On the Projection of Mortality Rates to Extreme Old Age

This article shows how cohort mortality rate projections of mortality models that involve age effects can be improved and extended to extreme old ages. The proposed approach allows insurers to use such mortality models to obtain valuations of financial instruments such as annuities that depend on projections of extreme old age mortality rates

A Simple Approach to Project Extreme Old Age Mortality Rates and Value Mortality-Related Financial Instruments

This article shows how mortality models that involve age effects can be fitted to ages beyond the sample range using projections of age effects as replacements for age effects that might not be in the sample. This ‘projected age effect’ approach allows insurers to use age-effect mortality models to obtain valuations of financial instruments such as annuities that depend on projections of extreme old ag

Good Practice Principles in Modelling Defined Contribution Pension Plans

We establish 16 good practice principles in modelling defined contribution pension plans. These principles cover the following issues: model specification and calibration; modelling quantifiable uncertainty; modelling member choices; modelling member characteristics, such as occupation and gender; modelling plan charges; modelling longevity risk; modelling the post-retirement period; integrating the pre and post-retirement periods; modelling additional sources of income, such as the state pension and equity release; modelling extraneous factors, such as unemployment risk, activity rates, taxes and entitlements; scenario analysis and stress testing; periodic updating of the model and changing assumptions; and overall fitness for purpose

A systematic review of the impact of psychosocial factors on immunity: Implications for enhancing BCG response against tuberculosis.

Background: Tuberculosis (TB) remains an urgent global public health priority, causing 1.5 million deaths worldwide in 2018. There is evidence that psychosocial factors modulate immune function; however, how this may influence TB risk or BCG vaccine response, and whether this pathway can be modified through social protection, has not been investigated. This paper aims to: a) systematically review evidence of how psychosocial factors influence the expression of biomarkers of immunity, and b) apply this general evidence to propose plausible TB-specific pathways for future study. Methods: Papers reporting on the impact of psychosocial stressors on immune biomarkers in relation to infectious disease risk were identified through a search of the databases MEDLINE, PsycINFO, Global Health and PsycEXTRA alongside reference list and citation searching of key papers. Data extraction and critical appraisal were carried out using a standardised form. The findings were tabulated and synthesised narratively by infectious disease category, and used to propose plausible mechanisms for how psychosocial exposures might influence immune outcomes relevant to TB and BCG response. Results: 27,026 citations were identified, of which 51 met the inclusion criteria. The literature provides evidence of a relationship between psychosocial factors and immune biomarkers. While the direction and strength of associations is heterogenous, some overarching patterns emerged: adverse psychosocial factors (e.g. stress) were generally associated with compromised vaccine response and higher antibody titres to herpesviruses, and vice versa for positive psychosocial factors (e.g. social support). Conclusions: The evidence identifies pathways linking psychosocial factors and immune response: co-viral infection and immune suppression, both of which are potentially relevant to TB and BCG response. However, the heterogeneity in the strength and nature of the impact of psychosocial factors on immune function, and lack of research on the implications of this relationship for TB, underscore the need for TB-specific research

