Witches, Floods, and Wonder Drugs: Historical Perspectives on Risk Management

This paper reports an investigation that was undertaken to give a philosophical and historical perspective to IIASA's work on decision making in the face of uncertainty in such areas as energy, agriculture, health care, and water resources, and in particular, problems of risk management. While current risk-management methods usually apply advanced concepts of system modeling and statistical inference to societal decision making under uncertainty, it has generally been the case, as this paper points out, that risk-management problems have not revolved around obtaining the correct probabilities. Rather, the problems have important political and procedural elements, and involve how a society collects and employs imperfect and incomplete information. Clark's central point is that the answers to today's societal risk-management problems do not depend solely on the usual techniques of risk assessment; rather, they lie in developing imaginative approaches to risk management that incorporate the social decision processes that must be involved. IIASA's research amply corroborates this point

General anaesthetic and airway management practice for obstetric surgery in England: a prospective, multi-centre observational study

There are no current descriptions of general anaesthesia characteristics for obstetric surgery, despite recent changes to patient baseline characteristics and airway management guidelines. This analysis of data from the direct reporting of awareness in maternity patients' (DREAMY) study of accidental awareness during obstetric anaesthesia aimed to describe practice for obstetric general anaesthesia in England and compare with earlier surveys and best-practice recommendations. Consenting patients who received general anaesthesia for obstetric surgery in 72 hospitals from May 2017 to August 2018 were included. Baseline characteristics, airway management, anaesthetic techniques and major complications were collected. Descriptive analysis, binary logistic regression modelling and comparisons with earlier data were conducted. Data were collected from 3117 procedures, including 2554 (81.9%) caesarean deliveries. Thiopental was the induction drug in 1649 (52.9%) patients, compared with propofol in 1419 (45.5%). Suxamethonium was the neuromuscular blocking drug for tracheal intubation in 2631 (86.1%), compared with rocuronium in 367 (11.8%). Difficult tracheal intubation was reported in 1 in 19 (95%CI 1 in 16-22) and failed intubation in 1 in 312 (95%CI 1 in 169-667). Obese patients were over-represented compared with national baselines and associated with difficult, but not failed intubation. There was more evidence of change in practice for induction drugs (increased use of propofol) than neuromuscular blocking drugs (suxamethonium remains the most popular). There was evidence of improvement in practice, with increased monitoring and reversal of neuromuscular blockade (although this remains suboptimal). Despite a high risk of difficult intubation in this population, videolaryngoscopy was rarely used (1.9%)

Sequence Analysis of <i>In Vivo</i>-Expressed HIV-1 Spliced RNAs Reveals the Usage of New and Unusual Splice Sites by Viruses of Different Subtypes

<div><p>HIV-1 RNAs are generated through a complex splicing mechanism, resulting in a great diversity of transcripts, which are classified in three major categories: unspliced, singly spliced (SS), and doubly spliced (DS). Knowledge on HIV-1 RNA splicing <i>in vivo</i> and by non-subtype B viruses is scarce. Here we analyze HIV-1 RNA splice site usage in CD4⁺CD25⁺ lymphocytes from HIV-1-infected individuals through pyrosequencing. HIV-1 DS and SS RNAs were amplified by RT-PCR in 19 and 12 samples, respectively. 13,108 sequences from HIV-1 spliced RNAs, derived from viruses of five subtypes (A, B, C, F, G), were identified. In four samples, three of non-B subtypes, five 3’ splice sites (3’ss) mapping to unreported positions in the HIV-1 genome were identified. Two, designated A4i and A4j, were used in 22% and 25% of <i>rev</i> RNAs in two viruses of subtypes B and A, respectively. Given their close proximity (one or two nucleotides) to A4c and A4d, respectively, they could be viewed as variants of these sites. Three 3’ss, designated A7g, A7h, and A7i, located 20, 32, and 18 nucleotides downstream of A7, respectively, were identified in a subtype C (A7g, A7h) and a subtype G (A7i) viruses, each in around 2% of <i>nef</i> RNAs. The new splice sites or variants of splice sites were associated with the usual sequence features of 3’ss. Usage of unusual 3’ss A4d, A4e, A5a, A7a, and A7b was also detected. A4f, previously identified in two subtype C viruses, was preferentially used by <i>rev</i> RNAs of a subtype C virus. These results highlight the great diversity of <i>in vivo</i> splice site usage by HIV-1 RNAs. The fact that four of five newly identified splice sites or variants of splice sites were detected in non-subtype B viruses allows anticipating an even greater diversity of HIV-1 splice site usage than currently known.</p></div

Serum biomarkers of polyomavirus infection and risk of lung cancer in never smokers

Background: Lung cancer in never smokers is a significant contributor of cancer mortality worldwide. In this analysis, we explored the role of nine human polyomaviruses, including JC virus (JCV), BK virus (BKV) and Merkel cell virus (MCV), in lung cancer development in never smokers as there are data to support that polyomaviruses are potentially carcinogenic in the human lung. Methods: We used multiplex serology to detect serum antibodies to polyomaviruses in a nested case-control design combining lung cancer cases and controls from four cohort studies - NYU Women's Health Study (NYU-WHS), Janus Serum Bank, Shanghai Women's Health Study and Singapore Chinese Health Study (SCHS). Results: The final analyses included 511 cases and 508 controls. Seroprevalence for each polyomavirus showed significant heterogeneity by study, but overall there were no statistically significant differences between cases and controls. In total, 69.1% of the cases and 68.7% of the controls were seropositive for JCV VP1 antibody. Seropositivity for BKV was higher at 89.0% in cases and 89.8% in controls and lower for MCV at 59.3% in cases and 61.6% in controls. Similar results were obtained after adding an additional retrospective case-control study (Xuanwei study) to the analysis. Conclusions: Our results do not support the hypothesis that seropositivity for polyomaviruses is associated with increased lung cancer risk in never smokers. Future research to evaluate relationship between polyomavirus infection and lung carcinogenesis should focus more on evaluating the presence of virus or viral nucleic acids (DNA or RNA) in lung tumour samples. © 2016 Cancer Research UK. All rights reserved