Predicting Outcomes in Investment Treaty Arbitration

Crafting appropriate dispute settlement processes is challenging for any conflict-management system, particularly for politically sensitive international economic law disputes. As the United States negotiates investment treaties with Asian and European countries, the terms of dispute settlement have become contentious. There is a vigorous debate about whether investment treaty arbitration (ITA) is an appropriate dispute settlement mechanism. While some sing the praises of ITA, others offer a spirited critique. Some critics claim that ITA is biased against states, while others suggest ITA is predictable but unfair due to factors like arbitrator identity or venue. Using data from 159 final cases derived from 272 publicly available ITA awards, this Article examines outcomes of ITA cases to explore those concerns. Key descriptive findings demonstrate that states reliably won a greater proportion of cases than investors; and for the subset of cases investors won, the mean award was US$45.6 million with mean investor success rate of 35%. State success rates were roughly similar to respondent-favorable or state-favorable results in whistleblowing, qui tam, and medical-malpractice litigation in U.S. courts. The Article then explores whether ITA outcomes varied depending upon investor identity, state identity, the presence of repeat-player counsel, arbitrator-related, or venue variables. Models using case-based variables always predicted outcomes whereas arbitrator-venue models did not. The results provide initial evidence that the most critical variables for predicting outcomes involved some form of investor identity and the experience of parties’ lawyers. For investor identity, the most robust predictor was whether investors were human beings, with cases brought by people exhibiting greater success than corporations; and when at least one named investor or corporate parent was ranked in the Financial Times 500, investors sometimes secured more favorable outcomes. Following Marc Galanter’s scholarship demonstrating that repeat-player lawyers are critical to litigation outcomes, attorney experience also affected ITA outcomes. Investors with experienced counsel were more likely to obtain a damage award against a state, whereas states retaining experienced counsel were only reliably associated with decreased levels of relative investor success. Although there was variation in outcomes, ultimately, the data did not support a conclusion that ITA was completely unpredictable; rather, the results called into question some critiques of ITA and did not prove that ITA is a wholly unacceptable form of dispute settlement. Instead, the results suggest the vital debate about ITA’s future would be well served by focusing on evidence-based insights and reliance on data rather than nonreplicable intuition

The rats in Hawaiian sugarcane

Heavy losses In Hawaiian sugarcane are caused by Polynesian rats (Rattus exulans), Norway rats (R. norvegicus), and black rats (R. rattus). Relative population levels, movement patterns, damage to sugarcane, and suggested timing of control during five stages of the 2-year crop cycle are described. The progress toward the registering of zinc phosphide for use in crops and the development of other rodenticides are mentioned

Shuttle orbiter S-band quad antenna switching evaluation

Automatic switching of the shuttle orbiter S-band quad antennas by the orbiter on-board computers was evaluated. The development and use of an extensive computer program to determine antenna switch position states as a function of time for various orbital activities is described. The selection of the optimum quad antenna element at any given time is based on the look angle to the appropriate Tracking Data Relay Satellite (TDRS). It is shown that a 2.4 second period is required for updating the S-band quad antenna switch state based on a maximum roll rate of 2 deg per second. The possibility of a variable update period is suggested since the 2 deg per second attitude rate is seldom encountered and would, for example, dictate approximately 248,000 on-board computer calculations during Reference Mission 2. The average number of antenna switch state changes was found to be in the range of 1,300 for Reference Mission 2

Hazards to golden-mantled ground squirrels and associated secondary hazard potential from strychnine baiting for forest pocket gophers

