Forecasting indexes volatilities by using machine learning techniques, econometric and randomized models: A study on the forecasting capacity prediction of each model on the first days of the Ukraine’s Conflict

Dissertation presented as the partial requirement for obtaining a Master's degree in Statistics and Information Management, specialization in Risk Analysis and ManagementPredicting the volatility of returns for a stock index is an attractive and defying task in the field of Machine Learning (ML). The comparison of Machine Learning models, and their resulting predictions, with several Time Series algorithms and Monte Carlo simulations, could provide valuable insight regarding the advantage of using more recent Machine Learning methods to predict stock index volatility. In this article, a study is presented on the various models’ ability to predict for five worldwide Indexes, the returns and therefore, their volatilities, at the beginning of the Ukraine’s conflict. By applying and comparing the performance of different algorithms, this study aims to investigate if recent ML models could lead to enhanced predictive capabilities, when in comparison to more established and frequently used statical methods and/or random models. Therefore, as mentioned above, this study will be based on five indexes, namely the Euronext 100 (Europe), the National Stock Exchange India (India), the São Paulo Stock Exchange (South America), the NASDAQ (North America) and the Hang Seng Index (Hong Kong), and the data source will be the financial information, explained in detail in section 3, from January 1st 2015 until the March 4th 2022. The study and forecasting of volatility are of high value, since Pension/Investment funds, as well as other stakeholders in Financial Markets, recognize that the risk should be minimized to the maximum level, and be within the standards that Pension/Fund members agreed upon. With this being said, the main focus of this project will not be to try to obtain the most accurate model to predict the daily volatility, but to compare how different models said volatility and if their predictions fall very far from one another. The main finding of the study was that multivariable models had performed better than univariable and randomized models. Also, models that include data with different levels of frequency (daily, monthly, quarterly) have a better forecasting capacity

Etnografías sin final feliz. Sobre las condiciones de posibilidad del trabajo de campo urbano en contextos globalizados

What is the epistemological justification for current ethnography, at a time when the flux of persons, knowledge and meanings erodes any closed, self-contained sense of culture? What will be the theoretical role played by key concepts such as «culture», «community» and «place,» until now used to lay the groundwork for our routines of research? On the basis of this deep transformation underway of the contextual conditions for ethnography, this paper explores some of them, focusing on three problems: (1) holism, (2) the nature of contemporary chronotopy and (3) the incommensurability of knowledge. Far from an abandonment of ethnography as a method, the author argues for the heuristic potential of ethnographic interpretation for reconstructing the unexpected connections among distant cultural realities in a temporally and spatially single world.¿Qué justificación epistemológica cabe dar hoy a la actividad etnográfica en contextos donde el flujo de personas, saberes y significados erosiona todo sentido cerrado, autocontenido, de cultura? ¿Qué lugar seguir concediendo a los conceptos clave que apuntalaban nuestras rutinas de investigación, a palabras tales como «lugar», «comunidad» o «cultura »? Partiendo de la premisa de una transformación radical en las condiciones contextúales en que hemos de desplegar nuestra práctica profesional, el presente artículo trata de caracterizarlas, centrándose en (1) el problema del holismo, (2) la naturaleza de la cronotopía contemporánea y (3) la inconmensurabilidad de saberes. Lejos de un abandono de la etnografía como método, este análisis trata de argumentar el potencial heurístico de la interpretación etnográfica para reconstruir las conexiones inesperadas entre realidades culturales distantes en un mundo unificado espacial y temporalmente

Símbolos en la ciudad: la caravana de los animales

The festivity of San Antón, patron saint of the animals, is celehrated in the neighbourhood of Hortaleza (Madrid) with a singular pilgrimage of pets around the parish. Cats, dogs and other domestic animals are brought to the streets in a kindly para de, to be blessed by the parish priest. This celebration was revitalized at the beggining of the SO's after decades of abandonment. We can find in it both a modern recreatíon of an ancient imageiy and, conversely, the persistence of the evocative power of symbolic forms and traditional models of action and representation. In modero urban life, animals still are «good to think».San Antón, patrón de los animales, es celebrado en el barrio de Hortaleza de Madrid con una peculiar romería. Perros, gatos, y otros animales domésticos dan tres vueltas alrededor de la antigua parroquia del Santo en amable cabalgata, recibiendo la bendición del cura «para que los libre de todo mal». La celebración, revitalizada a comienzos de los ochenta tras décadas de abandono, implica desde luego una recreación moderna de la imaginería costumbrista, pero también la vigencia y el poder evocativo de formas simbólicas y modelos tradicionales de acción y representación. En la vida de la ciudad moderna, los animales siguen siendo «buenos para pensar »

