Spreading of Persistent Infections in Heterogeneous Populations

Up to now, the effects of having heterogeneous networks of contacts have been studied mostly for diseases which are not persistent in time, i.e., for diseases where the infectious period can be considered very small compared to the lifetime of an individual. Moreover, all these previous results have been obtained for closed populations, where the number of individuals does not change during the whole duration of the epidemics. Here, we go one step further and analyze, both analytically and numerically, a radically different kind of diseases: those that are persistent and can last for an individual's lifetime. To be more specific, we particularize to the case of Tuberculosis' (TB) infection dynamics, where the infection remains latent for a period of time before showing up and spreading to other individuals. We introduce an epidemiological model for TB-like persistent infections taking into account the heterogeneity inherent to the population structure. This sort of dynamics introduces new analytical and numerical challenges that we are able to sort out. Our results show that also for persistent diseases the epidemic threshold depends on the ratio of the first two moments of the degree distribution so that it goes to zero in a class of scale-free networks when the system approaches the thermodynamic limit.Comment: 12 pages and 2 figures. Revtex format. Submitted for publication

Effect of Boundary-Layer Bleed Hole Inclination Angle and Scaling on Flow Coefficient Behavior

Phase II data results of the Fundamental Inlet Bleed Experiments study at NASA Glenn Research Center are presented which include flow coefficient behavior for 21 bleed hole configurations. The bleed configurations are all round holes with hole diameters ranging from 0.795 to 6.35 mm, hole inclination angles from 20deg to 90deg, and thickness-to-diameter ratios from 0.25 to 2.0. All configurations were tested at a unit Reynolds number of 2.46 10(exp 7)/m and at discrete local Mach numbers of 1.33, 1.62, 1.98, 2.46, and 2.92. Interactions between the design parameters of hole diameter, hole inclination angle, and thickness-to-diameter as well as the interactions between the flow parameters of pressure ratio and Mach number upon the flow coefficient are examined, and a preliminary statistical model is proposed. An existing correlation is also examined with respect to this data

Behavioral Modernity and the Cultural Transmission of Structured Information: The Semantic Axelrod Model

Cultural transmission models are coming to the fore in explaining increases in the Paleolithic toolkit richness and diversity. During the later Paleolithic, technologies increase not only in terms of diversity but also in their complexity and interdependence. As Mesoudi and O'Brien (2008) have shown, selection broadly favors social learning of information that is hierarchical and structured, and multiple studies have demonstrated that teaching within a social learning environment can increase fitness. We believe that teaching also provides the scaffolding for transmission of more complex cultural traits. Here, we introduce an extension of the Axelrod (1997} model of cultural differentiation in which traits have prerequisite relationships, and where social learning is dependent upon the ordering of those prerequisites. We examine the resulting structure of cultural repertoires as learning environments range from largely unstructured imitation, to structured teaching of necessary prerequisites, and we find that in combination with individual learning and innovation, high probabilities of teaching prerequisites leads to richer cultural repertoires. Our results point to ways in which we can build more comprehensive explanations of the archaeological record of the Paleolithic as well as other cases of technological change.Comment: 24 pages, 7 figures. Submitted to "Learning Strategies and Cultural Evolution during the Paleolithic", edited by Kenichi Aoki and Alex Mesoudi, and presented at the 79th Annual Meeting of the Society for American Archaeology, Austin TX. Revised 5/14/1

Genotypic Diversity and Drug Susceptibility Patterns among M. tuberculosis Complex Isolates from South-Western Ghana

