Real Lives II: findings from the All-Ireland Gay Men’s Sex Surveys, 2005 and 2006

All Ireland Gay Men's Sex Survey (Vital Statistics) Duration: March 2000 - September 2010 Sigma Research has been working with Ireland's Gay Health Network (GHN) since 2000. GHN is an umbrella organisation working towards gay men's health and HIV prevention. GHN instigated a community-based, self-completion survey to take place across The Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland during the summer of 2000 and commissioned Sigma Research to work with them. This large-scale community research project was the third such survey among gay men in Ireland, and built on previous findings. After the development and piloting of the survey, recruitment commenced at Dublin Pride in June 2000 and continued throughout the summer at similar events in Belfast, Derry, Galway, Limerick and Waterford. Recruitment in bars and clubs took place in Dublin and Cork, and social groups in more rural area were sent copies of the questionnaire and a request to distribute them to their members. 1,290 questionnaires were returned by gay men (81%), bisexual men (11%) and other homosexually active men living in Ireland. 19% of all respondents lived in Northern Ireland. A full survey report, including implications for HIV prevention planning is available to download. Since 2003 Gay Health Network members - particularly The Gay Men's Health Service (Health Services Executive) and the Rainbow Project, Northern Ireland - have collaborated with our online UK version of the Gay Men’s Sex Survey (Vital Statistics) by promoting it to men in Ireland via community websites and postcards distributed on the gay scene

An operational analysis of Lake Surface Water Temperature

Operational analyses of Lake Surface Water Temperature (LSWT) have many potential uses including improvement of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models on regional scales. In November 2011, LSWT was included in the Met Office Operational Sea Surface Temperature and Ice Analysis (OSTIA) product, for 248 lakes globally. The OSTIA analysis procedure, which has been optimised for oceans, has also been used for the lakes in this first version of the product. Infra-red satellite observations of lakes and in situ measurements are assimilated. The satellite observations are based on retrievals optimised for Sea Surface Temperature (SST) which, although they may introduce inaccuracies into the LSWT data, are currently the only near-real-time information available. The LSWT analysis has a global root mean square difference of 1.31 K and a mean difference of 0.65 K (including a cool skin effect of 0.2 K) compared to independent data from the ESA ARC-Lake project for a 3-month period (June to August 2009). It is demonstrated that the OSTIA LSWT is an improvement over the use of climatology to capture the day-to-day variation in global lake surface temperatures

Production and evaporation of higher dimensional black holes

This thesis is a study of the theory and phenomenology of trans-Planckian black holes, in TeV gravity extra-dimensional theories. The introduction starts with the motivation for this beyond the Standard Model scenario (chapter 1), a summary of the theoretical tools to formulate the theory, and a summary of the best bounds from experiment (chapter 2). In chapter 3, after setting up some notation and describing well known solutions in 4 + n-dimensional general relativity, we construct an approximate effective background for a brane charged rotating higher-dimensional black hole. This is achieved by solving Maxwell’s equations perturbatively on the brane to obtain the electromagnetic field. A brief study of the effect of rotation on the absorption of classical particles is also provided. Chapter 4 is a review of methods to model black hole production focusing on the trapped surface method. A model for the mass and angular momentum loss into gravitational radiation is described. A detailed study of the effects of particle mass and charge, for fermions and scalars on the effective brane charged background, is presented in chapters 5 and 6. After coupling the fields to the background, the separated radial wave equations for both perturbations are obtained (chapter 5) and they are integrated using a detailed numerical method as well as analytic approximations (chapter 6). Similarly, a method is described to obtain high accuracy angular functions based on series expansions. We conclude the theoretical study by evaluating the Hawking spectra for various combinations of spin, mass, charge and rotation parameters, and discuss them comparatively. The last part of the thesis is on the implementation of the theoretical results in the new CHARYBDIS2 Monte Carlo simulation of black hole production and decay (chapter 7), and on the analysis of the phenomenological consequences (chapter 8). The main new features implemented in CHARYBDIS2 are: a full treatment of the spin-down phase using the angular and energy distributions of the associated Hawking radiation; an improved model for energy and angular momentum loss in the production process, and a wider range of options for the Planck-scale termination of the decay. The main conclusions of this thesis and an outlook on future directions are summarised in the final chapter.This work was funded by Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia (FCT) - Portugal grant SFRH/BD/23052/2005 co-financed by POPH/FSE

