Statistical Analysis of Random Simulations: Bootstrap Tutorial

The bootstrap is a simple but versatile technique for the statistical analysis of random simulations.This tutorial explains the basics of that technique, and applies it to the well-known M/M/1 queuing simulation.In that numerical example, different responses are studied.For some responses, bootstrapping indeed gives better statistical results than parametric statistical techniques do.bootstrap;simulation

The Correct Kriging Variance Estimated by Bootstrapping

The classic Kriging variance formula is widely used in geostatistics and in the design and analysis of computer experiments.This paper proves that this formula is wrong.Furthermore, it shows that the formula underestimates the Kriging variance in expectation.The paper develops parametric bootstrapping to estimate the Kriging variance.The new method is tested on several artificial examples and a real-life case study.These results demonstrate that the classic formula underestimates the true Kriging variance.Kriging;Kriging variance;bootstrapping;design and analysis of computer experiments (DACE);Monte Carlo;global optimization;black-box optimization

Response Surface Methodology's Steepest Ascent and Step Size Revisited

Response Surface Methodology (RSM) searches for the input combination maximizing the output of a real system or its simulation.RSM is a heuristic that locally fits first-order polynomials, and estimates the corresponding steepest ascent (SA) paths.However, SA is scale-dependent; and its step size is selected intuitively.To tackle these two problems, this paper derives novel techniques combining mathematical statistics and mathematical programming.Technique 1 called 'adapted' SA (ASA) accounts for the covariances between the components of the estimated local gradient.ASA is scale-independent.The step-size problem is solved tentatively.Technique 2 does follow the SA direction, but with a step size inspired by ASA.Mathematical properties of the two techniques are derived and interpreted; numerical examples illustrate these properties.The search directions of the two techniques are explored in Monte Carlo experiments.These experiments show that - in general - ASA gives a better search direction than SA.response surface methodology

The Correct Kriging Variance Estimated by Bootstrapping

The classic Kriging variance formula is widely used in geostatistics and in the design and analysis of computer experiments.This paper proves that this formula is wrong.Furthermore, it shows that the formula underestimates the Kriging variance in expectation.The paper develops parametric bootstrapping to estimate the Kriging variance.The new method is tested on several artificial examples and a real-life case study.These results demonstrate that the classic formula underestimates the true Kriging variance.

Adjustable Robust Parameter Design with Unknown Distributions

Abstract This article presents a novel combination of robust optimization developed in mathematical programming, and robust parameter design developed in statistical quality control. Robust parameter design uses metamodels estimated from experiments with both controllable and environmental inputs (factors). These experiments may be performed with either real or simulated systems; we focus on simulation experiments. For the environmental inputs, classic robust parameter design assumes known means and covariances, and sometimes even a known distribution. We, however, develop a robust optimization approach that uses only experimental data, so it does not need these classic assumptions. Moreover, we develop `adjustable' robust parameter design which adjusts the values of some or all of the controllable factors after observing the values of some or all of the environmental inputs. We also propose a new decision rule that is suitable for adjustable integer decision variables. We illustrate our novel method through several numerical examples, which demonstrate its effectiveness.

Ethical Issues in Engineering Models: An Operations Researcher’s Reflections

This article starts with an overview of the author’s personal involvement—as an Operations Research consultant—in several engineering case-studies that may raise ethical questions; e.g., case-studies on nuclear waste, water management, sustainable ecology, military tactics, and animal welfare. All these case studies employ computer simulation models. In general, models are meant to solve practical problems, which may have ethical implications for the various stakeholders; namely, the modelers, the clients, and the public at large. The article further presents an overview of codes of ethics in a variety of disciples. It discusses the role of mathematical models, focusing on the validation of these models’ assumptions. Documentation of these model assumptions needs special attention. Some ethical norms and values may be quantified through the model’s multiple performance measures, which might be optimized. The uncertainty about the validity of the model leads to risk or uncertainty analysis and to a search for robust models. Ethical questions may be pressing in military models, including war games. However, computer games and the related experimental economics may also provide a special tool to study ethical issues. Finally, the article briefly discusses whistleblowing. Its many references to publications and websites enable further study of ethical issues in modeling

Spelling in adolescents with dyslexia: errors and modes of assessment

In this study we focused on the spelling of high-functioning students with dyslexia. We made a detailed classification of the errors in a word and sentence dictation task made by 100 students with dyslexia and 100 matched control students. All participants were in the first year of their bachelor’s studies and had Dutch as mother tongue. Three main error categories were distinguished: phonological, orthographic, and grammatical errors (on the basis of morphology and language-specific spelling rules). The results indicated that higher-education students with dyslexia made on average twice as many spelling errors as the controls, with effect sizes of d ≥ 2. When the errors were classified as phonological, orthographic, or grammatical, we found a slight dominance of phonological errors in students with dyslexia. Sentence dictation did not provide more information than word dictation in the correct classification of students with and without dyslexia