European cancer mortality predictions for the year 2024 with focus on colorectal cancer

Background: We predicted cancer mortality figures for 2024 for the European Union (EU), its five most populous countries, and the UK. We focused on mortality from colorectal cancer (CRC). Materials and methods: Based on cancer death certification and population data from the World Health Organization and Eurostat databases from 1970 until the most available year, we predicted deaths and age-standardized rates (ASRs) for 2024 for all cancers and the 10 most common cancer sites. We fitted a linear regression to the most recent trend segment identified by the joinpoint model. The number of avoided deaths since the peak in 1988-2024 was estimated for all cancers and CRC. Results: We predicted 1 270 800 cancer deaths for 2024 in the EU, corresponding to ASRs of 123.2/100 000 men (-6.5% versus 2018) and 79.0/100 000 women (-4.3%). Since 1988, about 6.2 million cancer deaths have been avoided in the EU and 1.3 million in the UK. Pancreatic cancer displayed unfavorable predicted rates for both sexes (+1.6% in men and +4.0% in women) and lung cancer for women (+0.3%). The focus on CRC showed falls in mortality at all ages in the EU, by 4.8% for men and 9.5% for women since 2018. The largest declines in CRC mortality are predicted among those 70+ years old. In the UK, projected ASRs for CRC at all ages are favorable for men (-3.4% versus 2018) but not for women (+0.3%). Below age 50 years, CRC mortality showed unfavorable trends in Italy and the UK, in Poland and Spain for men, and in Germany for women. Conclusions: Predicted cancer mortality rates remain favorable in the EU and the UK, mainly in males due to earlier smoking cessation compared to females, underlining the persisting major role of tobacco on cancer mortality in Europe. Attention should be paid to the predicted increases in CRC mortality in young adults

The Effect of the Immunization Schedule and Antibody Levels (Anti-S) on the Risk of SARS-CoV-2 Infection in a Large Cohort of Healthcare Workers in Northern Italy

Given their occupational risk profile, HCWs were the first to receive anti-SARS-CoV-2 vaccination. However, breakthrough infections remained common, mainly sustained by new SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (VOCs) that rapidly spread one after another in Italy. Evidence suggests that the measured level of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies does not clearly predict the level of protection conferred by either natural infection or vaccine-induced immunization, highlighting the need for further study on the diversity in susceptibility to SARS-CoV-2 infection. The present study aimed to characterize different risk profiles for SARS-CoV-2 infection in HCWs who had recently received the booster dose, and who were classified according to their immunization profile. The very small number of workers infected during the 8 months following the primary-cycle administration represents proof of the vaccine's effectiveness against non-omicron strains. The comparison among different immunization profiles showed that hybrid immunization (vaccine plus natural infection) elicits higher antibody levels. However, hybrid immunization does not always provide better protection against reinfection, thus suggesting that the immunization profile plays a major role as a virus-host interaction modifier. Despite the high resistance to the reinfection, the peri-booster infection had a not-neglectable infection rate (5.6%), this further reinforcing the importance of preventive measures

Exploring the interactions between Helicobacter pylori (Hp) infection and other risk factors of gastric cancer: A pooled analysis in the Stomach cancer Pooling (StoP) Project

Helicobacter pylori (Hp) is crucial in gastric carcinogenesis, but infection alone is not a sufficient cause, and the interaction between Hp infection and other risk factors has not been adequately studied. We conducted a pooled analysis of seven case-control studies from the Stomach cancer Pooling (StoP) Project, comprising 1377 cases and 2470 controls, to explore the interaction among Hp infection and tobacco smoking, alcohol drinking, socioeconomic status (SES) and dietary salt intake on the risk of gastric cancer. We estimated summary odds ratios (ORs) and the corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) by multivariate unconditional logistic regression. The analysis showed no consistent interaction between Hp infection and cigarette smoking, while interaction was more than multiplicative for alcohol drinking (OR = 1.38, 95% CI: 1.07-1.77, P-interaction 0.02) and high intake of salt (OR = 2.62, 95% CI: 1.88-3.65, P-interaction = 0.04). The interaction with SES followed the multiplicative model (P = 0.49), resulting in a weakening among infected individuals of the protective effect of high SES among observed Hp-negative individuals. The interactions found were more pronounced in subjects with history of peptic ulcer. The interactions with Hp infection were stronger for cigarette smoking and dietary salt in the case of noncardia cancer, and for alcohol and SES in the case of cardia cancer. No differences were found when stratifying for histologic type. This large-scale study aimed to quantify the interaction between Hp infection and other modifiable risk factors of gastric cancer revealed that the benefit of combined Hp eradication and lifestyle modification on gastric cancer prevention may be larger than commonly appreciated.This study was supported by the Associazione Italiana per la Ricerca sul Cancro (AIRC), Project no. 21378 (Investigator Grant), and by the Italian League for the Fight Against Cancer (LILT). The authors thank the European Cancer Prevention (ECP) Organization for providing support for the StoP meetings

