Predicting the long-term impact of antiretroviral therapy scale-up on population incidence of tuberculosis.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the impact of antiretroviral therapy (ART) on long-term population-level tuberculosis disease (TB) incidence in sub-Saharan Africa. METHODS: We used a mathematical model to consider the effect of different assumptions about life expectancy and TB risk during long-term ART under alternative scenarios for trends in population HIV incidence and ART coverage. RESULTS: All the scenarios we explored predicted that the widespread introduction of ART would initially reduce population-level TB incidence. However, many modelled scenarios projected a rebound in population-level TB incidence after around 20 years. This rebound was predicted to exceed the TB incidence present before ART scale-up if decreases in HIV incidence during the same period were not sufficiently rapid or if the protective effect of ART on TB was not sustained. Nevertheless, most scenarios predicted a reduction in the cumulative TB incidence when accompanied by a relative decline in HIV incidence of more than 10% each year. CONCLUSIONS: Despite short-term benefits of ART scale-up on population TB incidence in sub-Saharan Africa, longer-term projections raise the possibility of a rebound in TB incidence. This highlights the importance of sustaining good adherence and immunologic response to ART and, crucially, the need for effective HIV preventive interventions, including early widespread implementation of ART

Nearshore mixing and nutrient delivery along the western Antarctic Peninsula

The surface waters of the Southern Ocean play a key role in the global climate and carbon cycles by promoting growth of some of the world’s largest phytoplankton blooms. Several studies have emphasized the importance of glacial and sediment inputs of Fe that fuel the primary production of the Fe-limited Southern Ocean. Although the fertile surface waters along the shelf of the western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) are influenced by large inputs of freshwater, this freshwater may take multiple pathways (e.g. calving, streams, groundwater discharge) with different degrees of water-rock interactions leading to variable Fe flux to coastal waters. During the summers of 2012–13 and 2013–14, seawater samples were collected along the WAP, near Anvers Island, to observe water column dynamics in nearshore and offshore waters. Tracers (223,224Ra, 222Rn, 18O, 2H) were used to evaluate the source and transport of water and nutrients in coastal fjords and across the shelf. Coastal waters are compared across two field seasons, with increased freshwater observed during 2014. Horizontal mixing rates of water masses along the WAP ranged from 110–3600 m2 s-1. These mixing rates suggest a rapid transport mechanism for moving meltwater offshore.ECU Open Access Publishing Support Fun

Tuberculosis control in South African gold mines: mathematical modeling of a trial of community-wide isoniazid preventive therapy.

A recent major cluster randomized trial of screening, active disease treatment, and mass isoniazid preventive therapy for 9 months during 2006-2011 among South African gold miners showed reduced individual-level tuberculosis incidence but no detectable population-level impact. We fitted a dynamic mathematical model to trial data and explored 1) factors contributing to the lack of population-level impact, 2) the best-achievable impact if all implementation characteristics were increased to the highest level achieved during the trial ("optimized intervention"), and 3) how tuberculosis might be better controlled with additional interventions (improving diagnostics, reducing treatment delay, providing isoniazid preventive therapy continuously to human immunodeficiency virus-positive people, or scaling up antiretroviral treatment coverage) individually and in combination. We found the following: 1) The model suggests that a small proportion of latent infections among human immunodeficiency virus-positive people were cured, which could have been a key factor explaining the lack of detectable population-level impact. 2) The optimized implementation increased impact by only 10%. 3) Implementing additional interventions individually and in combination led to up to 30% and 75% reductions, respectively, in tuberculosis incidence after 10 years. Tuberculosis control requires a combination prevention approach, including health systems strengthening to minimize treatment delay, improving diagnostics, increased antiretroviral treatment coverage, and effective preventive treatment regimens

Efficacy of secondary isoniazid preventive therapy among HIVinfected Southern Africans: time to change policy?

Objective. To determine the efficacy of secondary preventive therapy against tuberculosis (TB) among goldminers working in South Africa. Design. An observational study. Methods. The incidence of recurrent TB was compared between two cohorts of HIV-infected miners: one cohort had received secondary preventive therapy with isoniazid and the other had not. Setting. Health service providing comprehensive care for goldminers. Participants. 338 men received secondary preventive therapy and 221 did not. Main outcome measure. Incidence of recurrent TB. Results. The overall incidence of recurrent TB was reduced by 55% among men who received isoniazid preventive therapy (IPT) compared to those who did not (incidence rates 8.6 and 19.1 per 100 person-years respectively, incidence rate ratio 0.45; 95% CI 0.26 – 0.78). The efficacy of isoniazid preventive therapy was unchanged after controlling for CD4 count and age. The number of person-years of isoniazid preventive therapy required to prevent one case of recurrent TB among individuals with a CD4 count < 200/µl and &#8805;&#61472;200/µl was 5 and 19, respectively. Conclusion. Secondary preventive therapy reduces TB recurrence: the absolute impact appears to be greatest among individuals with low CD4 counts. International TB preventive therapy guidelines for HIV-infected individuals need to be expanded to include recommendations for secondary preventive therapy in settings where TB prevalence is high. Southern African Journal of HIV Medicine Vol. 5(3) 2004: 8-1

A trial of mass isoniazid preventive therapy for tuberculosis control.

