Merrie England a comic opera.

Thesis (M.M.E.)--Boston Universit

Participation in Social Institutions by Relief Families in a Selected Rooming House Area in Salt Lake City July 1933 to July 1934

A series of happenlngs in Salt Lake City during the early years of the reoent depression strongly Indlcate that certain relief clients were, at that time, more or leas chronic trouble makers. They frequently threatened and sometimes inflicted bodily harm on social case workers; they inflicted riots, held protest meetings and wrote protest letters to state and national officials. A check-up on the addresses of these clients showed that the majority lived in the same or near-by areas

A class of pairwise models for epidemic dynamics on weighted networks

In this paper, we study the $SIS$ (susceptible-infected-susceptible) and $SIR$ (susceptible-infected-removed) epidemic models on undirected, weighted networks by deriving pairwise-type approximate models coupled with individual-based network simulation. Two different types of theoretical/synthetic weighted network models are considered. Both models start from non-weighted networks with fixed topology followed by the allocation of link weights in either (i) random or (ii) fixed/deterministic way. The pairwise models are formulated for a general discrete distribution of weights, and these models are then used in conjunction with network simulation to evaluate the impact of different weight distributions on epidemic threshold and dynamics in general. For the $SIR$ dynamics, the basic reproductive ratio $R_0$ is computed, and we show that (i) for both network models $R_{0}$ is maximised if all weights are equal, and (ii) when the two models are equally matched, the networks with a random weight distribution give rise to a higher $R_0$ value. The models are also used to explore the agreement between the pairwise and simulation models for different parameter combinations

A motif-based approach to network epidemics

Networks have become an indispensable tool in modelling infectious diseases, with the structure of epidemiologically relevant contacts known to affect both the dynamics of the infection process and the efficacy of intervention strategies. One of the key reasons for this is the presence of clustering in contact networks, which is typically analysed in terms of prevalence of triangles in the network. We present a more general approach, based on the prevalence of different four-motifs, in the context of ODE approximations to network dynamics. This is shown to outperform existing models for a range of small world networks

Feasibility study of MgSO4 + zeolite based composite thermochemical energy stores charged by vacuum flat plate solar thermal collectors for seasonal thermal energy storage

A primary drawback of solar thermal technologies, especially in a domestic setting, is that collection of thermal energy occurs when solar irradiance is abundant and there is generally little requirement for heating. Thermochemical Energy Storage (TCES) offers a means of storing thermal energy interseasonally with little heat loss. A combination of a Solar Thermal Collector (STC) and TCES system will allow a variety of different heating applications, such as domestic space and hot water heating as well as low temperature industrial process heat applications to be met in a low carbon way. This paper describes and assesses the feasibility of two novel technologies currently under development at Loughborough University; i) an evacuated flat plate STC and ii) composite TCES materials, coupled together into a system designed to store and supply thermal energy on demand throughout the year. Experimental results of composite TCES materials along with predicted performance of STC's are used within a developed model to assess key metrics of conceptual TCES + STC systems feasibility, including; charging time, payback time, cost/kWh, energy savings and CO2 savings. This paper demonstrates the economic, energy and carbon savings potential of conceptual TCES + STC systems suitable for domestic use

Comparison of multi-year and reference year building simulations

Copyright © 2010 by SAGE PublicationsBuildings are generally modelled for compliance using reference weather years. In the UK these are the test reference year (TRY) used for energy analysis and the design summer year (DSY) used for assessing overheating in the summer. These reference years currently exist for 14 locations around the UK and consist of either a composite year compiled of the most average months from 23 years worth of observed weather data (TRY) or a single contiguous year representing a hot but non-extreme summer (DSY). In this paper, we compare simulations run using the reference years and the results obtained from simulations using the base data sets from which these reference years were chosen. We compare the posterior statistic to the reference year for several buildings examining energy use, internal temperatures, overheating and thermal comfort. We find that while the reference years allow rapid thermal modelling of building designs they are not always representative of the average energy use (TRY) exposed by modelling with many weather years. Also they do not always give an accurate indication of the internal conditions within a building and as such can give a misleading representation of the risk of overheating (DSY). Practical applications: An understanding of the limitations of the current reference years is required to allow creation of updated reference years for building simulation of future buildings. By comparing the reference years to the base data sets of historical data from which they were compiled an understanding of the benefit of multiple simulations in determining risk can be obtained

Assessing the risk of climate change for buildings: A comparison between multi-year and probabilistic reference year simulations

Copyright © 2011 Elsevier. NOTICE: this is the author’s version of a work that was accepted for publication in Building and Environment . Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. A definitive version was subsequently published in Building and Environment Vol. 46 (2011), DOI: 10.1016/j.buildenv.2010.12.018Given a changing climate, there is a need to provide data for future years so that practicing engineers can investigate the impact of climate change on particular designs and examine any risk the client might be exposed to. In addition, such files are of use to building scientists in developing generic solutions to problems such as elevated internal temperatures and poor thermal comfort. With the release of the UK Climate Projections (UKCP09) [1], and the publication of a methodology for the creation of probabilistic future reference years using the UKCP09 weather generator [2], it is possible to model future building performance. However, the collapse of the distribution of possibilities inherent in the UKCP09 method into a single reference year or a small number of reference years, potentially means the loss of most of the information about the potential range of the response of the building and of the risk occupants might be subject to. In this paper we model for the first time the internal conditions and energy use of a building with all 3000 example years produced by the UKCP09 weather generator in an attempt to study the full range of response and risk. The resultant histograms and cumulative distribution functions are then used to examine whether single reference years can be used to answer questions about response and risk under a changing climate, or whether a more probabilistic approach is unavoidable

Modelling the impact of local reactive school closures on critical care provision during an influenza pandemic

Despite the fact that the 2009 H1N1 pandemic influenza strain was less severe than had been feared, both seasonal epidemics of influenza-like-illness and future influenza pandemics have the potential to place a serious burden on health services. The closure of schools has been postulated as a means of reducing transmission between children and hence reducing the number of cases at the peak of an epidemic; this is supported by the marked reduction in cases during school holidays observed across the world during the 2009 pandemic. However, a national policy of long-duration school closures could have severe economic costs. Reactive short-duration closure of schools in regions where health services are close to capacity offers a potential compromise, but it is unclear over what spatial scale and time frame closures would need to be made to be effective. Here, using detailed geographical information for England, we assess how localized school closures could alleviate the burden on hospital intensive care units (ICUs) that are reaching capacity. We show that, for a range of epidemiologically plausible assumptions, considerable local coordination of school closures is needed to achieve a substantial reduction in the number of hospitals where capacity is exceeded at the peak of the epidemic. The heterogeneity in demand per hospital ICU bed means that even widespread school closures are unlikely to have an impact on whether demand will exceed capacity for many hospitals. These results support the UK decision not to use localized school closures as a control mechanism, but have far wider international public-health implications. The spatial heterogeneities in both population density and hospital capacity that give rise to our results exist in many developed countries, while our model assumptions are sufficiently general to cover a wide range of pathogens. This leads us to believe that when a pandemic has severe implications for ICU capacity, only widespread school closures (with their associated costs and organizational challenges) are sufficient to mitigate the burden on the worst-affected hospitals