The future of the biodiversity of the Gran Caldera Scientific Reserve: Translating science into policy to develop an effective management plan

White paper prepared for the Workshop on ‘The future of the biodiversity of the Gran Caldera Scientific Reserve', celebrated in Malabo, Equatorial Guinea, in June 201

What factors influence the rediscovery of lost tetrapod species?

We created a database of lost and rediscovered tetrapod species, identified patterns in their distribution and factors influencing rediscovery. Tetrapod species are being lost at a faster rate than they are being rediscovered, due to slowing rates of rediscovery for amphibians, birds and mammals, and rapid rates of loss for reptiles. Finding lost species and preventing future losses should therefore be a conservation priority. By comparing the taxonomic and spatial distribution of lost and rediscovered tetrapod species, we have identified regions and taxa with many lost species in comparison to those that have been rediscovered—our results may help to prioritise search effort to find them. By identifying factors that influence rediscovery, we have improved our ability to broadly distinguish the types of species that are likely to be found from those that are not (because they are likely to be extinct). Some lost species, particularly those that are small and perceived to be uncharismatic, may have been neglected in terms of conservation effort, and other lost species may be hard to find due to their intrinsic characteristics and the characteristics of the environments they occupy (e.g. nocturnal species, fossorial species and species occupying habitats that are more difficult to survey such as wetlands). These lost species may genuinely await rediscovery. However, other lost species that possess characteristics associated with rediscovery (e.g. large species) and that are also associated with factors that negatively influence rediscovery (e.g. those occupying small islands) are more likely to be extinct. Our results may foster pragmatic search protocols that prioritise lost species likely to still exist

To conserve African tropical forests, invest in the protection of its most endangered group of monkeys, red colobus

Forest loss and overhunting are eroding African tropical biodiversity and threatening local human food security, livelihoods, and health. Emblematic of this ecological crisis is Africa's most endangered group of monkeys, the red colobus (genus Piliocolobus). All 17 species, found in forests from Senegal in the west to the Zanzibar archipelago in the east, are threatened with extinction. Red colobus are among the most vulnerable mammals to gun hunting, typically disappearing from heavily hunted forests before most other large-bodied animals. Despite their conservation status, they are rarely a focus of conservation attention and continue to be understudied. However, red colobus can act as critical barometers of forest health and serve as flagships for catalyzing broader African tropical forest conservation efforts. We offer a plan for conservation of red colobus and their habitats and discuss conservation and policy implications.Additional authors: Deo Kujirakwinja, Barney Long, W. Scott McGraw, Russell A. Mittermeier, Thomas T. Struhsake

Drivers of habitat availability for terrestrial mammals: Unravelling the role of livestock, land conversion and intrinsic traits in the past 50 years

The global decline of terrestrial species is largely due to the degradation, loss and fragmentation of their habitats. The conversion of natural ecosystems for cropland, rangeland, forest products and human infrastructure are the primary causes of habitat deterioration. Due to the paucity of data on the past distribution of species and the scarcity of fine-scale habitat conversion maps, however, accurate assessment of the recent effects of habitat degradation, loss and fragmentation on the range of mammals has been near impossible. We aim to assess the proportions of available habitat within the lost and retained parts of mammals' distribution ranges, and to identify the drivers of habitat availability. We produced distribution maps for 475 terrestrial mammals for the range they occupied 50 years ago and compared them to current range maps. We then calculated the differences in the percentage of 'area of habitat' (habitat available to a species within its range) between the lost and retained range areas. Finally, we ran generalized linear mixed models to identify which variables were more influential in determining habitat availability in the lost and retained parts of the distribution ranges. We found that 59% of species had a lower proportion of available habitat in the lost range compared to the retained range, thus hypothesizing that habitat loss could have contributed to range declines. The most important factors negatively affecting habitat availability were the conversion of land to rangeland and high density of livestock. Significant intrinsic traits were those related to reproductive timing and output, habitat breadth and medium body size. Our findings emphasize the importance of implementing conservation strategies to mitigate the impacts caused by human activities on the habitats of mammals, and offer evidence indicating which species have the potential to reoccupy portions of their former range if other threats cease to occur.This study investigates the impact of habitat degradation on terrestrial mammal species. By comparing historic and current distribution maps for 475 species, we found that 59% of them have less available habitat in their lost ranges, suggesting habitat loss contributed to range declines. Factors like land conversion to rangeland and high livestock density negatively affected habitat availability. Intrinsic traits such as reproductive timing, habitat breadth and medium body size also played a role. The study underscores the need for conservation efforts to mitigate human-induced habitat threats and identifies species that could potentially reclaim lost range if threats are addressed.imag

