A Recurrent Neural Network Survival Model: Predicting Web User Return Time

The size of a website's active user base directly affects its value. Thus, it is important to monitor and influence a user's likelihood to return to a site. Essential to this is predicting when a user will return. Current state of the art approaches to solve this problem come in two flavors: (1) Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) based solutions and (2) survival analysis methods. We observe that both techniques are severely limited when applied to this problem. Survival models can only incorporate aggregate representations of users instead of automatically learning a representation directly from a raw time series of user actions. RNNs can automatically learn features, but can not be directly trained with examples of non-returning users who have no target value for their return time. We develop a novel RNN survival model that removes the limitations of the state of the art methods. We demonstrate that this model can successfully be applied to return time prediction on a large e-commerce dataset with a superior ability to discriminate between returning and non-returning users than either method applied in isolation.Comment: Accepted into ECML PKDD 2018; 8 figures and 1 tabl

Branching dendrites with resonant membrane: a “sum-over-trips” approach

Dendrites form the major components of neurons. They are complex branching structures that receive and process thousands of synaptic inputs from other neurons. It is well known that dendritic morphology plays an important role in the function of dendrites. Another important contribution to the response characteristics of a single neuron comes from the intrinsic resonant properties of dendritic membrane. In this paper we combine the effects of dendritic branching and resonant membrane dynamics by generalising the “sum-over-trips” approach (Abbott et al. in Biol Cybernetics 66, 49–60 1991). To illustrate how this formalism can shed light on the role of architecture and resonances in determining neuronal output we consider dual recording and reconstruction data from a rat CA1 hippocampal pyramidal cell. Specifically we explore the way in which an Ih current contributes to a voltage overshoot at the soma

Point-of-care screening for a current Hepatitis C virus infection: influence on uptake of a concomitant offer of HIV screening

Eliminating hepatitis C as a public health threat requires an improved understanding of how to increase testing uptake. We piloted point-of-care testing (POCT) for a current HCV infection in an inner-city Emergency Department (ED) and assessed the influence on uptake of offering concomitant screening for HIV. Over four months, all adults attending ED with minor injuries were first invited to complete an anonymous questionnaire then invited to test in alternating cycles offering HCV POCT or HCV+HIV POCT. Viral RNA was detected in finger-prick blood by GeneXpert. 814/859 (94.8%) questionnaires were returned and 324/814 (39.8%) tests were accepted, comprising 211 HCV tests and 113 HCV+HIV tests. Offering concomitant HIV screening reduced uptake after adjusting for age and previous HCV testing (odds ratio 0.51; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.38–0.68; p < 0.001). HCV prevalence was 1/324 (0.31%; 95% CI 0.05–1.73); no participant tested positive for HIV. 167/297 (56.2%) POCT participants lived in the most deprived neighbourhoods in England. HCV RNA testing using finger-prick blood was technically feasible. Uptake was moderate and the offer of concomitant HIV screening showed a detrimental impact on acceptability in this low prevalence population. The findings should be confirmed in a variety of other community settings

Simonsenia aveniformis sp nov (Bacillariophyceae), molecular phylogeny and systematics of the genus, and a new type of canal raphe system

The genus Simonsenia is reviewed and S. aveniformis described as new for science by light and electron microscopy. The new species originated from estuarine environments in southern Iberia (Atlantic coast) and was isolated into culture. In LM, Simonsenia resembles Nitzschia, with bridges (fibulae) beneath the raphe, which is marginal. It is only electron microscope (EM) examination that reveals the true structure of the raphe system, which consists of a raphe canal raised on a keel (wing), supported by rib like braces (fenestral bars) and tube-like portulae; between the portulae the keel is perforated by open windows (fenestrae). Based on the presence of portulae and a fenestrated keel, Simonsenia has been proposed to be intermediate between Bacillariaceae and Surirellaceae. However, an rbcL phylogeny revealed that Simonsenia belongs firmly in the Bacillariaceae, with which it shares a similar chloroplast arrangement, rather than in the Surirellaceae. Lack of homology between the surirelloid and simonsenioid keels is reflected in subtle differences in the morphology and ontogeny of the portulae and fenestrae. The diversity of Simonsenia has probably been underestimated, particularly in the marine environment.Polish National Science Centre in Cracow within the Maestro program [N 2012/04/A/ST10/00544]; Sciences and Technologies Foundation-FCT (Portugal) [SFRH/BD/62405/2009]info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Epidemiological evidence of higher susceptibility to vCJD in the young

