Improving pan-European hydrological simulation of extreme events through statistical bias correction of RCM-driven climate simulations

In this work we asses the benefits of removing bias in climate forcing data used for hydrological climate change impact assessment at pan-European scale, with emphasis on floods. Climate simulations from the HIRHAM5-ECHAM5 model driven by the SRES-A1B emission scenario are corrected for bias using a histogram equalization method. As target for the bias correction we employ gridded interpolated observations of precipitation, average, minimum, and maximum temperature from the E-OBS data set. Bias removal transfer functions are derived for the control period 1961–1990. These are subsequently used to correct the climate simulations for the control period, and, under the assumption of a stationary error model, for the future time window 2071–2100. Validation against E-OBS climatology in the control period shows that the correction method performs successfully in removing bias in average and extreme statistics relevant for flood simulation over the majority of the European domain in all seasons. This translates into considerably improved simulations with the hydrological model of observed average and extreme river discharges at a majority of 554 validation river stations across Europe. Probabilities of extreme events derived employing extreme value techniques are also more closely reproduced. Results indicate that projections of future flood hazard in Europe based on uncorrected climate simulations, both in terms of their magnitude and recurrence interval, are likely subject to large errors. Notwithstanding the inherent limitations of the large-scale approach used herein, this study strongly advocates the removal of bias in climate simulations prior to their use in hydrological impact assessment

Utilisation de l'expérience de drainage à pas de pression multiples pour la détermination des fonctions hydrauliques du sol par la méthode inverse : résultats expérimentaux

La méthode de drainage à pas de pression multiples, combinée avec la méthode inverse, permet la détermination des fonctions hydrauliques du sol (têta(h) et K(h)) simultanément. Cependant, le choix des fonctions décrivant têta(h) et K(h) du sol est d'une importance capitale dans cette méthode. Les résultats expérimentaux montrent que le modèle de CAMPBELL (1974) dans sa version améliorée par HUTSON et CASS (1987) permet une description raisonnable du processus du drainage en fonction du temps et correspondant à des pas de pression croissants. Les courbes de rétention d'eau déduites des paramètres optimisés par la méthode inverse ont les mêmes allures que celles déterminées par la méthode standard (bac de sable et cellules à basses et hautes pressions). Ces résultats sont plus représentatifs de la réalité lorsque les paramètres têta(s) et K(s) sont fixes et égaux aux valeurs expérimentales, avec une précision sensiblement la même dans les cas d'optimisation, où têta(s) est fixe et têta(s) et K(s) fixes et égaux aux valeurs expérimentales; le premier cas où seulement le paramètre têta(s) est fixe est suggéré (il y a moins de paramètres à mesurer). (Résumé d'auteur

Utilisation de l'expérience de drainage à pas de pression multiples pour la détermination des fonctions hydrauliques du sol par la méthode inverse : présentation et évaluation de la méthode

L'optimisation des paramètres des fonctions décrivant les propriétés hydrauliques du sol têta(h) et K(h), basée sur les résultats de l'expérience de drainage interne à pas de pression multiples est une méthode prometteuse. En effet, cette dernière fournit suffisamment d'informations sur les propriétés hydrauliques essentielles d'un sol. Le modèle utilisé pour décrire les relations entre la teneur en eau volumique têta et la pression de l'eau h, d'une part, et entre la conductivité hydraulique K et h, d'autre part, est celui de CAMPBELL (1974) dans sa version améliorée par HUTSON et CASS (1987). Les résultats montrent que ce modèle décrit raisonnablement le processus du drainage en fonction du temps correspondant à des pas de pressions croissantes. La solution de la méthode d'identification des paramètres est unique tant que les valeurs assignées aux paramètres au départ sont proches (plus ou moins 20 %) de celles du sol étudié. L'effet d'une erreur expérimentale allant jusqu'à 10 % n'est pas significatif pour les résultats des paramètres optimisés. (Résumé d'auteur

Comparison of various models of Monte Carlo geant 4 code in simulations of prompt gamma production

In this paper, results of simulations of the gamma-ray production in reactions with 70 MeV protons in a target of PMMA are presented. The data obtained by means of two versions of Geant 4 software, 9.3 and 10.01, have shown significant differences in the gamma-ray spectra. The comparison between the calculated spectra and the measured ones has been carried out. The tested versions do not give satisfactory agreement with the experimental result. The reason of the performed verification was the planned application of this simulation toolkit for the preparation of in vivo dosimetry based on the prompt gamma-ray measurements for the proton therapy

Comparison of three stream tube models predicting field-scale solute transport

International audienceIn this paper the relation between local- and field-scale solute transport parameters in an unsaturated soil profile is investigated. At two experimental sites, local-scale steady-state solute transport was measured in-situ using 120 horizontally installed TDR probes at 5 depths. Local-scale solute transport parameters determined from BTCs were used to predict field-scale solute transport using stochastic stream tube models (STM). Local-scale solute transport was described by two transport models: (1) the convection-dispersion transport model (CDE), and (2) the stochastic convective lognormat transfer model (CLT). The parameters of the CDE-model were found to be lognormally distributed, whereas the parameters of the CLT model were normally distributed. Local-scale solute transport heterogeneity within the measurement volume of a TDR-probe was an important factor causing field-scale solute dispersion. The study of the horizontal scale-dependency revealed that the variability in the solute transport parameters contributes more to the field-scale dispersion at deeper depths than at depths near the surface. Three STMs were used to upscale the local transport parameters: (i) the stochastic piston flow STM-I assuming local piston flow transport, (ii) the convective-dispersive STM-II assuming local CDE transport, and (iii) the stochastic convective lognormal STM-III assuming local CLT. The STM-I considerably underpredicted the field-scale solute dispersion indicating that local-scale dispersion processes, which are captured within the measurement volume of the TDR-probe, are important to predict field-scale solute transport. STM-II and STM-III both described the field-scale breakthrough curves (BTC) accurately if depth dependent parameters were used. In addition, a reasonable description of the horizontal variance of the local BTCs was found. STM-III was (more) superior to STM-II if only one set of parameters from one depth is used to predict the field-scale solute BTCs at several depths. This indicates that the local-scale solute transport process, as measured with TDR in this study, is in agreement with the CLT-hypothesis