Los métodos de liquidación en las cooperativas hortofrutícolas

The particular nature of Spanish agrarian cooperatives makes it very difficult to carry out an exhaustive analysis of their internal management processes. Nevertheless, the great increase in competition in the European agrarian sector in recent years, mainly from Mediterranean countries, means that these organizations must improve their management information systems. The valuation of products provided by members for processing and marketing by the cooperative is one of the key issues in cooperative management theory. The aim of this study is to review the pricing and payment methods used by Spanish fruit and vegetable cooperatives and to identify the specific characteristics of each one in order to analyze and compare them.Costing, pricing and payment methods, management of cooperatives, profitability, efficiency, fruit and vegetable cooperatives.

Escuchar a los objetos

This experimental section includes some parts of the performative event “The materiality of transformations: Listening to objects”, which closed the 14th SIEF conference held in Santiago de Compostela in 2019. Barbara Kirshenblatt-Gimblett, Regina Bendix, Dorothy Noyes, Sharon Roseman and Francisco Cruces conversed on stage about the cultural meanings of a selection of personal objects. By unveiling the stories contained in mezuzahs, hair, a serving platter and a shawl, they put the methodological power of the object/story couplet to the test. The benefits of articulating narrativity with materiality; the silent power of things in everyday life; the embedded character of storytelling, and some of its affective, moral and celebratory virtues were highlighted. The final event can be seen at <https://vimeo.com/362078953> from minute 00:52:50 to 01:31:00.Esta sección experimental incluye algunas partes del evento performativo “La materialidad de las transformaciones: escuchar a los objetos”, que clausuró el XIV congreso de SIEF celebrado en Santiago de Compostela en 2019. Barbara Kirshenblatt-Gimblett, Regina Bendix, Dorothy Noyes, Sharon Roseman y Francisco Cruces conversaron sobre los significados culturales de una selección de objetos personales. Al desvelar las historias contenidas en mezuzahs, cabello, una fuente o un chal, se puso a prueba el poder metodológico del par objeto / historia, los beneficios de articular la narratividad con la materialidad y el silencioso poder de las cosas en la vida cotidiana. Se destacó el carácter incorporado de la narración y algunas de sus virtudes afectivas, morales y celebratorias. Este evento performativo se puede ver en <https://vimeo.com/362078953> from minute 00:52:50 to 01:31:00

What Do You Want to Eat? Influence of Menu Description and Design on Consumer's Mind: An fMRI Study

The main objective of this research was to analyse the active regions when processing dishes with a pleasant (vs. unpleasant) design and the effect of the previously read rational (vs. emotional) description when visualising the dish. The functional magnetic resonance image technique was used for the study. The results showed that participants who visualised pleasant vs. unpleasant dishes became active in several domains (e.g., attention, cognition and reward). On the other side, visualisation of unpleasant dishes activated stronger regions linked to inhibition, rejection, and related ambiguity. We found that subjects who read rational descriptions when visualising pleasant dishes activated regions related to congruence integration, while subjects who visualised emotional descriptions showed an increased neuronal response to pleasant dishes in the regions related to memory, emotion and congruence.This study was supported by the Andalusian R+D+I Research Programme (Grant No: B-SEJ209-UGR18, "Research in NeuroSOCOM"project). Project Programme of the University of Cadiz (Grant No: PR2017-039) and the Institute of Research and Development Social and Sustainability (INDESS)

Mi trabajo es mi vida. La incrustación de los mundos de la vida y del trabajo en empresas españolas

