Weather Forecasting for Weather Derivatives

We take a nonstructural time-series approach to modeling and forecasting daily average temperature in ten U.S. cities, and we inquire systematically as to whether it may prove useful from the vantage point of participants in the weather derivatives market. The answer is, perhaps surprisingly, yes. Time series modeling reveals both strong conditional mean dynamics and conditional variance dynamics in daily average temperature, and it reveals sharp differences between the distribution of temperature and the distribution of temperature surprises. Most importantly, it adapts readily to produce the long-horizon forecasts of relevance in weather derivatives contexts. We produce and evaluate both point and distributional forecasts of average temperature, with some success. We conclude that additional inquiry into nonstructural weather forecasting methods, as relevant for weather derivatives, will likely prove useful. Key Words: Risk management; hedging; insurance; seasonality; average temperature; financial derivatives; density forecasting JEL Codes: G0, C1 Acknowledgments: For financial support we thank the National Science Foundation, the Wharton Financial Institutions Center, and the Wharton Risk Management and Decision Process Center. For helpful comments we thank Marshall Blume, Larry Brown, Jeff Considine, John Dutton, Ren Garcia, Stephen Jewson, Vince Kaminski, Paul Kleindorfer, Howard Kunreuther, Yu Li, Bob Livezey, Cliff Mass, Don McIsaac, Nour Meddahi, David Pozo, Matt Pritsker, S.T. Rao, Claudio Riberio, Til Schuermann and Yihong Xia. We are also grateful for comments by participants at the American Meteorological Society's Policy Forum on Weather, Climate and Energy. None of those thanked, of course, are responsible in any way for the outcome. Address corresponde..

A new technique for the separation of radiophosphorus from sulfur

A new approach to the separation of radiophosphorus from sulfur has been found which makes a unique use of ion exchange resins. Separations using resin columns are especially suited to problems involving radioactivity since they require a minimum of handling

Parallel molecular routes to cold adaptation in eight genera of New Zealand stick insects.

The acquisition of physiological strategies to tolerate novel thermal conditions allows organisms to exploit new environments. As a result, thermal tolerance is a key determinant of the global distribution of biodiversity, yet the constraints on its evolution are not well understood. Here we investigate parallel evolution of cold tolerance in New Zealand stick insects, an endemic radiation containing three montane-occurring species. Using a phylogeny constructed from 274 orthologous genes, we show that stick insects have independently colonized montane environments at least twice. We compare supercooling point and survival of internal ice formation among ten species from eight genera, and identify both freeze tolerance and freeze avoidance in separate montane lineages. Freeze tolerance is also verified in both lowland and montane populations of a single, geographically widespread, species. Transcriptome sequencing following cold shock identifies a set of structural cuticular genes that are both differentially regulated and under positive sequence selection in each species. However, while cuticular proteins in general are associated with cold shock across the phylogeny, the specific genes at play differ among species. Thus, while processes related to cuticular structure are consistently associated with adaptation for cold, this may not be the consequence of shared ancestral genetic constraints

The Association between Perceived Adequacy and Capacity for School Food Policy Implementation with Food Availability and Policy Adherence in Nova Scotia, Canada.

Supporting the implementation of school food and nutrition policies is an international priority to encourage healthier eating among children and youth. Schools are an important intervention setting to promote childhood nutrition, and many jurisdictions have adopted policies, guidelines, and programs to modify the school nutrition environment and promote healthier eating. The purpose of this study was to explore the association between perceived adequacy of facilities or equipment and capacity of staff to support policy implementation with food availability and policy adherence in the province of Nova Scotia (NS), Canada, one of the first regions in Canada to launch a comprehensive school food and nutrition policy (SFNP). A cross-sectional online survey was conducted in 2014-2015 to provide a current-state assessment of policy implementation and adherence. Adequacy and capacity for food policy implementation was used to assess policy adherence through the availability of prohibited 'minimum' nutrition foods. An exploratory factor analysis was conducted on a selection of available foods, and 'slow'- and 'quick'-service food composition measures were dichotomized for food availability. Schools with above-average perceived adequacy and capacity for policy implementation had greater odds (OR = 3.62, CI = 1.56, 8.40) of adhering to a lunch policy, while schools that adhered to a snack and lunch policy had lower odds (OR = 0.48, CI = 0.23, 1.01 and OR = 0.18, CI = 0.08, 0.41) of serving quick-service foods. This study identified the need for appropriate adequacy of facilities or equipment and capacity of staff for policy implementation to ensure policy adherence and improve the school food environment. These findings highlight the relationship between school food and nutrition policies, suggesting that better supporting their implementation could increase the likelihood of their success