An ensemble of eddy-permitting global ocean reanalyses from the MyOcean project

A set of four eddy-permitting global ocean reanalyses produced in the framework of the MyOcean project have been compared over the altimetry period 1993–2011. The main differences among the reanalyses used here come from the data assimilation scheme implemented to control the ocean state by inserting reprocessed observations of sea surface temperature (SST), in situ temperature and salinity profiles, sea level anomaly and sea-ice concentration. A first objective of this work includes assessing the interannual variability and trends for a series of parameters, usually considered in the community as essential ocean variables: SST, sea surface salinity, temperature and salinity averaged over meaningful layers of the water column, sea level, transports across pre-defined sections, and sea ice parameters. The eddy-permitting nature of the global reanalyses allows also to estimate eddy kinetic energy. The results show that in general there is a good consistency between the different reanalyses. An intercomparison against experiments without data assimilation was done during the MyOcean project and we conclude that data assimilation is crucial for correctly simulating some quantities such as regional trends of sea level as well as the eddy kinetic energy. A second objective is to show that the ensemble mean of reanalyses can be evaluated as one single system regarding its reliability in reproducing the climate signals, where both variability and uncertainties are assessed through the ensemble spread and signal-to-noise ratio. The main advantage of having access to several reanalyses differing in the way data assimilation is performed is that it becomes possible to assess part of the total uncertainty. Given the fact that we use very similar ocean models and atmospheric forcing, we can conclude that the spread of the ensemble of reanalyses is mainly representative of our ability to gauge uncertainty in the assimilation methods. This uncertainty changes a lot from one ocean parameter to another, especially in global indices. However, despite several caveats in the design of the multi-system ensemble, the main conclusion from this study is that an eddy-permitting multi-system ensemble approach has become mature and our results provide a first step towards a systematic comparison of eddy-permitting global ocean reanalyses aimed at providing robust conclusions on the recent evolution of the oceanic state

Prevalence of respiratory disease in Irish preweaned dairy calves using hierarchical Bayesian latent class analysis

IntroductionBovine respiratory disease (BRD) has a significant impact on the health and welfare of dairy calves. It can result in increased antimicrobial usage, decreased growth rate and reduced future productivity. There is no gold standard antemortem diagnostic test for BRD in calves and no estimates of the prevalence of respiratory disease in seasonal calving dairy herds.MethodsTo estimate BRD prevalence in seasonal calving dairy herds in Ireland, 40 dairy farms were recruited and each farm was visited once during one of two calving seasons (spring 2020 & spring 2021). At that visit the prevalence of BRD in 20 calves between 4 and 6 weeks of age was determined using thoracic ultrasound score (≥3) and the Wisconsin respiratory scoring system (≥5). Hierarchical Bayesian latent class analysis was used to estimate the calf-level true prevalence of BRD, and the within-herd prevalence distribution, accounting for the imperfect nature of both diagnostic tests.ResultsIn total, 787 calves were examined, of which 58 (7.4%) had BRD as defined by a Wisconsin respiratory score ≥5 only, 37 (4.7%) had BRD as defined by a thoracic ultrasound score of ≥3 only and 14 (1.8%) calves had BRD based on both thoracic ultrasound and clinical scoring. The primary model assumed both tests were independent and used informed priors for test characteristics. Using this model the true prevalence of BRD was estimated as 4%, 95% Bayesian credible interval (BCI) (1%, 8%). This prevalence estimate is lower or similar to those found in other dairy production systems. Median within herd prevalence varied from 0 to 22%. The prevalence estimate was not sensitive to whether the model was constructed with the tests considered conditionally dependent or independent. When the case definition for thoracic ultrasound was changed to a score ≥2, the prevalence estimate increased to 15% (95% BCI: 6%, 27%).DiscussionThe prevalence of calf respiratory disease, however defined, was low, but highly variable, in these seasonal calving dairy herds

