Model expectations.Comment: 8 pages, 3 postscript figues, submitted to Phys. Rev. D (Rapid Communications

The Quality of Registration of Clinical Trials

BACKGROUND: Lack of transparency in clinical trial conduct, publication bias and selective reporting bias are still important problems in medical research. Through clinical trials registration, it should be possible to take steps towards resolving some of these problems. However, previous evaluations of registered records of clinical trials have shown that registered information is often incomplete and non-meaningful. If these studies are accurate, this negates the possible benefits of registration of clinical trials. METHODS AND FINDINGS: A 5% sample of records of clinical trials that were registered between 17 June 2008 and 17 June 2009 was taken from the International Clinical Trials Registry Platform (ICTRP) database and assessed for the presence of contact information, the presence of intervention specifics in drug trials and the quality of primary and secondary outcome reporting. 731 records were included. More than half of the records were registered after recruitment of the first participant. The name of a contact person was available in 94.4% of records from non-industry funded trials and 53.7% of records from industry funded trials. Either an email address or a phone number was present in 76.5% of non-industry funded trial records and in 56.5% of industry funded trial records. Although a drug name or company serial number was almost always provided, other drug intervention specifics were often omitted from registration. Of 3643 reported outcomes, 34.9% were specific measures with a meaningful time frame. CONCLUSIONS: Clinical trials registration has the potential to contribute substantially to improving clinical trial transparency and reducing publication bias and selective reporting. These potential benefits are currently undermined by deficiencies in the provision of information in key areas of registered records

Estimating the individualized HIV-1 genetic barrier to resistance using a nelfinavir fitness landscape

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Failure on Highly Active Anti-Retroviral Treatment is often accompanied with development of antiviral resistance to one or more drugs included in the treatment. In general, the virus is more likely to develop resistance to drugs with a lower genetic barrier. Previously, we developed a method to reverse engineer, from clinical sequence data, a fitness landscape experienced by HIV-1 under nelfinavir (NFV) treatment. By simulation of evolution over this landscape, the individualized genetic barrier to NFV resistance may be estimated for an isolate.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We investigated the association of estimated genetic barrier with risk of development of NFV resistance at virological failure, in 201 patients that were predicted fully susceptible to NFV at baseline, and found that a higher estimated genetic barrier was indeed associated with lower odds for development of resistance at failure (OR 0.62 (0.45 - 0.94), per additional mutation needed, p = .02).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Thus, variation in individualized genetic barrier to NFV resistance may impact effective treatment options available after treatment failure. If similar results apply for other drugs, then estimated genetic barrier may be a new clinical tool for choice of treatment regimen, which allows consideration of available treatment options after virological failure.</p

Binding of protegrin-1 to Pseudomonas aeruginosa and Burkholderia cepacia

BACKGROUND: Pseudomonas aeruginosa and Burkholderia cepacia infections of cystic fibrosis patients' lungs are often resistant to conventional antibiotic therapy. Protegrins are antimicrobial peptides with potent activity against many bacteria, including P. aeruginosa. The present study evaluates the correlation between protegrin-1 (PG-1) sensitivity/resistance and protegrin binding in P. aeruginosa and B. cepacia. METHODS: The PG-1 sensitivity/resistance and PG-1 binding properties of P. aeruginosa and B. cepacia were assessed using radial diffusion assays, radioiodinated PG-1, and surface plasmon resonance (BiaCore). RESULTS: The six P. aeruginosa strains examined were very sensitive to PG-1, exhibiting minimal active concentrations from 0.0625–0.5 μg/ml in radial diffusion assays. In contrast, all five B. cepacia strains examined were greater than 10-fold to 100-fold more resistant, with minimal active concentrations ranging from 6–10 μg/ml. When incubated with a radioiodinated variant of PG-1, a sensitive P. aeruginosa strain bound considerably more protegrin molecules per cell than a resistant B. cepacia strain. Binding/diffusion and surface plasmon resonance assays revealed that isolated lipopolysaccharide (LPS) and lipid A from the sensitive P. aeruginosa strains bound PG-1 more effectively than LPS and lipid A from resistant B. cepacia strains. CONCLUSION: These findings support the hypothesis that the relative resistance of B. cepacia to protegrin is due to a reduced number of PG-1 binding sites on the lipid A moiety of its LPS