Profits, Welfare, and Class Position: 1965-1984

The study utilizes an extended version of a Charles V Hamilton paradigm in order to estimate yearly income transfers between classes in America\u27s system of welfare state capitalism. Analyzing the period from 1965 to 1984, what becomes most obvious is the substantial annual transfer from the middle/working class to the owning class. The transfer rose to more than $150 billion by 1984-a full 10% of middle/ working class income. Yet when looking at the implications, an interesting paradox emerges. Although the amount of transfer has increased some over the period, it has not grown nearly as fast as the after-tax income gap between the two classes. Those at the top have gotten sizably richer, while those beneath them have actually been witnessing a real-dollar income decline. Ultimately, this is attributed to both a postindustrial income bimodality within the non-elite population as well as a redistribution downward within that group. Frustrated by their own declining economic status, however, middle Americans at least temporarily turn a good bit of their wrath towards welfare recipients and not the owners of capital-much as Hamilton predicted

Profits, Welfare, and Class Position: 1965-1984

The study utilizes an extended version of a Charles V Hamilton paradigm in order to estimate yearly income transfers between classes in America\u27s system of welfare state capitalism. Analyzing the period from 1965 to 1984, what becomes most obvious is the substantial annual transfer from the middle/working class to the owning class. The transfer rose to more than $150 billion by 1984-a full 10% of middle/ working class income. Yet when looking at the implications, an interesting paradox emerges. Although the amount of transfer has increased some over the period, it has not grown nearly as fast as the after-tax income gap between the two classes. Those at the top have gotten sizably richer, while those beneath them have actually been witnessing a real-dollar income decline. Ultimately, this is attributed to both a postindustrial income bimodality within the non-elite population as well as a redistribution downward within that group. Frustrated by their own declining economic status, however, middle Americans at least temporarily turn a good bit of their wrath towards welfare recipients and not the owners of capital-much as Hamilton predicted

Technology, Corporate Mobility, and a Decline in Urban Services

Technological changes have produced a postindustrial economy which has both facilitated and encouraged the flight of capital and well-to-do people from the older industrial cities. Left in their wake are increasing levels of unemployment, poverty, and crime. Service needs have Increased accordingly, but at a time when these cities have not only smaller tax bases but also less electoral clout with which to acquire additional financial assistance at the state and federal levels. In a nearly futile attempt to reestablish a healthy degree of private investment in their cities, municipal governments let service levels decline and focus on spurring capital accumulation

Twenty-One at TREC-8: using Language Technology for Information Retrieval

This paper describes the official runs of the Twenty-One group for TREC-8. The Twenty-One group participated in the Ad-hoc, CLIR, Adaptive Filtering and SDR tracks. The main focus of our experiments is the development and evaluation of retrieval methods that are motivated by natural language processing techniques. The following new techniques are introduced in this paper. In the Ad-Hoc and CLIR tasks we experimented with automatic sense disambiguation followed by query expansion or translation. We used a combination of thesaurial and corpus information for the disambiguation process. We continued research on CLIR techniques which exploit the target corpus for an implicit disambiguation, by importing the translation probabilities into the probabilistic term-weighting framework. In filtering we extended the use of language models for document ranking with a relevance feedback algorithm for query term reweightin

Initializing decadal climate predictions with the GECCO oceanic synthesis

This study aims at improving the forecast skill of climate predictions through the use of ocean synthesis data for initial conditions of a coupled climate model. For this purpose, the coupled model of the Max Planck Institute (MPI) for Meteorology, which consists of the atmosphere model ECHAM5 and the MPI Ocean Model (MPI-OM), is initialized with oceanic synthesis fields available from the German contribution to Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean (GECCO) project. The use of an anomaly coupling scheme during the initialization avoids the main problems with drift in the climate predictions. Thus, the coupled model is continuously forced to follow the density anomalies of the GECCO synthesis over the period 1952-2001. Hindcast experiments are initialized from this experiment at constant intervals. The results show predictive skill through the initialization up to the decadal time scale, particularly over the North Atlantic. Viewed over the time scales analyzed here (annual, 5-yr, and 10-yr mean), greater skill for the North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) is obtained in the hindcast experiments than in either a damped persistence or trend forecast. The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation hindcast closely follows that of the GECCO oceanic synthesis. Hindcasts of global-mean temperature do not obtain greater skill than either damped persistence or a trend forecast, owing to the SST errors in the GECCO synthesis, outside the North Atlantic. An ensemble of forecast experiments is subsequently performed over the period 2002-11. North Atlantic SST from the forecast experiment agrees well with observations until the year 2007, and it is higher than if simulated without the oceanic initialization (averaged over the forecast period). The results confirm that both the initial and the boundary conditions must be accounted for in decadal climate predictions

Forecast skill of multi-year seasonal means in the decadal prediction system of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology

We examine the latest decadal predictions performed with the coupled model MPI-ESM as part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). We use ensembles of uninitialized and yearly initialized experiments to estimate the forecast skill for surface air temperature. Like for its precursor, the initialisation of MPI-ESM improves forecast skill for yearly and multi-yearly means, predominately over the North Atlantic for all lead times. Over the tropical Pacific, negative skill scores reflect a systematic error in the initialisation. We also examine the forecast skill of multi-year seasonal means. Skill scores of winter means are predominantly positive over northern Europe. In contrast, summer to autumn means reveal positive skill scores over central and south-eastern Europe. The skill scores of summer means are attributable to an observed pressure-gradient response to the North Atlantic surface temperatures