Emergence of a new predator in the North Sea: evaluation of potential trophic impacts focused on hake, saithe, and Norway pout

During the last 15 years, northern European hake (Merluccius merluccius) has increased in abundance, and its spatial distribution has expanded in the North Sea region in correlation with temperature. In a context of global warming, this spatial shift could impact local trophic interactions: direct impacts may affect forage fish through modified predator–prey interactions, and indirect impacts may materialize through competition with other resident predators. For instance, North Sea saithe (Pollachius virens) spatial overlap with hake has increased while saithe spawning-stock biomass has decreased recently notwithstanding a sustainable exploitation. In this context, we investigated the range of potential impacts resulting from most recent hake emergence in the North Sea, with a particular focus on saithe. We carried out a multispecies assessment of North Sea saithe, using the Stochastic MultiSpecies (SMS) model. In addition to top-down processes already implemented in SMS, we built in the model bottom-up processes, relating Norway pout (Trisopterus esmarkii) abundance and saithe weight-at-age. We simulated the effects, on all North Sea species being considered but focusing on Norway pout and saithe, of combining different hake abundance trends scenarios with the inclusion of bottom-up processes in SMS. North Sea saithe FMSY was then evaluated in a multispecies context and contrasted with single-species value. The different scenarios tested revealed a negative impact of hake emergence on saithe biomass, resulting from an increase of predation pressure on Norway pout. These results confirm the competition assumption between saithe and hake in the North Sea and might partially explain the most recent decrease of saithe biomass. This study also highlighted that taking into account bottom-up processes in the stock assessment had a limited effect on the estimation of saithe FMSY which was consistent with single-species value

Non-linearity in stock–recruitment relationships of Atlantic cod: insights from a multi-model approach

The stock–recruitment relationship is the basis of any stock prediction and thus fundamental for fishery management. Traditional parametric stock–recruitment models often poorly fit empirical data, nevertheless they are still the rule in fish stock assessment procedures. We here apply a multi-model approach to predict recruitment of 20 Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) stocks as a function of adult biomass and environmental variables. We compare the traditional Ricker model with two non-parametric approaches: (i) the stochastic cusp model from catastrophe theory and (ii) multivariate simplex projections, based on attractor state-space reconstruction. We show that the performance of each model is contingent on the historical dynamics of individual stocks, and that stocks which experienced abrupt and state-dependent dynamics are best modelled using non-parametric approaches. These dynamics are pervasive in Western stocks highlighting a geographical distinction between cod stocks, which have implications for their recovery potential. Furthermore, the addition of environmental variables always improved the models’ predictive power indicating that they should be considered in stock assessment and management routines. Using our multi-model approach, we demonstrate that we should be more flexible when modelling recruitment and tailor our approaches to the dynamical properties of each individual stock.https://academic.oup.com/icesjms/article/77/4/1492/5522545Published versio

Uncertainties in projecting climate-change impacts in marine ecosystems

Projections of the impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems are a key prerequisite for the planning of adaptation strategies, yet they are inevitably associated with uncertainty. Identifying, quantifying, and communicating this uncertainty is key to both evaluating the risk associated with a projection and building confidence in its robustness. We review how uncertainties in such projections are handled in marine science. We employ an approach developed in climate modelling by breaking uncertainty down into (i) structural (model) uncertainty, (ii) initialization and internal variability uncertainty, (iii) parametric uncertainty, and (iv) scenario uncertainty. For each uncertainty type, we then examine the current state-of-the-art in assessing and quantifying its relative importance. We consider whether the marine scientific community has addressed these types of uncertainty sufficiently and highlight the opportunities and challenges associated with doing a better job. We find that even within a relatively small field such as marine science, there are substantial differences between subdisciplines in the degree of attention given to each type of uncertainty. We find that initialization uncertainty is rarely treated explicitly and reducing this type of uncertainty may deliver gains on the seasonal-to-decadal time-scale. We conclude that all parts of marine science could benefit from a greater exchange of ideas, particularly concerning such a universal problem such as the treatment of uncertainty. Finally, marine science should strive to reach the point where scenario uncertainty is the dominant uncertainty in our projections