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis is epidemic among workers in South African gold mines. We evaluated an intervention to interrupt tuberculosis transmission by means of mass screening that was linked to treatment for active disease or latent infection. METHODS: In a cluster-randomized study, we designated 15 clusters with 78,744 miners as either intervention clusters (40,981 miners in 8 clusters) or control clusters (37,763 miners in 7 clusters). In the intervention clusters, all miners were offered tuberculosis screening. If active tuberculosis was diagnosed, they were referred for treatment; if not, they were offered 9 months of isoniazid preventive therapy. The primary outcome was the cluster-level incidence of tuberculosis during the 12 months after the intervention ended. Secondary outcomes included tuberculosis prevalence at study completion. RESULTS: In the intervention clusters, 27,126 miners (66.2%) underwent screening. Of these miners, 23,659 (87.2%) started taking isoniazid, and isoniazid was dispensed for 6 months or more to 35 to 79% of miners, depending on the cluster. The intervention did not reduce the incidence of tuberculosis, with rates of 3.02 per 100 person-years in the intervention clusters and 2.95 per 100 person-years in the control clusters (rate ratio in the intervention clusters, 1.00; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.75 to 1.34; P=0.98; adjusted rate ratio, 0.96; 95% CI, 0.76 to 1.21; P=0.71), or the prevalence of tuberculosis (2.35% vs. 2.14%; adjusted prevalence ratio, 0.98; 95% CI, 0.65 to 1.48; P=0.90). Analysis of the direct effect of isoniazid in 10,909 miners showed a reduced incidence of tuberculosis during treatment (1.10 cases per 100 person-years among miners receiving isoniazid vs. 2.91 cases per 100 person-years among controls; adjusted rate ratio, 0.42; 95% CI, 0.20 to 0.88; P=0.03), but there was a subsequent rapid loss of protection. CONCLUSIONS: Mass screening and treatment for latent tuberculosis had no significant effect on tuberculosis control in South African gold mines, despite the successful use of isoniazid in preventing tuberculosis during treatment. (Funded by the Consortium to Respond Effectively to the AIDS TB Epidemic and others; Thibela TB Current Controlled Trials number, ISRCTN63327174.)

Comparison of indoor contact time data in Zambia and Western Cape, South Africa suggests targeting of interventions to reduce Mycobacterium tuberculosis transmission should be informed by local data.

BACKGROUND: In high incidence settings, the majority of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (M.tb) transmission occurs outside the household. Little is known about where people's indoor contacts occur outside the household, and how this differs between different settings. We estimate the number of contact hours that occur between adults and adult/youths and children in different building types in urban areas in Western Cape, South Africa, and Zambia. METHODS: Data were collected from 3206 adults using a cross-sectional survey, on buildings visited in a 24-h period, including building function, visit duration, and number of adults/youths and children (5-12 years) present. The mean numbers of contact hours per day by building function were calculated. RESULTS: Adults in Western Cape were more likely to visit workplaces, and less likely to visit shops and churches than adults in Zambia. Adults in Western Cape spent longer per visit in other homes and workplaces than adults in Zambia. More adults/youths were present at visits to shops and churches in Western Cape than in Zambia, and fewer at homes and hairdressers. More children were present at visits to shops in Western Cape than in Zambia, and fewer at schools and hairdressers. Overall numbers of adult/youth indoor contact hours were the same at both sites (35.4 and 37.6 h in Western Cape and Zambia respectively, p = 0.4). Child contact hours were higher in Zambia (16.0 vs 13.7 h, p = 0.03). Adult/youth and child contact hours were highest in workplaces in Western Cape and churches in Zambia. Compared to Zambia, adult contact hours in Western Cape were higher in workplaces (15.2 vs 8.0 h, p = 0.004), and lower in churches (3.7 vs 8.6 h, p = 0.002). Child contact hours were higher in other peoples' homes (2.8 vs 1.6 h, p = 0.03) and workplaces (4.9 vs 2.1 h, p = 0.003), and lower in churches (2.5 vs 6.2, p = 0.004) and schools (0.4 vs 1.5, p = 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: Patterns of indoor contact between adults and adults/youths and children differ between different sites in high M.tb incidence areas. Targeting public buildings with interventions to reduce M.tb transmission (e.g. increasing ventilation or UV irradiation) should be informed by local data

