Delirium prediction in the intensive care unit: comparison of two delirium prediction models

Background: Accurate prediction of delirium in the intensive care unit (ICU) may facilitate efficient use of early preventive strategies and stratification of ICU patients by delirium risk in clinical research, but the optimal delirium prediction model to use is unclear. We compared the predictive performance and user convenience of the prediction model for delirium (PRE-DELIRIC) and early prediction model for delirium (E-PRE-DELIRIC) in ICU patients and determined the value of a two-stage calculation. Methods: This 7-country, 11-hospital, prospective cohort study evaluated consecutive adults admitted to the ICU who could be reliably assessed for delirium using the Confusion Assessment Method-ICU or the Intensive Care Delirium Screening Checklist. The predictive performance of the models was measured using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Calibration was assessed graphically. A physician questionnaire evaluated user convenience. For the two-stage calculation we used E-PRE-DELIRIC immediately after ICU admission and updated the prediction using PRE-DELIRIC after 24 h. Results: In total 2178 patients were included. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was significantly greater for PRE-DELIRIC (0.74 (95% confidence interval 0.71-0.76)) compared to E-PRE-DELIRIC (0.68 (95% confidence interval 0.66-0.71)) (z score of -2.73 (p < 0.01)). Both models were well-calibrated. The sensitivity improved when using the two-stage calculation in low-risk patients. Compared to PRE-DELIRIC, ICU physicians (n = 68) rated the E-PRE-DELIRIC model more feasible. Conclusions: While both ICU delirium prediction models have moderate-to-good performance, the PRE-DELIRIC model predicts delirium better. However, ICU physicians rated the user convenience of E-PRE-DELIRIC superior to PRE-DELIRIC. In low-risk patients the delirium prediction further improves after an update with the PRE-DELIRIC model after 24 h

The diffusion of a new service: Combining service consideration and brand choice

We propose an individual-level model of a two-stage service diffusion process. In the first stage, customers decide whether to "consider" joining the service. This (Consideration) stage is modeled by a hazard model. Customers who decide to consider the service move on to the Choice stage, wherein they choose among the service alternatives and an outside No Choice option. This stage is modeled by a conditional Multinomial Logit model. The service provider does not observe the transition in the first stage of potential customers who have yet to choose a brand. Such potential customers may have started to consider joining the service, yet chose the outside alternative in each period thereafter. One of the main contributions of the model is its ability to distinguish between these two non-adopter types. We estimated the model using data on the adoption process of newly introduced service plans offered by a commercial bank. We employed the hierarchical Bayes Monte Carlo Markov Chain procedure to estimate individual as well as population parameters. The empirical results indicate that the model outperforms competing models in breadth of analysis, model fit, and prediction accuracy

Colección José Arencibia [Material gráfico]

Copia digital. Madrid : Ministerio de Educación, Cultura y Deporte. Subdirección General de Coordinación Bibliotecaria, 201

Design of Clinical Trials Evaluating Sedation in Critically Ill Adults Undergoing Mechanical Ventilation

Objectives: Clinical trials evaluating the safety and effectiveness of sedative medication use in critically ill adults undergoing mechanical ventilation differ considerably in their methodological approach. This heterogeneity impedes the ability to compare results across studies. The Sedation Consortium on Endpoints and Procedures for Treatment, Education, and Research Recommendations convened a meeting of multidisciplinary experts to develop recommendations for key methodologic elements of sedation trials in the ICU to help guide academic and industry clinical investigators. Design: A 2-day in-person meeting was held in Washington, DC, on March 28–29, 2019, followed by a three-round, online modified Delphi consensus process. Participants: Thirty-six participants from academia, industry, and the Food and Drug Administration with expertise in relevant content areas, including two former ICU patients attended the in-person meeting, and the majority completed an online follow-up survey and participated in the modified Delphi process. Measurements and Main Results: The final recommendations were iteratively refined based on the survey results, participants’ reactions to those results, summaries written by panel moderators, and a review of the meeting transcripts made from audio recordings. Fifteen recommendations were developed for study design and conduct, subject enrollment, outcomes, and measurement instruments. Consensus recommendations included obtaining input from ICU survivors and/or their families, ensuring adequate training for personnel using validated instruments for assessments of sedation, pain, and delirium in the ICU environment, and the need for methodological standardization. Conclusions: These recommendations are intended to assist researchers in the design, conduct, selection of endpoints, and reporting of clinical trials involving sedative medications and/or sedation protocols for adult ICU patients who require mechanical ventilation. These recommendations should be viewed as a starting point to improve clinical trials and help reduce methodological heterogeneity in future clinical trials

Independent prognostic value of fascin immunoreactivity in stage I nonsmall cell lung cancer