BACKGROUND: The strikingly young age of new variant Creutzfeldt-Jacob disease (vCJD) cases remains unexplained. Age dependent susceptibility to infection has been put forward, but differential dietary exposure to contaminated food products in the UK population according to age and sex during the bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) epidemic may provide a simpler explanation. METHODS: Using recently published estimates of dietary exposure in mathematical models of the epidemiology of the new variant Creutzfeldt Jacob disease (vCJD), we examine whether the age characteristics of vCJD cases may be reproduced. RESULTS: The susceptibility/exposure risk function has likely peaked in adolescents and was followed by a sharp decrease with age, evocative of the profile of exposure to bovine material consumption according to age. However, assuming that the risk of contamination was proportional to exposure, with no age dependent susceptibility, the model failed to reproduce the observed age characteristics of the vCJD cases: The predicted cumulated proportion of cases over 40 years was 48%, in strong disagreement with the observed 10%. Incorporating age dependent susceptibility led to a cumulated proportion of cases over 40 years old of 12%. CONCLUSIONS: This analysis provides evidence that differential dietary exposure alone fails to explain the pattern of age in vCJD cases. Decreasing age related susceptibility is required to reproduce the characteristics of the age distribution of vCJD cases

Paradoxes and Mechanisms for Choice under Risk

Experiments on choice under risk typically involve multiple decisions by individual subjects. The choice of mechanism for selecting decision(s) for payoff is an essential design feature unless subjects isolate each one of the multiple decisions. We report treatments with different payoff mechanisms but the same decision tasks. The data show large differences across mechanisms in subjects’ revealed risk preferences, a clear violation of isolation. We illustrate the importance of these mechanism effects by identifying their implications for classical tests of theories of decision under risk. We discuss theoretical properties of commonly used mechanisms, and new mechanisms introduced herein, in order to clarify which mechanisms are theoretically incentive compatible for which theories. We identify behavioral properties of some mechanisms that can introduce bias in elicited risk preferences – from cross-task contamination – even when the mechanism used is theoretically incentive compatible. We explain that selection of a payoff mechanism is an important component of experimental design in many topic areas including social preferences, public goods, bargaining, and choice under uncertainty and ambiguity as well as experiments on decisions under risk

Impact of Solitary Involved Lymph Node on Outcome in Localized Cancer of the Esophagus and Esophagogastric Junction

Node-positive esophageal cancer is associated with a dismal prognosis. The impact of a solitary involved node, however, is unclear, and this study examined the implications of a solitary node compared with greater nodal involvement and node-negative disease. The clinical and pathologic details of 604 patients were entered prospectively into a database from1993 and 2005. Four pathologic groups were analyzed: node-negative, one lymph node positive, two or three lymph nodes positive, and greater than three lymph nodes positive. Three hundred and fifteen patients (52%) were node-positive and 289 were node-negative. The median survival was 26 months in the node-negative group. Patients (n = 84) who had one node positive had a median survival of 16 months (p = 0.03 vs node-negative). Eighty-four patients who had two or three nodes positive had a median survival of 11 months compared with a median survival of 8 months in the 146 patients who had greater than three nodes positive (p = 0.01). The survival of patients with one node positive [number of nodes (N) = 1] was also significantly greater than the survival of patients with 2–3 nodes positive (N = 2–3) (p = 0.049) and greater than three nodes positive (p < 0001). The presence of a solitary involved lymph node has a negative impact on survival compared with node-negative disease, but it is associated with significantly improved overall survival compared with all other nodal groups

Programming gene expression with combinatorial promoters

Promoters control the expression of genes in response to one or more transcription factors (TFs). The architecture of a promoter is the arrangement and type of binding sites within it. To understand natural genetic circuits and to design promoters for synthetic biology, it is essential to understand the relationship between promoter function and architecture. We constructed a combinatorial library of random promoter architectures. We characterized 288 promoters in Escherichia coli, each containing up to three inputs from four different TFs. The library design allowed for multiple −10 and −35 boxes, and we observed varied promoter strength over five decades. To further analyze the functional repertoire, we defined a representation of promoter function in terms of regulatory range, logic type, and symmetry. Using these results, we identified heuristic rules for programming gene expression with combinatorial promoters