Application of satellite precipitation data to analyse and model arbovirus activity in the tropics

Background: Murray Valley encephalitis virus (MVEV) is a mosquito-borne Flavivirus (Flaviviridae: Flavivirus) which isclosely related to Japanese encephalitis virus, West Nile virus and St. Louis encephalitis virus. MVEV is enzootic innorthern Australia and Papua New Guinea and epizootic in other parts of Australia. Activity of MVEV in WesternAustralia (WA) is monitored by detection of seroconversions in flocks of sentinel chickens at selected sample sitesthroughout WA.Rainfall is a major environmental factor influencing MVEV activity. Utilising data on rainfall and seroconversions,statistical relationships between MVEV occurrence and rainfall can be determined. These relationships can be usedto predict MVEV activity which, in turn, provides the general public with important information about diseasetransmission risk. Since ground measurements of rainfall are sparse and irregularly distributed, especially in northWA where rainfall is spatially and temporally highly variable, alternative data sources such as remote sensing (RS)data represent an attractive alternative to ground measurements. However, a number of competing alternatives areavailable and careful evaluation is essential to determine the most appropriate product for a given problem.Results: The Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) 3B42product was chosen from a range of RS rainfall products to develop rainfall-based predictor variables and buildlogistic regression models for the prediction of MVEV activity in the Kimberley and Pilbara regions of WA. Twomodels employing monthly time-lagged rainfall variables showed the strongest discriminatory ability of 0.74 and0.80 as measured by the Receiver Operating Characteristics area under the curve (ROC AUC).Conclusions: TMPA data provide a state-of-the-art data source for the development of rainfall-based predictivemodels for Flavivirus activity in tropical WA. Compared to ground measurements these data have the advantage ofbeing collected spatially regularly, irrespective of remoteness. We found that increases in monthly rainfall andmonthly number of days above average rainfall increased the risk of MVEV activity in the Pilbara at a time-lag oftwo months. Increases in monthly rainfall and monthly number of days above average rainfall increased the risk ofMVEV activity in the Kimberley at a lag of three months.I

Impact of the Chelsea critical care physical assessment (CPAx) tool on clinical outcomes of surgical and trauma patients in an intensive care unit: An experimental study

Background: Critically ill patients following traumatic injury or major surgery are at risk of loss of skeletal muscle mass, which leads to decreased physical function. Early rehabilitation in an intensive care unit (ICU) is thought to preserve or restore physical functioning. The Chelsea critical care physical assessment (CPAx) is a measurement tool used to assess physical function in the ICU. Objectives: To determine whether the use of the CPAx tool as part of physiotherapy patient assessment, in two adult trauma and surgical ICU settings where early patient mobilisation forms part of standard physiotherapy practice, had an impact on ICU and hospital length of stay (LOS) through delivery of problem-oriented treatment plans. Method: A single-centred pre–post quasi-experimental study was conducted. The population was a consecutive sample of surgical and trauma ICU patients. Participants’ functional ability was assessed with the CPAx tool on alternative days during their ICU stay, and rehabilitation goals were modified according to their CPAx score. Intensive care unit and hospital LOS data were collected and compared to data of a matched historical control group. Descriptive and inferential statistics were used. Results: A total of 26 ICU patients were included in the intervention group (n = 26). They received CPAx-guided therapy, and outcomes were matched with ICU patients in the historical control group (n = 26). The median sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score was significantly higher in the control group (p = 0.005) (3.5 [IQR 2–6.3]) versus (2 [IQR 1.8–2.5]) for the intervention group. The median admission CPAx score for the intervention group was 33.5 (IQR 16.1–44), and the median ICU discharge score was 38 (IQR 28.5–43.8). No significant differences were found in ICU days (control 2.7 [IQR 1.1–5.2]; intervention 3.7 [IQR 2.3–5.4]; p = 0.27) or hospital LOS (control 13.5 [IQR 9.3–18.3]; intervention 11.4 [IQR 8.4–20.3], p = 0.42). Chelsea critical care physical assessment scores on ICU admission had a moderate negative correlation with hospital LOS (r = -0.58, p = 0.00, n = 23). Chelsea critical care physical assessment scores at ICU discharge had strong positive correlation with discharge SOFA scores (r = 0.7; p = 0.025; n = 10). Conclusion: Problem-oriented patient rehabilitation informed by the CPAx tool resulted in improvement of physical function but did not reduce ICU or hospital LOS. Clinical implications: A higher level of physical function at ICU admission, measured with CPAx, was associated with shorter hospital LOS.South African Society of Physiotherapy Research Foundatio