A population-based study of tumor gene expression and risk of breast cancer death among lymph node-negative patients

INTRODUCTION: The Oncotype DX assay was recently reported to predict risk for distant recurrence among a clinical trial population of tamoxifen-treated patients with lymph node-negative, estrogen receptor (ER)-positive breast cancer. To confirm and extend these findings, we evaluated the performance of this 21-gene assay among node-negative patients from a community hospital setting. METHODS: A case-control study was conducted among 4,964 Kaiser Permanente patients diagnosed with node-negative invasive breast cancer from 1985 to 1994 and not treated with adjuvant chemotherapy. Cases (n = 220) were patients who died from breast cancer. Controls (n = 570) were breast cancer patients who were individually matched to cases with respect to age, race, adjuvant tamoxifen, medical facility and diagnosis year, and were alive at the date of death of their matched case. Using an RT-PCR assay, archived tumor tissues were analyzed for expression levels of 16 cancer-related and five reference genes, and a summary risk score (the Recurrence Score) was calculated for each patient. Conditional logistic regression methods were used to estimate the association between risk of breast cancer death and Recurrence Score. RESULTS: After adjusting for tumor size and grade, the Recurrence Score was associated with risk of breast cancer death in ER-positive, tamoxifen-treated and -untreated patients (P = 0.003 and P = 0.03, respectively). At 10 years, the risks for breast cancer death in ER-positive, tamoxifen-treated patients were 2.8% (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.7–3.9%), 10.7% (95% CI 6.3–14.9%), and 15.5% (95% CI 7.6–22.8%) for those in the low, intermediate and high risk Recurrence Score groups, respectively. They were 6.2% (95% CI 4.5–7.9%), 17.8% (95% CI 11.8–23.3%), and 19.9% (95% CI 14.2–25.2%) for ER-positive patients not treated with tamoxifen. In both the tamoxifen-treated and -untreated groups, approximately 50% of patients had low risk Recurrence Score values. CONCLUSION: In this large, population-based study of lymph node-negative patients not treated with chemotherapy, the Recurrence Score was strongly associated with risk of breast cancer death among ER-positive, tamoxifen-treated and -untreated patients

Anastrozole versus tamoxifen for the prevention of locoregional and contralateral breast cancer in postmenopausal women with locally excised ductal carcinoma in situ (IBIS-II DCIS): a double-blind, randomised controlled trial

