Evacuation planning in the Auckland Volcanic Field, New Zealand: a spatio-temporal approach for emergency management and transportation network decisions

Auckland is the largest city in New Zealand (pop. 1.5 million) and is situated atop an active monogenetic volcanic field. When volcanic activity next occurs, the most effective means of protecting the people who reside and work in the region will be to evacuate the danger zone prior to the eruption. This study investigates the evacuation demand throughout the Auckland Volcanic Field and the capacity of the transportation network to fulfil such a demand. Diurnal movements of the population are assessed and, due to the seemingly random pattern of eruptions in the past, a non-specific approach is adopted to determine spatial vulnerabilities at a micro-scale (neighbourhoods). We achieve this through the calculation of population-, household- and car-to-exit capacity ratios. Following an analysis of transportation hub functionality and the susceptibility of motorway bridges to a new eruption, modelling using dynamic route and traffic assignment was undertaken to determine various evacuation attributes at a macro-scale and forecast total network clearance times. Evacuation demand was found to be highly correlated to diurnal population movements and neighbourhood boundary types, a trend that was also evident in the evacuation capacity ratio results. Elevated population to evacuation capacity ratios occur during the day in and around the central city, and at night in many of the outlying suburbs. Low-mobility populations generally have better than average access to public transportation. Macro-scale vulnerability was far more contingent upon the destination of evacuees, with favourable results for evacuation within the region as opposed to outside the region. Clearance times for intra-regional evacuation ranged from one to nine hours, whereas those for inter-regional evacuation were found to be so high, that the results were unrealistic. Therefore, we conclude that, from a mobility standpoint, there is considerable merit to intra-regional evacuation

New minimal weight representations for left-to-right window methods

Abstract. For an integer w ≥ 2, a radix 2 representation is called a width-w nonadjacent form (w-NAF, for short) if each nonzero digit is an odd integer with absolute value less than 2 w−1, and of any w consecutive digits, at most one is nonzero. In elliptic curve cryptography, the w-NAF window method is used to efficiently compute nP where n is an integer and P is an elliptic curve point. We introduce a new family of radix 2 representations which use the same digits as the w-NAF but have the advantage that they result in a window method which uses less memory. This memory savings results from the fact that these new representations can be deduced using a very simple left-to-right algorithm. Further, we show that like the w-NAF, these new representations have a minimal number of nonzero digits. 1 Window Methods An operation fundamental to elliptic curve cryptography is scalar multiplication; that is, computing nP for an integer, n, and an elliptic curve point, P. A number of different algorithms have been proposed to perform this operation efficiently (see Ch. 3 of [4] for a recent survey). A variety of these algorithms, known as window methods, use the approach described in Algorithm 1.1. For example, suppose D = {0, 1, 3, 5, 7}. Using this digit set, Algorithm 1.1 first computes and stores P, 3P, 5P and 7P. After a D-radix 2 representation of n is computed its digits are read from left to right by the “for ” loop and nP is computed using doubling and addition operations (and no subtractions). One way to compute a D-radix 2 representation of n is to slide a 3-digit window from right to left across the {0, 1}-radix 2 representation of n (see Section 4). Using negative digits takes advantage of the fact that subtracting an elliptic curve point can be done just as efficiently as adding it. Suppose now that D

Discrimination, labour markets and the Labour Market Prospects of Older Workers: What Can a Legal Case Teach us?

As governments become increasingly concerned about the fiscal implications of the ageing population, labour market policies have sought to encourage mature workers to remain in the labour force. The ‘human capital’ discourses motivating these policies rest on the assumption that older workers armed with motivation and vocational skills will be able to return to fulfilling work. This paper uses the post-redundancy recruitment experiences of former Ansett Airlines flight attendants to develop a critique of these expectations. It suggests that policies to increase older workers’ labour market participation will not succeed while persistent socially constructed age- and gender- typing shape labour demand. The conclusion argues for policies sensitive to the institutional structures that shape employer preferences, the competitive rationality of discriminatory practices, and the irresolvable tension between workers’ human rights and employers’ property rights

Challenges and Potential Solutions for Reducing Climate Control Loads in Conventional and Hybrid Vehicles

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory, a U.S. Department of Energy national laboratory, is collaborating with U.S. automotive manufacturers to develop innovative techniques to reduce national fuel consumption and vehicle tailpipe emissions by reducing vehicle climate control loads. A new U.S. emissions test, the Supplemental Federal Test Procedure (SFTP), will soon begin measuring tailpipe emissions with the air conditioning system operating. Modeled results show that emissions of oxides of nitrogen (NOx) and carbon monoxide (CO) more than double during the air conditioning part of the SFTP. Reducing the transmittance of the glazing can have a greater impact on the cabin soak temperature than ventilating the vehicle during a hot soak. Reducing the amount of outside air can decrease cooling and heating loads but requires that the recirculated air be cleaned. We discuss a photocatalytic oxidation air-cleaning process for removing volatile organic compounds and bioareosols. We conclude with an example of modeling the thermal comfort of the occupants. An auxiliary load increase of only 400 Watts (W) results in a 0.4 km/L (1 mpg) decrease for a conventional 11.9-L/100-km (28-mpg) vehicle. If every vehicle in the United States were to save only 0.4 km/L (1 mpg), $4 billion (U.S. dollars) would be saved annually in gasoline and oil costs. Further information can be found at http://www.ctts.nrel.gov/auxload.html

