Efectos de la variabilidad de la estructura dinámica y termodinámica del calentamiento atmosférico en la climatología de Colombia

El calor integrado en la columna atmosférica en la banda tropical cobra importancia a nivel global por su influencia en la modulación del clima mundial y la variabilidad climática a nivel tropical y regional. El estudio de la convección profunda en función de los cambios de la temperatura superficial del mar y el papel de forzador térmico que cumple la piscina caliente oceánica permite identificar las zonas de activación de la convección a partir de la una temperatura umbral que ha estado en constante cambio y a partir de la cual se define la piscina caliente dinámica, entendida como las zonas de la atmósfera de ascenso de aire húmedo o zonas de calentamiento diabático de magnitud positiva, las cuales indican intensificación en las ramas de ascenso de la celda de circulación de Hadley. La variabilidad interanual de la estructura vertical del calentamiento diabático esta asociada directamente al fenómeno ENSO. El área de la piscina caliente dinámica ha permanecido constante a pesar del aumento de la cantidad de calor contenido en la columna atmosférica. Con base en esto, se analiza cómo ha evolucionado la expansión de la piscina caliente definida por temperaturas iguales y superiores 28 C y cómo los modelos de cambio climático establecen la relación del sistema acoplado océano-atmósfera y sus efectos en clima a nivel global y regional. Los modelos de circulación global de los proyectos CMIP3 y CMIP5 indican aumentos en la temperatura superficial del mar bajo varios escenarios de cambio climático acompañados de una expansión del área de la piscina caliente para el siglo XXI, además los patrones de calentamiento integrado en la vertical localizan correctamente la convección en la banda tropical, y la relación entre estos dos indican una tendencia creciente de la temperatura umbral de convección. A la luz de estos resultados, se analizan los efectos de la variabilidad interanual del calentamiento atmosférico en el clima tropical.Abstract: The heating integrated into the atmospheric column of the tropical band becomes globally important because of its in uence on the modulation of global climate and weather variability at the tropical and regional levels. The study of deep convection based on the changes the sea surface temperature and the role of thermal forcer that meets the oceanic warm pool allows to identify the areas of activation of convection from the threshold temperature that is constantly changing and which de nes the dynamics warm pool, un derstood as the atmosphere of positive warming in which the humid air rises, and which have shown an intensi cation of the cells of global circulation, and a close relationship with the variability of the ENSO phenomenon. Constancy has been found in the warmpool area despite the increase in the amount of heating contained in the immediately upper atmospheric column. Based on this, we analyze how the expansion of the warm pool de ned by equal and higher temperatures has evolvedMaestrí

Matemáticas en contexto

El libro compila estrategias didácticas derivadas del programa de formación complementario escritas por instructores técnicos de diferentes regionales del país, describe la forma en que se incorpora el conocimiento matemático en campos específicos de diferentes áreas de formación laboral basado en las teorías didácticas y reflexiones pedagógicas de instructores.The book compiles the didactic strategies derived from the complementary training program by the technical instructors of the regional media of the country, describes the way in which mathematical knowledge is incorporated in the fields of different areas of work training based on theories didactic and pedagogical reflections of instructors.Consideraciones frente al aprendizaje de las matemáticas -- Perspectiva constructivista -- Teoría de las situaciones didácticas -- Modelación matemática -- Mediación tecnológica -- Pensamiento numérico variacional -- Pensamiento numérico -- Pensamiento variacional -- Diseño de modelo matemático con aplicación de costos de producción -- Modelo matemático del consumo de gas en un artefacto afectado por su presión de trabajo -- Planeación de la producción agrícola: Caso plan óptimo de siembra que permita alcanzar la máxima rentabilidad del cultivo -- Estudio del Álgebra de Boole -- Diseño de un modelo de inventarios para una pequeña empresa de calzado de dotación -- Estudio de la Ley de Ohm mediante herramienta interactiva -- Pensamiento métrico-geométrico -- Pensamiento geométrico -- Pensamiento métrico -- Caso de optimización de recursos en el sector industrial de la confección -- Optimización de espacios para huertas urbanas -- Optimización de los costos del espacio de almacenamiento en microempresas y pequeñas empresas de acuerdo con las normas de seguridad vigentes -- Unidad de medida métrica para confección de ropa exterior femenina -- Optimización de recursos aplicando el proceso administrativo -- Pensamiento aleatorio -- Estadística Básica para Articulación con la Media -- Evaluación del impacto de la accidentalidad en la implementación del Sistema de Gestión de Seguridad y Salud en el Trabajo (sg-sst) por medio de indicadores -- Identificar los aspectos de la declaración de renta para una persona natural no obligada a llevar contabilidad -- Fortalecimiento de la estadística: caso de las unidades productivas del Centro de Biotecnología Agropecuaria -- Estadística dinámica -- Resultados preliminaresna[270 páginas

