Low-resolution spectroscopy of main sequence stars belonging to 12 Galactic globular clusters. I. CH and CN band strength variations

Globular clusters show abundance variations for light elements that are not yet well understood. The preferred explanation involves a self-enrichment scenario, with two subsequent generations of stars. Observations of main sequence stars allow us to investigate the signature of this chemically processed material without the complicating effects of internal mixing. Our goal is to investigate the C-N anti-correlation with low-resolution spectroscopy of 20-50 stars fainter than the first dredge-up in seven globular clusters (NGC288, NGC1851, NGC5927, NGC6352, NGC6388, and Pal12) with different properties. We complemented our observations with 47~Tuc archival data, with four additional clusters from the literature (M15, M22, M55, NGC362), and with additional literature data on NGC288. In this first paper, we measured the strength of CN and CH band indices, and we investigated the anti-correlation and bimodality of these indices. We compared r_CN, the ratio of stars belonging to the CN-strong and weak groups, with 15 different cluster parameters. We clearly see bimodal anti-correlation of the CH and CN band stregths in the metal-rich clusters (Pal12, 47Tuc, NGC6352, NGC5927). Only M15 among the metal-poor clusters shows a clearly bimodal anti-correlation. We found weak correlations (sligthly above 1 sigma) of r_CN with the cluster orbital parameters, present-day total mass, cluster concentration, and age. Our findings support the self-enrichment scenario, and suggest that the occurrence of more than two major generations of stars in a GGC should be rare. Small additional generations (<10-20% of the total) would be difficult to detect with our samples. The first generation, which corresponds to the CN-weak stars, usually contains more stars than the second one (=0.82+/-0.29), as opposed to results based on the Na-O anti-correlations.Comment: 18 pages, 10 figures, 1 electronic table, accepted for publication in A&A (language edited version

VLT Observations of Turnoff stars in the Globular Cluster NGC 6397

VLT-UVES high resolution spectra of seven turnoff stars in the metal-poor globular cluster NGC 6397 have been obtained. Atmospheric parameters and abundances of several elements (Li, Na, Mg, Ca, Sc, Ti, Cr, Fe, Ni, Zn and Ba) were derived for program stars. The mean iron abundance is [Fe/H] = -2.02, with no star-to-star variation. The mean abundances of the alpha-elements (Ca, Ti) and of the iron-peak elements (Sc, Cr, Ni) are consistent with abundances derived for field stars of similar metallicity. Magnesium is also almost solar, consistent with the values found by Idiart & Th\'evenin (2000) when non-LTE effects (NLTE hereafter) are taken into account. The sodium abundance derived for five stars is essentially solar, but one object (A447) is clearly Na deficient. These results are compatible with the expected abundance range estimated from the stochastic evolutionary halo model by Argast et al. (2000) when at the epoch of [Fe/H] $\sim$ -2 the interstellar medium is supposed to become well-mixed.Comment: to appear in A&

Prediction of uncomplicated pregnancies in obese women: a prospective multicentre study.

BACKGROUND: All obese pregnant women are considered at equal high risk with respect to complications in pregnancy and birth, and are commonly managed through resource-intensive care pathways. However, the identification of maternal characteristics associated with normal pregnancy outcomes could assist in the management of these pregnancies. The present study aims to identify the factors associated with uncomplicated pregnancy and birth in obese women, and to assess their predictive performance. METHODS: Data form obese women (BMI ≥ 30 kg/m2) with singleton pregnancies included in the UPBEAT trial were used in this analysis. Multivariable logistic regression was used to identify sociodemographic, clinical and biochemical factors at 15+0 to 18+6 weeks' gestation associated with uncomplicated pregnancy and birth, defined as delivery of a term live-born infant without antenatal or labour complications. Predictive performance was assessed using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). Internal validation and calibration were also performed. Women were divided into fifths of risk and pregnancy outcomes were compared between groups. Sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values were calculated using the upper fifth as the positive screening group. RESULTS: Amongst 1409 participants (BMI 36.4, SD 4.8 kg/m2), the prevalence of uncomplicated pregnancy and birth was 36% (505/1409). Multiparity and increased plasma adiponectin, maternal age, systolic blood pressure and HbA1c were independently associated with uncomplicated pregnancy and birth. These factors achieved an AUROC of 0.72 (0.68-0.76) and the model was well calibrated. Prevalence of gestational diabetes, preeclampsia and other hypertensive disorders, preterm birth, and postpartum haemorrhage decreased whereas spontaneous vaginal delivery increased across the fifths of increasing predicted risk of uncomplicated pregnancy and birth. Sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values were 38%, 89%, 63% and 74%, respectively. A simpler model including clinical factors only (no biomarkers) achieved an AUROC of 0.68 (0.65-0.71), with sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values of 31%, 86%, 56% and 69%, respectively. CONCLUSION: Clinical factors and biomarkers can be used to help stratify pregnancy and delivery risk amongst obese pregnant women. Further studies are needed to explore alternative pathways of care for obese women demonstrating different risk profiles for uncomplicated pregnancy and birth

