Is Vostok lake in steady state?

Stable-isotope (D and 18O) data from the Vostok (East Antarctica) ice core are used to explore whether or not subglacial Vostok lake is in isotopic steady state. A simple box model shows that the lake is likely to be in steady state on time-scales of the order of 104–105 years (three to four residence times of the water in the lake), given our current knowledge of north–south and east–west gradients in the stable-isotopic composition of precipitation in the vicinity of Vostok station and Ridge B. However, the lake may not be in perfect steady state depending on the precise location of the melting area, which determines the source region of inflowing ice, and on the magnitude of the east–west gradient in isotopic compositions in the vicinity of Vostok station and Ridge B

An approach to trial design and analysis in the era of non-proportional hazards of the treatment effect

Background: Most randomized controlled trials with a time-to-event outcome are designed and analysed under the proportional hazards assumption, with a target hazard ratio for the treatment effect in mind. However, the hazards may be non-proportional. We address how to design a trial under such conditions, and how to analyse the results. Methods: We propose to extend the usual approach, a logrank test, to also include the Grambsch-Therneau test of proportional hazards. We test the resulting composite null hypothesis using a joint test for the hazard ratio and for time-dependent behaviour of the hazard ratio. We compute the power and sample size for the logrank test under proportional hazards, and from that we compute the power of the joint test. For the estimation of relevant quantities from the trial data, various models could be used; we advocate adopting a pre-specified flexible parametric survival model that supports time-dependent behaviour of the hazard ratio. Results: We present the mathematics for calculating the power and sample size for the joint test. We illustrate the methodology in real data from two randomized trials, one in ovarian cancer and the other in treating cellulitis. We show selected estimates and their uncertainty derived from the advocated flexible parametric model. We demonstrate in a small simulation study that when a treatment effect either increases or decreases over time, the joint test can outperform the logrank test in the presence of both patterns of non-proportional hazards. Conclusions: Those designing and analysing trials in the era of non-proportional hazards need to acknowledge that a more complex type of treatment effect is becoming more common. Our method for the design of the trial retains the tools familiar in the standard methodology based on the logrank test, and extends it to incorporate a joint test of the null hypothesis with power against non-proportional hazards. For the analysis of trial data, we propose the use of a pre-specified flexible parametric model that can represent a time-dependent hazard ratio if one is present

Investigating whether adverse prenatal and perinatal events are associated with non-clinical psychotic symptoms at age 12 years in the ALSPAC birth cohort

Background. Non-clinical psychosis-like symptoms (PLIKS) occur in about 15% of the population. It is not clear whether adverse events during early development alter the risk of developing PLIKS. We aimed to examine whether maternal infection, diabetes or pre-eclampsia during pregnancy, gestational age, perinatal cardiopulmonary resuscitation or 5-min Apgar score were associated with development of psychotic symptoms during early adolescence. Method. A longitudinal study of 6356 12-year-old adolescents who completed a semi-structured interview for psychotic symptoms in the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) birth cohort. Prenatal and perinatal data were obtained from obstetric records and maternal questionnaires completed during pregnancy. Results. The presence of definite psychotic symptoms was associated with maternal infection during pregnancy [adjusted odds ratio (OR) 1.44, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.11–1.86, p=0.006], maternal diabetes (adjusted OR 3.43, 95% CI 1.14–10.36, p=0.029), need for resuscitation (adjusted OR 1.50, 95% CI 0.97–2.31, p=0.065) and 5-min Apgar score (adjusted OR per unit decrease 1.30, 95% CI 1.12–1.50, p<0.001). None of these associations were mediated by childhood IQ score. Most associations persisted, but were less strong, when including suspected symptoms as part of the outcome. There was no association between PLIKS and gestational age or pre-eclampsia. Conclusions. Adverse events during early development may lead to an increased risk of developing PLIKS. Although the status of PLIKS in relation to clinical disorders such as schizophrenia is not clear, the similarity between these results and findings reported for schizophrenia indicates that future studies of PLIKS may help us to understand how psychotic experiences and clinical disorders develop throughout the life-course

