Diagnosis of a high-impact secondary cyclone during HyMeX-SOP1 IOP18

Multiple high-impact weather events occurred during HyMeX-SOP1, which was intensively monitored by a largenumber of ordinary and extraordinary observations. The availability of special observations offers an un-precedented opportunity to explore these events in depth and assess the capabilities of current numericalweather prediction tools. In this case, a small-scale secondary cyclone formed within a prominent cyclone thatintensified in the north-western part of the western Mediterranean during IOP18 on October 31, 2012. The smallsecondary system formed near Catalonia, where heavy rain was observed, and then moved to the northern partof the island of Minorca, producing very strong winds. Finally, the secondary cyclone moved northeast whilemerging with the main cyclone and evolving as a cyclonic perturbation towards the Gulf of Genoa, bringingheavy precipitation to some Italian regions.This work aims at providing a detailed diagnosis of the genesis and evolution of the secondary cyclone, usinghigh-resolution numerical tools. Furthermore, with the main objective of identifying the main physical me-chanisms involved in the genesis and evolution of the small-scale secondary cyclone, sensitivity experimentswere performed taking into account three main factors: latent heat release, upper-level dynamical forcing andtopographical effects. Results show that in terms of individual cyclogenetic contributions, the upper level PVanomaly contribution dominated the initial phase and the diabatic heating from condensation contributed to thefurther deepening during the later stages of the secondary cyclone. The initial dynamical effect from the upper-levels forcing was amplified by the local topographic features, becoming a key synergistic factor for the for-mation of the damaging secondary cyclonic system.This research is framed within the CGL2017-82868-R [Severe Weather Phenomena in Coastal Regions: Predictability Challenges and Climatic Analysis (COASTEPS)] Spanish project which is partially supported with AEI/FEDER/MINECO funds

Tropicalization process of the 7 November 2014 mediterranean cyclone: numerical sensitivity study

Tropical-like Mediterranean cyclones (medicanes) have been documented and investigated in the literature, revealing that theirphysical mechanisms are stillpoorly understoodand likely not unique across cases. During late hours of 7 November 2014 a small-scale cyclone was detected over the Sicilian channel, affecting the Islands of Lampedusa, Pantelleria and Malta. Gust wind values exceeding 42.7m s-1and a pressure drop above 20 hPa in 6 hours were registered in Malta. Clear signatures of a well-defined cloud-free eye surroundedwithconvective activity of axisymmetric character were identifiable through IR satellite imagery during the late stages of the cyclone, resembling the properties of a hurricane.Weinvestigate the cyclogenesis and posterior development of this small-scale cyclone as well as its physical nature; to thisaim,a set of high-resolution sensitivity numerical experiments were performed. Hart’s phase diagrams adapted to the Mediterranean region clearly reveal the tropical characteristics of the simulated storm. A numerical sensitivity analysis by means of a factor separation technique is used to gain quantitative insight on the roleslatent heat release, surface heat fluxes and upper-level PV signatures (dynamically isolated through a PV-Inversion technique) have on the unfold of this singular event. Results show the importance of the upper-level dynamics to generate a baroclinic environment prone to surface cyclogenesis and in supporting the posterior tropicalization of the system. On the contrary, latent heat release and surface heat fluxes factors do not seem to contribute, as individual processes, tothe genesis of the cyclone as much as it could be suspected, considering itbehavesas a tropical-like cyclone. However, the asynchronous synergism between latent heat release and PV factors plays a crucial role for the intensification of the cyclone towards reaching the pure diabatic phase.This research is framed within the CGL2014-52199-R [Future Regional Impacts of Climate Change Associated to Extreme Weather Phenomena (EXTREMO)] Spanish project which is partially supported with AEI/FEDER funds. The first author was also supported by the FPI-CAIB (FPI/1877/2016) grant from the Conselleria d'Innovació, Recerca i Turisme del Govern de les Illes Balears and the Fons Social Europeu. The authors also acknowledge the computer resources at MareNostrum and the technical support provided by Barcelona Supercomputing Center (RES-AECT-2017-1-0014, RES-AECT-2017-2-0014), that allowed us to perform the high-resolution simulations presented in this study

A comparison of ensemble strategies for flash flood forecasting: The 12 October 2007 case study in Valencia, Spain

