The great melting pot. Common sole population connectivity assessed by otolith and water fingerprints

Quantifying the scale and importance of individual dispersion between populations and life stages is a key challenge in marine ecology. The common sole (Solea solea), an important commercial flatfish in the North Sea, Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea, has a marine pelagic larval stage, a benthic juvenile stage in coastal nurseries (lagoons, estuaries or shallow marine areas) and a benthic adult stage in deeper marine waters on the continental shelf. To date, the ecological connectivity among these life stages has been little assessed in the Mediterranean. Here, such an assessment is provided for the first time for the Gulf of Lions, NW Mediterranean, based on a dataset on otolith microchemistry and stable isotopic composition as indicators of the water masses inhabited by individual fish. Specifically, otolith Ba/Ca and Sr/Ca profiles, and delta C-13 and delta O-18 values of adults collected in four areas of the Gulf of Lions were compared with those of young-of-the-year collected in different coastal nurseries. Results showed that a high proportion of adults (>46%) were influenced by river inputs during their larval stage. Furthermore Sr/Ca ratios and the otolith length at one year of age revealed that most adults (similar to 70%) spent their juvenile stage in nurseries with high salinity, whereas the remainder used brackish environments. In total, data were consistent with the use of six nursery types, three with high salinity (marine areas and two types of highly saline lagoons) and three brackish (coastal areas near river mouths, and two types of brackish environments), all of which contributed to the replenishment of adult populations. These finding implicated panmixia in sole population in the Gulf of Lions and claimed for a habitat integrated management of fisherie

Chapter 12: Systematic Review of Prognostic Tests

A number of new biological markers are being studied as predictors of disease or adverse medical events among those who already have a disease. Systematic reviews of this growing literature can help determine whether the available evidence supports use of a new biomarker as a prognostic test that can more accurately place patients into different prognostic groups to improve treatment decisions and the accuracy of outcome predictions. Exemplary reviews of prognostic tests are not widely available, and the methods used to review diagnostic tests do not necessarily address the most important questions about prognostic tests that are used to predict the time-dependent likelihood of future patient outcomes. We provide suggestions for those interested in conducting systematic reviews of a prognostic test. The proposed use of the prognostic test should serve as the framework for a systematic review and to help define the key questions. The outcome probabilities or level of risk and other characteristics of prognostic groups are the most salient statistics for review and perhaps meta-analysis. Reclassification tables can help determine how a prognostic test affects the classification of patients into different prognostic groups, hence their treatment. Review of studies of the association between a potential prognostic test and patient outcomes would have little impact other than to determine whether further development as a prognostic test might be warranted