2018 update to the HIV-TRePS system: the development of new computational models to predict HIV treatment outcomes, with or without a genotype, with enhanced usability for low-income settings

Objectives Optimizing antiretroviral drug combination on an individual basis can be challenging, particularly in settings with limited access to drugs and genotypic resistance testing. Here we describe our latest computational models to predict treatment responses, with or without a genotype, and compare their predictive accuracy with that of genotyping. Methods Random forest models were trained to predict the probability of virological response to a new therapy introduced following virological failure using up to 50 000 treatment change episodes (TCEs) without a genotype and 18 000 TCEs including genotypes. Independent data sets were used to evaluate the models. This study tested the effects on model accuracy of relaxing the baseline data timing windows, the use of a new filter to exclude probable non-adherent cases and the addition of maraviroc, tipranavir and elvitegravir to the system. Results The no-genotype models achieved area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC) values of 0.82 and 0.81 using the standard and relaxed baseline data windows, respectively. The genotype models achieved AUC values of 0.86 with the new non-adherence filter and 0.84 without. Both sets of models were significantly more accurate than genotyping with rules-based interpretation, which achieved AUC values of only 0.55–0.63, and were marginally more accurate than previous models. The models were able to identify alternative regimens that were predicted to be effective for the vast majority of cases in which the new regimen prescribed in the clinic failed. Conclusions These latest global models predict treatment responses accurately even without a genotype and have the potential to help optimize therapy, particularly in resource-limited settings

Socioeconomic Inequalities in Childhood Undernutrition in India: Analyzing Trends between 1992 and 2005

India experienced a rapid economic boom between 1991 and 2007. However, this economic growth has not translated into improved nutritional status among young Indian children. Additionally, no study has assessed the trends in social disparities in childhood undernutrition in the Indian context. We examined the trends in social disparities in underweight and stunting among Indian children aged less than three years using nationally representative data.We analyzed data from the three cross-sectional rounds of National Family Health Survey of India from 1992, 1998 and 2005. The social factors of interest were: household wealth, maternal education, caste, and urban residence. Using multilevel modeling to account for the nested structure and clustering of data, we fit multivariable logistic regression models to quantify the association between the social factors and the binary outcome variables. The final models additionally included age, gender, birth order of child, religion, and age of mother. We analyzed the trend by testing for interaction of the social factor and survey year in a dataset pooled from all three surveys.While the overall prevalence rates of undernutrition among Indian children less than three decreased over the 1992-2005 period, social disparities in undernutrition over these 14 years either widened or stayed the same. The absolute rates of undernutrition decreased for everyone regardless of their social status. The disparities by household wealth were greater than the disparities by maternal education. There were no disparities in undernutrition by caste, gender or rural residence.There was a steady decrease in the rates of stunting in the 1992-2005 period, while the decline in underweight was greater between 1992 and 1998 than between 1998 and 2005. Social disparities in childhood undernutrition in India either widened or stayed the same during a time of major economic growth. While the advantages of economic growth might be reaching everyone, children from better-off households, with better educated mothers appear to have benefited to a greater extent than less privileged children. The high rates of undernutrition (even among the socially advantaged groups) and the persistent social disparities need to be addressed in an urgent and comprehensive manner

Aging Skin: Nourishing from the Inside Out, Effects of Good Versus Poor Nitrogen Intake on Skin Health and Healing

Skin is the outermost defense organ which protects us from the environment, constituting around 8 % of an adult’s body weight. Healthy skin contains one-eighth of the body’s total proteins. The balance of turnover and synthesis of skin proteins is primarily dependent on the availability of sufficient nitrogen-containing substrates, namely, amino acids, essential for protein metabolism in any other tissue and body organs. The turnover of skin proteins has been shown to be rapid, and the mobilization of amino acids at the expense of skin proteins is relevant in experimental models of protein malnutrition. As a result, alterations in nutritional status should be suspected, diagnosed, and eventually treated for any skin lesions. Protein malnutrition has a dramatic prevalence in patients aged >70 or more, independent of the reason for hospitalization. The quality of nutrition and content of essential amino acids are strictly connected to skin health and integrity of its protein components. Collagen fiber deposition is highly and rapidly influenced by alterations in the essential to nonessential amino acid ratios. The most relevant nutritional factor of skin health is the prevalence of essential amino acids

PRISM (Program of Resources, Information and Support for Mothers) Protocol for a community-randomised trial [ISRCTN03464021]

