Operationalising a metric of nitrogen impacts on biodiversity for the UK response to a data request from the Coordination Centre for Effects

As a signatory party to the Convention on Long Range Transboundary Air Pollution (CLRTAP), the UK has been requested to provide biodiversity metrics for use in assessing impacts of atmospheric nitrogen (N) pollution. Models of soil and vegetation responses to N pollution can predict changes in habitat suitability for many plant and lichen species. Metrics are required to relate changes in a set of species to biodiversity targets. In a previous study, the suitability of the habitat for a set of positive indicator-species was found to be the measure, out of potential outputs from models currently applicable to the UK, which was most clearly related to the assessment methods of habitat specialists at the Statutory Nature Conservation Bodies (SNCBs). This report describes the calculation of values for a metric, based on this principle, for a set of example habitats under different N pollution scenarios. The examples are mainly from Natura-2000 sites, and are defined at EUNIS Level 3 (e.g. F4.1 Wet heath). Values for the biodiversity metric were shown to be greater on all sites in the “Background” scenario than in the scenario with greater N and S pollution, illustrating a positive response of biodiversity to reduced pollution. Results of the study were submitted in response to the ‘Call for Data 2012-14’ by the CLTRAP Co-ordination Centre for Effects (CCE), and presented at the 24th CCE Workshop in April 2014. Metrics calculated on a similar basis were also presented by the Netherlands, Switzerland and Denmark. Such metrics indicate biodiversity status more accurately than other types of metric such as Simpson index or similarity to a reference community, so it was decided to adopt habitat-suitability for positive indicator-species as a common basis for a biodiversity metric in this context. Further work is needed to determine the typical range of metric values in different habitats, and threshold values for damage and recovery. Requirements are likely to be specified in detail in the next CCE Call for Data. The current study shows that a biodiversity metric based on habitat-suitability for positive indicator-species is a useful and responsive method for summarising outputs of models of air pollution impacts on ecosystems

Spatial controls on dissolved organic carbon in upland waters inferred from a simple statistical model

Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations in upland surface waters in many northern hemisphere industrialised regions are at their highest in living memory, provoking debate over their ‘‘naturalness’’. Because of the implications for drinking water treatment and supply there is increasing interest in the potential for mitigation through local land management, and for forecasting the likely impact of environmental change. However, the dominant controls on DOC production remain unresolved, hindering the establishment of appropriate reference levels for specific locations. Here we demonstrate that spatial variation in long-term average DOC levels draining upland UK catchments is highly predictable using a simplemultiple logistic regression model comprising variables representing wetland soil cover, rainfall, altitude, catchment sensitivity to acidification and current acid deposition. A negative relationship was observed between DOC concentration and altitude that, for catchments dominated by organo-mineral soils, is plausibly explained by the combined effects of changing net primary production and temperature-dependent decomposition. However, the magnitude of the altitude effect was considerably greater for catchments with a high proportion ofwetland cover, suggesting that additional controls influence these sites such as impeded respiratory loss of carbon in wet soils and/or an increased susceptibility to water level drawdown at lower altitudes. The model suggests (1) that continuing reductions in sulphur deposition on acid sensitive organo-mineral soils, will drive further significant increases in DOC and, (2) given the differences in the magnitude of the observed altitude-DOC relationships, that DOC production from catchments with peatdominated soilsmay bemore sensitive to climate change than those dominated by mineral soils. However, given that mechanisms remain unclear, the latter warrants further investigation

Late Cenozoic Climate History of the Ross Embayment from the AND-1B Drill Hole: Culmination of Three Decades of Antarctic Margin Drilling

Because of the paucity of exposed rock, the direct physical record of Antarctic Cenozoic glacial history has become known only recently and then largely from offshore shelf basins through seismic surveys and drilling. The number of holes on the continental shelf has been small and largely confined to three areas (McMurdo Sound, Prydz Bay, and Antarctic Peninsula), but even in McMurdo Sound, where Oligocene and early Miocene strata are well cored, the late Cenozoic is poorly known and dated. The latest Antarctic geological drilling program, ANDRILL, successfully cored a 1285-m-long record of climate history spanning the last 13 m.y. from subsea-floor sediment beneath the McMurdo Ice Shelf (MIS), using drilling systems specially developed for operating through ice shelves. The cores provide the most complete Antarctic record to date of ice-sheet and climate fluctuations for this period of Earth’s history. The >60 cycles of advance and retreat of the grounded ice margin preserved in the AND-1B record the evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet since a profound global cooling step in deep-sea oxygen isotope records ~14 m.y.a. A feature of particular interest is a ~90-m-thick interval of diatomite deposited during the warm Pliocene and representing an extended period (~200,000 years) of locally open water, high phytoplankton productivity, and retreat of the glaciers on land

