Rainfall Thresholding and Susceptibility assessment of rainfall induced landslides: application to landslide management in St Thomas, Jamaica

The final publication is available at Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10064-009-0232-zThe parish of St Thomas has one of the highest densities of landslides in Jamaica, which impacts the residents, local economy and the built and natural environment. These landslides result from a combination of steep slopes, faulting, heavy rainfall and the presence of highly weathered volcanics, sandstones, limestones and sandstone/shale series and are particularly prevalent during the hurricane season (June–November). The paper reports a study of the rainfall thresholds and landslide susceptibility assessment to assist the prediction, mitigation and management of slope instability in landslide-prone areas of the parish

Genetic risk prediction and neurobiological understanding of alcoholism

We have used a translational Convergent Functional Genomics (CFG) approach to discover genes involved in alcoholism, by gene-level integration of genome-wide association study (GWAS) data from a German alcohol dependence cohort with other genetic and gene expression data, from human and animal model studies, similar to our previous work in bipolar disorder and schizophrenia. A panel of all the nominally significant P-value single-nucleotide length polymorphisms (SNPs) in the top candidate genes discovered by CFG (n = 135 genes, 713 SNPs) was used to generate a genetic risk prediction score (GRPS), which showed a trend towards significance (P = 0.053) in separating alcohol dependent individuals from controls in an independent German test cohort. We then validated and prioritized our top findings from this discovery work, and subsequently tested them in three independent cohorts, from two continents. In order to validate and prioritize the key genes that drive behavior without some of the pleiotropic environmental confounds present in humans, we used a stress-reactive animal model of alcoholism developed by our group, the D-box binding protein (DBP) knockout mouse, consistent with the surfeit of stress theory of addiction proposed by Koob and colleagues. A much smaller panel (n = 11 genes, 66 SNPs) of the top CFG-discovered genes for alcoholism, cross-validated and prioritized by this stress-reactive animal model showed better predictive ability in the independent German test cohort (P = 0.041). The top CFG scoring gene for alcoholism from the initial discovery step, synuclein alpha (SNCA) remained the top gene after the stress-reactive animal model cross-validation. We also tested this small panel of genes in two other independent test cohorts from the United States, one with alcohol dependence (P = 0.00012) and one with alcohol abuse (a less severe form of alcoholism; P = 0.0094). SNCA by itself was able to separate alcoholics from controls in the alcohol-dependent cohort (P = 0.000013) and the alcohol abuse cohort (P = 0.023). So did eight other genes from the panel of 11 genes taken individually, albeit to a lesser extent and/or less broadly across cohorts. SNCA, GRM3 and MBP survived strict Bonferroni correction for multiple comparisons. Taken together, these results suggest that our stress-reactive DBP animal model helped to validate and prioritize from the CFG-discovered genes some of the key behaviorally relevant genes for alcoholism. These genes fall into a series of biological pathways involved in signal transduction, transmission of nerve impulse (including myelination) and cocaine addiction. Overall, our work provides leads towards a better understanding of illness, diagnostics and therapeutics, including treatment with omega-3 fatty acids. We also examined the overlap between the top candidate genes for alcoholism from this work and the top candidate genes for bipolar disorder, schizophrenia, anxiety from previous CFG analyses conducted by us, as well as cross-tested genetic risk predictions. This revealed the significant genetic overlap with other major psychiatric disorder domains, providing a basis for comorbidity and dual diagnosis, and placing alcohol use in the broader context of modulating the mental landscape

708 Common and 2010 rare DISC1 locus variants identified in 1542 subjects:analysis for association with psychiatric disorder and cognitive traits

