Fewer rainy days and more extreme rainfall by the end of the century in Southern Africa

Future changes in the structure of daily rainfall, especially the number of rainy days and the intensity of extreme events, are likely to induce major impacts on rain-fed agriculture in the tropics. In Africa this issue is of primary importance, but the agreement between climate models to simulate such descriptors of rainfall is generally poor. Here, we show that the climate models used for the fifth assessment report of IPCC simulate a marked decrease in the number of rainy days, together with a strong increase in the rainfall amounts during the 1% wettest days, by the end of the 21st century over Southern Africa. These combined changes lead to an apparent stability of seasonal totals, but are likely to alter the quality of the rainy season. These evolutions are due to the superposition of slowly-changing moisture fluxes, mainly supported by increased hygrometric capacity associated with global warming, and unchanged short-term atmospheric configurations in which extreme events are embedded. This could cause enhanced floods or droughts, stronger soil erosion and nutriment loss, questioning the sustainability of food security for the 300 million people currently living in Africa south of the Equator

What Drives the Intensification of Mesoscale Convective Systems over the West African Sahel under Climate Change?

Extreme rainfall is expected to increase under climate change, carrying potential socioeconomic risks. However, the magnitude of increase is uncertain. Over recent decades, extreme storms over the West African Sahel have increased in frequency, with increased vertical wind shear shown to be a cause. Drier midlevels, stronger cold pools, and increased storm organization have also been observed. Global models do not capture the potential effects of lower- to midtropospheric wind shear or cold pools on storm organization since they parameterize convection. Here we use the first convection-permitting simulations of African climate change to understand how changes in thermodynamics and storm dynamics affect future extreme Sahelian rainfall. The model, which simulates warming associated with representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) until the end of the twenty-first century, projects a 28% increase of the extreme rain rate of MCSs. The Sahel moisture change on average follows Clausius–Clapeyron scaling, but has regional heterogeneity. Rain rates scale with the product of time-of-storm total column water (TCW) and in-storm vertical velocity. Additionally, prestorm wind shear and convective available potential energy both modulate in-storm vertical velocity. Although wind shear affects cloud-top temperatures within our model, it has no direct correlation with precipitation rates. In our model, projected future increase in TCW is the primary explanation for increased rain rates. Finally, although colder cold pools are modeled in the future climate, we see no significant change in near-surface winds, highlighting avenues for future research on convection-permitting modeling of storm dynamics

Modeling the dynamics of glacial cycles

This article is concerned with the dynamics of glacial cycles observed in the geological record of the Pleistocene Epoch. It focuses on a conceptual model proposed by Maasch and Saltzman [J. Geophys. Res.,95, D2 (1990), pp. 1955-1963], which is based on physical arguments and emphasizes the role of atmospheric CO2 in the generation and persistence of periodic orbits (limit cycles). The model consists of three ordinary differential equations with four parameters for the anomalies of the total global ice mass, the atmospheric CO2 concentration, and the volume of the North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW). In this article, it is shown that a simplified two-dimensional symmetric version displays many of the essential features of the full model, including equilibrium states, limit cycles, their basic bifurcations, and a Bogdanov-Takens point that serves as an organizing center for the local and global dynamics. Also, symmetry breaking splits the Bogdanov-Takens point into two, with different local dynamics in their neighborhoods

Evaluation of Two Methods to Estimate and Monitor Bird Populations

Background: Effective management depends upon accurately estimating trends in abundance of bird populations over time, and in some cases estimating abundance. Two population estimation methods, double observer (DO) and double sampling (DS), have been advocated for avian population studies and the relative merits and short-comings of these methods remain an area of debate. Methodology/Principal Findings: We used simulations to evaluate the performances of these two population estimation methods under a range of realistic scenarios. For three hypothetical populations with different levels of clustering, we generated DO and DS population size estimates for a range of detection probabilities and survey proportions. Population estimates for both methods were centered on the true population size for all levels of population clustering and survey proportions when detection probabilities were greater than 20%. The DO method underestimated the population at detection probabilities less than 30 % whereas the DS method remained essentially unbiased. The coverage probability of 95 % confidence intervals for population estimates was slightly less than the nominal level for the DS method but was substantially below the nominal level for the DO method at high detection probabilities. Differences in observer detection probabilities did not affect the accuracy and precision of population estimates of the DO method. Population estimates for the DS method remained unbiased as the proportion of units intensively surveyed changed, but the variance of th

Strain engineering and one-dimensional organization of metal-insulator domains in single-crystal VO2 beams

Spatial phase inhomogeneity at the nano- to microscale is widely observed in strongly-correlated electron materials. The underlying mechanism and possibility of artificially controlling the phase inhomogeneity are still open questions of critical importance for both the phase transition physics and device applications. Lattice strain has been shown to cause the coexistence of metallic and insulating phases in the Mott insulator VO2. By continuously tuning strain over a wide range in single-crystal VO2 micro- and nanobeams, here we demonstrate the nucleation and manipulation of one-dimensionally ordered metal-insulator domain arrays along the beams. Mott transition is achieved in these beams at room temperature by active control of strain. The ability to engineer phase inhomogeneity with strain lends insight into correlated electron materials in general, and opens opportunities for designing and controlling the phase inhomogeneity of correlated electron materials for micro- and nanoscale device applications.Comment: 14 pages, 4 figures, with supplementary informatio