On 12 October 2007, several flash floods affected the Valencia region, eastern Spain, with devastating impacts in terms of human, social, and economic losses. An enhanced modeling and forecasting of these extremes, which can provide a tangible basis for flood early warning procedures and mitigation measures over the Mediterranean, is one of the fundamental motivations of the international Hydrological Cycle in the Mediterranean Experiment (HyMeX) program. The predictability bounds set by multiple sources of hydrological and meteorological uncertainty require their explicit representation in hydrometeorological forecasting systems. By including local convective precipitation systems, short-range ensemble prediction systems (SREPSs) provide a state-of-the-art framework to generate quantitative discharge forecasts and to cope with different sources of external-scale (i.e., external to the hydrological system) uncertainties. The performance of three distinct hydrological ensemble prediction systems (HEPSs) for the small-sized Serpis River basin is examined as a support tool for early warning and mitigation strategies. To this end, the Flash-Flood Event-Based Spatially Distributed Rainfall-RunoffTransformation-Water Balance (FEST-WB) model is driven by ground stations to examine the hydrological response of this semiarid and karstic catchment to heavy rains. The use of a multisite and novel calibration approach for the FEST-WB parameters is necessary to cope with the high nonlinearities emerging from the rainfall-runofftransformation and heterogeneities in the basin response. After calibration, FEST-WB reproduces with remarkable accuracy the hydrological response to intense precipitation and, in particular, the 12 October 2007 flash flood. Next, the flood predictability challenge is focused on quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs). In this regard, three SREPS generation strategies using the WRF Model are analyzed. On the one side, two SREPSs accounting for 1) uncertainties in the initial conditions (ICs) and lateral boundary conditions (LBCs) and 2) physical parameterizations are evaluated. An ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is also designed to test the ability of ensemble data assimilation methods to represent key mesoscale uncertainties from both IC and subscale processes. Results indicate that accounting for diversity in the physical parameterization schemes provides the best probabilistic high-resolution QPFs for this particular flash flood event. For low to moderate precipitation rates, EnKF and pure multiple physics approaches render undistinguishable accuracy for the test situation at larger scales. However, only the multiple physics QPFs properly drive the HEPS to render the most accurate flood warning signals. That is, extreme precipitation values produced by these convective-scale precipitation systems anchored by complex orography are better forecast when accounting just for uncertainties in the physical parameterizations. These findings contribute to the identification of ensemble strategies better targeted to the most relevant sources of uncertainty before flash flood situations over small catchments

Mapping of landslide susceptibility of coastal cliffs : the Mont-Roig del Camp case study

The weathered and fractured conglomerate cliffs of Mont Roig del Camp constitute a rock fall hazard for the surrounding pocket beaches and, therefore, for the population that frequent them, especially over the summer. Landslide susceptibility of the cliff has been assessed using the Rock Engineering System method (RES). The determinant and triggering factors considered in this study include: wave exposure, shoreline variations, cliff height, cliff slope, geotechnical quality of the rocky mass, superficial runoff and cliff orientations favoring landslides. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) have been employed to facilitate the information analysis and generate new susceptibility maps. The quality of the rock mass and cliff orientation are the most interactive factors for the stability of the cliff. However, shoreline variations and surface runoff are the most dominant factors in the system. Thus, the quality of the rock mass has been determined to be a basic variable in the cliff characterization because of its high dependence on the variations of the remaining factors. The landslide susceptibility map depicts a predominance of surfaces with moderate degrees of susceptibility concentrated mainly in the headlands, where the combined actions of subaerial and marine processes control the weathering and eroding processes. Therefore, the landslide susceptibility assessment based on this methodology has allowed the identification of hazardous areas that should be considered in future management plans

Assessing the coastal hazard of Medicane Ianos through ensemble modelling

On 18 September 2020, Medicane Ianos hit the western coast of Greece, resulting in flooding and severe damage at several coastal locations. In this work, we aim at evaluating its impact on sea conditions and the associated uncertainty through the use of an ensemble of numerical simulations. We applied a coupled wave–current model to an unstructured mesh, representing the whole Mediterranean Sea, with a grid resolution increasing in the Ionian Sea along the cyclone path and the landfall area. To investigate the uncertainty in modelling sea levels and waves for such an intense event, we performed an ensemble of ocean simulations using several coarse (10 km) and high-resolution (2 km) meteorological forcings from different mesoscale models. The performance of the ocean and wave models was evaluated against observations retrieved from fixed monitoring stations and satellites. All model runs emphasized the occurrence of severe sea conditions along the cyclone path and at the coast. Due to the rugged and complex coastline, extreme sea levels are localized at specific coastal sites. However, numerical results show a large spread of the simulated sea conditions for both the sea level and waves, highlighting the large uncertainty in simulating this kind of extreme event. The multi-model and multi-physics approach allows us to assess how the uncertainty propagates from meteorological to ocean variables and the subsequent coastal impact. The ensemble mean and standard deviation were combined to prove the hazard scenarios of the potential impact of such an extreme event to be used in a flood risk management plan.</p