A balanced t(1;11) translocation that transects the Disrupted in schizophrenia 1 (DISC1) gene shows genome-wide significant linkage for schizophrenia and recurrent major depressive disorder (rMDD) in a single large Scottish family, but genome-wide and exome sequencing-based association studies have not supported a role for DISC1 in psychiatric illness. To explore DISC1 in more detail, we sequenced 528 kb of the DISC1 locus in 653 cases and 889 controls. We report 2718 validated single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) of which 2010 have a minor allele frequency of <1%. Only 38% of these variants are reported in the 1000 Genomes Project European subset. This suggests that many DISC1 SNPs remain undiscovered and are essentially private. Rare coding variants identified exclusively in patients were found in likely functional protein domains. Significant region-wide association was observed between rs16856199 and rMDD (P=0.026, unadjusted P=6.3 × 10-5, OR=3.48). This was not replicated in additional recurrent major depression samples (replication P=0.11). Combined analysis of both the original and replication set supported the original association (P=0.0058, OR=1.46). Evidence for segregation of this variant with disease in families was limited to those of rMDD individuals referred from primary care. Burden analysis for coding and non-coding variants gave nominal associations with diagnosis and measures of mood and cognition. Together, these observations are likely to generalise to other candidate genes for major mental illness and may thus provide guidelines for the design of future studies. © 2014 Macmillan Publishers Limited

Landslide susceptibility mapping at VAZ watershed (Iran) using an artificial neural network model: a comparison between multilayer perceptron (MLP) and radial basic function (RBF) algorithms

Landslide susceptibility and hazard assessments are the most important steps in landslide risk mapping. The main objective of this study was to investigate and compare the results of two artificial neural network (ANN) algorithms, i.e., multilayer perceptron (MLP) and radial basic function (RBF) for spatial prediction of landslide susceptibility in Vaz Watershed, Iran. At first, landslide locations were identified by aerial photographs and field surveys, and a total of 136 landside locations were constructed from various sources. Then the landslide inventory map was randomly split into a training dataset 70 % (95 landslide locations) for training the ANN model and the remaining 30 % (41 landslides locations) was used for validation purpose. Nine landslide conditioning factors such as slope, slope aspect, altitude, land use, lithology, distance from rivers, distance from roads, distance from faults, and rainfall were constructed in geographical information system. In this study, both MLP and RBF algorithms were used in artificial neural network model. The results showed that MLP with Broyden–Fletcher–Goldfarb–Shanno learning algorithm is more efficient than RBF in landslide susceptibility mapping for the study area. Finally the landslide susceptibility maps were validated using the validation data (i.e., 30 % landslide location data that was not used during the model construction) using area under the curve (AUC) method. The success rate curve showed that the area under the curve for RBF and MLP was 0.9085 (90.85 %) and 0.9193 (91.93 %) accuracy, respectively. Similarly, the validation result showed that the area under the curve for MLP and RBF models were 0.881 (88.1 %) and 0.8724 (87.24 %), respectively. The results of this study showed that landslide susceptibility mapping in the Vaz Watershed of Iran using the ANN approach is viable and can be used for land use planning

DISC1 genetics, biology and psychiatric illness

Psychiatric disorders are highly heritable, and in many individuals likely arise from the combined effects of genes and the environment. A substantial body of evidence points towards DISC1 being one of the genes that influence risk of schizophrenia, bipolar disorder and depression, and functional studies of DISC1 consequently have the potential to reveal much about the pathways that lead to major mental illness. Here, we review the evidence that DISC1 influences disease risk through effects upon multiple critical pathways in the developing and adult brain

Unveiling hydrological dynamics in data-scarce regions: experiences from the Ethiopian Rift Valley Lakes Basin

The hydrological system of the Rift Valley Lakes in Ethiopia has recently experienced changes over the past 2 decades. Potential causes for these changes include anthropogenic, hydro-climatic, and geological factors. The main objective of this study was to utilize an integrated methodology to gain a comprehensive understanding of the hydrological systems and potential driving factors within a complex and data-scarce region. To this end, we integrated a hydrologic model, change point analysis, indicators of hydrological alteration (IHA), and a bathymetry survey to investigate hydrological dynamics and potential causes. A hydrologic model (the Soil and Water Assessment Tool Plus, SWAT+) was parameterized for the gauged watersheds and extended to the ungauged watersheds using multi-site regionalization techniques. The SWAT+ model performed very well to satisfactorily for daily streamflow in all watersheds with respect to the objective functions of the Kling–Gupta efficiency (KGE), the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), and percent bias (PBIAS). The findings reveal notable changes in lake inflows and lake levels over the past 2 decades. Lake Chamo experienced an increase in area of 30.1 km2 (9.5 %), an increase in depth of 4.4 m (30.9 %), and an increase in volume of 7.8×108 m3 (27.2 %). In contrast, Lake Abijata witnessed an extraordinary 68 % decrease in area and a depth decrease of 1.6 m (37.2 %). During the impact period, the mean annual rainfall experienced a decrease of 6.5 % and 2.7 % over Lake Abijata and Lake Chamo, respectively. Actual evapotranspiration decreased by 2.9 % in Lake Abijata but increased by up to 4.5 % in Lake Chamo. Surface inflow to Lake Abijata decreased by 12.5 %, while Lake Chamo experienced an 80.5 % increase in surface inflow. Sediment depth in Lake Chamo also increased by 0.6 m (4.2 %). The results highlight that the changing hydrological regime in Lake Chamo is driven by increased surface runoff and sediment intrusion associated with anthropogenic influences. The hydrological regime of Lake Abijata is affected by water abstraction from feeding rivers and lakes for industrial and irrigation purposes. This integrated methodology provides a holistic understanding of complex data-scarce hydrological systems and potential driving factors in the Rift Valley Lakes in Ethiopia, which could have global applicability.</p

