FARM MACHINERY INVESTMENT AND THE TAX REFORM ACT OF 1986

The Tax Reform Act of 1986 significantly changed incentives for investing. This analysis specifically examines how changes in marginal tax rates, depreciation schedules, and the investment tax credit altered the cost of capital and net investment in agriculture. A stochastic coefficients econometric methodology is used to estimate an investment function which is then used to simulate the effects of tax reform. Estimates indicated that relative to prior law, the Tax Reform Act will reduce the capital stock of farm machinery and equipment by nearly $4 billion.Agricultural Finance, Farm Management,

AGGREGATE FRUIT PRICE EQUATIONS AND CONDITIONAL PRICE FORECASTS

Demand and Price Analysis,

Finite time and asymptotic behaviour of the maximal excursion of a random walk

We evaluate the limit distribution of the maximal excursion of a random walk in any dimension for homogeneous environments and for self-similar supports under the assumption of spherical symmetry. This distribution is obtained in closed form and is an approximation of the exact distribution comparable to that obtained by real space renormalization methods. Then we focus on the early time behaviour of this quantity. The instantaneous diffusion exponent $\nu_n$ exhibits a systematic overshooting of the long time exponent. Exact results are obtained in one dimension up to third order in $n^{-1/2}$. In two dimensions, on a regular lattice and on the Sierpi\'nski gasket we find numerically that the analytic scaling $\nu_n \simeq \nu+A n^{-\nu}$ holds.Comment: 9 pages, 4 figures, accepted J. Phys.

Metabolic manipulation in chronic heart failure: study protocol for a randomised controlled trial

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Heart failure is a major cause of morbidity and mortality in society. Current medical therapy centres on neurohormonal modulation with angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors and β-blockers. There is growing evidence for the use of metabolic manipulating agents as adjunctive therapy in patients with heart failure. We aim to determine the effect of perhexiline on cardiac energetics and alterations in substrate utilisation in patients with non-ischaemic dilated cardiomyopathy.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A multi-centre, prospective, randomised double-blind, placebo-controlled trial of 50 subjects with non-ischaemic dilated cardiomyopathy recruited from University Hospital Birmingham NHS Foundation Trust and Cardiff and Vale NHS Trust. Baseline investigations include magnetic resonance spectroscopy to assess cardiac energetic status, echocardiography to assess left ventricular function and assessment of symptomatic status. Subjects are then randomised to receive 200 mg perhexiline maleate or placebo daily for 4 weeks with serum drug level monitoring. All baseline investigations will be repeated at the end of the treatment period. A subgroup of patients will undergo invasive investigations with right and left heart catheterisation to calculate respiratory quotient, and mechanical efficiency. The primary endpoint is an improvement in the phosphocreatine to adenosine triphosphate ratio at 4 weeks. Secondary end points are: i) respiratory quotient; ii) mechanical efficiency; iii) change in left ventricular (LV) function.</p> <p>Trial Registration</p> <p>ClinicalTrials.gov: <a href="http://www.clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT00841139">NCT00841139</a></p> <p>ISRCTN: <a href="http://www.controlled-trials.com/ISRCTN2887836">ISRCTN2887836</a></p

A Multicenter Evaluation of Diagnostic Tools to Define Endpoints for Programs to Eliminate Bancroftian Filariasis

Successful mass drug administration (MDA) campaigns have brought several countries near the point of Lymphatic Filariasis (LF) elimination. A diagnostic tool is needed to determine when the prevalence levels have decreased to a point that MDA campaigns can be discontinued without the threat of recrudescence. A six-country study was conducted assessing the performance of seven diagnostic tests, including tests for microfilariae (blood smear, PCR), parasite antigen (ICT, Og4C3) and antifilarial antibody (Bm14, PanLF, Urine SXP). One community survey and one school survey were performed in each country. A total of 8,513 people from the six countries participated in the study, 6,443 through community surveys and 2,070 through school surveys. Specimens from these participants were used to conduct 49,585 diagnostic tests. Each test was seen to have both positive and negative attributes, but overall, the ICT test was found to be 76% sensitive at detecting microfilaremia and 93% specific at identifying individuals negative for both microfilariae and antifilarial antibody; the Og4C3 test was 87% sensitive and 95% specific. We conclude, however, that the ICT should be the primary tool recommended for decision-making about stopping MDAs. As a point-of-care diagnostic, the ICT is relatively inexpensive, requires no laboratory equipment, has satisfactory sensitivity and specificity and can be processed in 10 minutes—qualities consistent with programmatic use. Og4C3 provides a satisfactory laboratory-based diagnostic alternative