En base a 20 etnografías realizadas en empresas españolas, este texto analiza formas emergentes de imbricación entre los mundos del trabajo y la vida. Si a partir de la Revolución Industrial se da una tendencia a la autonomía del proceso de trabajo con respecto a los entornos vitales de los trabajadores, actualmente se observa una tendencia inversa en ciertas empresas. Esta rearticulación se produce en varios sentidos: a) en el desvanecimiento de la frontera que separa el trabajo de la vida cotidiana; b) en la reinserción de dimensiones afectivas en los procesos laborales; c) en el fomento de la reciprocidad y la sociabilidad en el ámbito económico; y d) en la producción de experiencias signifi cativas en el trabajo. ¿Nos hallamos ante una reconciliación emancipadora de la vida y el trabajo? O, por el contrario, ¿se trata de una colonización del mundo de la vida por el mundo productivo? Proponemos explorar una tercera vía de análisis, la de la modernidad reflexiva.This paper analyses emerging forms in which life and work are interwoven, on 20 ethnographic studies conducted in enterprises in Spain. Whereas after the Industrial Revolution work processes tended to be autonomous from the living environments of production agents, in recent decades a trend in the opposite direction has been observed in some companies. This re-articulation takes place at several levels: a) through the blurring of the boundaries that separate work and everyday life, b) through the reintegration of affective dimensions into work processes, c) in promoting reciprocity and sociability in the economic sphere and d) in the production of meaningful experiences at work. Are we witnessing an emancipating balance between life and work? Or, on the contrary, is private life being colonized by the sphere of production? In this paper we seek to explore a third form of analysis, that of refl exive modernit

Optimization of Alpha-Beta Log-Det Divergences and their Application in the Spatial Filtering of Two Class Motor Imagery Movements

The Alpha-Beta Log-Det divergences for positive definite matrices are flexible divergences that are parameterized by two real constants and are able to specialize several relevant classical cases like the squared Riemannian metric, the Steins loss, the S-divergence, etc. A novel classification criterion based on these divergences is optimized to address the problem of classification of the motor imagery movements. This research paper is divided into three main sections in order to address the above mentioned problem: (1) Firstly, it is proven that a suitable scaling of the class conditional covariance matrices can be used to link the Common Spatial Pattern (CSP) solution with a predefined number of spatial filters for each class and its representation as a divergence optimization problem by making their different filter selection policies compatible; (2) A closed form formula for the gradient of the Alpha-Beta Log-Det divergences is derived that allows to perform optimization as well as easily use it in many practical applications; (3) Finally, in similarity with the work of Samek et al. 2014, which proposed the robust spatial filtering of the motor imagery movements based on the beta-divergence, the optimization of the Alpha-Beta Log-Det divergences is applied to this problem. The resulting subspace algorithm provides a unified framework for testing the performance and robustness of the several divergences in different scenarios.Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad TEC2014-53103-

Towards a new generation of dynamic indices for the assessment of drug-induced proarrhythmic risk

The detection of proarrhythmic side effects in many marketed drugs has prompted the search for complementary non-invasive markers of cardiotoxicity risk. Novel indices based on the study of cardiac vector dynamics have now emerged. Herein, we use quaternion methods to study alterations in the angular velocity during ventricular repolarization. The assessment was conducted in patients with Torsade de Pointes episodes when undergoing a Sotalol treatment. The algorithm includes a Principal Component Analysis to homogenize the information from three databases and, at the same time, reduce the space to three dimensions. Significant differences were found (p < 5E-4) in the angular velocity of the second half of repolarization loop (T-wave). The ratio between the maximums of the angular velocity in both T-wave halves showed a trend to 1 in the proximity of an arrhythmic event and reached sensitivity/specificity pair of 97/100 (AUC 0.99) in the comparison of healthy population with at-risk patients. The high performance of the method exceeded the expectations of the standard measurement and it becomes a promising outcome for the development of safe drug therapies.Fil: Cruces, Pablo Daniel. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ingeniería. Instituto de Ingeniería Biomédica; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Saavedra 15. Instituto Argentino de Matemática Alberto Calderón; ArgentinaFil: Alvarado Rodríguez, Francisco Javier. Universidad Autónoma de Guadalajara; MéxicoFil: Romo Vázquez, Rebeca. Universidad de Guadalajara; MéxicoFil: Arini, Pedro David. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ingeniería. Instituto de Ingeniería Biomédica; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Saavedra 15. Instituto Argentino de Matemática Alberto Calderón; ArgentinaXIX Reunión de trabajo en procesamiento de la información y controlSan JuanArgentinaUniversidad Nacional de San Juan. Instituto de Automátic