BACKGROUND: In the year after birth one in six women has a depressive illness, and 30% are still depressed, or depressed again, when their child is 2 years old, 94% experience at least one major health problem (e.g. back pain, perineal pain, mastitis, urinary or faecal incontinence), 26% experience sexual problems and almost 20% have relationship problems with partners. Women with depression report less practical and emotional support from partners, less social support overall, more negative life events, and poorer physical health. Their perceptions of factors contributing to depression are lack of support, isolation, exhaustion and physical health problems. Fewer than one in three affected women seek help in primary care despite frequent contacts. METHODS/DESIGN: PRISM aims to reduce depression and physical health problems of recent mothers through primary care strategies to increase practitioners' response to these issues, and through community-based strategies to develop broader family and community supports for recent mothers. Eligible local governments will be recruited and randomised to intervention or comparison arms, after stratification (urban/rural, size, birth numbers, extent of community activity), avoiding contiguous boundaries. Maternal depression and physical health will be measured six months after birth, in a one year cohort of mothers, in intervention and comparison communities. The sample size to detect a 20% relative reduction in depression, adjusting for cluster sampling, and estimating a population response fraction of 67% is 5740 × 2. Analysis of the physical and mental health outcomes, by intention to treat, will adjust for the correlated structure of the data

Body mass index and height over three generations: evidence from the Lifeways cross-generational cohort study

Background: Obesity and its measure of body mass index are strongly determined by parental body size. Debate continues as to whether both parents contribute equally to offspring body mass which is key to understanding the aetiology of the disease. The aim of this study was to use cohort data from three generations of one family to examine the relative maternal and paternal associations with offspring body mass index and how these associations compare with family height to demonstrate evidence of genetic or environmental cross-generational transmission. Methods: 669 of 1082 families were followed up in 2007/8 as part of the Lifeways study, a prospective observational cross-generation linkage cohort. Height and weight were measured in 529 Irish children aged 5 to 7 years and were self-reported by parents and grandparents. All adults provided information on self-rated health, education status, and indicators of income, diet and physical activity. Associations between the weight, height, and body mass index of family members were examined with mixed models and heritability estimates computed using linear regression analysis. Results: Self-rated health was associated with lower BMI for all family members, as was age for children. When these effects were accounted for evidence of familial associations of BMI from one generation to the next was more apparent in the maternal line. Heritability estimates were higher (h2 = 0.40) for mother-offspring pairs compared to father-offspring pairs (h2 = 0.22). In the previous generation, estimates were higher between mothersparents (h2 = 0.54-0.60) but not between fathers-parents (h2 = -0.04-0.17). Correlations between mother and offspring across two generations remained significant when modelled with fixed variables of socioeconomic status, health, and lifestyle. A similar analysis of height showed strong familial associations from maternal and paternal lines across each generation. Conclusions: This is the first family cohort study to report an enduring association between mother and offspring BMI over three generations. The evidence of BMI transmission over three generations through the maternal line in an observational study corroborates the findings of animal studies. A more detailed analysis of geno and phenotypic data over three generations is warranted to understand the nature of this maternal-offspring relationship.TS 24.4.1

Transcriptomic Signatures of Ash (Fraxinus spp.) Phloem

Ash (Fraxinus spp.) is a dominant tree species throughout urban and forested landscapes of North America (NA). The rapid invasion of NA by emerald ash borer (Agrilus planipennis), a wood-boring beetle endemic to Eastern Asia, has resulted in the death of millions of ash trees and threatens billions more. Larvae feed primarily on phloem tissue, which girdles and kills the tree. While NA ash species including black (F. nigra), green (F. pennsylvannica) and white (F. americana) are highly susceptible, the Asian species Manchurian ash (F. mandshurica) is resistant to A. planipennis perhaps due to their co-evolutionary history. Little is known about the molecular genetics of ash. Hence, we undertook a functional genomics approach to identify the repertoire of genes expressed in ash phloem.Using 454 pyrosequencing we obtained 58,673 high quality ash sequences from pooled phloem samples of green, white, black, blue and Manchurian ash. Intriguingly, 45% of the deduced proteins were not significantly similar to any sequences in the GenBank non-redundant database. KEGG analysis of the ash sequences revealed a high occurrence of defense related genes. Expression analysis of early regulators potentially involved in plant defense (i.e. transcription factors, calcium dependent protein kinases and a lipoxygenase 3) revealed higher mRNA levels in resistant ash compared to susceptible ash species. Lastly, we predicted a total of 1,272 single nucleotide polymorphisms and 980 microsatellite loci, among which seven microsatellite loci showed polymorphism between different ash species.The current transcriptomic data provide an invaluable resource for understanding the genetic make-up of ash phloem, the target tissue of A. planipennis. These data along with future functional studies could lead to the identification/characterization of defense genes involved in resistance of ash to A. planipennis, and in future ash breeding programs for marker development