Prediction of enteric methane production and yield in sheep using a Latin America and Caribbean database

Methane (CH4) produced from enteric fermentation in ruminants has a noticeable impact on climate change. Prediction models are an alternative to current laborious and costly in vivo CH4 measurement techniques. The objectives of this study were to: (1) collate a database of individual sheep records from CH4 emission studies conducted in the Latin America and Caribbean (LAC) region; (2) identify key variables for predicting CH4 production (g/d) and CH4 yield [g/kg of dry matter intake (DMI)]; (3) develop and cross-validate these newly-developed models; and (4) compare models’ predictive ability with equations currently used to support national greenhouse gas (GHG) inventories in the LAC region. After removing outliers, the final database retained 219 individual sheep records from 11 studies, 48.2% of the original database. Models were developed using a sequential approach, by incrementally adding different variables with increasing complexity. Production and yield of CH4 were predicted by fitting mixed-effects models with a random effect of study. The predictive accuracy of fitted CH4 prediction models was evaluated using a leave-one-out cross-validation. Overall, increasing model complexity improved the predictive performance of CH4 production and yield equations. Feed intake was the most important predictor of sheep CH4 production. Our best-developed CH4 production models outperformed Tier 2 equations from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in the growing lambs and mature sheep subsets, whereas they performed slightly worse in the complete subset. Methane yield can be predicted using dietary forage content only, or with an increased complexity model combining body weight, feeding level, and dietary forage content. The use of the newly-developed models rather than IPCC Tier 2 equations can substantially improve the accuracy of GHG inventories from LAC countries

Prediction of enteric methane production and yield in dairy cattle using a Latin America and Caribbean database

Enteric methane (CH4) from ruminants is the major driver of global warming and climate change. Successful mitigation efforts entail accurate estimation of on-farm emission and prediction models can be an alternative to current laborious and costly in vivo CH4 measurement techniques. This study aimed to: (1) collate a database of individual dairy cattle CH4 emission data from studies conducted in the Latin America and Caribbean (LAC) region; (2) identify key variables for predicting CH4 production (g d−1) and yield [g kg−1 of dry matter intake (DMI)]; (3) develop and cross-validate these newly-developed models; and (4) compare models' predictive ability with equations currently used to support national greenhouse gas (GHG) inventories. A total of 42 studies including 1327 individual dairy cattle records were collated. After removing outliers, the final database retained 34 studies and 610 animal records. Production and yield of CH4 were predicted by fitting mixed-effects models with a random effect of study. Evaluation of developed models and fourteen extant equations was assessed on all-data, confined, and grazing cows subsets. Feed intake was the most important predictor of CH4 production. Our best-developed CH4 production models outperformed Tier 2 equations from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in the all-data and grazing subsets, whereas they had similar performance for confined animals. Developed CH4 production models that include milk yield can be accurate and useful when feed intake is missing. Some extant equations had similar predictive performance to our best-developed models and can be an option for predicting CH4 production from LAC dairy cows. Extant equations were not accurate in predicting CH4 yield. The use of the newly-developed models rather than extant equations based on energy conversion factors, as applied by the IPCC, can substantially improve the accuracy of GHG inventories in LAC countries

Improving the accuracy of beef cattle methane inventories in Latin America and Caribbean countries