BICCO-Net II. Final report to the Biological Impacts of Climate Change Observation Network (BICCO-Net) Steering Group

• BICCO-Net Phase II presents the most comprehensive single assessment of climate change impacts on UK biodiversity to date. • The results provide a valuable resource for the CCRA 2018, future LWEC report cards, the National Adaptation Programme and other policy-relevant initiatives linked to climate change impacts on biodiversity

Fore-arc deformation and underplating at the northern Hikurangi margin, New Zealand

Geophysical investigations of the northern Hikurangi subduction zone northeast of New Zealand, image fore‐arc and surrounding upper lithospheric structures. A seismic velocity (Vp) field is determined from seismic wide‐angle data, and our structural interpretation is supported by multichannel seismic reflection stratigraphy and gravity and magnetic modeling. We found that the subducting Hikurangi Plateau carries about 2 km of sediments above a 2 km mixed layer of volcaniclastics, limestone, and chert. The upper plateau crust is characterized by Vp = 4.9–6.7 km/s overlying the lower crust with Vp > 7.1 km/s. Gravity modeling yields a plateau thickness around 10 km. The reactivated Raukumara fore‐arc basin is >10 km deep, deposited on 5–10 km thick Australian crust. The fore‐arc mantle of Vp > 8 km/s appears unaffected by subduction hydration processes. The East Cape Ridge fore‐arc high is underlain by a 3.5 km deep strongly magnetic (3.3 A/m) high‐velocity zone, interpreted as part of the onshore Matakaoa volcanic allochthon and/or uplifted Raukumara Basin basement of probable oceanic crustal origin. Beneath the trench slope, we interpret low‐seismic‐velocity, high‐attenuation, low‐density fore‐arc material as accreted and recycled, suggesting that underplating and uplift destabilizes East Cape Ridge, triggering two‐sided mass wasting. Mass balance calculations indicate that the proposed accreted and recycled material represents 25–100% of all incoming sediment, and any remainder could be accounted for through erosion of older accreted material into surrounding basins. We suggest that continental mass flux into the mantle at subduction zones may be significantly overestimated because crustal underplating beneath fore‐arc highs have not properly been accounted for

Glastir Monitoring & Evaluation Programme. Second year annual report

What is the purpose of Glastir Monitoring and Evaluation Programme? Glastir is the main scheme by which the Welsh Government pays for environmental goods and services whilst the Glastir Monitoring and Evaluation Programme (GMEP) evaluates the scheme’s success. Commissioning of the monitoring programme in parallel with the launch of the Glastir scheme provides fast feedback and means payments can be modified to increase effectiveness. The Glastir scheme is jointly funded by the Welsh Government (through the Rural Development Plan) and the EU. GMEP will also support a wide range of other national and international reporting requirements. What is the GMEP approach? GMEP collects evidence for the 6 intended outcomes from the Glastir scheme which are focussed on climate change, water and soil quality, biodiversity, landscape, access and historic environment, woodland creation and management. Activities include; a national rolling monitoring programme of 1km squares; new analysis of long term data from other schemes combining with GMEP data where possible; modelling to estimate future outcomes so that adjustments can be made to maximise impact of payments; surveys to assess wider socio-economic benefits; and development of novel technologies to increase detection and efficiency of future assessments. How has GMEP progressed in this 2nd year? 90 GMEP squares were surveyed in Year 2 to add to the 60 completed in Year 1 resulting in 50% of the 300 GMEP survey squares now being completed. Squares will be revisited on a 4 year cycle providing evidence of change in response to Glastir and other pressures such as changing economics of the farm business, climate change and air pollution. This first survey cycle collects the baseline against which future changes will be assessed. This is important as GMEP work this year has demonstrated land coming into the scheme is different in some respects to land outside the scheme. Therefore, future analysis to detect impact of Glastir will be made both against the national backdrop from land outside the scheme and this baseline data from land in scheme. A wide range of analyses of longterm data has been completed for all Glastir Outcomes with the exception of landscape quality and historic features condition for which limited data is available. This has involved combining data with 2013/14 GMEP data when methods allow. Overall analysis of long term data indicates one of stability but with little evidence of improvement with the exception of headwater quality, greenhouse gas emissions and woodland area for which there has been improvement over the last 20 years. Some headline statistics include: 51% of historic features in excellent or sound condition; two thirds of public rights of way fully open and accessible; improvement in hedgerow management with 85% surveyed cut in the last 3 years but < 1% recently planted; 91% of streams had some level of modification but 60% retained good ecological quality; no change topsoil carbon content over last 25 years. What is innovative? GMEP has developed various new metrics to allow for more streamlined reporting in the future. For example a new Priority Bird species Index for Wales which combines data from 35 species indicates at least half have stable or increasing populations. The new GMEP Visual Quality Landscape Index has been tested involving over 2600 respondents. Results have demonstrated its value as an objective and repeatable method for quantifying change in visual landscape quality. A new unified peat map for Wales has been developed which has been passed to Glastir Contract Managers to improve targeting of payments when negotiating Glastir contracts. An estimate of peat soil contribution to current greenhouse gas emissions due to human modification has been calculated. Models have allowed quantification of land area helping to mitigate rainfall runoff. We are using new molecular tools to explore the effects of Glastir on soil organisms and satellite technologies to quantify e.g. small woody features and landcover change. Finally we are using a community approach to develop a consensus on how to define and report change in High Nature Value Farmland which will be reported in the Year 3 GMEP report

