Thermotectonic evolution of an extensional dome: the Cenozoic Osogovo-Lisets core complex (Kraishte zone, western Bulgaria)

The Kraishte region of Bulgaria is located at the junction of the Balkanides and Hellenides-Dinarides tectonic belts. Fission-track analysis on both apatites and zircons documents the Cenozoic exhumation of a Precambrian basement bounded by low-angle detachments. Late Eocene-Oligocene extension began prior to 47Ma and was dominantly in a top-to-the-southwest direction, confirmed by the sense of younging of apatite and zircon ages. This crustal extension controlled the formation of half-graben sedimentary basins on the hanging walls of the detachments. Thermal modelling of these hanging wall units provides evidence for heat transfer across the detachments from a relatively warm rising footwall. From 32 to 29Ma, pervasive magmatic activity resulted in the emplacement of rhyolitic to dacitic subvolcanic bodies and dykes, along with intrusion of the Osogovo granite. The results give evidence for extension in the southern Balkan older than, and separated from, the Miocene to Quaternary Aegean extension. This might reflect transtension during northeastward extrusion and rotation of continental fragments around the western boundary of Moesia. Eocene-Oligocene extension seems to have been controlled by the distribution of earlier thickening all around the Carpatho-Balkanic orocline, which is reflected by the Cretaceous emplacement of the Morava Nappe in the Kraisht

Active Mass Under Pressure

After a historical introduction to Poisson's equation for Newtonian gravity, its analog for static gravitational fields in Einstein's theory is reviewed. It appears that the pressure contribution to the active mass density in Einstein's theory might also be noticeable at the Newtonian level. A form of its surprising appearance, first noticed by Richard Chase Tolman, was discussed half a century ago in the Hamburg Relativity Seminar and is resolved here.Comment: 28 pages, 4 figure

Facts, Norms and Expected Utility Functions

International audienceIn this paper we want to explore an argumentative pattern that provides a normative justification for expected utility functions grounded on empirical evidence, showing how it worked in three different episodes of their development. The argument claims that we should prudentially maximize our expected utility since this is the criterion effectively applied by those who are considered wisest in making risky choices (be it gamblers or businessmen). Yet, to justify the adoption of this rule, it should be proven that this is empirically true: i.e., that a given function allows us to predict the choices of that particular class of agents. We show how expected utility functions were introduced and contested in accordance to this pattern in the 18th century and how it recurred in the 1950s when M. Allais made his case against the neobernoullians

Hamilton's principle: why is the integrated difference of kinetic and potential energy minimized?

I present an intuitive answer to an often asked question: why is the integrated difference K-U between the kinetic and potential energy the quantity to be minimized in Hamilton's principle? Using elementary arguments, I map the problem of finding the path of a moving particle connecting two points to that of finding the minimum potential energy of a static string. The mapping implies that the configuration of a non--stretchable string of variable tension corresponds to the spatial path dictated by the Principle of Least Action; that of a stretchable string in space-time is the one dictated by Hamilton's principle. This correspondence provides the answer to the question above: while a downward force curves the trajectory of a particle in the (x,t) plane downward, an upward force of the same magnitude stretches the string to the same configuration x(t).Comment: 7 pages, 4 figures. Submitted to the American Journal of Physic

A nonparametric urn-based approach to interacting failing systems with an application to credit risk modeling

In this paper we propose a new nonparametric approach to interacting failing systems (FS), that is systems whose probability of failure is not negligible in a fixed time horizon, a typical example being firms and financial bonds. The main purpose when studying a FS is to calculate the probability of default and the distribution of the number of failures that may occur during the observation period. A model used to study a failing system is defined default model. In particular, we present a general recursive model constructed by the means of inter- acting urns. After introducing the theoretical model and its properties we show a first application to credit risk modeling, showing how to assess the idiosyncratic probability of default of an obligor and the joint probability of failure of a set of obligors in a portfolio of risks, that are divided into reliability classes