Background Third-generation aromatase inhibitors are more effective than tamoxifen for preventing recurrence in postmenopausal women with hormone-receptor-positive invasive breast cancer. However, it is not known whether anastrozole is more effective than tamoxifen for women with hormone-receptor-positive ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS). Here, we compare the efficacy of anastrozole with that of tamoxifen in postmenopausal women with hormone-receptor-positive DCIS. Methods In a double-blind, multicentre, randomised placebo-controlled trial, we recruited women who had been diagnosed with locally excised, hormone-receptor-positive DCIS. Eligible women were randomly assigned in a 1:1 ratio by central computer allocation to receive 1 mg oral anastrozole or 20 mg oral tamoxifen every day for 5 years. Randomisation was stratified by major centre or hub and was done in blocks (six, eight, or ten). All trial personnel, participants, and clinicians were masked to treatment allocation and only the trial statistician had access to treatment allocation. The primary endpoint was all recurrence, including recurrent DCIS and new contralateral tumours. All analyses were done on a modified intention-to-treat basis (in all women who were randomised and did not revoke consent for their data to be included) and proportional hazard models were used to compute hazard ratios and corresponding confidence intervals. This trial is registered at the ISRCTN registry, number ISRCTN37546358. Results Between March 3, 2003, and Feb 8, 2012, we enrolled 2980 postmenopausal women from 236 centres in 14 countries and randomly assigned them to receive anastrozole (1449 analysed) or tamoxifen (1489 analysed). Median follow-up was 7·2 years (IQR 5·6–8·9), and 144 breast cancer recurrences were recorded. We noted no statistically significant difference in overall recurrence (67 recurrences for anastrozole vs 77 for tamoxifen; HR 0·89 [95% CI 0·64–1·23]). The non-inferiority of anastrozole was established (upper 95% CI <1·25), but its superiority to tamoxifen was not (p=0·49). A total of 69 deaths were recorded (33 for anastrozole vs 36 for tamoxifen; HR 0·93 [95% CI 0·58–1·50], p=0·78), and no specific cause was more common in one group than the other. The number of women reporting any adverse event was similar between anastrozole (1323 women, 91%) and tamoxifen (1379 women, 93%); the side-effect profiles of the two drugs differed, with more fractures, musculoskeletal events, hypercholesterolaemia, and strokes with anastrozole and more muscle spasm, gynaecological cancers and symptoms, vasomotor symptoms, and deep vein thromboses with tamoxifen. Conclusions No clear efficacy differences were seen between the two treatments. Anastrozole offers another treatment option for postmenopausal women with hormone-receptor-positive DCIS, which may be be more appropriate for some women with contraindications for tamoxifen. Longer follow-up will be necessary to fully evaluate treatment differences

Changes in symptomatology, reinfection, and transmissibility associated with the SARS-CoV-2 variant B.1.1.7: an ecological study

Background The SARS-CoV-2 variant B.1.1.7 was first identified in December, 2020, in England. We aimed to investigate whether increases in the proportion of infections with this variant are associated with differences in symptoms or disease course, reinfection rates, or transmissibility. Methods We did an ecological study to examine the association between the regional proportion of infections with the SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 variant and reported symptoms, disease course, rates of reinfection, and transmissibility. Data on types and duration of symptoms were obtained from longitudinal reports from users of the COVID Symptom Study app who reported a positive test for COVID-19 between Sept 28 and Dec 27, 2020 (during which the prevalence of B.1.1.7 increased most notably in parts of the UK). From this dataset, we also estimated the frequency of possible reinfection, defined as the presence of two reported positive tests separated by more than 90 days with a period of reporting no symptoms for more than 7 days before the second positive test. The proportion of SARS-CoV-2 infections with the B.1.1.7 variant across the UK was estimated with use of genomic data from the COVID-19 Genomics UK Consortium and data from Public Health England on spike-gene target failure (a non-specific indicator of the B.1.1.7 variant) in community cases in England. We used linear regression to examine the association between reported symptoms and proportion of B.1.1.7. We assessed the Spearman correlation between the proportion of B.1.1.7 cases and number of reinfections over time, and between the number of positive tests and reinfections. We estimated incidence for B.1.1.7 and previous variants, and compared the effective reproduction number, Rt, for the two incidence estimates. Findings From Sept 28 to Dec 27, 2020, positive COVID-19 tests were reported by 36 920 COVID Symptom Study app users whose region was known and who reported as healthy on app sign-up. We found no changes in reported symptoms or disease duration associated with B.1.1.7. For the same period, possible reinfections were identified in 249 (0·7% [95% CI 0·6–0·8]) of 36 509 app users who reported a positive swab test before Oct 1, 2020, but there was no evidence that the frequency of reinfections was higher for the B.1.1.7 variant than for pre-existing variants. Reinfection occurrences were more positively correlated with the overall regional rise in cases (Spearman correlation 0·56–0·69 for South East, London, and East of England) than with the regional increase in the proportion of infections with the B.1.1.7 variant (Spearman correlation 0·38–0·56 in the same regions), suggesting B.1.1.7 does not substantially alter the risk of reinfection. We found a multiplicative increase in the Rt of B.1.1.7 by a factor of 1·35 (95% CI 1·02–1·69) relative to pre-existing variants. However, Rt fell below 1 during regional and national lockdowns, even in regions with high proportions of infections with the B.1.1.7 variant. Interpretation The lack of change in symptoms identified in this study indicates that existing testing and surveillance infrastructure do not need to change specifically for the B.1.1.7 variant. In addition, given that there was no apparent increase in the reinfection rate, vaccines are likely to remain effective against the B.1.1.7 variant. Funding Zoe Global, Department of Health (UK), Wellcome Trust, Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (UK), National Institute for Health Research (UK), Medical Research Council (UK), Alzheimer's Society