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to use spoligotyping and large sequence polymorphism (LSP) to study the population structure of M. tuberculosis complex (MTBC) isolates. METHODS: MTBC isolates were identified using standard biochemical procedures, IS6110 PCR, and large sequence polymorphisms. Isolates were further typed using spoligotyping, and the phenotypic drug susceptibility patterns were determined by the proportion method. RESULT: One hundred and sixty-two isolates were characterised by LSP typing. Of these, 130 (80.25%) were identified as Mycobacterium tuberculosis sensu stricto (MTBss), with the Cameroon sub-lineage being dominant (N = 59/130, 45.38%). Thirty-two (19.75%) isolates were classified as Mycobacterium africanum type 1, and of these 26 (81.25%) were identified as West-Africa I, and 6 (18.75%) as West-Africa II. Spoligotyping sub-lineages identified among the MTBss included Haarlem (N = 15, 11.53%), Ghana (N = 22, 16.92%), Beijing (4, 3.08%), EAI (4, 3.08%), Uganda I (4, 3.08%), LAM (2, 1.54%), X (N = 1, 0.77%) and S (2, 1.54%). Nine isolates had SIT numbers with no identified sub-lineages while 17 had no SIT numbers. MTBss isolates were more likely to be resistant to streptomycin (p>0.008) and to any drug resistance (p>0.03) when compared to M. africanum. CONCLUSION: This study demonstrated that overall 36.4% of TB in South-Western Ghana is caused by the Cameroon sub-lineage of MTBC and 20% by M. africanum type 1, including both the West-Africa 1 and West-Africa 2 lineages. The diversity of MTBC in Ghana should be considered when evaluating new TB vaccine

Prioritising between direct observation of therapy and case-finding interventions for tuberculosis: use of population impact measures

BACKGROUND: Population impact measures (PIMs) have been developed as tools to help policy-makers with locally relevant decisions over health risks and benefits. This involves estimating and prioritising potential benefits of interventions in specific populations. Using tuberculosis (TB) in India as an example, we examined the population impact of two interventions: direct observation of therapy and increasing case-finding. METHODS: PIMs were calculated using published literature and national data for India, and applied to a notional population of 100 000 people. Data included the incidence or prevalence of smear-positive TB and the relative risk reduction from increasing case finding and the use of direct observation of therapy (applied to the baseline risks over the next year), and the incremental proportion of the population eligible for the proposed interventions. RESULTS: In a population of 100 000 people in India, the directly observed component of the Directly Observed Treatment, Short-course (DOTS) programme may prevent 0.188 deaths from TB in the next year compared with 1.79 deaths by increasing TB case finding. The costs of direct observation are (in international dollars) I$5960 and of case finding are I$4839 or I$31702 and I$2703 per life saved respectively. CONCLUSION: Increasing case-finding for TB will save nearly 10 times more lives than will the use of the directly observed component of DOTS in India, at a smaller cost per life saved. The demonstration of the population impact, using simple and explicit numbers, may be of value to policy-makers as they prioritise interventions for their populations

Inferring the Population Expansions in Peopling of Japan

Background: Extensive studies in different fields have been performed to reconstruct the prehistory of populations in the Japanese archipelago. Estimates the ancestral population dynamics based on Japanese molecular sequences can extend our understanding about the colonization of Japan and the ethnogenesis of modern Japanese. Methodology/Principal Findings: We applied Bayesian skyline plot (BSP) with a dataset based on 952 Japanese mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) genomes to depict the female effective population size (Nef) through time for the total Japanese and each of the major mtDNA haplogroups in Japanese. Our results revealed a rapid N ef growth since,5 thousand years ago had left,72 % Japanese mtDNA lineages with a salient signature. The BSP for the major mtDNA haplogroups indicated some different demographic history. Conclusions/Significance: The results suggested that the rapid population expansion acted as a major force in shaping current maternal pool of Japanese. It supported a model for population dynamics in Japan in which the prehistoric population growth initiated in the Middle Jomon Period experienced a smooth and swift transition from Jomon to Yayoi, and then continued through the Yayoi Period. The confounding demographic backgrounds of different mtDN

Has the DOTS Strategy Improved Case Finding or Treatment Success? An Empirical Assessment