Early Antenatal Prediction of Gestational Diabetes in Obese Women: Development of Prediction Tools for Targeted Intervention.

All obese women are categorised as being of equally high risk of gestational diabetes (GDM) whereas the majority do not develop the disorder. Lifestyle and pharmacological interventions in unselected obese pregnant women have been unsuccessful in preventing GDM. Our aim was to develop a prediction tool for early identification of obese women at high risk of GDM to facilitate targeted interventions in those most likely to benefit. Clinical and anthropometric data and non-fasting blood samples were obtained at 15+0-18+6 weeks' gestation in 1303 obese pregnant women from UPBEAT, a randomised controlled trial of a behavioural intervention. Twenty one candidate biomarkers associated with insulin resistance, and a targeted nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) metabolome were measured. Prediction models were constructed using stepwise logistic regression. Twenty six percent of women (n = 337) developed GDM (International Association of Diabetes and Pregnancy Study Groups criteria). A model based on clinical and anthropometric variables (age, previous GDM, family history of type 2 diabetes, systolic blood pressure, sum of skinfold thicknesses, waist:height and neck:thigh ratios) provided an area under the curve of 0.71 (95%CI 0.68-0.74). This increased to 0.77 (95%CI 0.73-0.80) with addition of candidate biomarkers (random glucose, haemoglobin A1c (HbA1c), fructosamine, adiponectin, sex hormone binding globulin, triglycerides), but was not improved by addition of NMR metabolites (0.77; 95%CI 0.74-0.81). Clinically translatable models for GDM prediction including readily measurable variables e.g. mid-arm circumference, age, systolic blood pressure, HbA1c and adiponectin are described. Using a ≥35% risk threshold, all models identified a group of high risk obese women of whom approximately 50% (positive predictive value) later developed GDM, with a negative predictive value of 80%. Tools for early pregnancy identification of obese women at risk of GDM are described which could enable targeted interventions for GDM prevention in women who will benefit the most

Combining Computational Fluid Dynamics and Agent-Based Modeling: A New Approach to Evacuation Planning

We introduce a novel hybrid of two fields—Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) and Agent-Based Modeling (ABM)—as a powerful new technique for urban evacuation planning. CFD is a predominant technique for modeling airborne transport of contaminants, while ABM is a powerful approach for modeling social dynamics in populations of adaptive individuals. The hybrid CFD-ABM method is capable of simulating how large, spatially-distributed populations might respond to a physically realistic contaminant plume. We demonstrate the overall feasibility of CFD-ABM evacuation design, using the case of a hypothetical aerosol release in Los Angeles to explore potential effectiveness of various policy regimes. We conclude by arguing that this new approach can be powerfully applied to arbitrary population centers, offering an unprecedented preparedness and catastrophic event response tool