Understanding System-Level Intervention Points to Support School Food and Nutrition Policy Implementation in Nova Scotia, Canada.

Supporting the implementation of school food and nutrition policies (SFNPs) is an international priority to encourage healthier eating among children and youth. Such policies can improve equitable access, resources, and supports for healthy eating. However, despite the potential impact of SFNPs, several implementation barriers have been reported. This study sought to examine the system-level intervention points within a school food system using a complex systems framework. We conducted semi-structured interviews with various stakeholders working to influence the school food system in Nova Scotia, Canada. We sought to understand their roles and experiences with the SFNP by applying the Intervention Level Framework (ILF), a novel, solutions-oriented approach to better understand how complex systems function. Participants (n = 33) included teachers, parents, cafeteria workers, public health staff and non-profit organizations. Interview transcripts were first coded, then themed and finally analyzed using the ILF, resulting in three intervention points within the school food system. These were defined as: (1) Actors and Elements, (2) System Regulation and Interconnections and (3) Purpose and Values. We concluded that understanding the interactions between these system levels and stakeholder roles can help to inform the development of relevant policy strategies that better support healthier school food environments in this jurisdiction

A Call for Change in the Public Education System in Nova Scotia

The United Nation’s International Decade for People of African Descent and Nova Scotia’s Ministry of African Nova Scotian Affairs recognize that students of African descent continue to experience inequities. As previous studies indicate, parents of Black learners identified that many educators lack knowledge and experience in understanding students of African descent.This study explored student achievement from the perspective of parents of children of African descent attending public schools in Nova Scotia. Participants included individual interviews and focus groups with parents from rural and urban areas. Based on Bronfenbrenner’s ecological theory framework, a thematic analysis of the data was conducted, a dominant storyline related to the families’ experiences in school and subsequent themes emerged: we are treated differently; we don’t feel connected; we know there are challenges: the resistance of parents; and we deal with injustices but persevere. These findings provide recommendations to improve the educational success for Black learners. Keywords: African Canadian, academic achievement and success, Black students, education, schooling challenges, students of African descentLa déclaration des Nations Unies de la Décennie internationale des personnes d’ascendance africaine et le Ministre des affaires Afro-néo-écossaises reconnaissent que les élèves d’ascendance africaine continuent à vivre des inégalités. Des études antérieures démontrent que les parents d’apprenants Noirs ont identifié que plusieurs éducateurs manquent de connaissances et d’expérience quant à la compréhension d’élèves d’ascendance africaine. Cette étude explore la réussite scolaire de la perspective des parents d’enfants d’ascendance africaine fréquentant des écoles publiques en Nouvelle-Écosse. Les participants incluent des entretiens individuels et des groupes de discussion avec des parents provenant de régions rurales et urbaines en Nouvelle-Écosse. Basée sur le cadre théorique écologique de Bronfenbrenner, une analyse thématique des données a été entreprise, un fil conducteur dominant lié aux expériences scolaires des familles, et des thèmes résolutoires ont émergé : nous sommes traités différemment ; et nous ne nous sentons pas connectés ; nous sommes conscients qu’il y a des défis ; la résistance des parents ; et nous font face à des injustices mais nous persistons. Ces constats fournissent des recommandations pour améliorer le succès académique des apprenants Noirs. Mots-clés : Afro-canadiens, performance et succès académique, élèves noirs, éducation, défis scolaires, élèves d’ascendance Africain