Radio telemetry and capture-recapture techniques were used to evaluate the hazards to golden-mantled ground squirrels (Spermophilus lateralis) from hand baiting with 0.5% strychnine-treated oats for western pocket gophers (Thomomys mazama) on conifer plantations in eastern Oregon. Toxicology data were collected on field-killed and caged ground squirrels and on caged mink (Mustela vison), great horned owls (Bubo virginianus), and red-tailed hawks (Buteo jamaicensis). Ground squirrel populations were reduced 50 to 75% following underground baiting for pocket gophers. Maximum amount of strychnine alkaloid found in cheek pouches and carcass of a field-killed golden-mantled ground squirrel was 2.88 mg. Mean amount of strychnine in carcasses was 0.35 mg; almost all occurred in the gut. The estimated LD50 for mink was 0.6 mg/kg. The lowest lethal dose for great horned owls and red-tailed hawks was 7.7 mg/kg and 10.2 mg/kg, respectively. The LD50 for owls and hawks was not determined. Long-term effects on golden-mantled ground squirrel populations and secondary hazard potential to owls and hawks were judged to be minimal. Wild mustelids as large as mink could be adversely affected by consuming the gut content of strychnine-killed golden-mantled ground squirrels

Radiation environment for rendezvous and docking with nuclear rockets

Radiation environment data for the NERVA engine are provided which may be utilized in estimating radiation exposures associated with various space maneuvers. Spatial distributions of neutron and gamma tissue kerma rates produced during full thrust operation of the engine are presented. Final rendezvous with an orbiting space station would be achieved subsequent to full thrust operation during a period of 10 or more hours duration in which impulse is delivered by the propellant used for removal of decay heat. Consequently, post operation radiation levels are of prime importance in estimating space station exposures. Maps of gamma kerma rates around the engine are provided for decay times of 4 and 24 hours after a representative firing. Typical decay curves illustrating the dependence of post operation kerma rates on decay time and operating history are included. Examples of the kerma distributions around the engine which result from integration over specific exposure periods are shown

Shuttle GPS R/PA evaluation analysis and performance tradeoff study

Primary responsibility was understanding and analyzing the various GPS receiver functions as they relate to the shuttle environment. These receiver functions included acquisition properties of the sequential detector, acquisition and tracking properties of the various receiver phase locked loops, and the techniques of sequential receiver operation. In addition to these areas, support was provided in the areas of oscillator stability requirements, antenna management, and navigation filter requirements, including preposition aiding

The state of sustainable agriculture and agroecology research and impacts: A survey of U.S. scientists

A growing body of research suggests that although sustainable agriculture, particularly agroecology, can address challenges such as those related to climate change, ecosystem services, food insecurity, and farmer livelihoods, the transition to such systems remains limited. To gain insight into the state of U.S. sustainable agriculture and agroecology, we developed a 28-question mixed-method survey that was administered to scientists in these fields. Respondents (N=168) represented diverse locations, institutions, and career stages. They offered varied definitions of sustainable agriculture, with 40% considering economic and social well-being to be core components. Respondents identified the amount and duration of public research funding as important obstacles to conducting research on sus- tainable agriculture (85% and 61%, respectively). Further, most expressed challenges in communi- cating findings beyond academia, including to the media and policymakers, potentially limiting the impacts of such research. However, respondents expressed satisfaction in several areas, including relationships with community members (81%) and local producers (81%), and interest from students (80%) and research communities (73%), suggesting positive momentum in this field. Earlier versus later career scientists rated research on “human dimensions” as more important, expressed greater concerns over career stability, and were less satisfied with opportunities for policy engagement. Results imply that greater public investments, particularly fostering human dimensions, could support a transition to agroecology and its associated benefits

Reliability Analysis of Complex NASA Systems with Model-Based Engineering

The emergence of model-based engineering, with Model- Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) leading the way, is transforming design and analysis methodologies. The recognized benefits to systems development include moving from document-centric information systems and document-centric project communication to a model-centric environment in which control of design changes in the life cycles is facilitated. In addition, a single source of truth about the system, that is up-to-date in all respects of the design, becomes the authoritative source of data and information about the system. This promotes consistency and efficiency in regard to integration of the system elements as the design emerges and thereby may further optimize the design. Therefore Reliability Engineers (REs) supporting NASA missions must be integrated into model-based engineering to ensure the outputs of their analyses are relevant and value-needed to the design, development, and operational processes for failure risks assessment and communication