Aggregation and Representation in the European Parliament Party Groups

While members of the European Parliament are elected in national constituencies, their votes are determined by the aggregation of MEPs in multinational party groups. The uncoordinated aggregation of national party programmes in multinational EP party groups challenges theories of representation based on national parties and parliaments. This article provides a theoretical means of understanding representation by linking the aggregation of dozens of national party programmes in different EP party groups to the aggregation of groups to produce the parliamentary majority needed to enact policies. Drawing on an original data source of national party programmes, the EU Profiler, the article shows that the EP majorities created by aggregating MEP votes in party groups are best explained by cartel theories. These give priority to strengthening the EP’s collective capacity to enact policies rather than voting in accord with the programmes they were nationally elected to represent

Age- and Sex-Specific Social Contact Patterns and Incidence of Mycobacterium tuberculosis Infection: Interview Questionnaire

Questionnaire used in a study of Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection incidences among adults in the Western Cape, South Africa. The questionnaire was piloted in Zambia in early 2011, before being used in face-to-face interviews with random selected adults who were enrolled in the Zambia-South Africa TB and AIDS Reduction (ZAMSTAR) Study

Uptake, Accuracy, Safety, and Linkage into Care over Two Years of Promoting Annual Self-Testing for HIV in Blantyre, Malawi: A Community-Based Prospective Study

Background Home-based HIV testing and counselling (HTC) achieves high uptake, but is difficult and expensive to implement and sustain. We investigated a novel alternative based on HIV self-testing (HIVST). The aim was to evaluate the uptake of testing, accuracy, linkage into care, and health outcomes when highly convenient and flexible but supported access to HIVST kits was provided to a well-defined and closely monitored population. Methods and Findings Following enumeration of 14 neighbourhoods in urban Blantyre, Malawi, trained resident volunteer-counsellors offered oral HIVST kits (OraQuick ADVANCE Rapid HIV-1/2 Antibody Test) to adult (≥16 y old) residents (n = 16,660) and reported community events, with all deaths investigated by verbal autopsy. Written and demonstrated instructions, pre- and post-test counselling, and facilitated HIV care assessment were provided, with a request to return kits and a self-completed questionnaire. Accuracy, residency, and a study-imposed requirement to limit HIVST to one test per year were monitored by home visits in a systematic quality assurance (QA) sample. Overall, 14,004 (crude uptake 83.8%, revised to 76.5% to account for population turnover) residents self-tested during months 1–12, with adolescents (16–19 y) most likely to test. 10,614/14,004 (75.8%) participants shared results with volunteer-counsellors. Of 1,257 (11.8%) HIV-positive participants, 26.0% were already on antiretroviral therapy, and 524 (linkage 56.3%) newly accessed care with a median CD4 count of 250 cells/μl (interquartile range 159–426). HIVST uptake in months 13–24 was more rapid (70.9% uptake by 6 mo), with fewer (7.3%, 95% CI 6.8%–7.8%) positive participants. Being “forced to test”, usually by a main partner, was reported by 2.9% (95% CI 2.6%–3.2%) of 10,017 questionnaire respondents in months 1–12, but satisfaction with HIVST (94.4%) remained high. No HIVST-related partner violence or suicides were reported. HIVST and repeat HTC results agreed in 1,639/1,649 systematically selected (1 in 20) QA participants (99.4%), giving a sensitivity of 93.6% (95% CI 88.2%–97.0%) and a specificity of 99.9% (95% CI 99.6%–100%). Key limitations included use of aggregate data to report uptake of HIVST and being unable to adjust for population turnover. Conclusions Community-based HIVST achieved high coverage in two successive years and was safe, accurate, and acceptable. Proactive HIVST strategies, supported and monitored by communities, could substantially complement existing approaches to providing early HIV diagnosis and periodic repeat testing to adolescents and adults in high-HIV settings

The melanoma-specific graded prognostic assessment does not adequately discriminate prognosis in a modern population with brain metastases from malignant melanoma

The melanoma-specific graded prognostic assessment (msGPA) assigns patients with brain metastases from malignant melanoma to 1 of 4 prognostic groups. It was largely derived using clinical data from patients treated in the era that preceded the development of newer therapies such as BRAF, MEK and immune checkpoint inhibitors. Therefore, its current relevance to patients diagnosed with brain metastases from malignant melanoma is unclear. This study is an external validation of the msGPA in two temporally distinct British populations.Performance of the msGPA was assessed in Cohort I (1997-2008, n=231) and Cohort II (2008-2013, n=162) using Kaplan-Meier methods and Harrell's c-index of concordance. Cox regression was used to explore additional factors that may have prognostic relevance.The msGPA does not perform well as a prognostic score outside of the derivation cohort, with suboptimal statistical calibration and discrimination, particularly in those patients with an intermediate prognosis. Extra-cerebral metastases, leptomeningeal disease, age and potential use of novel targeted agents after brain metastases are diagnosed, should be incorporated into future prognostic models.An improved prognostic score is required to underpin high-quality randomised controlled trials in an area with a wide disparity in clinical care