Not all surveillance data are created equal—A multi‐method dynamic occupancy approach to determine rabies elimination from wildlife

1. A necessary component of elimination programmes for wildlife disease is effective surveillance. The ability to distinguish between disease freedom and non‐detection can mean the difference between a successful elimination campaign and new epizootics. Understanding the contribution of different surveillance methods helps to optimize and better allocate effort and develop more effective surveillance programmes. 2. We evaluated the probability of rabies virus elimination (disease freedom) in an enzootic area with active management using dynamic occupancy modelling of 10 years of raccoon rabies virus (RABV) surveillance data (2006–2015) collected from three states in the eastern United States. We estimated detection probability of RABV cases for each surveillance method (e.g. strange acting reports, roadkill, surveillance‐trapped animals, nuisance animals and public health samples) used by the USDA National Rabies Management Program. 3. Strange acting, found dead and public health animals were the most likely to detect RABV when it was present, and generally detectability was higher in fall– winter compared to spring–summer. Found dead animals in fall–winter had the highest detection at 0.33 (95% CI: 0.20, 0.48). Nuisance animals had the lowest detection probabilities (~0.02). 4. Areas with oral rabies vaccination (ORV) management had reduced occurrence probability compared to enzootic areas without ORV management. RABV occurrence was positively associated with deciduous and mixed forests and medium to high developed areas, which are also areas with higher raccoon (Procyon lotor) densities. By combining occupancy and detection estimates we can create a probability of elimination surface that can be updated seasonally to provide guidance on areas managed for wildlife disease. 5. Synthesis and applications. Wildlife disease surveillance is often comprised of a combination of targeted and convenience‐based methods. Using a multi‐method analytical approach allows us to compare the relative strengths of these methods, providing guidance on resource allocation for surveillance actions. Applying this multi‐method approach in conjunction with dynamic occupancy analyses better informs management decisions by understanding ecological drivers of disease occurrence

Temporal change in maternal dietary intake during pregnancy and lactation between and within 2 pregnancy cohorts assembled in the United Kingdom

Background: The association between maternal and infant dietary exposures and risk of allergic disease development is an area of considerable scientific uncertainty. Objective: This study aims to compare dietary habits during pregnancy and lactation in two pre-birth cohorts from the same location approximately 10 years apart, a timeframe characterised by changes in government dietary advice. Methods: The FAIR cohort is an unselected birth cohort born between 2001-2002. The 3rd generation cohort was born between 2010-2018. Both cohorts were established on the Isle of Wight (UK) to investigate prevalence of allergic diseases. Nutrition and allergy data was collected prospectively from recruitment and throughout the infant’s early life. Here we present dietary data collected in the third trimester of pregnancy and at three months of age. Differences between cohorts were tested using t-tests, Wilcoxon rank sum tests, chi-squared and Fisher’s exact tests. Results: Data was available for 1331 participants (969 FAIR and 362 3rd generation). The proportion of mothers that reported excluding peanuts during pregnancy was significantly lower for the 3rd generation compared to the FAIR cohort (16.0% vs. 55.6%, p < 0.01). Cohort membership, primiparity, and maternal education were significantly associated with excluding peanuts during pregnancy (p < 0.01). The proportion of mothers who reported excluding any foods during breastfeeding was significantly lower for the 3rd generation compared to the FAIR cohort (22.8% vs. 43.4%, p < 0.01). Conclusion: Maternal exclusion of peanut during pregnancy was lower for mothers giving birth between 2012-2018, compared to mothers giving birth between 2001-2002

Towards a rhizomatic understanding of the desistance journey

Although the ‘desistance as a (zigzag) journey’ metaphor has proved useful in terms of translating theory into practice, this article makes the case that it is insufficient for conveying the truly complex, social, unpredictable and ‘messy’ process of desistance from crime. The article uses what we know about the process of desistance to discuss the utility of Deleuze and Guattari’s (2013) rhizomatic theory in recasting the desistance journey metaphor. In doing so it is suggested that the desistance journey should be understood in terms of its endless and multiplicitous nature, a symbol of metamorphosis, and it argues that our focus should be on understanding the ‘desister as nomad’. This, the article concludes, holds important ramifications for the way in which we understand and implement desistance-focused practice in the criminal justice system