Terrorist Use of the Internet by the Numbers: Quantifying Behaviors, Patterns and Processes

Public interest and policy debates surrounding the role of the Internet in terrorist activities is increasing. Criminology has said very little on the matter. By using a unique data set of 223 convicted United Kingdom–based terrorists, this article focuses on how they used the Internet in the commission of their crimes. As most samples of terrorist offenders vary in terms of capabilities (lone-actor vs. group offenders) and criminal sophistication (improvised explosive devices vs. stabbings), we tested whether the affordances they sought from the Internet significantly differed. The results suggest that extreme-right-wing individuals, those who planned an attack (as opposed to merely providing material support), conducted a lethal attack, committed an improvised explosive device (IED) attack, committed an armed assault, acted within a cell, attempted to recruit others, and engaged in nonvirtual network activities and nonvirtual place interactions were significantly more likely to learn online compared with those who did not engage in these behaviors. Those undertaking unarmed assaults were significantly less likely to display online learning. The results also suggested that extreme-right-wing individuals who perpetrated an IED attack, associated with a wider network, attempted to recruit others, and engaged in nonvirtual network activities and nonvirtual place interactions were significantly more likely to communicate online with co-ideologues

UK investment trust portfolio strategies before the First World War

UK investment trust companies were at the forefront of financial innovation during the so-called first globalization era before the First World War. This study examines in detail their portfolio strategies using a unique dataset of 115 portfolio observations for 30 different investment trust companies, comprising a total of 32,708 portfolio holdings. Our results reveal strong performance and relatively sophisticated asset management, which was based on a mixture of a buy-and-hold investment strategy and active portfolio management. Investment trusts employed global rather than domestic diversification. The early predominant investment in bonds in the 1880s gradually declined in favour of ordinary and preferred shares. North and Latin American markets were the main geographical target of UK investment trusts, with less appetite for domestic investments and negligible interest in continental European financial securities. There is significant cross-sectional variation in asset allocation between investment trusts; they thus avoided herding behaviour in portfolio choice and developed a wide range of different portfolio strategies

Density-dependence of functional development in spiking cortical networks grown in vitro

During development, the mammalian brain differentiates into specialized regions with distinct functional abilities. While many factors contribute to functional specialization, we explore the effect of neuronal density on the development of neuronal interactions in vitro. Two types of cortical networks, dense and sparse, with 50,000 and 12,000 total cells respectively, are studied. Activation graphs that represent pairwise neuronal interactions are constructed using a competitive first response model. These graphs reveal that, during development in vitro, dense networks form activation connections earlier than sparse networks. Link entropy analysis of dense net- work activation graphs suggests that the majority of connections between electrodes are reciprocal in nature. Information theoretic measures reveal that early functional information interactions (among 3 cells) are synergetic in both dense and sparse networks. However, during later stages of development, previously synergetic relationships become primarily redundant in dense, but not in sparse networks. Large link entropy values in the activation graph are related to the domination of redundant ensembles in late stages of development in dense networks. Results demonstrate differences between dense and sparse networks in terms of informational groups, pairwise relationships, and activation graphs. These differences suggest that variations in cell density may result in different functional specialization of nervous system tissue in vivo.Comment: 10 pages, 7 figure