Uncertainties in projecting climate-change impacts in marine ecosystems

Projections of the impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems are a key prerequisite for the planning of adaptation strategies, yet they are inevitably associated with uncertainty. Identifying, quantifying, and communicating this uncertainty is key to both evaluating the risk associated with a projection and building confidence in its robustness. We review how uncertainties in such projections are handled in marine science. We employ an approach developed in climate modelling by breaking uncertainty down into (i) structural (model) uncertainty, (ii) initialization and internal variability uncertainty, (iii) parametric uncertainty, and (iv) scenario uncertainty. For each uncertainty type, we then examine the current state-of-the-art in assessing and quantifying its relative importance. We consider whether the marine scientific community has addressed these types of uncertainty sufficiently and highlight the opportunities and challenges associated with doing a better job. We find that even within a relatively small field such as marine science, there are substantial differences between subdisciplines in the degree of attention given to each type of uncertainty. We find that initialization uncertainty is rarely treated explicitly and reducing this type of uncertainty may deliver gains on the seasonal-to-decadal time-scale.Weconclude that all parts of marine science could benefit from a greater exchange of ideas, particularly concerning such a universal problem such as the treatment of uncertainty. Finally, marine science should strive to reach the point where scenario uncertainty is the dominant uncertainty in our projections

Impacts de l’émergence d’un top-prédateur dans un écosystème exploité : le merlu et le lieu noir de mer du Nord. : Quelles interactions ? Quelles conséquences ?

La population de lieu noir (Pollachius virens) de mer du Nord a une importance économique élevée pour les pêcheries européennes. Depuis une dizaine d’années, l’abondance du lieu noir a décliné, alors que le merlu (Merluccius merluccius), qui était peu pêché dans cette zone, a vu son abondance fortement augmenter. Ce travail se concentre sur la nature des interactions écologiques entre le lieu noir et le merlu en Mer du Nord afin de déterminer si la récente émergence du merlu dans cette zone pourrait expliquer, au moins en partie, le récent déclin du stock de lieu noir. Les résultats obtenus lors de ce travail de recherche ont permis de valider l’hypothèse de compétition entre le lieu noir et le merlu. De plus, cette étude a révélé un impact potentiellement négatif de l’augmentation du merlu sur la biomasse de lieu noir. L’émergence du merlu en mer du Nord doit donc être sérieusement prise en compte dans les avis scientifiques supportant les décisions de gestion encadrant la pêche du lieu noir, mais aussi des autres espèces de mer du Nord que l’émergence du merlu est susceptible d’affecter. Finalement, ce travail fournit donc les premières bases écologiques nécessaires à une investigation plus détaillée des conséquences de l’émergence du merlu dans un écosystème hautement exploité tel que la mer du Nord.North Sea saithe (Pollachius virens) has high economic value for European fisheries. In recent years, North Sea saithe abundance has decreased, while abundance of hake (Merluccius merluccius), which was rarely fished in the North Sea, has increased dramatically in the area. This work investigate the nature of the ecological interactions between saithe and hake in the North Sea, in order to understand if recent hake emergence in this area could explain, at least partially, the recent decline of the saithe stock. The results obtained during this research suggested competitive interactions between saithe and hake predators in the area. In addition, this investigation revealed potential negative effects of hake emergence in the North Sea on the resident saithe stock. Therefore, hake emergence in the North Sea must be taken into account when managing commercial species fisheries, the sustainability of which may be threatened by this up-coming predator. Finally, the results obtained within this PhD research thesis highlight the importance of hake as an up-coming predator and competitor in the North Sea, and provide the necessary basis for further investigations of hake potential ecological and economic function in this exploited ecosystem

Impacts of a top-predator emergence in an exploited ecosystem: North Sea hake and saithe. Which interactions? What consequences?

North Sea saithe (Pollachius virens) has high economic value for European fisheries. In recent years, North Sea saithe abundance has decreased, while abundance of hake (Merluccius merluccius), which was rarely fished in the North Sea, has increased dramatically in the area. This work investigates the nature of the ecological interactions between saithe and hake in the North Sea, in order to understand if recent hake emergence in this area could explain, at least partially, the recent decline of the saithe stock. The results obtained during this research suggested competitive interactions between saithe and hake predators in the area. In addition, this investigation revealed potential negative effects of hake on the resident saithe stock. Therefore, hake emergence in the North Sea must be taken into account when managing commercial fish stocks, the sustainability of which may be threatened by this up-coming predator. Finally, the results obtained within this PhD study highlight the importance of hake as an up-coming predator and competitor in the North Sea, and provide the necessary basis for further investigations of hake potential ecological and economic function in this exploited ecosystem.La population de lieu noir (Pollachius virens) de mer du Nord a une importance économique élevée pour les pêcheries européennes. Depuis une dizaine d’années, l’abondance du lieu noir a décliné, alors que le merlu (Merluccius merluccius), qui était peu pêché dans cette zone, a vu son abondance fortement augmenter. Ce travail se concentre sur la nature des interactions écologiques entre le lieu noir et le merlu en Mer du Nord afin de déterminer si la récente émergence du merlu dans cette zone pourrait expliquer, au moins en partie, le récent déclin du stock de lieu noir. Les résultats obtenus lors de ce travail de recherche ont permis de valider l’hypothèse de compétition entre le lieu noir et le merlu. De plus, cette étude a révélé un impact potentiellement négatif de l’augmentation du merlu sur la biomasse de lieu noir. L’émergence du merlu en mer du Nord doit donc être sérieusement prise en compte dans les avis scientifiques supportant les décisions de gestion encadrant la pêche du lieu noir, mais aussi des autres espèces de mer du Nord que l’émergence du merlu est susceptible d’affecter. Finalement, ce travail fournit donc les premières bases écologiques nécessaires à une investigation plus détaillée des conséquences de l’émergence du merlu dans un écosystème hautement exploité tel que la mer du Nord

