The vector innovation structural time series framework: a simple approach to multivariate forecasting

The vector innovation structural time series framework is proposed as a way of modelling a set of related time series. Like all multi-series approaches, the aim is to exploit potential inter-series dependencies to improve the fit and forecasts. A key feature of the framework is that the series are decomposed into common components such as trend and seasonal effects. Equations that describe the evolution of these components through time are used as the sole way of representing the inter-temporal dependencies. The approach is illustrated on a bivariate data set comprising Australian exchange rates of the UK pound and US dollar. Its forecasting capacity is compared to other common single- and multi-series approaches in an experiment using time series from a large macroeconomic database.Vector innovation structural time series, state space model, multivariate time series, exponential smoothing, forecast comparison, vector autoregression.

Pneumococcal conjugate vaccine given shortly after birth stimulates effective antibody concentrations and primes immunological memory for sustained infant protection.

BACKGROUND: In developing countries, newborn immunization with pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) could protect young infants who are at high risk of invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) but might lead to immune tolerance. METHODS: In a randomized trial, young infants received 7-valent PCV at 6, 10, and 14 weeks (Expanded Programme on Immunization [EPI] group) or 0, 10, and 14 weeks (newborn group). Safety was monitored actively at 2-7 days and then passively. Serum samples obtained at birth and 6, 10, 14, 18, 36, and 37 weeks were assayed by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay for anticapsular immunoglobulin G concentration and avidity. Infants were boosted with either 7-valent PCV or one-fifth dose of pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine at 36 weeks. Nasopharyngeal swab samples were obtained at 18 and 36 weeks. RESULTS: Three-hundred neonates and young infants were enrolled. Newborn vaccination was well tolerated. Adverse events occurred equally in each group; none was related to immunization. One infant, immunized at birth, died of unrelated neonatal sepsis. At 18 weeks, protective concentrations (≥0.35 μg/mL) were achieved against each serotype by ≥87% of infants with no significant differences between groups. Geometric mean concentrations were higher in the EPI group for serotypes 4, 9V, 18C, and 19F at 18 weeks and for serotype 4 at 36 weeks. Avidity was greater in the newborn group for serotypes 4, 6B, and 19F at 18 weeks and for serotype 19F at 36 weeks. Booster responses and vaccine-type/nonvaccine-type carriage prevalence did not differ between groups. CONCLUSIONS: PCV was safe, immunogenic, and primed for memory when given at birth. There was no evidence of immune tolerance. Vaccination beginning at birth offers an alternative to control IPD in vulnerable young infants

'I just want a job' : what do we really know about young people in jobs without training?

Over recent years, a central concern of policy has been to drive up post-16 participation rates in full-time education and address the needs of young people not in education, employment or training (NEET). As a result, young people who enter work which is classified as 'without training' at 16/17 have largely been ignored. However, the decision to Raise the Participation Age (RPA) for continuing in learning for all 17-year olds from 2013 and for all 18-year olds from 2015 in England, together with a growing unease about the impact of the current recession on youth unemployment rates, have revived interest in the 'jobs without training' (JWT) group. This paper draws on the findings from two studies: first, a qualitative study in two contrasting local labour markets, of young people in JWT, together with their employers and parents; and second, an evaluation of the Learning Agreement Pilots (LAP), which was the first policy initiative in England targeted at the JWT group. Both studies reveal a dearth of understanding about early labour market entrants and a lack of policy intervention and infrastructure to support the needs of the JWT group throughout the UK. From this, it is concluded that questionable assumptions have been made about the composition and the aspirations of young people in JWT, and their employers, on the basis of little or no evidence. As a consequence, a policy 'quick fix' to satisfy the RPA agenda will not easily be achieved. If the decision to raise the participation age is adopted also by the Welsh and Scottish parliaments, similar challenges may have to be faced

Identification of diverse database subsets using property-based and fragment-based molecular descriptions

This paper reports a comparison of calculated molecular properties and of 2D fragment bit-strings when used for the selection of structurally diverse subsets of a file of 44295 compounds. MaxMin dissimilarity-based selection and k-means cluster-based selection are used to select subsets containing between 1% and 20% of the file. Investigation of the numbers of bioactive molecules in the selected subsets suggest: that the MaxMin subsets are noticeably superior to the k-means subsets; that the property-based descriptors are marginally superior to the fragment-based descriptors; and that both approaches are noticeably superior to random selection

British research in accounting and finance (2001–2007): the 2008 research assessment exercise

No abstract available

Coastline responses to changing storm patterns

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2006. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Geophysical Research Letters 33 (2006): L18404, doi:10.1029/2006GL027445.Researchers and coastal managers are pondering how accelerated sea-level rise and possibly intensified storms will affect shorelines. These issues are most often investigated in a cross-shore profile framework, fostering the implicit assumption that coastline responses will be approximately uniform in the alongshore direction. However, experiments with a recently developed numerical model of coastline change on a large spatial domain suggest that the shoreline responses to climate change could be highly variable. As storm and wave climates change, large-scale coastline shapes are likely to shift—causing areas of greatly accelerated coastal erosion to alternate with areas of considerable shoreline accretion. On complex-shaped coastlines, including cuspate-cape and spit coastlines, the alongshore variation in shoreline retreat rates could be an order of magnitude higher than the baseline retreat rate expected from sea-level rise alone.The Andrew W. Mellon Foundation, the National Science Foundation Biocomplexity Program, and the Duke University Center on Global Change supported this work

Large-scale coastal and fluvial models constrain the late Holocene evolution of the Ebro Delta

© The Author(s), 2017. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Earth Surface Dynamics 5 (2017): 585-603, doi:10.5194/esurf-5-585-2017.The distinctive plan-view shape of the Ebro Delta coast reveals a rich morphologic history. The degree to which the form and depositional history of the Ebro and other deltas represent autogenic (internal) dynamics or allogenic (external) forcing remains a prominent challenge for paleo-environmental reconstructions. Here we use simple coastal and fluvial morphodynamic models to quantify paleo-environmental changes affecting the Ebro Delta over the late Holocene. Our findings show that these models are able to broadly reproduce the Ebro Delta morphology, with simple fluvial and wave climate histories. Based on numerical model experiments and the preserved and modern shape of the Ebro Delta plain, we estimate that a phase of rapid shoreline progradation began approximately 2100 years BP, requiring approximately a doubling in coarse-grained fluvial sediment supply to the delta. River profile simulations suggest that an instantaneous and sustained increase in coarse-grained sediment supply to the delta requires a combined increase in both flood discharge and sediment supply from the drainage basin. The persistence of rapid delta progradation throughout the last 2100 years suggests an anthropogenic control on sediment supply and flood intensity. Using proxy records of the North Atlantic Oscillation, we do not find evidence that changes in wave climate aided this delta expansion. Our findings highlight how scenario-based investigations of deltaic systems using simple models can assist first-order quantitative paleo-environmental reconstructions, elucidating the effects of past human influence and climate change, and allowing a better understanding of the future of deltaic landforms.This study was supported by NSF grant EAR-0952146