Evaluating operational AVHRR sea surface temperature data at the coastline using surfers

Sea surface temperature (SST) is an essential climate variable that can be measured routinely from Earth Observation (EO) with high temporal and spatial coverage. To evaluate its suitability for an application, it is critical to know the accuracy and precision (performance) of the EO SST data. This requires comparisons with co-located and concomitant in situ data. Owing to a relatively large network of in situ platforms there is a good understanding of the performance of EO SST data in the open ocean. However, at the coastline this performance is not well known, impeded by a lack of in situ data. Here, we used in situ SST measurements collected by a group of surfers over a three year period in the coastal waters of the UK and Ireland, to improve our understanding of the performance of EO SST data at the coastline. At two beaches near the city of Plymouth, UK, the in situ SST measurements collected by the surfers were compared with in situ SST collected from two autonomous buoys located ∼7 km and ∼33 km from the coastline, and showed good agreement, with discrepancies consistent with the spatial separation of the sites. The in situ SST measurements collected by the surfers around the coastline, and those collected offshore by the two autonomous buoys, were used to evaluate the performance of operational Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) EO SST data. Results indicate: (i) a significant reduction in the performance of AVHRR at retrieving SST at the coastline, with root mean square errors in the range of 1.0 to 2.0 °C depending on the temporal difference between match-ups, significantly higher than those at the two offshore stations (0.4 to 0.6 °C); (ii) a systematic negative bias in the AVHRR retrievals of approximately 1 °C at the coastline, not observed at the two offshore stations; and (iii) an increase in the root mean square error at the coastline when the temporal difference between match-ups exceeded three hours. Harnessing new solutions to improve in situ sampling coverage at the coastline, such as tagging surfers with sensors, can improve our understanding of the performance of EO SST data in coastal regions, helping inform users interested in EO SST products for coastal applications. Yet, validating EO SST products using in situ SST data at the coastline is challenged by difficulties reconciling the two measurements, which are provided at different spatial scales in a dynamic and complex environment

The resolution sensitivity of the South Asian monsoon and Indo-Pacific in a global 0.35◦ AGCM

The South Asian monsoon is one of the most significant manifestations of the seasonal cycle. It directly impacts nearly one third of the world’s population and also has substantial global influence. Using 27-year integrations of a high-resolution atmospheric general circulation model (Met Office Unified Model), we study changes in South Asian monsoon precipitation and circulation when horizontal resolution is increased from approximately 200 to 40 km at the equator (N96 to N512, 1.9 to 0.35◦). The high resolution, integration length and ensemble size of the dataset make this the most extensive dataset used to evaluate the resolution sensitivity of the South Asian monsoon to date. We find a consistent pattern of JJAS precipitation and circulation changes as resolution increases, which include a slight increase in precipitation over peninsular India, changes in Indian and Indochinese orographic rain bands, increasing wind speeds in the Somali Jet, increasing precipitation over the Maritime Continent islands and decreasing precipitation over the northern Maritime Continent seas. To diagnose which resolution related processes cause these changes we compare them to published sensitivity experiments that change regional orography and coastlines. Our analysis indicates that improved resolution of the East African Highlands results in the improved representation of the Somali Jet and further suggests that improved resolution of orography over Indochina and the Maritime Continent results in more precipitation over the Maritime Continent islands at the expense of reduced precipitation further north. We also evaluate the resolution sensitivity of monsoon depressions and lows, which contribute more precipitation over northeast India at higher resolution. We conclude that while increasing resolution at these scales does not solve the many monsoon biases that exist in GCMs, it has a number of small, beneficial impacts