Revisiting soliton contributions to perturbative amplitudes

Open Access funded by SCOAP3. CP is a Royal Society Research Fellow and partly supported by the U.S. Department of Energy under grants DOE-SC0010008, DOE-ARRA-SC0003883 and DOE-DE-SC0007897. ABR is supported by the Mitchell Family Foundation. We would like to thank the Mitchell Institute at Texas A&M and the NHETC at Rutgers University respectively for hospitality during the course of this work. We would also like to acknowledge the Aspen Center for Physics and NSF grant 1066293 for a stimulating research environment

Gestational age at delivery and special educational need: retrospective cohort study of 407,503 schoolchildren

&lt;STRONG&gt;Background&lt;/STRONG&gt; Previous studies have demonstrated an association between preterm delivery and increased risk of special educational need (SEN). The aim of our study was to examine the risk of SEN across the full range of gestation. &lt;STRONG&gt;Methods and Findings&lt;/STRONG&gt; We conducted a population-based, retrospective study by linking school census data on the 407,503 eligible school-aged children resident in 19 Scottish Local Authority areas (total population 3.8 million) to their routine birth data. SEN was recorded in 17,784 (4.9%) children; 1,565 (8.4%) of those born preterm and 16,219 (4.7%) of those born at term. The risk of SEN increased across the whole range of gestation from 40 to 24 wk: 37–39 wk adjusted odds ratio (OR) 1.16, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.12–1.20; 33–36 wk adjusted OR 1.53, 95% CI 1.43–1.63; 28–32 wk adjusted OR 2.66, 95% CI 2.38–2.97; 24–27 wk adjusted OR 6.92, 95% CI 5.58–8.58. There was no interaction between elective versus spontaneous delivery. Overall, gestation at delivery accounted for 10% of the adjusted population attributable fraction of SEN. Because of their high frequency, early term deliveries (37–39 wk) accounted for 5.5% of cases of SEN compared with preterm deliveries (&lt;37 wk), which accounted for only 3.6% of cases. &lt;STRONG&gt;Conclusions&lt;/STRONG&gt; Gestation at delivery had a strong, dose-dependent relationship with SEN that was apparent across the whole range of gestation. Because early term delivery is more common than preterm delivery, the former accounts for a higher percentage of SEN cases. Our findings have important implications for clinical practice in relation to the timing of elective delivery

Supply driven mortgage choice

Variable mortgage contracts dominate the UK mortgage market (Miles, 2004). The dominance of the variable rate mortgage contracts has important consequences for the transmission mechanism of monetary policy decisions and systemic risks (Khandani et al., 2012; Fuster and Vickery, 2013). This raises an obvious concern that a mortgage market such as that in the UK, where the major proportion of mortgage debt is either at a variable or fixed for less than two years rate (Badarinza, et al., 2013; CML, 2012), is vulnerable to alterations in the interest rate regime. Theoretically, mortgage choice is determined by demand and supply factors. So far, most of the existing literature has focused on the demand side perspective, and what is limited is consideration of supply side factors in empirical investigation on mortgage choice decisions. This paper uniquely explores whether supply side factors may partially explain observed/ex-post mortgage type decisions. Empirical results detect that lenders’ profit motives and mortgage funding/pricing issues may have assisted in preferences toward variable rate contracts. Securitisation is found to positively impact upon gross mortgage lending volumes while negatively impacting upon the share of variable lending flows. This shows that an increase in securitisation not only improves liquidity in the supply of mortgage funds, but also has the potential to shift mortgage choices toward fixed mortgage debt. The policy implications may involve a number of measures, including reconsideration of the capital requirements for the fixed, as opposed to the variable rate mortgage debt, growing securitisation and optimisation of the mortgage pricing policies