Clonal chromosomal mosaicism and loss of chromosome Y in elderly men increase vulnerability for SARS-CoV-2

The pandemic caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2, COVID-19) had an estimated overall case fatality ratio of 1.38% (pre-vaccination), being 53% higher in males and increasing exponentially with age. Among 9578 individuals diagnosed with COVID-19 in the SCOURGE study, we found 133 cases (1.42%) with detectable clonal mosaicism for chromosome alterations (mCA) and 226 males (5.08%) with acquired loss of chromosome Y (LOY). Individuals with clonal mosaic events (mCA and/or LOY) showed a 54% increase in the risk of COVID-19 lethality. LOY is associated with transcriptomic biomarkers of immune dysfunction, pro-coagulation activity and cardiovascular risk. Interferon-induced genes involved in the initial immune response to SARS-CoV-2 are also down-regulated in LOY. Thus, mCA and LOY underlie at least part of the sex-biased severity and mortality of COVID-19 in aging patients. Given its potential therapeutic and prognostic relevance, evaluation of clonal mosaicism should be implemented as biomarker of COVID-19 severity in elderly people. Among 9578 individuals diagnosed with COVID-19 in the SCOURGE study, individuals with clonal mosaic events (clonal mosaicism for chromosome alterations and/or loss of chromosome Y) showed an increased risk of COVID-19 lethality

Congreso Internacional de Responsabilidad Social Apuestas para el desarrollo regional.

Congreso Internacional de Responsabilidad Social: apuestas para el desarrollo regional [Edición 1 / Nov. 6 - 7: 2019 Bogotá D.C.]El Congreso Internacional de Responsabilidad Social “Apuestas para el Desarrollo Regional”, se llevó a cabo los días 6 y 7 de noviembre de 2019 en la ciudad de Bogotá D.C. como un evento académico e investigativo liderado por la Corporación Universitaria Minuto de Dios -UNIMINUTO – Rectoría Cundinamarca cuya pretensión fue el fomento de nuevos paradigmas, la divulgación de conocimiento renovado en torno a la Responsabilidad Social; finalidad adoptada institucionalmente como postura ética y política que impacta la docencia, la investigación y la proyección social, y cuyo propósito central es la promoción de una “sensibilización consciente y crítica ante las situaciones problemáticas, tanto de las comunidades como del país, al igual que la adquisición de unas competencias orientadas a la promoción y al compromiso con el desarrollo humano y social integral”. (UNIMINUTO, 2014). Dicha postura, de conciencia crítica y sensibilización social, sumada a la experiencia adquirida mediante el trabajo articulado con otras instituciones de índole académico y de forma directa con las comunidades, permitió establecer como objetivo central del evento la reflexión de los diferentes grupos de interés, la gestión de sus impactos como elementos puntuales que contribuyeron en la audiencia a la toma de conciencia frente al papel que se debe asumir a favor de la responsabilidad social como aporte seguro al desarrollo regional y a su vez al fortalecimiento de los Objetivos de Desarrollo Sostenible

Congreso Internacional de Responsabilidad Social Apuestas para el desarrollo regional.