Fascin-1, the most expressed form of fascin in vertebrate tissues, is an actin-bundling protein that induces cell membrane protrusions and increases motility of normal and transformed epithelial cells. Very few data are available on the role of this protein in nonsmall cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Two hundred and twenty patients with stage I NSCLC and long-term follow-up were evaluated immunocytochemically for fascin expression. Overall, variable fascin immunoreactivity was detected in 98% of 116 squamous cell carcinomas, in 78% of 96 adenocarcinomas, in 83% of six large cell carcinomas, and in the two adenosquamous carcinomas under study. Neoplastic emboli were commonly decorated by the antifascin antibody (P&lt;0.001), also when the surrounding invasive carcinoma was unreactive. Fascin immunoreactivity correlated with high tumour grade (P=0.017) and, in adenocarcinomas, with high Ki-67 labelling index (P=0.021). Adenocarcinomas with a prevalent bronchiolo-alveolar in situ component were less commonly immunoreactive for fascin than invasive tumours (P=0.005). Contralateral thoracic or distant metastases were associated significantly with diffuse (&gt;60% immunoreactive tumour cells) fascin expression in adenocarcinomas (P=0.043), and marginally with strong fascin immunostaining in squamous cell carcinomas (P=0.13). No associations were noted with any other clinicopathological variables tested. Patients with tumours showing diffuse (&gt;60% immunoreactive neoplastic cells) and/or strong immunoreactivity for fascin had a shorter survival (P=0.006 for adenocarcinomas and P=0.026 for squamous cell carcinomas), even after multivariate analysis (P=0.014 and 0.050, respectively). The current study documents for the first time that fascin is upregulated in invasive and more aggressive NSCLC, being an independent prognostic predictor of unfavourable clinical course of the disease. Targetting the fascin pathway could be a novel therapeutic strategy of NSCLC

High Tumour Cannabinoid CB1 Receptor Immunoreactivity Negatively Impacts Disease-Specific Survival in Stage II Microsatellite Stable Colorectal Cancer

BACKGROUND: There is good evidence in the literature that the cannabinoid system is disturbed in colorectal cancer. In the present study, we have investigated whether CB(1) receptor immunoreactive intensity (CB(1)IR intensity) is associated with disease severity and outcome. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: CB(1)IR was assessed in formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded specimens collected with a consecutive intent during primary tumour surgical resection from a series of cases diagnosed with colorectal cancer. Tumour centre (n = 483) and invasive front (n = 486) CB(1)IR was scored from 0 (absent) to 3 (intense staining) and the data was analysed as a median split i.e. CB(1)IR <2 and ≥2. In microsatellite stable, but not microsatellite instable tumours (as adjudged on the basis of immunohistochemical determination of four mismatch repair proteins), there was a significant positive association of the tumour grade with the CB(1)IR intensity. The difference between the microsatellite stable and instable tumours for this association of CB(1)IR was related to the CpG island methylation status of the cases. Cox proportional hazards regression analyses indicated a significant contribution of CB(1)IR to disease-specific survival in the microsatellite stable tumours when adjusting for tumour stage. For the cases with stage II microsatellite stable tumours, there was a significant effect of both tumour centre and front CB(1)IR upon disease specific survival. The 5 year probabilities of event-free survival were: 85±5 and 66±8%; tumour interior, 86±4% and 63±8% for the CB(1)IR<2 and CB(1)IR≥2 groups, respectively. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The level of CB(1) receptor expression in colorectal cancer is associated with the tumour grade in a manner dependent upon the degree of CpG hypermethylation. A high CB(1)IR is indicative of a poorer prognosis in stage II microsatellite stable tumour patients

Erratum to: 36th International Symposium on Intensive Care and Emergency Medicine

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1186/s13054-016-1208-6.]

Deciphering the pathogenesis of tendinopathy: a three-stages process

Our understanding of the pathogenesis of "tendinopathy" is based on fragmented evidences like pieces of a jigsaw puzzle. We propose a "failed healing theory" to knit these fragments together, which can explain previous observations. We also propose that albeit "overuse injury" and other insidious "micro trauma" may well be primary triggers of the process, "tendinopathy" is not an "overuse injury" per se. The typical clinical, histological and biochemical presentation relates to a localized chronic pain condition which may lead to tendon rupture, the latter attributed to mechanical weakness. Characterization of pathological "tendinotic" tissues revealed coexistence of collagenolytic injuries and an active healing process, focal hypervascularity and tissue metaplasia. These observations suggest a failed healing process as response to a triggering injury. The pathogenesis of tendinopathy can be described as a three stage process: injury, failed healing and clinical presentation. It is likely that some of these "initial injuries" heal well and we speculate that predisposing intrinsic or extrinsic factors may be involved. The injury stage involves a progressive collagenolytic tendon injury. The failed healing stage mainly refers to prolonged activation and failed resolution of the normal healing process. Finally, the matrix disturbances, increased focal vascularity and abnormal cytokine profiles contribute to the clinical presentations of chronic tendon pain or rupture. With this integrative pathogenesis theory, we can relate the known manifestations of tendinopathy and point to the "missing links". This model may guide future research on tendinopathy, until we could ultimately decipher the complete pathogenesis process and provide better treatments