Abundances in giant stars of the globular cluster NGC 6752

Recent theoretical yields and chemical evolution models demonstrate that intermediate-mass AGB stars cannot reproduce the observed abundance distributions of O, Na, Mg, and Al. As a further observational test of this finding, we present elemental abundance ratios [X/Fe] for 20 elements in 38 bright giants of the globular cluster NGC 6752. Our mean abundance ratios [X/Fe] are in good agreement with previous studies of this cluster and are also consistent with other globular clusters and field stars at the same metallicity. The mean abundance ratios [Ba/Eu] and [La/Eu] exhibit values, in agreement with field stars at the same metallicity, that lie approximately midway between the pure r-process and the solar (s-process + r-process) mix, indicating that AGB stars have played a role in the chemical evolution of the proto-cluster gas. For the first time, we find possible evidence for an abundance variation for elements heavier than Al in this cluster. We find a correlation between [Si/Fe] and [Al/Fe] which is consistent with the abundance anomalies being synthesized via proton captures at high temperatures. Leakage from the Mg-Al chain into 28Si may explain the Si excess in stars with the highest [Al/Fe]. We identify correlations between [Y/Fe] and [Al/Fe], [Zr/Fe] and [Al/Fe], and [Ba/Fe] and [Al/Fe] suggesting that Y, Zr, and Ba abundances may increase by about 0.1 dex as Al increases by about 1.3 dex. While the correlations are statistically significant, the amplitudes of the variations are small. If the small variations in Y, Zr, and Ba are indeed real, then the synthesis of the Al anomalies must have taken place within an unknown class of stars that also ran the s-process. [Abridged]Comment: Accepted for publication in A&

Multiple populations in globular clusters. Lessons learned from the Milky Way globular clusters

Recent progress in studies of globular clusters has shown that they are not simple stellar populations, being rather made of multiple generations. Evidence stems both from photometry and spectroscopy. A new paradigm is then arising for the formation of massive star clusters, which includes several episodes of star formation. While this provides an explanation for several features of globular clusters, including the second parameter problem, it also opens new perspectives about the relation between globular clusters and the halo of our Galaxy, and by extension of all populations with a high specific frequency of globular clusters, such as, e.g., giant elliptical galaxies. We review progress in this area, focusing on the most recent studies. Several points remain to be properly understood, in particular those concerning the nature of the polluters producing the abundance pattern in the clusters and the typical timescale, the range of cluster masses where this phenomenon is active, and the relation between globular clusters and other satellites of our Galaxy.Comment: In press (The Astronomy and Astrophysics Review

The DESiGN trial (DEtection of Small for Gestational age Neonate), evaluating the effect of the Growth Assessment Protocol (GAP): study protocol for a randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Stillbirth rates in the United Kingdom (UK) are amongst the highest of all developed nations. The association between small-for-gestational-age (SGA) foetuses and stillbirth is well established, and observational studies suggest that improved antenatal detection of SGA babies may halve the stillbirth rate. The Growth Assessment Protocol (GAP) describes a complex intervention that includes risk assessment for SGA and screening using customised fundal-height growth charts. Increased detection of SGA from the use of GAP has been implicated in the reduction of stillbirth rates by 22%, in observational studies of UK regions where GAP uptake was high. This study will be the first randomised controlled trial examining the clinical efficacy, health economics and implementation of the GAP programme in the antenatal detection of SGA. METHODS/DESIGN: In this randomised controlled trial, clusters comprising a maternity unit (or National Health Service Trust) were randomised to either implementation of the GAP programme, or standard care. The primary outcome is the rate of antenatal ultrasound detection of SGA in infants found to be SGA at birth by both population and customised standards, as this is recognised as being the group with highest risk for perinatal morbidity and mortality. Secondary outcomes include antenatal detection of SGA by population centiles, antenatal detection of SGA by customised centiles, short-term maternal and neonatal outcomes, resource use and economic consequences, and a process evaluation of GAP implementation. Qualitative interviews will be performed to assess facilitators and barriers to implementation of GAP. DISCUSSION: This study will be the first to provide data and outcomes from a randomised controlled trial investigating the potential difference between the GAP programme compared to standard care for antenatal ultrasound detection of SGA infants. Accurate information on the performance and service provision requirements of the GAP protocol has the potential to inform national policy decisions on methods to reduce the rate of stillbirth. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Primary registry and trial identifying number: ISRCTN 67698474 . Registered on 2 November 2016