“What Matters to You” Putting patient centred care first

Aim: Evaluate the use and feasibility of implementation of the “What Matters to You?” (WMTY) in orthogeriatric patients. Methods: An orthogeriatric assessment proforma was completed in patients with a hip or fragility fracture. Data including clinical frailty score (CFS), 4-AT delirium screen, length of stay, discharge disposition and WMTY responses were collected. Results Forty-nine patients were included. Median CFS was 5 (IQR 3), median 4AT was 1 (IQR 3). Forty-three (88%) were admitted from home and six (12%) from nursing homes. Nineteen (39%) were transferred to another hospital, fourteen (29%) home, fourteen (29%) to long term care, two (4%) died. Nineteen (39%) reported what mattered was a return to baseline mobility, seventeen (35%) to get home, two (4%) ‘pain-free’, three (6%) family, four (8%) miscellaneous and four (8%) no reply recorded. Conclusion: WMTY promotes patient-centred practice. This study supports the feasibility of the tool in orthogeriatrics patients including those with mild to moderate cognitive impairment

RESTORE: an exploratory trial of an online intervention to enhance self-efficacy to manage problems associated with cancer-related fatigue following primary cancer treatment: study protocol for a randomized controlled trial

Background: There are over 25 million people worldwide living with or beyond cancer and this number is increasing. Cancer survivors face a range of problems following primary treatment. One of the most frequently reported and distressing symptoms experienced by cancer survivors is fatigue. There is growing support for survivors who are experiencing problems after cancer treatment to engage in supported self-management. To date there is some evidence of effective interventions to manage fatigue in this population; however, to our knowledge there are no online resources that draw on this information to support self-management of fatigue. This paper describes the protocol for an exploratory randomized controlled trial of an online intervention to support self-management of cancer-related fatigue after primary cancer treatment.Methods/design: This is a parallel-group two-armed (1:1) exploratory randomized controlled trial including 125 cancer survivors experiencing fatigue (scoring ≥4 on a unidimensional 11-point numeric rating scale for fatigue intensity) within five years of primary treatment completion with curative intent. Participants will be recruited from 13 NHS Trusts across the UK and randomized to either the online intervention (RESTORE), or a leaflet comparator (Macmillan Cancer Backup, Coping with Fatigue). The primary outcome is a change in Perceived Self-Efficacy for Fatigue Self-Management (as measured by the Perceived Self-Efficacy for Fatigue Self-Management Instrument). Secondary outcomes include impact on perception and experience of fatigue (measured by the Brief Fatigue Inventory), and quality of life (measured by the Functional Assessment of Cancer Therapy - General and the Personal Wellbeing Index). Outcome measures will be collected at baseline, 6 weeks (completion of intervention), and 3 months. Process evaluation (including telephone interviews with recruiting staff and participants) will determine acceptability of the intervention and trial processes.Discussion: Data from this trial will be used to refine the intervention and contribute to the design of an effectiveness trial. This intervention will be expanded to address other cancer-related problems important to cancer survivors following primary cancer treatment

Informe final: Priorizando inversiones en agricultura sostenible adaptada al clima en Guatemala

El siguiente informe abordará los resultados del primer y segundo taller de Priorización de Inversiones en Agricultura Sostenible Adaptada al Clima realizados los días 7 de Agosto de 2014 y 18 de Junio de 2015 respectivamente, en Ciudad de Guatemala, Guatemala. A través de las secciones se presentarán cada una de las actividades desarrolladas durante los eventos, y al mismo tiempo se hará un breve análisis de los principales resultados obtenidos junto con unas conclusiones finales. La información aquí presentada, será el insumo necesario para completar el ciclo de priorización de prácticas ASAC dentro del Marco de Priorización e iniciar una etapa de construcción del entorno favorable para la adopción y escalamiento de portafolios de prácticas de Agricultura Sostenible Adaptada al Clima (ASAC) con la colaboración articulada entre el MAGA y los diferentes actores involucrados e identificados durante el proceso

Science and Film-making

The essay reviews the literature, mostly historical, on the relationship between science and film-making, with a focus on the science documentary. It then discusses the circumstances of the emergence of the wildlife making-of documentary genre. The thesis examined here is that since the early days of cinema, film-making has evolved from being subordinate to science, to being an equal partner in the production of knowledge, controlled by non-scientists