Determinants of anti-S immune response at 6 months after COVID-19 vaccination in a multicentric European cohort of healthcare workers – ORCHESTRA project

Background: The duration of immune response to COVID-19 vaccination is of major interest. Our aim was to analyze the determinants of anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG titer at 6 months after 2-dose vaccination in an international cohort of vaccinated healthcare workers (HCWs). Methods: We analyzed data on levels of anti-SARS-CoV-2 Spike antibodies and sociodemographic and clinical characteristics of 6,327 vaccinated HCWs from 8 centers from Germany, Italy, Romania and Slovakia. Time between 1st dose and serology ranged 150-210 days. Serological levels were log-transformed to account for the skewness of the distribution and normalized by dividing them by center-specific standard errors, obtaining standardized values. We fitted center-specific multivariate regression models to estimate the cohort-specific relative risks (RR) of an increase of 1 standard deviation of log antibody level and corresponding 95% confidence interval (CI), and finally combined them in random-effects meta-analyses. Results: A 6-month serological response was detected in 99.6% of HCWs. Female sex (RR 1.10, 95%CI 1.00-1.21), past infection (RR 2.26, 95%CI 1.73-2.95) and two vaccine doses (RR 1.50, 95%CI 1.22-1.84) predicted higher IgG titer, contrary to interval since last dose (RR for 10-day increase 0.94, 95%CI 0.91-0.97) and age (RR for 10-year increase 0.87, 95%CI 0.83-0.92). M-RNA-based vaccines (p<0.001) and heterologous vaccination (RR 2.46, 95%CI 1.87-3.24, one cohort) were associated with increased antibody levels. Conclusions: Female gender, young age, past infection, two vaccine doses, and m-RNA and heterologous vaccination predicted higher antibody level at 6 months. These results corroborate previous findings and offer valuable data for comparison with trends observed with longer follow-ups

Sleep Duration and Stress Level in the Risk of Gastric Cancer: A Pooled Analysis of Case-Control Studies in the Stomach Cancer Pooling (StoP) Project

The association between sleep and stress and cancer is underinvestigated. We evaluated these factors in association with gastric cancer (GC). Five case-control studies from the Stomach Cancer Pooling (StoP) Project were included. We calculated the odds ratios (ORs) and the corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for sleep duration and stress level in association with GC through multiple logistic regression models adjusted for several lifestyle factors. The analysis included 1293 cases and 4439 controls, 215 cardia and 919 noncardia GC, and 353 diffuse and 619 intestinal types. Sleep duration of =9 h was associated with GC (OR =1.57, 95% CI = 1.23-2.00) compared to 8 h. This was confirmed when stratifying by subsite (noncardia OR = 1.59, 95% CI = 1.22-2.08, and cardia OR = 1.63, 95% CI = 0.97-2.72) and histological type (diffuse OR = 1.65, 95% CI = 1.14-2.40 and intestinal OR = 1.24, 95% CI = 0.91-1.67). Stress was associated with GC (OR = 1.33, 95% CI = 1.18-1.50, continuous). This relationship was selectively related to noncardia GC (OR = 1.28, 95% 1.12-1.46, continuous). The risk of diffuse (OR = 1.32, 95% CI = 1.11-1.58) and intestinal type (OR = 1.23, 95% CI = 1.07-1.42) were higher when stress was reported. Results for the association between increasing level of stress and GC were heterogeneous by smoking and socioeconomic status (p for heterogeneity = 0.02 and <0.001, respectively). In conclusion, long sleep duration (=9 h) was associated with GC and its subtype categories. Stress linearly increased the risk of GC and was related to noncardia GC.The authors thank the European Cancer Prevention (ECP) Organization for providing support for the StoP Project meetings.This study was supported by the Fondazione AIRC, Associazione Italianaper la Ricerca sul Cancro, Project no. 21378 (Investigator Grant)

Inverse Association between Dietary Iron Intake and Gastric Cancer: A Pooled Analysis of Case‐Control Studies of the Stop Consortium