Newcomer families' experiences with programs and services to support early childhood development in Canada: A scoping review

It can be difficult for families with young children to navigate early childhood development supports. In particular, newcomer families often encounter additional barriers and require resources, programs, and services that are tailored to their unique assets, experiences, and needs. We conducted a scoping review of the literature published between 2000 and 2019 to explore what is known about newcomer families’ experiences with programs and services to support early childhood development in Canada. We searched 12 databases, screened 2390 articles, and included 34 articles for synthesis and analysis. Three common and connected themes were identified: 1) effective intercultural understanding, responsiveness, and communication are critical to ensuring full access to meaningful programs and services; 2) some newcomer families face systemic barriers exacerbated by their immigration status, and; 3) feelings and perceptions of families and service providers, as well as social supports, networks, and relationships influence how programs and services are accessed and experienced. Our review identifies the requirement for additional, participatory research that centres the voices and perspectives of newcomer children and their families and the need to expand that research to less populated and rural areas of the country to inform meaningful and culturally relevant policies, programs, and services for newcomer families to support their children’s well-being

Enhanced hyporheic exchange flow around woody debris does not increase nitrate reduction in a sandy streambed

Anthropogenic nitrogen pollution is a critical problem in freshwaters. Although riverbeds are known to attenuate nitrate, it is not known if large woody debris (LWD) can increase this ecosystem service through enhanced hyporheic exchange and streambed residence time. Over a year, we monitored the surface water and pore water chemistry at 200 points along a ~50m reach of a lowland sandy stream with three natural LWD structures. We directly injected 15N-nitrate at 108 locations within the top 1.5m of the streambed to quantify in situ denitrification, anammox and dissimilatory nitrate reduction to ammonia, which, on average, contributed 85%, 10% and 5% of total nitrate reduction, respectively. Total nitrate reducing activity ranged from 0-16µM h-1 and was highest in the top 30cm of the stream bed. Depth, ambient nitrate and water residence time explained 44% of the observed variation in nitrate reduction; fastest rates were associated with slow flow and shallow depths. In autumn, when the river was in spate, nitrate reduction (in situ and laboratory measures) was enhanced around the LWD compared with non-woody areas, but this was not seen in the spring and summer. Overall, there was no significant effect of LWD on nitrate reduction rates in surrounding streambed sediments, but higher pore water nitrate concentrations and shorter residence times, close to LWD, indicated enhanced delivery of surface water into the streambed under high flow. When hyporheic exchange is too strong, overall nitrate reduction is inhibited due to short flow-paths and associated high oxygen concentrations

How an early learning and child care program embraced outdoor play: A case study

Research indicates outdoor play influences children’s physical, cognitive and social-emotional well-being, but there are barriers to implementation in early learning settings. This study explores an early learning and child care (ELCC) program achieving success with outdoor play to identify strategies that may help overcome barriers and support outdoor play in similar contexts. Focus groups and interviews were conducted with ELCC program Early Childhood Educators (ECEs) and facilitators, school teachers and principal, and government staff. Data also included relevant documentation and photographs of the outdoor play spaces. Thematic analysis of all data was completed, resulting in a description of the ELCC program’s outdoor play space and practices and factors that may be influencing these identified practices. Six themes or influencing factors were identified: 1) outdoor play, including loose parts and risky play, is valued; 2) outdoor play is promoted and engaged in by others; 3) space and resources are available; 4) communication and engagement happens; 5) leaders are integral; and 6) partnerships and collaboration are essential. Using Bronfenbrenner’s ecological systems model, this research identifies outdoor play implementation strategies that may provide guidance to ELCC stakeholders such as ECEs and policymakers. To overcome outdoor play challenges, considerations should be made to purposefully target and engage multiple subsystems and stakeholders as described in this study for greatest impact