Congreso Internacional de Responsabilidad Social: apuestas para el desarrollo regional [Edición 1 / Nov. 6 - 7: 2019 Bogotá D.C.]El Congreso Internacional de Responsabilidad Social “Apuestas para el Desarrollo Regional”, se llevó a cabo los días 6 y 7 de noviembre de 2019 en la ciudad de Bogotá D.C. como un evento académico e investigativo liderado por la Corporación Universitaria Minuto de Dios -UNIMINUTO – Rectoría Cundinamarca cuya pretensión fue el fomento de nuevos paradigmas, la divulgación de conocimiento renovado en torno a la Responsabilidad Social; finalidad adoptada institucionalmente como postura ética y política que impacta la docencia, la investigación y la proyección social, y cuyo propósito central es la promoción de una “sensibilización consciente y crítica ante las situaciones problemáticas, tanto de las comunidades como del país, al igual que la adquisición de unas competencias orientadas a la promoción y al compromiso con el desarrollo humano y social integral”. (UNIMINUTO, 2014). Dicha postura, de conciencia crítica y sensibilización social, sumada a la experiencia adquirida mediante el trabajo articulado con otras instituciones de índole académico y de forma directa con las comunidades, permitió establecer como objetivo central del evento la reflexión de los diferentes grupos de interés, la gestión de sus impactos como elementos puntuales que contribuyeron en la audiencia a la toma de conciencia frente al papel que se debe asumir a favor de la responsabilidad social como aporte seguro al desarrollo regional y a su vez al fortalecimiento de los Objetivos de Desarrollo Sostenible

Adolescent transport and unintentional injuries: a systematic analysis using the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background Globally, transport and unintentional injuries persist as leading preventable causes of mortality and morbidity for adolescents. We sought to report comprehensive trends in injury-related mortality and morbidity for adolescents aged 10-24 years during the past three decades. Methods Using the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factors 2019 Study, we analysed mortality and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) attributed to transport and unintentional injuries for adolescents in 204 countries. Burden is reported in absolute numbers and age-standardised rates per 100 000 population by sex, age group (10-14, 15-19, and 20-24 years), and sociodemographic index (SDI) with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We report percentage changes in deaths and DALYs between 1990 and 2019. Findings In 2019, 369 061 deaths (of which 214337 [58%] were transport related) and 31.1 million DALYs (of which 16.2 million [52%] were transport related) among adolescents aged 10-24 years were caused by transport and unintentional injuries combined. If compared with other causes, transport and unintentional injuries combined accounted for 25% of deaths and 14% of DALYs in 2019, and showed little improvement from 1990 when such injuries accounted for 26% of adolescent deaths and 17% of adolescent DALYs. Throughout adolescence, transport and unintentional injury fatality rates increased by age group. The unintentional injury burden was higher among males than females for all injury types, except for injuries related to fire, heat, and hot substances, or to adverse effects of medical treatment. From 1990 to 2019, global mortality rates declined by 34.4% (from 17.5 to 11.5 per 100 000) for transport injuries, and by 47.7% (from 15.9 to 8.3 per 100000) for unintentional injuries. However, in low-SDI nations the absolute number of deaths increased (by 80.5% to 42 774 for transport injuries and by 39.4% to 31 961 for unintentional injuries). In the high-SDI quintile in 2010-19, the rate per 100 000 of transport injury DALYs was reduced by 16.7%, from 838 in 2010 to 699 in 2019. This was a substantially slower pace of reduction compared with the 48.5% reduction between 1990 and 2010, from 1626 per 100 000 in 1990 to 838 per 100 000 in 2010. Between 2010 and 2019, the rate of unintentional injury DALYs per 100 000 also remained largely unchanged in high-SDI countries (555 in 2010 vs 554 in 2019; 0.2% reduction). The number and rate of adolescent deaths and DALYs owing to environmental heat and cold exposure increased for the high-SDI quintile during 2010-19. Interpretation As other causes of mortality are addressed, inadequate progress in reducing transport and unintentional injury mortality as a proportion of adolescent deaths becomes apparent. The relative shift in the burden of injury from high-SDI countries to low and low-middle-SDI countries necessitates focused action, including global donor, government, and industry investment in injury prevention. The persisting burden of DALYs related to transport and unintentional injuries indicates a need to prioritise innovative measures for the primary prevention of adolescent injury