Neutral Gas Properties and Lyα\alpha Escape in Extreme Green Pea Galaxies

Mechanisms regulating the escape of Ly$\alpha$ photons and ionizing radiation remain poorly understood. To study these processes we analyze VLA 21cm observations of one Green Pea (GP), J160810+352809 (hereafter J1608), and HST COS spectra of 17 GP galaxies at $z<0.2$. All are highly ionized: J1608 has the highest [O III] $\lambda5007$/[O II] $\lambda3727$ for star-forming galaxies in SDSS, and the 17 GPs have [O III]/[O II] $\geq6.6$. We set an upper limit on J1608's HI mass of $\log M_{HI}/M_\odot=8.4$, near or below average compared to similar mass dwarf galaxies. In the COS sample, eight GPs show Ly$\alpha$ absorption components, six of which also have Ly$\alpha$ emission. The HI column densities derived from Ly$\alpha$ absorption are high, $\log N_{HI}/$cm$^{-2}=19-21$, well above the LyC optically thick limit. Using low-ionization absorption lines, we measure covering fractions (f_{\mbox{cov}}) of $0.1-1$, and find that f_{\mbox{cov}} strongly anti-correlates with Ly$\alpha$ escape fraction. Low covering fractions may facilitate Ly$\alpha$ and LyC escape through dense neutral regions. GPs with f_{\mbox{cov}}\sim1 all have low neutral gas velocities, while GPs with lower f_{\mbox{cov}}=0.2-0.6 have a larger range of velocities. Conventional mechanical feedback may help establish low f_{\mbox{cov}} in some cases, whereas other processes may be important for GPs with low velocities. Finally, we compare f_{\mbox{cov}} with proposed indicators of LyC escape. Ionizing photon escape likely depends on a combination of neutral gas geometry and kinematics, complicating the use of emission-line diagnostics for identifying LyC emitters.Comment: 21 pages, 11 figures, accepted for publication in Ap

Optical readout of the intracellular environment using nanoparticle transducers

© 2014 Published by Elsevier Ltd. There is rapid growth in the use of multi-functional nanoparticles as transducers to probe the intracellular environment. New designs of nanoparticles can provide quantitative information at sub-cellular resolution on parameters such as pH, temperature and concentration of nicotinamide adenine dinucleotide (NADH) or selected metal ions. This new work builds on the existing practice of using nanoparticles and fluorescent dyes to provide enhanced microscopic images of cells, but goes beyond it by adding new functionalities and analytical capabilities. In this review, we discuss the recent literature on the development of such nanoparticles for simultaneous biosensing and imaging. We explore and examine the different measurements that will be possible, and analyze the likely accuracy and resolution that could be achieved

Synthetic fosmidomycin analogues with altered chelating moieties do not inhibit 1-deoxy-D-xylulose 5-phosphate reductoisomerase or Plasmodium falciparum growth in vitro

Fourteen new fosmidomycin analogues with altered metal chelating groups were prepared and evaluated for inhibition of E. coli Dxr, M. tuberculosis Dxr and the growth of P. falciparum K1 in human erythrocytes. None of the synthesized compounds showed activity against either enzyme or the Plasmodia. This study further underlines the importance of the hydroxamate functionality and illustrates that identifying effective alternative bidentate ligands for this target enzyme is challenging

Sharing Longevity Risk: Why Governments Should Issue Longevity Bonds

Government-issued longevity bonds would allow longevity risk to be shared efficiently and fairly between generations. In exchange for paying a longevity risk premium, the current generation of retirees can look to future generations to hedge their systematic longevity risk. Longevity bonds will lead to a more secure pension savings market, together with a more efficient annuity market. By issuing longevity bonds, governments can aid the establishment of reliable longevity indices and key price points on the longevity risk term structure and help the emerging capital market in longevity-linked instruments to build on this term structure with liquid longevity derivatives

Longevity hedge effectiveness: A decomposition

We use a case study of a pension plan wishing to hedge the longevity risk in its pension liabilities at a future date. The plan has the choice of using either a customised hedge or an index hedge, with the degree of hedge effectiveness being closely related to the correlation between the value of the hedge and the value of the pension liability. The key contribution of this paper is to show how correlation and, therefore, hedge effectiveness can be broken down into contributions from a number of distinct types of risk factors. Our decomposition of the correlation indicates that population basis risk has a significant influence on the correlation. But recalibration risk as well as the length of the recalibration window are also important, as is cohort effect uncertainty. Having accounted for recalibration risk, additional parameter uncertainty has only a marginal impact on hedge effectiveness. Finally, the inclusion of Poisson risk only starts to become significant when the smaller population falls below about 10,000 members over age 50. Our case study shows that, at least for medium and large pension plans, longevity risk can be substantially hedged using index hedges as an alternative to customised longevity hedges. As a consequence, when the hedger's population involves more than about 10,000 members over age 50, index longevity hedges (in conjunction with the other components of an ALM strategy) can provide an effective and lower cost alternative to both a full buy-out of pension liabilities or even to a strategy using customised longevity hedges