On-farm methane (CH4) emissions need to be estimated accurately so that the mitigation effect of recommended practices can be accounted for. In the present study prediction equations for enteric CH4 have been developed in lieu of expensive animal measurement approaches. Our objectives were to: (1) compile a dataset from individual beef cattle data for the Latin America and Caribbean (LAC) region; (2) determine main predictors of CH4 emission variables; (3) develop and cross-validate prediction models according to dietary forage content (DFC); and (4) compare the predictive ability of these newly-developed models with extant equations reported in literature, including those currently used for CH4 inventories in LAC countries. After outlier's screening, 1100 beef cattle observations from 55 studies were kept in the final dataset (∼ 50 % of the original dataset). Mixed-effects models were fitted with a random effect of study. The whole dataset was split according to DFC into a subset for all-forage (DFC = 100 %), high-forage (94 % ≥ DFC ≥ 54 %), and low-forage (50 % ≥ DFC) diets. Feed intake and average daily gain (ADG) were the main predictors of CH4 emission (g d−1), whereas this was feeding level [dry matter intake (DMI) as % of body weight] for CH4 yield (g kg−1 DMI). The newly-developed models were more accurate than IPCC Tier 2 equations for all subsets. Simple and multiple regression models including ADG were accurate and a feasible option to predict CH4 emission when data on feed intake are not available. Methane yield was not well predicted by any extant equation in contrast to the newly-developed models. The present study delivered new models that may be alternatives for the IPCC Tier 2 equations to improve CH4 prediction for beef cattle in inventories of LAC countries based either on more or less readily available data.Fil: Congio, Guilhermo F.S.. Universidade de Sao Paulo; BrasilFil: Bannink, André. University of Agriculture Wageningen; Países BajosFil: Mayorga, Olga L.. Corporación Colombiana de Investigación Agropecuaria; ColombiaFil: Rodrigues, João P.P.. Universidade Federal Rural do Rio de Janeiro; BrasilFil: Bougouin, Adeline. University of California at Davis; Estados UnidosFil: Kebreab, Ermias. University of California at Davis; Estados UnidosFil: Carvalho, Paulo C.F.. Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul; BrasilFil: Berchielli, Telma T.. Universidade Estadual Paulista Julio de Mesquita Filho; BrasilFil: Mercadante, Maria E.Z.. São Paulo Agribusiness Technology Agency; BrasilFil: Valadares-Filho, Sebastião C.. Universidade Federal de Viçosa; BrasilFil: Borges, Ana L.C.C.. Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais; BrasilFil: Berndt, Alexandre. Ministerio da Agricultura Pecuaria e Abastecimento de Brasil. Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuaria; BrasilFil: Rodrigues, Paulo H.M.. Universidade de Sao Paulo; BrasilFil: Ku Vera, Juan C.. Universidad Autonoma de Yucatan (uady);Fil: Molina Botero, Isabel C.. Universidad Nacional Agraria La Molina; PerúFil: Arango, Jacobo. Centro Internacional de Agricultura Tropical; ColombiaFil: Reis, Ricardo A.. Universidade Estadual Paulista Julio de Mesquita Filho; BrasilFil: Posada Ochoa, Sandra L.. Universidad de Antioquia; ColombiaFil: Tomich, Thierry R.. Ministerio da Agricultura Pecuaria e Abastecimento de Brasil. Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuaria; BrasilFil: Castelán Ortega, Octavio A.. Universidad Autónoma del Estado de México; MéxicoFil: Marcondes, Marcos I.. Washington State University; Estados UnidosFil: Gómez, Carlos. Universidad Nacional Agraria La Molina; PerúFil: Ribeiro Filho, Henrique M.N.. Universidade Do Estado de Santa Catarina; BrasilFil: Gere, José Ignacio. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Universidad Tecnológica Nacional; ArgentinaFil: Ariza-Nieto, Claudia. Corporación Colombiana de Investigación Agropecuaria; ColombiaFil: Giraldo, Luis A.. Universidad Nacional de Colombia; ColombiaFil: Gonda, Horacio Leandro. Sveriges Lantbruksuniversitet (slu);Fil: Cerón Cucchi, María Esperanza. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria. Centro Regional Buenos Aires; ArgentinaFil: Hernández, Olegario. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria. Centro Regional Buenos Aires; ArgentinaFil: Ricci, Patricia. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria. Centro Regional Buenos Aires; ArgentinaFil: Hristov, Alexander N.. State University of Pennsylvania; Estados Unido

Improving the accuracy of beef cattle methane inventories in Latin America and Caribbean countries

On-farm methane (CH4) emissions need to be estimated accurately so that the mitigation effect of recommended practices can be accounted for. In the present study prediction equations for enteric CH4 have been developed in lieu of expensive animal measurement approaches. Our objectives were to: (1) compile a dataset from individual beef cattle data for the Latin America and Caribbean (LAC) region; (2) determine main predictors of CH4 emission variables; (3) develop and cross-validate prediction models according to dietary forage content (DFC); and (4) compare the predictive ability of these newly-developed models with extant equations reported in literature, including those currently used for CH4 inventories in LAC countries. After outlier's screening, 1100 beef cattle observations from 55 studies were kept in the final dataset (∼ 50 % of the original dataset). Mixed-effects models were fitted with a random effect of study. The whole dataset was split according to DFC into a subset for all-forage (DFC = 100 %), high-forage (94 % ≥ DFC ≥ 54 %), and low-forage (50 % ≥ DFC) diets. Feed intake and average daily gain (ADG) were the main predictors of CH4 emission (g d−1), whereas this was feeding level [dry matter intake (DMI) as % of body weight] for CH4 yield (g kg−1 DMI). The newly-developed models were more accurate than IPCC Tier 2 equations for all subsets. Simple and multiple regression models including ADG were accurate and a feasible option to predict CH4 emission when data on feed intake are not available. Methane yield was not well predicted by any extant equation in contrast to the newly-developed models. The present study delivered new models that may be alternatives for the IPCC Tier 2 equations to improve CH4 prediction for beef cattle in inventories of LAC countries based either on more or less readily available data