Background: Nearly fifteen years after the start of WHO's DOTS strategy, tuberculosis remains a major global health problem. Given the lack of empirical evidence that DOTS reduces tuberculosis burden, considerable debate has arisen about its place in the future of global tuberculosis control efforts. An independent evaluation of DOTS, one of the most widely-implemented and longest-running interventions in global health, is a prerequisite for meaningful improvements to tuberculosis control efforts, including WHO's new Stop TB Strategy. We investigate the impact of the expansion of the DOTS strategy on tuberculosis case finding and treatment success, using only empirical data. Methods and Findings: We study the effect of DOTS using time-series cross-sectional methods. We first estimate the impact of DOTS expansion on case detection, using reported case notification data and controlling for other determinants of change in notifications, including HIV prevalence, GDP, and country-specific effects. We then estimate the effect of DOTS expansion on treatment success. DOTS programme variables had no statistically significant impact on case detection in a wide range of models and specifications. DOTS population coverage had a significant effect on overall treatment success rates, such that countries with full DOTS coverage benefit from at least an 18% increase in treatment success (95% CI: 5–31%). Conclusions: The DOTS technical package improved overall treatment success. By contrast, DOTS expansion had no effect on case detection. This finding is less optimistic than previous analyses. Better epidemiological and programme data would facilitate future monitoring and evaluation efforts.Version of Recor

Shape Variation in Aterian Tanged Tools and the Origins of Projectile Technology: A Morphometric Perspective on Stone Tool Function

BACKGROUND: Recent findings suggest that the North African Middle Stone Age technocomplex known as the Aterian is both much older than previously assumed, and certainly associated with fossils exhibiting anatomically modern human morphology and behavior. The Aterian is defined by the presence of 'tanged' or 'stemmed' tools, which have been widely assumed to be among the earliest projectile weapon tips. The present study systematically investigates morphological variation in a large sample of Aterian tools to test the hypothesis that these tools were hafted and/or used as projectile weapons. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Both classical morphometrics and Elliptical Fourier Analysis of tool outlines are used to show that the shape variation in the sample exhibits size-dependent patterns consistent with a reduction of the tools from the tip down, with the tang remaining intact. Additionally, the process of reduction led to increasing side-to-side asymmetries as the tools got smaller. Finally, a comparison of shape-change trajectories between Aterian tools and Late Paleolithic arrowheads from the North German site of Stellmoor reveal significant differences in terms of the amount and location of the variation. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The patterns of size-dependent shape variation strongly support the functional hypothesis of Aterian tools as hafted knives or scrapers with alternating active edges, rather than as weapon tips. Nevertheless, the same morphological patterns are interpreted as one of the earliest evidences for a hafting modification, and for the successful combination of different raw materials (haft and stone tip) into one implement, in itself an important achievement in the evolution of hominin technologies

Influence of handaxe size and shape on cutting efficiency: a large-scale experiment and morphometric analysis

Handaxes represent one of the most temporally enduring and geographically widespread of Palaeolithic artifacts and thus comprised a key technological strategy of many hominin populations. Archaeologically observable variation in the size (i.e., mass) and shape properties of handaxes has been frequently noted. It is logical to ask whether some of this variability may have had functional implications. Here, we report the results of a large-scale (n = 500 handaxes) experiment designed to examine the influence of variation in handaxe size and shape on cutting efficiency rates during a laboratory task. We used a comprehensive dataset of morphometric (size-adjusted) shape variables and statistical methods (including multivariate methods) to address this issue. Our first set of analyses focused on handaxe mass/size variability. This analysis demonstrated that, at a broad-scale level of variation, handaxe mass may have been free to vary independently of functional (cutting) efficiency. Our analysis also, however, identified that there will be a task-specific threshold in terms of functional effectiveness at the lower end of handaxe mass variation. This implies that hominins may have targeted design forms to meet minimal (task-specific) thresholds, and may also have managed handaxe reduction and discard in respect to such factors. Our second set of analyses focused on handaxe shape variability. This analysis also indicated that considerable variation in handaxe shape may occur independently of any strong effect on cutting efficiency. We discuss how these results have several implications for considerations of handaxe variation in the archaeological record. At a general level, our results demonstrate that variability within and between handaxe assemblages in terms of their size and shape properties will not necessarily have had immediate or strong impact on their effectiveness when used for cutting, and that such variability may have been related to factors other than functional issues