Imaging the shallow subsurface structure of the North Hikurangi subduction zone, New Zealand, using 2-D full-waveform inversion

The northern Hikurangi plate boundary fault hosts a range of seismic behaviors, of which the physical mechanisms controlling seismicity are poorly understood, but often related to high pore fluid pressures and conditionally stable frictional conditions. Using 2D marine seismic streamer data, we employ full-waveform inversion (FWI) to obtain a high-resolution 2D P-wave velocity model across the Hikurangi margin down to depths of ~2 km. The validity of the FWI velocity model is investigated through comparison with the pre-stack depth migrated seismic reflection image, sonic well data, and the match between observed and synthetic waveforms. Our model reveals the shallow structure of the overriding plate, including the fault plumbing system above the zone of SSEs to theoretical resolution of a half seismic wavelength. We find that the hanging walls of thrust faults often have substantially higher velocities than footwalls, consistent with higher compaction. In some cases, intra-wedge faults identified from reflection data are associated with low-velocity anomalies, which may suggest they are high-porosity zones acting as conduits for fluid flow. The continuity of velocity structure away from IODP drill site U1520 suggests that lithological variations in the incoming sedimentary stratigraphy observed at this site continue to the deformation front and are likely important in controlling seismic behavior. This investigation provides a high-resolution insight into the shallow parts of subduction zones, which shows promise for the extension of modeling to 3D using a recently-acquired, longer-offset, seismic dataset

Long-term increases in soil carbon due to ecosystem fertilization by atmospheric nitrogen deposition demonstrated by regional-scale modelling and observations

Fertilization of nitrogen (N)-limited ecosystems by anthropogenic atmospheric nitrogen deposition (Ndep) may promote CO2 removal from the atmosphere, thereby buffering human effects on global radiative forcing. We used the biogeochemical ecosystem model N14CP, which considers interactions among C (carbon), N and P (phosphorus), driven by a new reconstruction of historical Ndep, to assess the responses of soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks in British semi-natural landscapes to anthropogenic change. We calculate that increased net primary production due to Ndep has enhanced detrital inputs of C to soils, causing an average increase of 1.2 kgCm−2 (c. 10%) in soil SOC over the period 1750–2010. The simulation results are consistent with observed changes in topsoil SOC concentration in the late 20th Century, derived from sample-resample measurements at nearly 2000 field sites. More than half (57%) of the additional topsoil SOC is predicted to have a short turnover time (c. 20 years), and will therefore be sensitive to future changes in Ndep. The results are the first to validate model predictions of Ndep effects against observations of SOC at a regional field scale. They demonstrate the importance of long-term macronutrient interactions and the transitory nature of soil responses in the terrestrial C cycle