Improving the accuracy of beef cattle methane inventories in Latin America and Caribbean countries

On-farm methane (CH4) emissions need to be estimated accurately so that the mitigation effect of recommended practices can be accounted for. In the present study prediction equations for enteric CH4 have been developed in lieu of expensive animal measurement approaches. Our objectives were to: (1) compile a dataset from individual beef cattle data for the Latin America and Caribbean (LAC) region; (2) determine main predictors of CH4 emission variables; (3) develop and cross-validate prediction models according to dietary forage content (DFC); and (4) compare the predictive ability of these newly-developed models with extant equations reported in literature, including those currently used for CH4 inventories in LAC countries. After outlier's screening, 1100 beef cattle observations from 55 studies were kept in the final dataset (~ 50 % of the original dataset). Mixed-effects models were fitted with a random effect of study. The whole dataset was split according to DFC into a subset for all-forage (DFC = 100 %), high-forage (94 % ≥ DFC ≥ 54 %), and low-forage (50 % ≥ DFC) diets. Feed intake and average daily gain (ADG) were the main predictors of CH4 emission (g d−1), whereas this was feeding level [dry matter intake (DMI) as % of body weight] for CH4 yield (g kg−1 DMI). The newly-developed models were more accurate than IPCC Tier 2 equations for all subsets. Simple and multiple regression models including ADG were accurate and a feasible option to predict CH4 emission when data on feed intake are not available. Methane yield was not well predicted by any extant equation in contrast to the newly-developed models. The present study delivered new models that may be alternatives for the IPCC Tier 2 equations to improve CH4 prediction for beef cattle in inventories of LAC countries based either on more or less readily available data

Prediction of enteric methane emissions by sheep using an intercontinental database

Enteric methane (CH4) emissions from sheep contribute to global greenhouse gas emissions from livestock. However, as already available for dairy and beef cattle, empirical models are needed to predict CH4 emissions from sheep for accounting purposes. The objectives of this study were to: 1) collate an intercontinental database of enteric CH4 emissions from individual sheep; 2) identify the key variables for predicting enteric sheep CH4 absolute production (g/d per animal) and yield [g/kg dry matter intake (DMI)] and their respective relationships; and 3) develop and cross-validate global equations as well as the potential need for age-, diet-, or climatic region-specific equations. The refined intercontinental database included 2,135 individual animal data from 13 countries. Linear CH4 prediction models were developed by incrementally adding variables. A universal CH4 production equation using only DMI led to a root mean square prediction error (RMSPE, % of observed mean) of 25.4% and an RMSPE-standard deviation ratio (RSR) of 0.69. Universal equations that, in addition to DMI, also included body weight (DMI + BW), and organic matter digestibility (DMI + OMD + BW) improved the prediction performance further (RSR, 0.62 and 0.60), whereas diet composition variables had negligible effects. These universal equations had lower prediction error than the extant IPCC 2019 equations. Developing age-specific models for adult sheep (>1-year-old) including DMI alone (RSR = 0.66) or in combination with rumen propionate molar proportion (for research of more refined purposes) substantially improved prediction performance (RSR = 0.57) on a smaller dataset. On the contrary, for young sheep (<1-year-old), the universal models could be applied, instead of age-specific models, if DMI and BW were included. Universal models showed similar prediction performances to the diet- and region-specific models. However, optimal prediction equations led to different regression coefficients (i.e. intercepts and slopes) for universal, age-specific, diet-specific, and region-specific models with predictive implications. Equations for CH4 yield led to low prediction performances, with DMI being negatively and BW and OMD positively correlated with CH4 yield. In conclusion, predicting sheep CH4 production requires information on DMI and prediction accuracy will improve national and global inventories if separate equations for young and adult sheep are used with the additional variables BW, OMD and rumen propionate proportion. Appropriate universal equations can be used to predict CH4 production from sheep across different diets and climatic conditions

