Методи оцінки ризиків в інформаційній системі аналізу екологічного стану басейну малої ріки

В інформаційній системі аналізу стану басейну малої ріки запропоновано методи оцінки ризиків на основі імовірнісних та статистичних оцінок, формалізації моделі гри з природою, прогнозування процесів підтоплення земель з використанням ланцюгів Маркова, розглянуто багато критеріальні моделі ризиків.In informational and analytical system of the small rivers’ ecological condition estimation the methods of risks modelling on the basis of likelihood and statistical estimations, formalization of models of game with nature, risk modelling and forecasting processes flooded lands using Markov chains are offered, multicriteria models of risks are considered

Direct and inverse measurement of thin films magnetostriction

Two techniques of measurements of thin film magnetostriction are compared: direct, when changes of the substrate curvature caused by the film magnetization are controlled, and inverse ("indirect"), when the modification of the magnetic anisotropy induced by the substrate deformation (usually bending) is measured. We demonstrate how both the elastic strength of the substrate and the effective magneto-mechanical coupling between the substrate deformation and magnetic anisotropy of the film depend on different conditions of bending. Equations to be used for magnetostriction value determination in typical cases are given and critical parameters for the corresponding approximations are identified.Comment: 13 pages, 10 figures, 1 table, submitted to JMM

Assessing cognitive insight in nonpsychiatric individuals and outpatients with schizophrenia in Taiwan: an investigation using the Beck Cognitive Insight Scale

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The Beck Cognitive Insight Scale (BCIS) was designed for the assessment of the cognitive processes involved in self-reflection and the ability to modify erroneous beliefs and misinterpretations. Studies investigating the factor structure of the BCIS have indicated a two-factor model in the psychotic population. The factor structure of the BCIS, however, has not received much consideration in the nonpsychiatric population. The present study examined the factor structure and validity of the BCIS and compared its scores between nonpsychiatric individuals and outpatients with psychosis.</p> <p>Method</p> <p>The Taiwanese version of the BCIS was administered to 507 nonpsychiatric individuals and 118 outpatients with schizophrenia. The psychometric properties of the BCIS were examined through the following analyses: exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses, reliability, correlation analyses, and discriminative validity.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The BCIS showed adequate internal consistency and stability over time. Exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses on the 15-item measure indicated a two-factor solution that supported the two dimensions of the Taiwanese BCIS, which was also observed with the original BCIS. Following the construct validation, we obtained a composite index (self-reflectiveness minus self-certainty) of the Taiwanese BCIS that reflected cognitive insight. Consistent with previous studies, our results indicated that psychosis is associated with low self-reflectiveness and high self-certainty, which possibly reflect lower cognitive insight. Our results also showed that better cognitive insight is related to worse depression in patients with schizophrenia spectrum disorders, but not in nonpsychiatric individuals. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analyses revealed that the area under the curve (AUC) was 0.731. A composite index of 3 was a good limit, with a sensitivity of 87% and a specificity of 51%.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The BCIS proved to be useful for measuring cognitive insight in Taiwanese nonpsychiatric and psychotic populations.</p

From planning the port/city to planning the port-city : exploring the economic interface in European port cities

In last three decades, planning agencies of most ports have institutionally evolved into a (semi-) independent port authority. The rationale behind this process is that port authorities are able to react more quickly to changing logistical and spatial preferences of maritime firms, hence increasing the competitiveness of ports. Although these dedicated port authorities have proven to be largely successful, new economic, social, and environmental challenges are quickly catching up on these port governance models, and particularly leads to (spatial) policy ‘conflicts’ between port and city. This chapter starts by assessing this conflict and argue that the conflict is partly a result of dominant—often also academic—spatial representations of the port city as two separate entities. To escape this divisive conception of contemporary port cities, this chapter presents a relational visualisation method that is able to analyse the economic interface between port and city. Based on our results, we reflect back on our proposition and argue that the core challenge today for researchers and policy makers is acknowledging the bias of port/city, being arguably a self-fulfilling prophecy. Hence, we turn the idea of (planning the) port/city conflicts into planning the port-city’s strengths and weaknesses

In situ commissioning of the ATLAS electromagnetic calorimeter with cosmic muons

In 2006, ATLAS entered the {\it in situ} commissioning phase. The primary goal of this phase is to verify the detector operation and performance with cosmic muons. Using a dedicated cosmic muon trigger from the hadronic Tile calorimeter, a sample of approximately $120\,000$ events was collected in several modules of the barrel electromagnetic (EM) calorimeter between August 2006 and March 2007. As cosmic events are generally non-projective and arrive asynchronously with respect to the trigger clock, methods to improve the standard signal reconstruction for this situation are presented. Various selection criteria for projective muons and clustering algorithms have been tested, leading to preliminary results on calorimeter uniformity in $\eta$ and timing performance

A comparison of two methods for expert elicitation in health technology assessments.