Background: Inconsistent findings have been reported regarding the relationship between dietary iron intake and the risk of gastric cancer (GC). Methods: We pooled data from 11 case‐control studies from the Stomach Cancer Pooling (StoP) Project. Total dietary iron intake was derived from food frequency questionnaires combined with national nutritional tables. We derived the odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for quartiles of dietary iron through multivariable unconditional logistic regression models. Secondary analyses stratified by sex, smoking status, caloric intake, anatomical subsite and histological type were performed. Results: Among 4658 cases and 12247 controls, dietary iron intake was inversely associated with GC (per quartile OR 0.88; 95% CI: 0.83–0.93). Results were similar between cardia (OR = 0.85, 95% CI = 0.77–0.94) and non‐cardia GC (OR = 0.87, 95% CI = 0.81–0.94), and for diffuse (OR = 0.79, 95% CI = 0.69–0.89) and intestinal type (OR = 0.88, 95% CI = 0.79–0.98). Iron intake exerted an independent effect from that of smoking and salt intake. Additional adjustment by meat and fruit/vegetable intake did not alter the results. Conclusions: Dietary iron is inversely related to GC, with no difference by subsite or histological type. While the results should be interpreted with caution, they provide evidence against a direct effect of iron in gastric carcinogenesis

Inverse Association between Dietary Iron Intake and Gastric Cancer: A Pooled Analysis of Case‐Control Studies of the Stop Consortium

Background: Inconsistent findings have been reported regarding the relationship between dietary iron intake and the risk of gastric cancer (GC). Methods: We pooled data from 11 case‐control studies from the Stomach Cancer Pooling (StoP) Project. Total dietary iron intake was derived from food frequency questionnaires combined with national nutritional tables. We derived the odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for quartiles of dietary iron through multivariable unconditional logistic regression models. Secondary analyses stratified by sex, smoking status, caloric intake, anatomical subsite and histological type were performed. Results: Among 4658 cases and 12247 controls, dietary iron intake was inversely associated with GC (per quartile OR 0.88; 95% CI: 0.83–0.93). Results were similar between cardia (OR = 0.85, 95% CI = 0.77–0.94) and non‐cardia GC (OR = 0.87, 95% CI = 0.81–0.94), and for diffuse (OR = 0.79, 95% CI = 0.69–0.89) and intestinal type (OR = 0.88, 95% CI = 0.79–0.98). Iron intake exerted an independent effect from that of smoking and salt intake. Additional adjustment by meat and fruit/vegetable intake did not alter the results. Conclusions: Dietary iron is inversely related to GC, with no difference by subsite or histological type. While the results should be interpreted with caution, they provide evidence against a direct effect of iron in gastric carcinogenesis. © 2022 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.This study was supported by the Fondazione AIRC per la Ricerca sul Cancro, Project no. 21378 (Investigator Grant). The Unidade de Investigação em Epidemiologia—Instituto de Saúde Pública da Universidade do Porto (EPIUnit; UIDB/04750/2020) and the Laboratório para a Investigação Integrativa e Translacional em Saúde Populacional (ITR; LA/P/0064/2020) were funded by the Foundation for Science and Technology—FCT (Portuguese Ministry of Science, Technology and Higher Education). SM was supported by the project “NEON‐PC—Neuro‐oncological complications of prostate cancer: longitudinal study of cognitive decline” (POCI‐01‐0145‐FEDER‐032358; ref. PTDC/SAU‐EPI/32358/2017), which is funded by FEDER through the Operational Programme competitiveness and Internationalization, and national funding from FCT and the EPIUnit—Junior Research—Prog Financing (UIDP/04750/2020). The authors thank the European Cancer Prevention (ECP) Organization for providing support for the StoP Project meetings and all MCC‐Spain study collaborators (CIBERESP, ISCIII, ISGlobal, ICO, University of Huelva, University of Oviedo, University of Cantabria, ibs.Granada, Instituto Salud Pública de Navarra, FISABIO, Murcia Regional Health Authority and cols)

The protective effect of dietary folate intake on gastric cancer is modified by alcohol consumption: A pooled analysis of the StoP Consortium

