By how much would limiting TV food advertising reduce childhood obesity?

Background: There is evidence suggesting that food advertising causes childhood obesity. The strength of this effect is unclear. To inform decisions on whether to restrict advertising opportunities, we estimate how much of the childhood obesity prevalence is attributable to food advertising on television (TV). Methods: We constructed a mathematical simulation model to estimate the potential effects of reducing the exposure of 6- to 12-year-old US children to TV advertising for food on the prevalence of overweight and obesity. Model input was based on body measurements from NHANES 2003–04, the CDC-2000 cut-offs for weight categories, and literature that relates advertising to consumption levels and consumption to body mass. In an additional analysis we use a Delphi study to obtain experts’ estimates of the effect of advertising on consumption. Results: Based on literature findings, the model predicts that reducing the exposure to zero would decrease the average BMI by 0.38 kg/m−2 and lower the prevalence of obesity from 17.8 to 15.2% (95% uncertainty interval 14.8–15.6) for boys and from 15.9% to 13.5% (13.1–13.8) for girls. When estimates are based on expert opinion, these values are 11.0% (7.7–14.0) and 9.9% (7.2–12.4), respectively. Conclusion: This study suggests that from one in seven up to one in three obese children in the USA might not have been obese in the absence of advertising for unhealthy food on TV. Limiting the exposure of children to marketing of energy-dense food could be part of a broader effort to make children's diets healthier

Once the shovel hits the ground : Evaluating the management of complex implementation processes of public-private partnership infrastructure projects with qualitative comparative analysis

Much attention is being paid to the planning of public-private partnership (PPP) infrastructure projects. The subsequent implementation phase – when the contract has been signed and the project ‘starts rolling’ – has received less attention. However, sound agreements and good intentions in project planning can easily fail in project implementation. Implementing PPP infrastructure projects is complex, but what does this complexity entail? How are projects managed, and how do public and private partners cooperate in implementation? What are effective management strategies to achieve satisfactory outcomes? This is the fi rst set of questions addressed in this thesis. Importantly, the complexity of PPP infrastructure development imposes requirements on the evaluation methods that can be applied for studying these questions. Evaluation methods that ignore complexity do not create a realistic understanding of PPP implementation processes, with the consequence that evaluations tell us little about what works and what does not, in which contexts, and why. This hampers learning from evaluations. What are the requirements for a complexity-informed evaluation method? And how does qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) meet these requirements? This is the second set of questions addressed in this thesis

How the Dutch plan to stay dry over the next Century

Over two-thirds of the Netherlands’ economy and half its population is below sea level. The Dutch government recently set out far-reaching recommendations on how to keep the country flood-proof over the next century given the likelihood of rising sea levels and river flows. This paper explains the recommendations, which are based on a gradual upgrading of safety standards in the light of economic growth and group casualty risk, together with triggers provided by debates and data on climate change. It concludes that protection is feasible both technically and economically, costing up to \u803 billion a year, and that the approach could be useful for other low-lying areas.Hydraulic EngineeringCivil Engineering and Geoscience