Background due to stored electrons following nuclear decays in the KATRIN spectrometers and its impact on the neutrino mass sensitivity

The KATRIN experiment is designed to measure the absolute neutrino mass scale with a sensitivity of 200 meV at 90% C.L. by high resolution tritium beta-spectroscopy. A low background level of 10 mHz at the beta-decay endpoint is required in order to achieve the design sensitivity. In this paper we discuss a novel background source arising from magnetically trapped keV electrons in electrostatic retarding spectrometers. The main sources of these electrons are alpha-decays of the radon isotopes (219,220)Rn as well as beta-decays of tritium in the volume of the spectrometers. We characterize the expected background signal by extensive MC simulations and investigate the impact on the KATRIN neutrino mass sensitivity. From these results we refine design parameters for the spectrometer vacuum system and propose active background reduction methods to meet the stringent design limits for the overall background rate

Studies of parton thermalization at RHIC

We consider the evolution of a parton system which is formed in the central region just after a relativistic heavy ion collision. The parton consist of mostly gluons, minijets, which are produced by elastic scattering between constituent partons of the colliding nuclei. We assume the system can be described by a semi-classical Boltzmann transport equation, which we solve by means of the test particle Monte-Carlo method including retardation. The partons proliferate via secondary radiative $gg \to ggg$ processes until the thermalization is reached for some assumptions. The extended system is thermalized at about $t=1.6$ fm/$c$ with $T = 570$ MeV and stays in equilibrium for about 2 fm/$c$ with breaking temperature $T = 360$ MeV in the rapidity central region.Comment: 14 page

Combined environmental and social exposures during pregnancy and associations with neonatal size and body composition: The Healthy Start study

Background: Prenatal environmental and social exposures have been associated with decreased birth weight. However, the effects of combined exposures (CEs) in these domains are not fully understood. Here we assessed multi-domain exposures for participants in the Healthy Start study (Denver, CO) and tested associations with neonatal size and body composition. Methods: In separate linear regression models, we tested associations between neonatal outcomes and three indices for exposures. Two indices were developed to describe exposures to environmental hazards (ENV) and social determinants of health (SOC). A third index CEs in both domains (CE = ENV/10 × SOC/10). Index scores were assigned to mothers based on address at enrollment. Birth weight and length were measured at delivery, and weight-for-length z-scores were calculated using a reference distribution. Percent fat mass was obtained by air displacement plethysmography. Results: Complete data were available for 897 (64%) participants. Median (range) ENV, SOC, and CE values were 31.9 (7.1-63.2), 36.0 (2.8-75.0), and 10.9 (0.4-45.7), respectively. After adjusting for potential confounders, 10-point increases in SOC and CE were associated with 27.7 g (95% confidence interval [CI] = 12.4, 42.9 g) and 56.3 g (19.4-93.2 g) decreases in birth weight, respectively. SOC and CE were also associated with decreases in percent fat mass. Conclusions: CEs during pregnancy were associated with lower birth weight and percent fat mass. Evidence of a potential synergistic effect between ENV and SOC suggests a need to more fully consider neighborhood exposures when assessing neonatal outcomes