Prediction of enteric methane emissions by sheep using an intercontinental database

Enteric methane (CH4) emissions from sheep contribute to global greenhouse gas emissions from livestock. However, as already available for dairy and beef cattle, empirical models are needed to predict CH4 emissions from sheep for accounting purposes. The objectives of this study were to: 1) collate an intercontinental database of enteric CH4 emissions from individual sheep; 2) identify the key variables for predicting enteric sheep CH4 absolute production (g/d per animal) and yield [g/kg dry matter intake (DMI)] and their respective relationships; and 3) develop and cross-validate global equations as well as the potential need for age-, diet-, or climatic region-specific equations. The refined intercontinental database included 2,135 individual animal data from 13 countries. Linear CH4 prediction models were developed by incrementally adding variables. A universal CH4 production equation using only DMI led to a root mean square prediction error (RMSPE, % of observed mean) of 25.4% and an RMSPE-standard deviation ratio (RSR) of 0.69. Universal equations that, in addition to DMI, also included body weight (DMI + BW), and organic matter digestibility (DMI + OMD + BW) improved the prediction performance further (RSR, 0.62 and 0.60), whereas diet composition variables had negligible effects. These universal equations had lower prediction error than the extant IPCC 2019 equations. Developing age-specific models for adult sheep (>1-year-old) including DMI alone (RSR = 0.66) or in combination with rumen propionate molar proportion (for research of more refined purposes) substantially improved prediction performance (RSR = 0.57) on a smaller dataset. On the contrary, for young sheep (<1-year-old), the universal models could be applied, instead of age-specific models, if DMI and BW were included. Universal models showed similar prediction performances to the diet- and region-specific models. However, optimal prediction equations led to different regression coefficients (i.e. intercepts and slopes) for universal, age-specific, diet-specific, and region-specific models with predictive implications. Equations for CH4 yield led to low prediction performances, with DMI being negatively and BW and OMD positively correlated with CH4 yield. In conclusion, predicting sheep CH4 production requires information on DMI and prediction accuracy will improve national and global inventories if separate equations for young and adult sheep are used with the additional variables BW, OMD and rumen propionate proportion. Appropriate universal equations can be used to predict CH4 production from sheep across different diets and climatic conditions

Prediction of enteric methane emissions by sheep using an intercontinental database

Enteric methane (CH4) emissions from sheep contribute to global greenhouse gas emissions from livestock. However, as already available for dairy and beef cattle, empirical models are needed to predict CH4 emissions from sheep for accounting purposes. The objectives of this study were to: 1) collate an intercontinental database of enteric CH4 emissions from individual sheep; 2) identify the key variables for predicting enteric sheep CH4 absolute production (g/d per animal) and yield [g/kg dry matter intake (DMI)] and their respective relationships; and 3) develop and cross-validate global equations as well as the potential need for age-, diet-, or climatic region-specific equations. The refined intercontinental database included 2,135 individual animal data from 13 countries. Linear CH4 prediction models were developed by incrementally adding variables. A universal CH4 production equation using only DMI led to a root mean square prediction error (RMSPE, % of observed mean) of 25.4% and an RMSPE-standard deviation ratio (RSR) of 0.69. Universal equations that, in addition to DMI, also included body weight (DMI + BW), and organic matter digestibility (DMI + OMD + BW) improved the prediction performance further (RSR, 0.62 and 0.60), whereas diet composition variables had negligible effects. These universal equations had lower prediction error than the extant IPCC 2019 equations. Developing age-specific models for adult sheep (>1-year-old) including DMI alone (RSR = 0.66) or in combination with rumen propionate molar proportion (for research of more refined purposes) substantially improved prediction performance (RSR = 0.57) on a smaller dataset. On the contrary, for young sheep (<1-year-old), the universal models could be applied, instead of age-specific models, if DMI and BW were included. Universal models showed similar prediction performances to the diet- and region-specific models. However, optimal prediction equations led to different regression coefficients (i.e. intercepts and slopes) for universal, age-specific, diet-specific, and region-specific models with predictive implications. Equations for CH4 yield led to low prediction performances, with DMI being negatively and BW and OMD positively correlated with CH4 yield. In conclusion, predicting sheep CH4 production requires information on DMI and prediction accuracy will improve national and global inventories if separate equations for young and adult sheep are used with the additional variables BW, OMD and rumen propionate proportion. Appropriate universal equations can be used to predict CH4 production from sheep across different diets and climatic conditions