How brains make decisions

This chapter, dedicated to the memory of Mino Freund, summarizes the Quantum Decision Theory (QDT) that we have developed in a series of publications since 2008. We formulate a general mathematical scheme of how decisions are taken, using the point of view of psychological and cognitive sciences, without touching physiological aspects. The basic principles of how intelligence acts are discussed. The human brain processes involved in decisions are argued to be principally different from straightforward computer operations. The difference lies in the conscious-subconscious duality of the decision making process and the role of emotions that compete with utility optimization. The most general approach for characterizing the process of decision making, taking into account the conscious-subconscious duality, uses the framework of functional analysis in Hilbert spaces, similarly to that used in the quantum theory of measurements. This does not imply that the brain is a quantum system, but just allows for the simplest and most general extension of classical decision theory. The resulting theory of quantum decision making, based on the rules of quantum measurements, solves all paradoxes of classical decision making, allowing for quantitative predictions that are in excellent agreement with experiments. Finally, we provide a novel application by comparing the predictions of QDT with experiments on the prisoner dilemma game. The developed theory can serve as a guide for creating artificial intelligence acting by quantum rules.Comment: Latex file, 20 pages, 3 figure

Anomalous Behavior of the Contact Process with Aging

The effect of power-law aging on a contact process is studied by simulation and using a mean-field approach. We find that the system may approach its stationary state in a nontrivial, nonmonotonous way. For the particular value of the aging exponent, $\alpha=1$, we observe a rich set of behaviors: depending on the process parameters, the relaxation to the stationary state proceeds as $1/\ln t$ or via a power law with a nonuniversal exponent. Simulation results suggest that for $0<\alpha<1$, the absorbing-state phase transition is in the universality class of directed percolation.Comment: 4 pages revtex (twocolumn, psfig), 3 figure

Dynamics & Predictions in the Co-Event Interpretation

Sorkin has introduced a new, observer independent, interpretation of quantum mechanics that can give a successful realist account of the 'quantum microworld' as well as explaining how classicality emerges at the level of observable events for a range of systems including single time 'Copenhagen measurements'. This 'co-event interpretation' presents us with a new ontology, in which a single 'co-event' is real. A new ontology necessitates a review of the dynamical & predictive mechanism of a theory, and in this paper we begin the process by exploring means of expressing the dynamical and predictive content of histories theories in terms of co-events.Comment: 35 pages. Revised after refereein

Epidemic processes in complex networks

In recent years the research community has accumulated overwhelming evidence for the emergence of complex and heterogeneous connectivity patterns in a wide range of biological and sociotechnical systems. The complex properties of real-world networks have a profound impact on the behavior of equilibrium and nonequilibrium phenomena occurring in various systems, and the study of epidemic spreading is central to our understanding of the unfolding of dynamical processes in complex networks. The theoretical analysis of epidemic spreading in heterogeneous networks requires the development of novel analytical frameworks, and it has produced results of conceptual and practical relevance. A coherent and comprehensive review of the vast research activity concerning epidemic processes is presented, detailing the successful theoretical approaches as well as making their limits and assumptions clear. Physicists, mathematicians, epidemiologists, computer, and social scientists share a common interest in studying epidemic spreading and rely on similar models for the description of the diffusion of pathogens, knowledge, and innovation. For this reason, while focusing on the main results and the paradigmatic models in infectious disease modeling, the major results concerning generalized social contagion processes are also presented. Finally, the research activity at the forefront in the study of epidemic spreading in coevolving, coupled, and time-varying networks is reported.Comment: 62 pages, 15 figures, final versio

Under pressure: Response urgency modulates striatal and insula activity during decision-making under risk

When deciding whether to bet in situations that involve potential monetary loss or gain (mixed gambles), a subjective sense of pressure can influence the evaluation of the expected utility associated with each choice option. Here, we explored how gambling decisions, their psychophysiological and neural counterparts are modulated by an induced sense of urgency to respond. Urgency influenced decision times and evoked heart rate responses, interacting with the expected value of each gamble. Using functional MRI, we observed that this interaction was associated with changes in the activity of the striatum, a critical region for both reward and choice selection, and within the insula, a region implicated as the substrate of affective feelings arising from interoceptive signals which influence motivational behavior. Our findings bridge current psychophysiological and neurobiological models of value representation and action-programming, identifying the striatum and insular cortex as the key substrates of decision-making under risk and urgency