Interaction of a TeV Scale Black Hole with the Quark-Gluon Plasma at LHC

If the fundamental Planck scale is near a TeV, then parton collisions with high enough center-of-mass energy should produce black holes. The production rate for such black holes has been extensively studied for the case of a proton-proton collision at \sqrt s = 14 TeV and for a lead-lead collision at \sqrt s = 5.5 TeV at LHC. As the parton energy density is much higher at lead-lead collisions than in pp collisions at LHC, one natural question is whether the produced black holes will be able to absorb the partons formed in the lead-lead collisions and eventually `eat' the quark-gluon plasma formed at LHC. In this paper, we make a quantitative analysis of this possibility and find that since the energy density of partons formed in lead-lead collisions at LHC is about 500 GeV/fm^3, the rate of absorption for one of these black holes is much smaller than the rate of evaporation. Hence, we argue that black holes formed in such collisions will decay very quickly, and will not absorb very many nearby partons. More precisely, we show that for the black hole mass to increase via parton absorption at the LHC the typical energy density of quarks and gluons should be of the order of 10^{10} GeV/fm^3. As LHC will not be able to produce such a high energy density partonic system, the black hole will not be able to absorb a sufficient number of nearby partons before it decays. The typical life time of the black hole formed at LHC is found to be a small fraction of a fm/c.Comment: 7 pages latex (double column), 3 eps figure

Commissioning of the vacuum system of the KATRIN Main Spectrometer

The KATRIN experiment will probe the neutrino mass by measuring the beta-electron energy spectrum near the endpoint of tritium beta-decay. An integral energy analysis will be performed by an electro-static spectrometer (Main Spectrometer), an ultra-high vacuum vessel with a length of 23.2 m, a volume of 1240 m^3, and a complex inner electrode system with about 120000 individual parts. The strong magnetic field that guides the beta-electrons is provided by super-conducting solenoids at both ends of the spectrometer. Its influence on turbo-molecular pumps and vacuum gauges had to be considered. A system consisting of 6 turbo-molecular pumps and 3 km of non-evaporable getter strips has been deployed and was tested during the commissioning of the spectrometer. In this paper the configuration, the commissioning with bake-out at 300{\deg}C, and the performance of this system are presented in detail. The vacuum system has to maintain a pressure in the 10^{-11} mbar range. It is demonstrated that the performance of the system is already close to these stringent functional requirements for the KATRIN experiment, which will start at the end of 2016.Comment: submitted for publication in JINST, 39 pages, 15 figure

Differential effects on inhibition of cholesterol absorption by plant stanol and plant sterol esters in apoE−/− mice

Aims 'Functional foods'; supplemented with plant sterol esters (PSE) and plant stanol esters (PSA) are therapeutic options for the management of hypercholesterolaemia. However, their effects on blood monocytes, endothelial function, atherogenesis, and sterol tissue concentrations are poorly understood. Methods and results Male apoE&#8722;/&#8722; mice (n= 30) were randomized to three different diets for 6 weeks (n= 10 per group): high-cholesterol (1.25%) western-type diet (WTD), WTD + 2% PSE, and WTD + 2% PSA. Both supplements reduced serum cholesterol. WTD + PSE resulted in increased plant sterol serum concentrations and increased inflammatory Ly-6C(high) monocyte numbers. WTD + PSA increased plant stanol serum concentrations and Ly-6C-monocyte numbers, but decreased vascular superoxide release, lipid hydroperoxides, and inflammatory cytokines in aortic tissue, in plasma, and in circulating monocytes. Despite reduced serum cholesterol concentrations, both supplements impaired endothelial vasodilation compared with WTD. WTD + PSA reduced the development of atherosclerotic lesions compared with WTD alone (12.7 ± 3.7 vs. 28.3 ± 3.5%), and WTD + PSE was less effective (17.5 ± 3.7%). WTD + PSE and WTD + PSA reduced the cholesterol content in the liver, but not in the brain. However, WTD + PSE and WTD + PSA increased plant sterol and plant stanol concentrations in the liver as well as in the brain. Conclusion PSE and PSA supplementation reduced serum cholesterol, but increased plant sterol and plant stanol concentrations. Elevated levels of PSE and PSA were associated with endothelial dysfunction and increased central nervous system depositions. Atherosclerotic lesion retardation was more pronounced in WTD + PSA, coinciding with higher regenerative monocyte numbers, decreased oxidative stress, and decreased inflammatory cytokines compared with WTD + PSE