Avian diversity in Moka, Bioko Island, Equatorial Guinea

Bioko Island, Equatorial Guinea is a biodiversity hotspot facing encroaching development, logging, and hunting. Long-term monitoring of the species composition and community structure of birds on Bioko allows for a better understanding of the effects of seasonality, anthropogenic development, and climate change. The objective of this study was to evaluate the species composition, richness, and relative abundance of birds in Moka, an agricultural town with patches of secondary forest located on the edge of a protected area on Bioko. Here we report on mist netting conducted as part of student-led projects from 2008 to 2015. In total, 674 birds, representing 46 species, were caught over 76 days of sampling, including one restricted-range species and one species designated Near Threatened by the IUCN, the White-tailed Warbler Poliolais lopezi. Moka is an important area for conservation, ecotourism, and educational opportunities on Bioko; however, it is relatively understudied, with little long-term data published on the ecology of native species. These data help to create a baseline with which to make comparisons over time as land-use changes affect the habitat surrounding Moka, especially as the adjacent protected area is considered for international recognition and protection as a proposed biosphere reserve and UNESCO World Heritage Site. Diversité aviaire à Moka, Ile de Bioko, Guinée équatoriale L’île de Bioko, en Guinée équatoriale, est un haut lieu de biodiversité confronté au développement agricole, à l’exploitation forestière et à la chasse. Un suivi à long terme de la composition des espèces et de la structure de la communauté aviaire à Bioko permet une meilleure compréhension des effets de la saisonnalité, du développement anthropogénique et du changement climatique. L’objectif de cette étude était d’évaluer la composition et la richesse des espèces ainsi que l’abondance relative des oiseaux à Moka, une ville agricole comportant des zones de forêt secondaire fragmentées, situées en périphérie d’une zone protégée de Bioko. Nous présentons ici un rapport qui s’appuie sur des captures avec des filets japonais, réalisées par des étudiants entre 2008 et 2015. Au total, 674 oiseaux ont été capturés, soit 46 espèces, sur une durée d’échantillonnage d’environ 76 jours, et comprenant notamment une espèce à aire de répartition restreinte, l’Hirondelle brune Psalidoprocne fuliginosa, et une espèces désignée comme quasi-menacée sur la liste rouge de l’UICN, la Poliolaïs à queue blanche Poliolais lopezi. Moka est une zone importante pour la conservation, l’écotourisme et les opportunités éducatives à Bioko, cependant, elle reste très peu étudiée et dispose de très peu d’historique de données publiées sur l’écologie des espèces indigènes. Ces éléments permettent la création d’une base de référence avec laquelle il sera possible de réaliser des comparaisons dans le temps, étant donné que les changements d’affectation des terrains sont susceptibles d’impacter les habitats qui environnent Moka, et ce d’autant plus que la zone protégée adjacente est envisagée pour être reconnue et protégée à un niveau international en tant que réserve de biosphère et site de patrimoine mondial de l’UNESCO