The IGCP 509 Database System: Design and application of a tool to capture and illustrate litho- and chrono-stratigraphic information for Palaeoproterozoic tectonic domains, large igneous provinces and ore deposits; with examples from southern Africa

The IGCP 509 project is collating global information for the Palaeoproterozoic era through the activities of numerous international collaborators. A database system (StratDB) and web interface has been designed to facilitate this process with links to an existing geochronology database (DateView). As a result, all information captured will remain available in a digital format for future researchers. The philosophy and design of the database and some of the outputs available from it are described. One of the principal features of the system is that it facilitates the construction of time-space correlation charts using an innovative application of GIS technology to nongeographic information, which permits users to query a variety of attribute information associated with lithostratigraphic units, metamorphic and deformation episodes associated with user-selected tectonic domains, large igneous provinces and major ore deposits. In the process, much of the manual labour normally associated with the construction of such charts in standard graphical or drafting packages is avoided.Associations between units, deformation, metamorphism, large igneous provinces and ore deposits may become more apparent once linked information is available for querying and investigation. Geochronological information from the DateView database may also be linked to entities stored in StratDB. GIS maps may be linked to the attribute informationin StratDB and DateView to construct a variety of time-slice maps or palaeogeographic reconstructions with the same symbology as is used in the time-space correlation charts. This database system will facilitate the dissemination of lithostratigraphic information for many countries to a broader community and will help non-specialists to easily view information for various Palaeoproterozoic tectonic domains. The system is illustrated using a preliminary compilation of information for the Palaeoproterozoic of southern Africa. The correlation charts and time-slice maps provide insights to the geological evolution of this region which emphasize some aspects and correlations which have not previously been extensively considered; for instance, possible correlation of units in the central and western zones of the Limpopo Belt (South Africa, Zimbabwe and Botswana) with the Magondi Belt of Zimbabwe and its extension into northern Botswana

Predicting protein decomposition: the case of aspartic-acid racemization kinetics

The increase in proportion of the non-biological (D-) isomer of aspartic acid (Asp) relative to the L- isomer has been widely used in archaeology and geochemistry as a tool for dating. The method has proved controversial, particularly when used for bones. The non-linear kinetics of Asp racemization have prompted a number of suggestions as to the underlying mechanism(s) and have led to the use of mathe- matical transformations which linearize the increase in D-Asp with respect to time. Using one example, a suggestion that the initial rapid phase of Asp racemization is due to a contribution from asparagine (Asn), we demonstrate how a simple model of the degradation and racemization of Asn can be used to predict the observed kinetics. A more complex model of peptide bound Asx (Asn+Asp) racemization, which occurs via the formation of a cyclic succinimide (Asu), can be used to correctly predict Asx racemi- zation kinetics in proteins at high temperatures (95-140 °C). The model fails to predict racemization kinetics in dentine collagen at 37 °C. The reason for this is that Asu formation is highly conformation dependent and is predicted to occur extremely slowly in triple helical collagen. As conformation strongly in£uences the rate of Asu formation and hence Asx racemization, the use of extrapolation from high temperatures to estimate racemization kinetics of Asx in proteins below their denaturation temperature is called into question. In the case of archaeological bone, we argue that the D:L ratio of Asx re£ects the proportion of non- helical to helical collagen, overlain by the e¡ects of leaching of more soluble (and conformationally unconstrained) peptides. Thus, racemization kinetics in bone are potentially unpredictable, and the proposed use of Asx racemization to estimate the extent of DNA depurination in archaeological bones is challenged

A national-scale assessment of climate change impacts on species: assessing the balance of risks and opportunities for multiple taxa