SARS-CoV-2 vaccination modelling for safe surgery to save lives: data from an international prospective cohort study

Background Preoperative SARS-CoV-2 vaccination could support safer elective surgery. Vaccine numbers are limited so this study aimed to inform their prioritization by modelling. Methods The primary outcome was the number needed to vaccinate (NNV) to prevent one COVID-19-related death in 1 year. NNVs were based on postoperative SARS-CoV-2 rates and mortality in an international cohort study (surgical patients), and community SARS-CoV-2 incidence and case fatality data (general population). NNV estimates were stratified by age (18-49, 50-69, 70 or more years) and type of surgery. Best- and worst-case scenarios were used to describe uncertainty. Results NNVs were more favourable in surgical patients than the general population. The most favourable NNVs were in patients aged 70 years or more needing cancer surgery (351; best case 196, worst case 816) or non-cancer surgery (733; best case 407, worst case 1664). Both exceeded the NNV in the general population (1840; best case 1196, worst case 3066). NNVs for surgical patients remained favourable at a range of SARS-CoV-2 incidence rates in sensitivity analysis modelling. Globally, prioritizing preoperative vaccination of patients needing elective surgery ahead of the general population could prevent an additional 58 687 (best case 115 007, worst case 20 177) COVID-19-related deaths in 1 year. Conclusion As global roll out of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination proceeds, patients needing elective surgery should be prioritized ahead of the general population.The aim of this study was to inform vaccination prioritization by modelling the impact of vaccination on elective inpatient surgery. The study found that patients aged at least 70 years needing elective surgery should be prioritized alongside other high-risk groups during early vaccination programmes. Once vaccines are rolled out to younger populations, prioritizing surgical patients is advantageous

Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022–2050: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BackgroundFuture trends in disease burden and drivers of health are of great interest to policy makers and the public at large. This information can be used for policy and long-term health investment, planning, and prioritisation. We have expanded and improved upon previous forecasts produced as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) and provide a reference forecast (the most likely future), and alternative scenarios assessing disease burden trajectories if selected sets of risk factors were eliminated from current levels by 2050.MethodsUsing forecasts of major drivers of health such as the Socio-demographic Index (SDI; a composite measure of lag-distributed income per capita, mean years of education, and total fertility under 25 years of age) and the full set of risk factor exposures captured by GBD, we provide cause-specific forecasts of mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by age and sex from 2022 to 2050 for 204 countries and territories, 21 GBD regions, seven super-regions, and the world. All analyses were done at the cause-specific level so that only risk factors deemed causal by the GBD comparative risk assessment influenced future trajectories of mortality for each disease. Cause-specific mortality was modelled using mixed-effects models with SDI and time as the main covariates, and the combined impact of causal risk factors as an offset in the model. At the all-cause mortality level, we captured unexplained variation by modelling residuals with an autoregressive integrated moving average model with drift attenuation. These all-cause forecasts constrained the cause-specific forecasts at successively deeper levels of the GBD cause hierarchy using cascading mortality models, thus ensuring a robust estimate of cause-specific mortality. For non-fatal measures (eg, low back pain), incidence and prevalence were forecasted from mixed-effects models with SDI as the main covariate, and YLDs were computed from the resulting prevalence forecasts and average disability weights from GBD. Alternative future scenarios were constructed by replacing appropriate reference trajectories for risk factors with hypothetical trajectories of gradual elimination of risk factor exposure from current levels to 2050. The scenarios were constructed from various sets of risk factors: environmental risks (Safer Environment scenario), risks associated with communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (CMNNs; Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination scenario), risks associated with major non-communicable diseases (NCDs; Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario), and the combined effects of these three scenarios. Using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways climate scenarios SSP2-4.5 as reference and SSP1-1.9 as an optimistic alternative in the Safer Environment scenario, we accounted for climate change impact on health by using the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change temperature forecasts and published trajectories of ambient air pollution for the same two scenarios. Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy were computed using standard methods. The forecasting framework includes computing the age-sex-specific future population for each location and separately for each scenario. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for each individual future estimate were derived from the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of distributions generated from propagating 500 draws through the multistage computational pipeline.FindingsIn the reference scenario forecast, global and super-regional life expectancy increased from 2022 to 2050, but improvement was at a slower pace than in the three decades preceding the COVID-19 pandemic (beginning in 2020). Gains in future life expectancy were forecasted to be greatest in super-regions with comparatively low life expectancies (such as sub-Saharan Africa) compared with super-regions with higher life expectancies (such as the high-income super-region), leading to a trend towards convergence in life expectancy across locations between now and 2050. At the super-region level, forecasted healthy life expectancy patterns were similar to those of life expectancies. Forecasts for the reference scenario found that health will improve in the coming decades, with all-cause age-standardised DALY rates decreasing in every GBD super-region. The total DALY burden measured in counts, however, will increase in every super-region, largely a function of population ageing and growth. We also forecasted that both DALY counts and age-standardised DALY rates will continue to shift from CMNNs to NCDs, with the most pronounced shifts occurring in sub-Saharan Africa (60·1% [95% UI 56·8–63·1] of DALYs were from CMNNs in 2022 compared with 35·8% [31·0–45·0] in 2050) and south Asia (31·7% [29·2–34·1] to 15·5% [13·7–17·5]). This shift is reflected in the leading global causes of DALYs, with the top four causes in 2050 being ischaemic heart disease, stroke, diabetes, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, compared with 2022, with ischaemic heart disease, neonatal disorders, stroke, and lower respiratory infections at the top. The global proportion of DALYs due to YLDs likewise increased from 33·8% (27·4–40·3) to 41·1% (33·9–48·1) from 2022 to 2050, demonstrating an important shift in overall disease burden towards morbidity and away from premature death. The largest shift of this kind was forecasted for sub-Saharan Africa, from 20·1% (15·6–25·3) of DALYs due to YLDs in 2022 to 35·6% (26·5–43·0) in 2050. In the assessment of alternative future scenarios, the combined effects of the scenarios (Safer Environment, Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination, and Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenarios) demonstrated an important decrease in the global burden of DALYs in 2050 of 15·4% (13·5–17·5) compared with the reference scenario, with decreases across super-regions ranging from 10·4% (9·7–11·3) in the high-income super-region to 23·9% (20·7–27·3) in north Africa and the Middle East. The Safer Environment scenario had its largest decrease in sub-Saharan Africa (5·2% [3·5–6·8]), the Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario in north Africa and the Middle East (23·2% [20·2–26·5]), and the Improved Nutrition and Vaccination scenario in sub-Saharan Africa (2·0% [–0·6 to 3·6]).InterpretationGlobally, life expectancy and age-standardised disease burden were forecasted to improve between 2022 and 2050, with the majority of the burden continuing to shift from CMNNs to NCDs. That said, continued progress on reducing the CMNN disease burden will be dependent on maintaining investment in and policy emphasis on CMNN disease prevention and treatment. Mostly due to growth and ageing of populations, the number of deaths and DALYs due to all causes combined will generally increase. By constructing alternative future scenarios wherein certain risk exposures are eliminated by 2050, we have shown that opportunities exist to substantially improve health outcomes in the future through concerted efforts to prevent exposure to well established risk factors and to expand access to key health interventions.FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation.</p