Oil prices and stock returns : nonlinear links across sectors

We present evidence of an asymmetric relationship between oil prices and stock returns. The two regime multivariate Markov switching vector autoregressive (MSVAR) model allow us to capture the state shifts in the relationship between regional stock markets and sectors. Results suggest that oil price risk is significantly priced in the sample used. The impact is asymmetric with respect to market phases, and regimes have been associated with world economic, social and political events. Our study also suggests asymmetric responses of sector stock returns to oil price changes and different transmission impacts depending on the sector analyzed. There is a high causality from oil to sectors like Industrials and Oil & Gas. Companies inside the Utilities sector were more able to hedge against oil price increases between 2007 and 2012. Historical crisis events between 1992–1998 and 2003–2007 do not seem to have affected the relationship between oil and sector stock returns, given the higher probability of remaining smoother. For all sectors there seems to be a turn back to stability from 2012 onwards. Finally, investors gain more through portfolio diversification benefits built across, rather than within sectors.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Factors influencing the normalization of CD4+ T-cell count, percentage and CD4+/CD8+ T-cell ratio in HIV-infected patients on long-term suppressive antiretroviral therapy

AbstractWe evaluated factors associated with normalization of the absolute CD4+ T-cell counts, per cent CD4+ T cells and CD4+/CD8+ T-cell ratio. A multicentre observational study was carried out in patients with sustained HIV-RNA <50 copies/mL. Outcomes were: CD4-count >500/mm3 and multiple T-cell marker recovery (MTMR), defined as CD4+ T cells >500/mm3 plus %CD4 T cells >29% plus CD4+/CD8+ T-cell ratio >1. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and Cox regression analyses to predict odds for achieving outcomes were performed. Three hundred and fifty-two patients were included and followed-up for a median of 4.1 (IQR 2.1–5.9) years, 270 (76.7%) achieving a CD4+ T-cell count >500 cells/mm3 and 197 (56%) achieving MTMR. Using three separate Cox models for both outcomes we demonstrated that independent predictors were: both absolute CD4+ and CD8+ T-cell counts, %CD4+ T cells, a higher CD4+/CD8+ T-cell ratio, and age. A likelihood-ratio test showed significant improvements in fitness for the prediction of either CD4+ >500/mm3 or MTMR by multivariable analysis when the other immune markers at baseline, besides the absolute CD4+ count alone, were considered. In addition to baseline absolute CD4+ T-cell counts, pretreatment %CD4+ T cells and the CD4+/CD8+ T-cell ratio influence recovery of T-cell markers, and their consideration should influence the decision to start antiretroviral therapy. However, owing to the small sample size, further studies are needed to confirm these results in relation to clinical endpoints

Financial and monetary policy responses to oil price shocks: evidence from oil-importing and oil-exporting countries

In this study, we investigate the financial and monetary policy responses to oil price shocks using a Structural VAR framework. We distinguish between net oil-importing and net oil-exporting countries. Since the 80s, a significant number of empirical studies have been published investigating the effect of oil prices on macroeconomic and financial variables. Most of these studies though, do not make a distinction between oil-importing and oil-exporting economies. Overall, our results indicate that the level of inflation in both net oil-exporting and net oil-importing countries is significantly affected by oil price innovations. Furthermore, we find that the response of interest rates to an oil price shock depends heavily on the monetary policy regime of each country. Finally, stock markets operating in net oil-importing countries exhibit a negative response to increased oil prices. The reverse is true for the stock market of the net oil-exporting countries. We find evidence that the magnitude of stock market responses to oil price shocks is higher for the newly established and/or less liquid stock market

Participatory Approach in Decision Making Processes for Water Resources Management in the Mediterranean Basin

This paper deals with the comparative analysis of different policy options for water resources management in three south-eastern Mediterranean countries. The applied methodology follows a participatory approach throughout its implementation and is supported by the use of three different software packages dealing with water allocation budget, water quality simulation, and Multi Criteria Analysis, respectively. The paper briefly describes the general objectives of the SMART project and then presents the three local case studies, the valuation objectives and the applied methodology - developed as a general replicable framework suitable for implementation in other decision-making processes. All the steps needed for a correct implementation are therefore described. Following the conceptualisation of the problem, the choice of the appropriate indicators as well as the calculation of their weighting and value functions are detailed. The paper concludes with the results of the Multi Criteria and the related Sensitivity Analyses performed, showing how the different policy responses under consideration can be assessed and furthermore compared through case studies thanks to their relative performances. The adopted methodology was found to be an effective operational approach for bridging scientific modelling and policy making by integrating the model outputs in a conceptual framework that can be understood and utilised by non experts, thus showing concrete potential for participatory decision making

Simulating the Impact on the Local Economy of Alternative Management Scenarios for Natural Areas

This working paper estimates the impact on the local economy of the High Garda Natural Park of alternative management scenarios for the West Garda Regional Forest. The local economy is specialized in tourist services and strongly linked to the tourist presence and their level of expenditure. We wish to investigate the effects of the participative management strategy, which takes into account users preferences and the non-participative strategy, using the SAM multiplier analysis. The local SAM has been constructed considering three sectors: agriculture, tourism and a third aggregate sector including all the other activities. The resident population has been divided into two categories: residents employed in the tourist sector and the remaining resident population. The SAM analysis shows that the accounting representation of the local economy is meaningful and that the participative program, if chosen by the central regional management, would be the most desirable program also at the local level

Detecting Starting Point Bias in Dichotomous-Choice Contingent Valuation Surveys

We examine starting point bias in CV surveys with dichotomous choice payment questions and follow-ups, and double-bounded models of the WTP responses. We wish to investigate (1) the seriousness of the biases for the location and scale parameters of WTP in the presence of starting point bias; (2) whether or not these biases depend on the distribution of WTP and on the bids used; and (3) how well a commonly used diagnostic for starting point bias - a test of the null that bid set dummies entered in the right-hand side of the WTP model are jointly equal to zero - performs under various circumstances. Because starting point bias cannot be separately identified in any reliable manner from biases caused by model specification, we use simulation approaches to address this issue. Our Monte Carlo simulations suggest that the effect of ignoring starting point bias is complex and depends on the true distribution of WTP. Bid set dummies tend to soak up misspecifications in the distribution assumed by the researcher for the latent WTP, rather than capturing the presence of starting point bias. Their power in detecting starting point bias is low