It is important for conservationists to be able to assess the risks that climate change poses to species, in order to inform decision making. Using standardised and repeatable methods, we present a national-scale assessment of the risks of range loss and opportunities for range expansion, that climate change could pose for over 3,000 plants and animals that occur in England. A basic risk assessment that compared projected future changes in potential range with recently observed changes classified 21% of species as being at high risk and 6% at medium risk of range loss under a B1 climate change scenario. A greater number of species were classified as having a medium (16%) or high (38%) opportunity to potentially expand their distribution. A more comprehensive assessment, incorporating additional ecological information, including potentially confounding and exacerbating factors, was applied to 402 species, of which 35 % were at risk of range loss and 42 % may expand their range extent. This study covers a temperate region with a significant proportion of species at their poleward range limit. The balance of risks and opportunities from climate change may be different elsewhere. The outcome of both risk assessments varied between taxonomic groups, with bryophytes and vascular plants containing the greatest proportion of species at risk from climate change. Upland habitats contained more species at risk than other habitats. Whilst the overall pattern was clear, confidence was generally low for individual assessments, with the exception of well-studied taxa such as birds. In response to climate change, nature conservation needs to plan for changing species distributions and increasing uncertainty of the future

A counterfactual approach to measure the impact of wet grassland conservation on UK breeding bird populations

Wet grassland wader populations in the United Kingdom have experienced severe declines over the last three decades. To help mitigate these declines, the Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB) has restored and managed lowland wet grassland nature reserves to benefit these and other species. However, the impact that these reserves have on bird population trends has not been experimentally evaluated, as appropriate control populations do not readily exist. In this study, we compare population trends from 1994 ‐ 2018 for five bird species of conservation concern that breed on these nature reserves with counterfactual trends using matched breeding bird survey observations. Our results showed positive effects of conservation interventions for all four wader species that these reserves aim to benefit: Lapwing (Vanellus vanellus), Redshank (Tringa totanus), Curlew (Numenius arquata) and Snipe (Gallinago gallinago). There was no positive effect of conservation interventions on reserves for the passerine, Yellow Wagtail (Motacilla flava). We compared reserve trends with three different counterfactuals, based on different scenarios of how reserve populations could have developed in the absence of conservation, and found that reserve trends performed better regardless of the counterfactual used. Our approach using monitoring data to produce valid counterfactual controls is a broadly applicable method allowing large‐scale evaluation of conservation impact

Disentangling the Relative Importance of Changes in Climate and Land-Use Intensity in Driving Recent Bird Population Trends

Threats to biodiversity resulting from habitat destruction and deterioration have been documented for many species, whilst climate change is regarded as increasingly impacting upon species' distribution and abundance. However, few studies have disentangled the relative importance of these two drivers in causing recent population declines. We quantify the relative importance of both processes by modelling annual variation in population growth of 18 farmland bird species in the UK as a function of measures of land-use intensity and weather. Modelled together, both had similar explanatory power in accounting for annual fluctuations in population growth. When these models were used to retrodict population trends for each species as a function of annual variation in land-use intensity and weather combined, and separately, retrodictions incorporating land-use intensity were more closely linked to observed population trends than retrodictions based only on weather, and closely matched the UK farmland bird index from 1970 onwards. Despite more stable land-use intensity in recent years, climate change (inferred from weather trends) has not overtaken land-use intensity as the dominant driver of bird populations

Agricultural Management and Climatic Change Are the Major Drivers of Biodiversity Change in the UK

Action to reduce anthropogenic impact on the environment and species within it will be most effective when targeted towards activities that have the greatest impact on biodiversity. To do this effectively we need to better understand the relative importance of different activities and how they drive changes in species’ populations. Here, we present a novel, flexible framework that reviews evidence for the relative importance of these drivers of change and uses it to explain recent alterations in species’ populations. We review drivers of change across four hundred species sampled from a broad range of taxonomic groups in the UK. We found that species’ population change (~1970–2012) has been most strongly impacted by intensive management of agricultural land and by climatic change. The impact of the former was primarily deleterious, whereas the impact of climatic change to date has been more mixed. Findings were similar across the three major taxonomic groups assessed (insects, vascular plants and vertebrates). In general, the way a habitat was managed had a greater impact than changes in its extent, which accords with the relatively small changes in the areas occupied by different habitats during our study period, compared to substantial changes in habitat management. Of the drivers classified as conservation measures, low-intensity management of agricultural land and habitat creation had the greatest impact. Our framework could be used to assess the relative importance of drivers at a range of scales to better inform our policy and management decisions. Furthermore, by scoring the quality of evidence, this framework helps us identify research gaps and needs