Reflex Based Interventions For Children with Autism and Developmental Disabilities: An Evidence-Based Practice Project

This research will focus on reflex based interventions, specifically The Masgutova Neurosensorimotor Reflex Integration Method (MNRI Method). Background learning was completed by searching multiple search engines with combinations of keywords. The background information consisted of who the founder of MNRI is, what MNRI is, how it is done, and why the creator believes it works. MNRI was created by Dr. Svetlana Masgutova. Dr. Masgutova has her Doctorate in Developmental Educational Psychology (Dr. Svetlana Masgutova n.d.). Her doctoral work was geared toward the history of reflexes (Dr. Svetlana Masgutova n.d.; Rentschler, 2008). The background information she used came from the work of researchers such as Vygotsky and Piaget (Dr. Svetlana Masgutova n.d.; Rentschler, 2008). She also participated in work with posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) which eventually became the groundwork for MRNI (Dr. Svetlana Masgutova n.d.). She now works with individuals with multiple disorders and leads the MNRI International Team (Dr. Svetlana Masgutova n.d)

Recruitment, augmentation and apoptosis of rat osteoclasts in 1,25-(OH)2D3 response to short-term treatment with 1,25-dihydroxyvitamin D3in vivo

Background Although much is known about the regulation of osteoclast (OC) formation and activity, little is known about OC senescence. In particular, the fate of of OC seen after 1,25-(OH)2D3 administration in vivo is unclear. There is evidence that the normal fate of OC is to undergo apoptosis (programmed cell death). We have investigated the effect of short-term application of high dose 1,25-dihydroxyvitamin D3 (1,25-(OH)2D3) on OC apoptosis in an experimental rat model. Methods OC recruitment, augmentation and apoptosis was visualised and quantitated by staining histochemically for tartrate resistant acid phosphatase (TRAP), double staining for TRAP/ED1 or TRAP/DAPI, in situ DNA fragmentation end labelling and histomorphometric analysis. Results Short-term treatment with high-dose 1,25-(OH)2D3 increased the recruitment of OC precursors in the bone marrow resulting in a short-lived increase in OC numbers. This was rapidly followed by an increase in the number of apoptotic OC and their subsequent removal. The response of OC to 1,25-(OH)2D3 treatment was dose and site dependent; higher doses producing stronger, more rapid responses and the response in the tibiae being consistently stronger and more rapid than in the vertebrae. Conclusions This study demonstrates that (1) after recruitment, OC are removed from the resorption site by apoptosis (2) the combined use of TRAP and ED1 can be used to identify OC and their precursors in vivo (3) double staining for TRAP and DAPI or in situ DNA fragmentation end labelling can be used to identify apoptotic OC in vivo

Sustained Delivery of Insulin-Like Growth Factor-1/Hepatocyte Growth Factor Stimulates Endogenous Cardiac Repair in the Chronic Infarcted Pig Heart

Activation of endogenous cardiac stem/progenitor cells (eCSCs) can improve cardiac repair after acute myocardial infarction. We studied whether the in situ activation of eCSCs by insulin-like growth factor 1 (IGF-1) and hepatocyte growth factor (HGF) could be increased using a newly developed hydrogel in chronic myocardial infarction (MI). One-month post-MI pigs underwent NOGA-guided intramyocardial injections of IGF-1/HGF (GF: both 0.5 μg/mL, n = 5) or IGF-1/HGF incorporated in UPy hydrogel (UPy-GF; both 0.5 μg/mL, n = 5). UPy hydrogel without added growth factors was administered to four control (CTRL) pigs. Left ventricular ejection fraction was increased in the UPy-GF and GF animals compared to CTRLs. UPy-GF delivery reduced pathological hypertrophy, led to the formation of new, small cardiomyocytes, and increased capillarization. The eCSC population was increased almost fourfold in the border zone of the UPy-GF-treated hearts compared to CTRL hearts. These results show that IGF-1/HGF therapy led to an improved cardiac function in chronic MI and that effect size could be further increased by using UPy hydrogel. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s12265-013-9518-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users

More meteorological events that drive compound coastal flooding are projected under climate change

Compound flooding arises from storms causing concurrent extreme precipitation and meteorological tides, that is the superposition of storm surge and waves. This flooding can severely affect densely populated low-lying coastal areas. Here, combining output from climate and ocean models, we analyse the concurrence probability of the meteorological conditions driving compound flooding. We show that, under a high emissions scenario, the concurrence probability would increase globally by more than 25% by 2100 compared to present. In latitudes above 40o north, compound flooding could become more than 2.5 times as frequent, in contrast to parts of the subtropics where it would weaken. Changes in extreme precipitation and meteorological tides account for most (77% and 20%, respectively) of the projected change in concurrence probability. The evolution of the dependence between precipitation and meteorological tide dominates the uncertainty in the projections. Our results indicate that not accounting for these effects in adaptation planning could leave coastal communities insufficiently protected against flooding