BACKGROUND: When data needed to inform parameters in decision models are lacking, formal elicitation of expert judgement can be used to characterise parameter uncertainty. Although numerous methods for eliciting expert opinion as probability distributions exist, there is little research to suggest whether one method is more useful than any other method. This study had three objectives: (i) to obtain subjective probability distributions characterising parameter uncertainty in the context of a health technology assessment; (ii) to compare two elicitation methods by eliciting the same parameters in different ways; (iii) to collect subjective preferences of the experts for the different elicitation methods used. METHODS: Twenty-seven clinical experts were invited to participate in an elicitation exercise to inform a published model-based cost-effectiveness analysis of alternative treatments for prostate cancer. Participants were individually asked to express their judgements as probability distributions using two different methods - the histogram and hybrid elicitation methods - presented in a random order. Individual distributions were mathematically aggregated across experts with and without weighting. The resulting combined distributions were used in the probabilistic analysis of the decision model and mean incremental cost-effectiveness ratios and the expected values of perfect information (EVPI) were calculated for each method, and compared with the original cost-effectiveness analysis. Scores on the ease of use of the two methods and the extent to which the probability distributions obtained from each method accurately reflected the expert's opinion were also recorded. RESULTS: Six experts completed the task. Mean ICERs from the probabilistic analysis ranged between £162,600-£175,500 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) depending on the elicitation and weighting methods used. Compared to having no information, use of expert opinion decreased decision uncertainty: the EVPI value at the £30,000 per QALY threshold decreased by 74-86 % from the original cost-effectiveness analysis. Experts indicated that the histogram method was easier to use, but attributed a perception of more accuracy to the hybrid method. CONCLUSIONS: Inclusion of expert elicitation can decrease decision uncertainty. Here, choice of method did not affect the overall cost-effectiveness conclusions, but researchers intending to use expert elicitation need to be aware of the impact different methods could have.This paper presents independent research funded by the National Institute of Health Research (NIHR) Collaboration for Leadership in Applied Health Research and Care (CLAHRC) for the South West Peninsula

Transtorno autístico e doença celíaca : sem evidências de associação

Objective: To evaluate the possible association between celiac disease (CD) and/or gluten sensitivity (GS) and autism spectrum disorder (ASD). Methods: Occurrences of CD were determined in a group of children and adolescents affected by ASD and, conversely, occurrences of ASD were assessed in a group of biopsy-proven celiac patients. To detect the possible existence of GS, the levels of antigliadin antibodies in ASD patients were assessed and compared with the levels in a group of non-celiac children. Results: The prevalence of CD or GS in ASD patients was not greater than in groups originating from the same geographical area. Similarly the prevalence of ASD was not greater than in a group of biopsy-proven CD patients. Conclusion: No statistically demonstrable association was found between CD or GS and ASD. Consequently, routine screening for CD or GS in all patients with ASD is, at this moment, neither justifed nor cost-effective. ___________________________________________________________________________________ RESUMOObjetivo: Avaliar a possível associação entre doença celíaca (DC) e/ou sensibilidade ao glúten (SG) e transtorno do espectro autista (TEA). Métodos: Ocorrências de DC foram determinadas em um grupo de crianças e adolescentes afetados pelo TEA e a ocorrência d TEA foi avaliada em um grupo de pacientes com DC comprovada por biópsia. Para detectar a possível existência de SG, foram determinados níveis de anticorpos antigliadina em pacientes com TEA e comparados ao grupo de crianças sem a doença celíaca. Resultados: A prevalência de DC ou SG não foi maior no grupo de pacientes com TEA quando comparada a grupos de indivíduos originários da mesma região geográfca. De modo similar, a prevalência do TEA não foi maior ao ser comparada ao grupo de pacientes com DC. Conclusão: Não houve associação estatisticamente demonstrável entre DC ou SG e TEA. Consequentemente, não são justifcáveis, no momento, exames de rotina para detecção de DC ou SG em pacientes com TEA

Further development of a causal model for air transport safety (CATS) : the complete model

This presentation looks at the further development of a causal model for air transport safety (CATS

Expert Status and Performance

Expert judgements are essential when time and resources are stretched or we face novel dilemmas requiring fast solutions. Good advice can save lives and large sums of money. Typically, experts are defined by their qualifications, track record and experience [1], [2]. The social expectation hypothesis argues that more highly regarded and more experienced experts will give better advice. We asked experts to predict how they will perform, and how their peers will perform, on sets of questions. The results indicate that the way experts regard each other is consistent, but unfortunately, ranks are a poor guide to actual performance. Expert advice will be more accurate if technical decisions routinely use broadly-defined expert groups, structured question protocols and feedback

Monitoring international migration flows in Europe. Towards a statistical data base combining data from different sources

The paper reviews techniques developed in demography, geography and statistics that are useful for bridging the gap between available data on international migration flows and the information required for policy making and research. The basic idea of the paper is as follows: to establish a coherent and consistent data base that contains sufficiently detailed, up-to-date and accurate information, data from several sources should be combined. That raises issues of definition and measurement, and of how to combine data from different origins properly. The issues may be tackled more easily if the statistics that are being compiled are viewed as different outcomes or manifestations of underlying stochastic processes governing migration. The link between the processes and their outcomes is described by models, the parameters of which must be estimated from the available data. That may be done within the context of socio-demographic accounting. The paper discusses the experience of the U.S. Bureau of the Census in combining migration data from several sources. It also summarizes the many efforts in Europe to establish a coherent and consistent data base on international migration. The paper was written at IIASA. It is part of the Migration Estimation Study, which is a collaborative IIASA-University of Groningen project, funded by the Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research (NWO). The project aims at developing techniques to obtain improved estimates of international migration flows by country of origin and country of destination