Dietary folate intake has been identified as a potentially modifiable factor of gastric cancer (GC) risk, although the evidence is still inconsistent. We evaluate the association between dietary folate intake and the risk of GC as well as the potential modification effect of alcohol consumption. We pooled data for 2829 histologically confirmed GC cases and 8141 controls from 11 case–control studies from the international Stomach Cancer Pooling Consortium. Dietary folate intake was estimated using food frequency questionnaires. We used linear mixed models with random intercepts for each study to calculate adjusted odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI). Higher folate intake was associated with a lower risk of GC, although this association was not observed among participants who consumed >2.0 alcoholic drinks/day. The OR for the highest quartile of folate intake, compared with the lowest quartile, was 0.78 (95% CI, 0.67–0.90, P-trend = 0.0002). The OR per each quartile increment was 0.92 (95% CI, 0.87–0.96) and, per every 100 μg/day of folate intake, was 0.89 (95% CI, 0.84–0.95). There was a significant interaction between folate intake and alcohol consumption (P-interaction = 0.02). The lower risk of GC associated with higher folate intake was not observed in participants who consumed >2.0 drinks per day, ORQ4v Q1 = 1.15 (95% CI, 0.85–1.56), and the OR100 μg/day = 1.02 (95% CI, 0.92–1.15). Our study supports a beneficial effect of folate intake on GC risk, although the consumption of >2.0 alcoholic drinks/day counteracts this beneficial effect. © 2024 The Authors. International Journal of Cancer published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of UICC.This study was funded by the Associazione Italiana per la Ricerca sul Cancro (Project number 21378, Investigator Grant). NL and SM are funded under the Unidade de Investigação em Epidemiologia – Instituto de Saúde Pública da Universidade do Porto (EPIUnit; UIDB/04750/2020) financed by national funds from the Foundation for Science and Technology – FCT (Portuguese Ministry of Science, Technology and Higher Education) and the Laboratório para a Investigação Integrativa e Translacional em Saúde Populacional (ITR; LA/P/0064/2020). SM also received funding under the scope of the project “NEON-PC – Neuro-oncological complications of prostate cancer: longitudinal study of cognitive decline” (POCI-01-0145-FEDER-032358; Ref. PTDC/SAU-EPI/32358/2017) funded by FEDER through the Operational Program Competitiveness and Internationalization, and national funding from FCT, and the EPIUnit – Junior Research – Prog Financing (UIDP/04750/2020). This research was supported in part by the Intramural Research Program of the US National Cancer Institute. The study was also supported by the Italian Ministry of Health through the project “Interaction of genomic and dietary aspects in gastric cancer risk: the global StoP project” (Grant number RF-2021-12373951). This research was funded by the AICO/2021/347 grants for consolidated research groups from the Generalitat Valenciana. MHW and CSR also received funding from National Institutes of Health (ZIA CP010212 - Molecular mechanisms of infection-related cancer). [Correction added on 29 May 2024, after first online publication: The funding information has been updated.]

The burden of breast, cervical, and colon and rectum cancer in the Balkan countries, 1990–2019 and forecast to 2030.

Background Despite effective prevention and control strategies, in countries of the Balkan region, cancers are the second leading cause of mortality, closely following circulatory system diseases. Objective To describe trends in the burden of breast, cervical, and colon and rectum cancer in the Balkan region and per country between 1990 and 2019, including a forecast to 2030. Methods We described the 2019 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) estimates for breast, cervical, and colon and rectum cancers in eleven Balkan countries over the period 1990–2019, including incidence, years lived with disability (YLD), years of life lost (YLL), and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rates per 100,000 population and accompanied 95% uncertainty interval. With the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average, we forecasted these rates per country up to 2030. Results In the Balkan region, the highest incidence and DALYs rates in the study period were for colon and rectum, and breast cancers. Over the study period, the DALYs rates for breast cancer per 100,000 population were the highest in Serbia (reaching 670.84 in 2019) but the lowest in Albania (reaching 271.24 in 2019). In 2019, the highest incidence of breast cancer (85 /100,000) and highest YLD rate (64 /100,000) were observed in Greece. Romania had the highest incidence rates, YLD rates, DALY rates, and YLL rates of cervical cancer, with respective 20.59%, 23.39% 4.00%, and 3.47% increases for the 1990/2019 period, and the highest forecasted burden for cervical cancer in 2030. The highest incidence rates, YLD rates and DALY rates of colon and rectum cancers were continuously recorded in Croatia (an increase of 130.75%, 48.23%, and 63.28%, respectively), while the highest YLL rates were in Bulgaria (an increase of 63.85%). The YLL rates due to colon and rectum cancers are forecasted to progress by 2030 in all Balkan countries. Conclusion As most of the DALYs burden for breast, cervical, and colon and rectum cancer is due to premature mortality, the numerous country-specific barriers to cancer early detection and quality and care continuum should be a public priority of multi-stakeholder collaboration in the Balkan region

Cancers Attributable to Modifiable Risk Factors: A Road Map for Prevention

The implementation of primary and secondary preventive strategies is based on the evidence generated by cancer epidemiology, where the identification of risk factors and the description of their prevalence are fundamental to derive estimates on the burden of cancer from different etiologies, typically expressed as the population attributable fraction, which corresponds to the proportion of a cancer that may be prevented by controlling a given risk factor. However, even when cancer finds its etiology in modifiable factors, its prevention through the control of those factors is not always feasible, or it remains suboptimal despite the possibility of reducing the burden. We reviewed selected associations between modifiable risk factors and cancer, including tobacco smoking, occupational exposures, infections, air pollution, alcohol, and diet and obesity, and illustrated examples of both successes and failures in cancer control, underlying how current understanding of the avoidable causes of cancer is incomplete