Very high energy observations of the BL Lac objects 3C 66A and OJ 287

Using the Solar Tower Atmospheric Cherenkov Effect Experiment (STACEE), we have observed the BL Lac objects 3C 66A and OJ 287. These are members of the class of low-frequency-peaked BL Lac objects (LBLs) and are two of the three LBLs predicted by Costamante and Ghisellini to be potential sources of very high energy (>100 GeV) gamma-ray emission. The third candidate, BL Lacertae, has recently been detected by the MAGIC collaboration. Our observations have not produced detections; we calculate a 99% CL upper limit of flux from 3C 66A of 0.15 Crab flux units and from OJ 287 our limit is 0.52 Crab. These limits assume a Crab-like energy spectrum with an effective energy threshold of 185 GeV.Comment: 24 pages, 15 figures, Accepted for publication in Astroparticle Physic

Current opportunities and challenges in developing hydro-climatic services in the Himalayas: report of pump priming project November 2019

The India-UK Water Centre (IUKWC) promotes cooperation and collaboration between the complementary priorities of NERC-MoES water security research. This report assesses the significant issues for hydro-climatic modelling and service development in the mountain regions of northern India. It is the main output from an IUKWC Pump Priming Project that ran from March to August 2018 and has been produced by an author team of climate scientist, hydrologists and glaciologist from India and the UK. It is found that although state-ofthe-art weather forecasting, climate, hydrological and glacier models are being used there are still substantial prediction uncertainties on all prediction timescales. There is a lack of detailed understanding of regional meteorological and hydrological processes, which results in potential misrepresentation of them in the models. Large-scale drivers of regional climate variability in the region have been identified but questions remain about their relevance on different timescales, their interaction, and their representation in global weather forecasting and climate models. Improving short-term predictions and climate change projections requires more meteorological, hydrological and glaciological observations in the Himalayas, improvements in data sharing, as well as additional efforts to integrate meteorological and hydrological modelling. There is also a need for improved communication of predictions to users, which should include their uncertainties. The report is intended for workshop participants, India-UK Water Centre Open Network members and stakeholders

Species trait selection along a prescribed fire chronosequence

1. Fire is a widespread management practice used in the maintenance of European heathland. Frequent prescribed burns in small patches have been shown to benefit carabid communities; however, how fire favours specific life-history traits is poorly understood. 2. In this study, we identify characteristic species of the successional stages within heathlands, and find the traits which are characteristic of species in burnt areas versus areas dominated by older heath stands. 3. We identify 10 species as indicator species for heathland in the pioneer stage (0–5 years old); Amara lunicollis, Bembidion lampros, Calathus fuscipes, Carabus problematicus, Cicindela campestris, Nebria salina, Notiophilus aquaticus, Poecilus cupreus, P. lepidus and P. versicolor. Dyschirius globosus is identified as an indicator for the building stage (6–14 years old), and Carabus violaceus as an indicator for the mature stage (15–25 years old). 4. Moisture preference and diet are identified as traits that determine species response to prescribed fire. Collembolan specialists and species with no moisture preference are shown to be most abundant in burnt patches, whereas generalist predators and species with a high moisture preference are less tolerant of fire. 5. Knowledge of species sorting along a prescribed fire gradient can provide valuable information for heathland conservation.publishedVersio

A heuristic quasi-polynomial algorithm for discrete logarithm in finite fields of small characteristic

International audienceIn the present work, we present a new discrete logarithm algorithm, in the same vein as in recent works by Joux, using an asymptotically more efficient descent approach. The main result gives a quasi-polynomial heuristic complexity for the discrete logarithm problem in finite field of small characteristic. By quasi-polynomial, we mean a complexity of type $n^{O(\log n)}$ where $n$ is the bit-size of the cardinality of the finite field. Such a complexity is smaller than any $L(\varepsilon)$ for $\epsilon>0$. It remains super-polynomial in the size of the input, but offers a major asymptotic improvement compared to $L(1/4+o(1))$

Horizon scanning the application of probiotics for wildlife

The provision of probiotics benefits the health of a wide range of organisms, from humans to animals and plants. Probiotics can enhance stress resilience of endangered organisms, many of which are critically threatened by anthropogenic impacts. The use of so-called ‘probiotics for wildlife’ is a nascent application, and the field needs to reflect on standards for its development, testing, validation, risk assessment, and deployment. Here, we identify the main challenges of this emerging intervention and provide a roadmap to validate the effectiveness of wildlife probiotics. We cover the essential use of inert negative controls in trials and the investigation of the probiotic mechanisms of action. We also suggest alternative microbial therapies that could be tested in parallel with the probiotic application. Our recommendations align approaches used for humans, aquaculture, and plants to the emerging concept and use of probiotics for wildlife