An Empirical Examination of the Relationship Between Real Options Values and the Rate of Investment

This paper examines the relationship between uncertainty and investment decisions by food and non-food firms. Using hysteresis and the real options paradigm, we review why uncertainty might cause firms to delay investment. In particular, our model looks for a negative relationship between capital invested and uncertainty. In the alternative, if the relationship is positive, this may be consistent with the exercise of growth options or competitive markets. Empirical results are mixed. In one of the four models we present there is clear evidence of hysteresis, that is a negative relationship between year over year investment and uncertainty. The remaining 3 models indicate the opposite, a positive relationship between investment and risk. Although the models differ, the first model is the stronger of the three. Nonetheless, the results are ambiguous. Although we use a large cross sectional, time series panel set of data, we find nothing remarkable about the food industry per se, except that across industries, their level of investment is about in the middle.Financial Economics,

High dimethylsulfide photolysis rates in nitrate-rich Antarctic waters

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2004. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Geophysical Research Letters 31 (2004): L11307, doi:10.1029/2004GL019863.The photochemistry of dimethylsulfide (DMS) was examined in the Southern Ocean to assess its impact on the biogeochemical dynamics of DMS in Antarctic waters. Very high DMS photolysis rate constants (0.16–0.23 h−1) were observed in surface waters exposed to full sunlight. DMS photolysis rates increased linearly with added nitrate concentrations, and 35% of the DMS loss in unamended samples was attributed to the photochemistry of ambient nitrate (29 μM). Experiments with optical filters showed that the UV-A band of sunlight (320–400 nm) accounted for ~65% of DMS photolysis suggesting that dissolved organic matter was the main photosensitizer for DMS photolysis. During the austral spring, DMS photolysis was the dominant loss mechanism under non-bloom and non-ice cover conditions owing to the high doses and deep penetration of UV radiation in the water column, low observed microbial consumption rates, and high in situ nitrate concentrations.This work was supported by NSF (OPP- 0230499, DJK; OPP-0230497, RPK)

Mobile Communication Signatures of Unemployment

The mapping of populations socio-economic well-being is highly constrained by the logistics of censuses and surveys. Consequently, spatially detailed changes across scales of days, weeks, or months, or even year to year, are difficult to assess; thus the speed of which policies can be designed and evaluated is limited. However, recent studies have shown the value of mobile phone data as an enabling methodology for demographic modeling and measurement. In this work, we investigate whether indicators extracted from mobile phone usage can reveal information about the socio-economical status of microregions such as districts (i.e., average spatial resolution < 2.7km). For this we examine anonymized mobile phone metadata combined with beneficiaries records from unemployment benefit program. We find that aggregated activity, social, and mobility patterns strongly correlate with unemployment. Furthermore, we construct a simple model to produce accurate reconstruction of district level unemployment from their mobile communication patterns alone. Our results suggest that reliable and cost-effective economical indicators could be built based on passively collected and anonymized mobile phone data. With similar data being collected every day by telecommunication services across the world, survey-based methods of measuring community socioeconomic status could potentially be augmented or replaced by such passive sensing methods in the future

Rib Fracture Fixation Restores Inspiratory Volume and Peak Flow in a Full Thorax Human Cadaveric Breathing Model