Spatial interactions between saithe (Pollachius virens) and hake (Merluccius merluccius) in the North Sea

Spatial interactions between saithe (Pollachius virens) and hake (Merluccius merluccius) were investigated in the North Sea. Saithe is a well-established species in the North Sea, while occurrence of the less common hake has recently increased in the area. Spatial dynamics of these two species and their potential spatial interactions were explored using binomial generalized linear models (GLM) applied to the International Bottom Trawl Survey (IBTS) data from 1991 to 2012. Models included different types of variables: (i) abiotic variables including sediment types, temperature, and bathymetry; (ii) biotic variables including potential competitors and potential preys presence; and (iii) spatial variables. The models were reduced and used to predict and map probable habitats of saithe, hake but also, for the first time in the North Sea, the distribution of the spatial overlap between these two species. Changes in distribution patterns of these two species and of their overlap were also investigated by comparing species' presence and overlap probabilities predicted over an early (1991–1996) and a late period (2007–2012). The results show an increase in the probability over time of the overlap between saithe and hake along with an expansion towards the southwest and Scottish waters. These shifts follow trends observed in temperature data and might be indirectly induced by climate changes. Saithe, hake, and their overlap are positively influenced by potential preys and/or competitors, which confirms spatial co-occurrence of the species concerned and leads to the questions of predator–prey relationships and competition. Finally, the present study provides robust predictions concerning the spatial distribution of saithe, hake, and of their overlap in the North Sea, which may be of interest for fishery managers

North Sea saithe Pollachius virens growth in relation to food availability, density dependence and temperature

North Sea saithe Pollachius virens, a major top predator in the area, supports the fishery economy of several European countries. However, recent stock assessments suggested a decrease in spawning stock biomass along with a decline in saithe mean weight-at-ages. In this context, we investigated North Sea saithe growth characteristics at the population level. First, saithe annual weight increments and age-length relationships were studied. Modelling of saithe age-length relationships was carried out using (1) the traditional von Bertalanffy growth function model, (2) the Verhulst logistic model and (3) an empirical linear model. Second, the effects of environmental factors on saithe growth were investigated. Explanatory environmental factors included food availability, represented by the total biomass of Norway pout Trisopterus esmarkii; intraspecific competition, i.e. density dependence, represented by saithe abundance; and temperature. This study revealed that the Verhulst logistic model was the best descriptor of saithe growth and that density dependence and food availability had significant effects on the saithe growth coefficient, while no effect of temperature was shown. We suggest that reduced food availability and increased competition may explain the recent decrease in the saithe growth coefficient

Inferring the annual, seasonal, and spatial distributions of marine species from complementary research and commercial vessels’ catch rates

The objective of this study is to analyse at fine scale the annual, seasonal and spatial distributions of several species in the Eastern English Channel (EEC). On the one hand, data obtained from scientific surveys are not available all year through, but are considered to provide consistent yearly and spatially resolved abundance indices. On the other hand, on-board commercial data do cover the whole year, but generally provide a biased perception of stock abundance. The combination of scientific and commercial catches per unit of effort (CPUEs), standardized using a delta-generalized linear model, allowed to infer spatial and monthly dynamics of fish distributions in the EEC, which could be compared with previous knowledge on their life cycles. Considering the scientific survey as a repository, the degree of reliability of commercial CPUEs was assessed with survey-based distribution using the Local Index of Collocation. Large scale information was in agreement with literature, especially for cuttlefish. Fine scale consistency between survey and commercial data was significant for half of the 19 tested species (e.g. whiting, cod). For the other species (e.g. plaice, thornback ray), the results were inconclusive, mainly owing to poor commercial data coverage and/or to particular aspects of the species biology