A Methodological Framework for the Evaluation of Syndromic Surveillance Systems: A Case Study of England

Background: Syndromic surveillance complements traditional public health surveillance by collecting and analysing health indicators in near real time. The rationale of syndromic surveillance is that it may detect health threats faster than traditional surveillance systems permitting more timely, and hence potentially more effective public health action. The effectiveness of syndromic surveillance largely relies on the methods used to detect aberrations. Very few studies have evaluated the performance of syndromic surveillance systems and consequently little is known about the types of events that such systems can and cannot detect. Methods: We introduce a framework for the evaluation of syndromic surveillance systems that can be used in any setting based upon the use of simulated scenarios. For a range of scenarios this allows the time and probability of to be determined and uncertainty is fully incorporated. In addition, we demonstrate how such a framework can model the benefits of increases in the number of centres reporting syndromic data and also determine the minimum size of outbreaks that can or cannot be detected. Here, we demonstrate its utility using simulations of national influenza outbreaks and localised outbreaks of cryptosporidiosis. Results: Influenza outbreaks are consistently detected with larger outbreaks being detected in a more timely manner. Small cryptosporidiosis outbreaks (<1000 symptomatic individuals) are unlikely to be detected. We also demonstrate the advantages of having multiple syndromic data streams (e.g. emergency attendance data, telephone helpline data, general practice consultation data) as different streams are able to detect different types outbreaks with different efficacy (e.g. emergency attendance data are useful for the detection of pandemic influenza but not for outbreaks of cryptosporidiosis). We also highlight that for any one disease, the utility of data streams may vary geographically, and that the detection ability of syndromic surveillance varies seasonally (e.g. an influenza outbreak starting in July is detected sooner than one starting later in the year). We argue that our framework constitutes a useful tool for public health emergency preparedness in multiple settings. Conclusions: The proposed framework allows the exhaustive evaluation of any syndromic surveillance system and constitutes a useful tool for emergency preparedness and response

First Sagittarius A* Event Horizon Telescope Results. I. The Shadow of the Supermassive Black Hole in the Center of the Milky Way

We present the first Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) observations of Sagittarius A* (Sgr A*), the Galactic center source associated with a supermassive black hole. These observations were conducted in 2017 using a global interferometric array of eight telescopes operating at a wavelength of λ = 1.3 mm. The EHT data resolve a compact emission region with intrahour variability. A variety of imaging and modeling analyses all support an image that is dominated by a bright, thick ring with a diameter of 51.8 \ub1 2.3 μas (68% credible interval). The ring has modest azimuthal brightness asymmetry and a comparatively dim interior. Using a large suite of numerical simulations, we demonstrate that the EHT images of Sgr A* are consistent with the expected appearance of a Kerr black hole with mass ∼4 7 106 M☉, which is inferred to exist at this location based on previous infrared observations of individual stellar orbits, as well as maser proper-motion studies. Our model comparisons disfavor scenarios where the black hole is viewed at high inclination (i > 50\ub0), as well as nonspinning black holes and those with retrograde accretion disks. Our results provide direct evidence for the presence of a supermassive black hole at the center of the Milky Way, and for the first time we connect the predictions from dynamical measurements of stellar orbits on scales of 103-105 gravitational radii to event-horizon-scale images and variability. Furthermore, a comparison with the EHT results for the supermassive black hole M87* shows consistency with the predictions of general relativity spanning over three orders of magnitude in central mass