In Support of a Patient-Driven Initiative and Petition to Lower the High Price of Cancer Drugs

Comment in Lowering the High Cost of Cancer Drugs--III. [Mayo Clin Proc. 2016] Lowering the High Cost of Cancer Drugs--I. [Mayo Clin Proc. 2016] Lowering the High Cost of Cancer Drugs--IV. [Mayo Clin Proc. 2016] In Reply--Lowering the High Cost of Cancer Drugs. [Mayo Clin Proc. 2016] US oncologists call for government regulation to curb drug price rises. [BMJ. 2015

Factors associated with prelacteal feeding practices in Debre Berhan district, North Shoa, Central Ethiopia: a cross-sectional, community-based study

Abstract Background Prelacteal feeding is one of the major harmful newborn feeding practices and is top on the list of global public health concerns. The practice deprives newborns of valuable nutrients and protection of colostrum and exposes them to preventable morbidity and mortality. Studying the prevalence and factors influencing the prelacteal feeding practice of mothers will help program managers and implementers to properly address broad major public health problems. Therefore, this study aims to investigate the prevalence of prelacteal feeding practices and its associated factors among mother-infant dyads in the Debre Berhan district of North Shoa administrative zone, central Ethiopia. Methods A community-based cross-sectional study design was conducted from January through to April 2014 among 634 mother-infant dyads. The data were entered into EPI Info version 3.5.1. (CDC, Atlanta, Georgia). All statistical analysis was conducted using Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) research IBM version 20.0. The prevalence of prelacteal feeding was determined using the ‘recall since birth’ method. Multi-variable logistic regression analysis was employed to control confounders in determining the association between prelacteal feeding practices and selected independent variables. Adjusted Odds Ratio (AOR), with 95% Confidence Interval (CI) and P < 0.05 was used to claim statistical significance. Results The prevalence of prelacteal feeding practice was 14.2% (95% CI: 11.00–17.00%). Slightly greater than half, 48 (53.3%) of prelacteal fed newborns were given butter. Home delivery was a major risk factor for practicing prelacteal feeding. Mothers who delivered their indexed infant at home practiced prelacteal feeding over four folds more than mothers who delivered in a health institution (Adjusted Odds Ratio (AOR) 4.70; 95% CI: 2.56–8.60, p-value = 0.001). Mothers who did not initiate breastfeeding within an hour were six times more likely to practice prelacteal feeding (AOR 5.58; 3.21–9.46, p-value = 0.001). Similarly, with regards to the occupation of mothers, farmers practiced prelacteal feedings (AOR 4.33; 95% CI: 1.73–10.81, p-value = 0.002) up to four folds more than their counterpart housewives. Mothers who can read and write are 54% less likely to practice prelacteal feeding than their counterpart, illiterate mothers, with (AOR 0.46; 95% CI: 0.22–0.98, p-value = 0.044). Conclusions In the Debre Berhan town of North Shoa administrative zone, central Ethiopia, almost one-sixth of mothers practiced prelacteal feeding. Therefore, improving access to information about appropriate newborn feeding practices, encouraging mothers to deliver their babies in health institutions and inspiring them to initiate breastfeeding within an hour of birth is recommended