Impact of mediastinal, liver and lung 123I-metaiodobenzylguanidine (123I-MIBG) washout on calculated 123I-MIBG myocardial washout

PURPOSE: In planar (123)I-metaiodobenzylguanidine ((123)I-MIBG) myocardial imaging mediastinum (M) activity is often used as a background correction in calculating "washout" (WO). However, the most likely sources for counts that might produce errors in estimating myocardial (Myo) activity are lung (Lu) and liver (Li), which typically have higher counts/pixel (cpp) than M. The present study investigated the relationship between changes in Lu, Li and Myo activity between early and late planar (123)I-MIBG images, with comparison to M as the best estimator of non-specific background activity. METHODS: Studies on 98 subjects with both early (e) and late (l) planar (123)I-MIBG images were analysed. There were 68 subjects with chronic heart failure (CHF), 14 with hypertension (HTN) but no known heart disease and 16 controls (C). For each image, regions of interest (ROIs) were drawn: an irregular whole Myo, Lu, upper M and Li. For each ROI, WO was calculated as [(cpp(e)-cpp(l:decay corrected))/cpp(e)]x100%. RESULTS: Multivariable forward stepwise regression analysis showed that overall a significant proportion of the variation in Myo WO could be explained by a model containing M WO and Lu WO (37%, p < 0.001). Only in controls was M WO the sole variable explaining a significant proportion of the variation in Myo WO (27%, p = 0.023). CONCLUSION: Although increased Myo WO in CHF subjects reflects disease severity, part of the count differences measured on planar (123)I-MIBG myocardial images likely reflects changes in the adjacent and surrounding Lu tissue. The results for the controls suggest that this is the only group where a mediastinum correction alone may be appropriate for cardiac WO calculation

Report on the Marine Imaging Workshop 2017

Marine optical imaging has become a major assessment tool in science, policy and public understanding of our seas and oceans. Methodology in this field is developing rapidly, including hardware, software and the ways of their application. The aim of the Marine Imaging Workshop (MIW) is to bring together academics, research scientists and engineers, as well as industrial partners to discuss these developments, along with applications, challenges and future directions. The first MIW was held in Southampton, UK in April 2014. The second MIW, held in Kiel, Germany, in 2017 involved more than 100 attendees, who shared the latest developments in marine imaging through a combination of traditional oral and poster presentations, interactive sessions and focused discussion sessions. This article summarises the topics addressed during the workshop, particularly the outcomes of these discussion sessions for future reference and to make the workshop results available to the open public

Non-invasive imaging in the diagnosis of acute viral myocarditis

Autopsy series of consecutive cases have demonstrated an incidence of myocarditis at approximately 1–10%; on the contrary, myocarditis is seriously underdiagnosed clinically. In a traditional view, the gold standard has been myocardial biopsy. However, it is generally specific but invasive and less sensitive, mostly because of the focal nature of the disease. Thus, non-invasive approaches to detect myocarditis are necessary. The traditional diagnostic tools are electrocardiography, laboratory values, especially troponin T or I, creatine kinase and echocardiography. For a long period, nuclear technique with indium-111 antimyosin antibody has been used as a diagnostic approach. In the last years, the use of this technique has declined because of radiation exposure and 48-h delay in obtaining imaging after injection to prevent blood pool effect. Thus, a non-invasive diagnostic approach without radiation and online image availability has been awaited. Cardiac magnetic resonance imaging has these promising characteristics. With this technique, it is possible to analyse inflammation, oedema and necrosis in addition to functional parameters such as left ventricular function, regional wall motion and dimensions. Thus, cardiovascular magnetic resonance imaging has emerged as the most important imaging tool in the diagnostic procedure and the review focus on this field. But there are also advances in echocardiography and computer tomography, which are described in detail