Background: Multiple rib fractures cause significant pain and potential for chest wall instability. Despite an emerging trend of surgical management of flail chest injuries, there are no studies examining the effect of rib fracture fixation on respiratory function. Objectives: Using a novel full thorax human cadaveric breathing model, we sought to explore the effect of flail chest injury and subsequent rib fracture fixation on respiratory outcomes. Patients and Methods: We used five fresh human cadavers to generate negative breathing models in the left thorax to mimic physiologic respiration. Inspiratory volumes and peak flows were measured using a flow meter for all three chest wall states: intact chest, left-sided flail chest (segmental fractures of ribs 3 - 7), and post-fracture open reduction and internal fixation (ORIF) of the chest wall with a pre-contoured rib specific plate fixation system. Results: A wide variation in the mean inspiratory volumes and peak flows were measured between specimens; however, the effect of a flail chest wall and the subsequent internal fixation of the unstable rib fractures was consistent across all samples. Compared to the intact chest wall, the inspiratory volume decreased by 40 ± 19% in the flail chest model (P = 0.04). Open reduction and internal fixation of the flail chest returned the inspiratory volume to 130 ± 71% of the intact chest volumes (P = 0.68). A similar 35 ± 19% decrease in peak flows was seen in the flail chest (P = 0.007) and this returned to 125 ± 71% of the intact chest following ORIF (P = 0.62). Conclusions: Negative pressure inspiration is significantly impaired by an unstable chest wall. Restoring mechanical stability of the fractured ribs improves respiratory outcomes similar to baseline values

Reconstructing Tuberculosis Services after Major Conflict: Experiences and Lessons Learned in East Timor

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis (TB) is a major public health problem in developing countries. Following the disruption to health services in East Timor due to violent political conflict in 1999, the National Tuberculosis Control Program was established, with a local non-government organisation as the lead agency. Within a few months, the TB program was operational in all districts. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Using the East Timor TB program as a case study, we have examined the enabling factors for the implementation of this type of communicable disease control program in a post-conflict setting. Stakeholder analysis was undertaken, and semi-structured interviews were conducted in 2003 with 24 key local and international stakeholders. Coordination, cooperation, and collaboration were identified as major contributors to the success of the TB program. The existing local structure and experience of the local non-government organisation, the commitment among local personnel and international advisors to establishing an effective program, and the willingness of international advisers and local counterparts to be flexible in their approach were also important factors. This success was achieved despite major impediments, including mass population displacement, lack of infrastructure, and the competing interests of organisations working in the health sector. CONCLUSIONS: Five years after the conflict, the TB program continues to operate in all districts with high notification rates, although the lack of a feeling of ownership by government health workers remains a challenge. Lessons learned in East Timor may be applicable to other post-conflict settings where TB is highly prevalent, and may have relevance to other disease control programs

Sea surface pCO2 and O2 dynamics in the partially ice-covered Arctic Ocean

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2017. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 122 (2017): 1425–1438, doi:10.1002/2016JC012162.Understanding the physical and biogeochemical processes that control CO2 and dissolved oxygen (DO) dynamics in the Arctic Ocean (AO) is crucial for predicting future air-sea CO2 fluxes and ocean acidification. Past studies have primarily been conducted on the AO continental shelves during low-ice periods and we lack information on gas dynamics in the deep AO basins where ice typically inhibits contact with the atmosphere. To study these gas dynamics, in situ time-series data have been collected in the Canada Basin during late summer to autumn of 2012. Partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2), DO concentration, temperature, salinity, and chlorophyll-a fluorescence (Chl-a) were measured in the upper ocean in a range of sea ice states by two drifting instrument systems. Although the two systems were on average only 222 km apart, they experienced considerably different ice cover and external forcings during the 40–50 day periods when data were collected. The pCO2 levels at both locations were well below atmospheric saturation whereas DO was almost always slightly supersaturated. Modeling results suggest that air-sea gas exchange, net community production (NCP), and horizontal gradients were the main sources of pCO2 and DO variability in the sparsely ice-covered AO. In areas more densely covered by sea ice, horizontal gradients were the dominant source of variability, with no significant NCP in the surface mixed layer. If the AO reaches equilibrium with atmospheric CO2 as ice cover continues to decrease, aragonite saturation will drop from a present mean of 1.00 ± 0.02 to 0.86 ± 0.01.U.S. National Science Foundation Arctic Observing Network Grant Number: ARC-1107346 and ARC-08564792017-08-2

Recent wind-driven variability in Atlantic water mass distribution and meridional overturning circulation

Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2017. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 47 (2017): 633-647, doi:10.1175/JPO-D-16-0089.1.Interannual variability in the volumetric water mass distribution within the North Atlantic Subtropical Gyre is described in relation to variability in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. The relative roles of diabatic and adiabatic processes in the volume and heat budgets of the subtropical gyre are investigated by projecting data into temperature coordinates as volumes of water using an Argo-based climatology and an ocean state estimate (ECCO version 4). This highlights that variations in the subtropical gyre volume budget are predominantly set by transport divergence in the gyre. A strong correlation between the volume anomaly due to transport divergence and the variability of both thermocline depth and Ekman pumping over the gyre suggests that wind-driven heave drives transport anomalies at the gyre boundaries. This wind-driven heaving contributes significantly to variations in the heat content of the gyre, as do anomalies in the air–sea fluxes. The analysis presented suggests that wind forcing plays an important role in driving interannual variability in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and that this variability can be unraveled from spatially distributed hydrographic observations using the framework presented here.DGE was supported by a Natural Environment Research Council studentship award at the University of Southampton. JMT’s contribution was supported by the U.S. National Science Foundation (Grant OCE-1332667). GF’s contribution was supported by the U.S. National Science Foundation through Grant OCE-0961713 and by the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration through Grant NA10OAR4310135. The contributions of JDZ and AJGN were supported by the NERC Grant ‘‘Climate scale analysis of air and water masses’’ (NE/ K012932/1). ACNG gratefully acknowledges support from the Leverhulme Trust, the Royal Society, and the Wolfson Foundation. LY was supported by NASA Ocean Vector Wind Science Team (OVWST) activities under Grant NNA10AO86G

Measles transmission following the tsunami in a population with a high one-dose vaccination coverage, Tamil Nadu, India 2004–2005

BACKGROUND: On 26 December 2004, a tsunami struck the coast of the state of Tamil Nadu, India, where one-dose measles coverage exceeded 95%. On 29 December, supplemental measles immunization activities targeted children 6 to 60 months of age in affected villages. On 30 December, Cuddalore, a tsunami-affected district in Tamil Nadu reported a cluster of measles cases. We investigated this cluster to estimate the magnitude of the problem and to propose recommendations for control. METHODS: We received notification of WHO-defined measles cases through stimulated passive surveillance. We collected information regarding date of onset, age, sex, vaccination status and residence. We collected samples for IgM antibodies and genotype studies. We modeled the accumulation of susceptible individuals over the time on the basis of vaccination coverage, vaccine efficacy and birth rate. RESULTS: We identified 101 measles cases and detected IgM antibodies against measles virus in eight of 11 sera. Cases were reported from tsunami-affected (n = 71) and unaffected villages (n = 30) with attack rates of 1.3 and 1.7 per 1000, respectively. 42% of cases in tsunami-affected villages had an onset date within 14 days of the tsunami. The median ages of case-patients in tsunami-affected and un-affected areas were 54 months and 60 months respectively (p = 0.471). 36% of cases from tsunami-affected areas were above 60 months of age. Phylogenetic analyses indicated that the sequences of virus belonged to genotype D8 that circulated in Tamil Nadu. CONCLUSION: Measles virus circulated in Cuddalore district following the tsunami, although there was no association between the two events. Transmission despite high one-dose vaccination coverage pointed to the limitations of this vaccination strategy. A second opportunity for measles immunization may help reducing measles mortality and morbidity in such areas. Children from 6 month to 14 years of age must be targeted for supplemental immunization during complex emergencies

Toward Improved Observing of the Rapidly Changing Arctic Ocean

Arctic Observing Summit (April 30 – May 2, 2013, Vancouver, Canada); AON statementIn order to observe and understand the Arctic Ocean and its response to climate change, the traditional approach of acquiring observations when and where the Arctic is accessible has to be enhanced with multi-faceted measurement systems operating autonomously to provide year-round information in real time. The major goal of such a network of autonomous sensors is to measure and monitor physical, chemical and biological parameters in the atmosphere, sea ice and ocean on at least daily intervals