Validity and reliability of the Dutch translation of the VISA-P questionnaire for patellar tendinopathy

Background: The VISA-P questionnaire evaluates severity of symptoms, knee function and ability to play sports in athletes with patellar tendinopathy. This English-language self-administered brief patient outcome score was developed in Australia to monitor rehabilitation and to evaluate outcome of clinical studies. Aim of this study was to translate the questionnaire into Dutch and to study the reliability and validity of the Dutch version of the VISA-P. Methods: The questionnaire was translated into Dutch according to internationally recommended guidelines. Test-retest reliability was determined in 99 students with a time interval of 2.5 weeks. To determine discriminative validity of the Dutch VISA-P, 18 healthy students, 15 competitive volleyball players (at-risk population), 14 patients with patellar tendinopathy, 6 patients who had surgery for patellar tendinopathy, 17 patients with knee injuries other than patellar tendinopathy, and 9 patients with symptoms unrelated to their knees completed the Dutch VISA-P. Results: The Dutch VISA-P questionnaire showed satisfactory test-retest reliability (ICC = 0.74). The mean (+/- SD) VISA-P scores were 95 (+/- 9) for the healthy students, 89 (+/- 11) for the volleyball players, 58 (+/- 19) for patients with patellar tendinopathy, and 56 (+/- 21) for athletes who had surgery for patellar tendinopathy. Patients with other knee injuries or symptoms unrelated to the knee scored 62 (+/- 24) and 77 (+/- 24). Conclusion: The translated Dutch version of the VISA-P questionnaire is equivalent to its original version, has satisfactory test-retest reliability and is a valid score to evaluate symptoms, knee function and ability to play sports of Dutch athletes with patellar tendinopathy

The impact of ENSO on Southern African rainfall in CMIP5 ocean atmosphere coupled climate models

We study the ability of 24 ocean atmosphere global coupled models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) to reproduce the teleconnections between El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Southern African rainfall in austral summer using historical forced simulations, with a focus on the atmospheric dynamic associated with El Niño. Overestimations of summer rainfall occur over Southern Africa in all CMIP5 models. Abnormal westward extensions of ENSO patterns are a common feature of all CMIP5 models, while the warming of the Indian Ocean that happens during El Niño is not correctly reproduced. This could impact the teleconnection between ENSO and Southern African rainfall which is represented with mixed success in CMIP5 models. Large-scale anomalies of suppressed deep-convection over the tropical maritime continent and enhanced convection from the central to eastern Pacific are correctly simulated. However, regional biases occur above Africa and the Indian Ocean, particularly in the position of the deep convection anomalies associated with El Niño, which can lead to the wrong sign in rainfall anomalies in the northwest part of South Africa. From the near-surface to mid-troposphere, CMIP5 models underestimate the observed anomalous pattern of pressure occurring over Southern Africa that leads to dry conditions during El Niño years

The TOPGAME-study: effectiveness of extracorporeal shockwave therapy in jumping athletes with patellar tendinopathy. Design of a randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND: Patellar tendinopathy is a major problem for many athletes, especially those involved in jumping activities. Despite its frequency and negative impact on athletic careers, no evidence-based guidelines for management of this overuse injury exist. Since functional outcomes of conservative and surgical treatments remain suboptimal, new diagnostic and therapeutic strategies have to be developed and evaluated. Extracorporeal shockwave therapy (ESWT) appears to be a promising treatment in patients with chronic patellar tendinopathy. ESWT is most often applied after the known conservative treatments have failed. However, its effectiveness as primary therapy has not been studied in athletes who keep playing sports despite having patellar tendon pain. The aim of this study is to determine the effectiveness of ESWT in athletes with patellar tendinopathy who are still in training and competition. METHODS/DESIGN: The TOPGAME-study (Tendinopathy of Patella Groningen Amsterdam Maastricht ESWT) is a multicentre two-armed randomised controlled trial with blinded participants and outcome assessors, in which the effectiveness of patient-guided focussed ESWT treatment (compared to placebo ESWT) on pain reduction and recovery of function in athletes with patellar tendinopathy will be investigated. Participants are volleyball, handball and basketball players with symptoms of patellar tendinopathy for a minimum of 3 to a maximum duration of 12 months who are still able to train and compete. The intervention group receives three patient-guided focussed medium-energy density ESWT treatments without local anaesthesia at a weekly interval in the first half of the competition. The control group receives placebo treatment. The follow-up measurements take place 1, 12 and 22 weeks after the final ESWT or placebo treatment, when athletes are still in competition. Primary outcome measure is the VISA-P (Victorian Institute of Sport Assessment - patella) score. Data with regard to pain during function tests (jump tests and single-leg decline squat) and ultrasound characteristics are also collected. During the follow-up period participants also register pain, symptoms, sports participation, side effects of treatment and additional medical consumption in an internet-based diary. DISCUSSION: The TOPGAME-study is the first RCT to study the effectiveness of patient-guided ESWT in athletes with patellar tendinopathy who are still in training and competition. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Trial registration number NTR1408

Ethnic and gender specific life expectancies of the Singapore population, 1965 to 2009 - Converging, or diverging?

10.1186/1471-2458-13-1012BMC Public Health131